Shopping for a Closer

It's more difficult than it looks

The Jays fandom has been asking for the Jays to seek help in getting a closer at the trade deadline for a team that may be competing for the post season. Let's look past the fact that the Jays have had only 8 end-of-game save opportunities all season which projects the Jays to have perhaps 20 of these opportunities in the season. The Jays either win by a bunch of runs (20 of their wins) or come back from a blown save. The 8 saves recorded thus far have been of the multi-run variety save for the bullpen's gem on Saturday at Boston.

Let's also look past the fact that during the season, only 2 or 3 closers are moved. This is because the closer is a coveted position not to be given up if the team is close to competing, and with the double wildcard, there are many more teams that find themselves closer to a wild card at the trade deadline. And, if a team is not competing, there is a good chance that the closer on that team might be a big part of that.

Still, let's say that the Jays are able to shop for a closer. Who is available? There are 26 closers in baseball who are projecting to have a 20+ save season.

Let's look at these:

Glen Perkins - MIN - 21 saves
Trevor Rosenthal - STL - 21 saves
Mark Melancon - PIT - 20 saves
Drew Storen - WSN - 19 saves
Huston Street - LAA - 19 saves
Santiago Casilla - SFG - 18 saves
Juerys Familia - NYM - 18 saves
Zach Britton - BAL - 17 saves
Andrew Miller - NYY - 17 saves
Jason Grilli - ATL - 16 saves
Craig Kimbrel - SDP - 16 saves
Joakim Soria - DET - 16 saves
Brad Boxberger - TBR - 15 saves
Luke Gregerson - HOU - 15 saves
Cody Allen - CLE - 14 saves
Fernando Rodney - SEA - 14 saves
Aroldis Chapman - CIN - 13 saves
David Robertson - CHW - 13 saves
Francisco Rodriguez - MIL - 13 saves
Koki Uehara - BOS - 13 saves
Jonathan Papelbon - PHI - 12 saves
John Axford - COL - 11 saves
Greg Holland - KCR - 11 saves
Hector Rondon - CHC - 11 saves
Tyler Clippard - OAK - 9 saves
Kenley Janson - LAD - 8 saves

Now let's start eliminating first by taking away teams that will likely be  competing for a wild card spot at the trade deadline. With about 40 games to go before the deadline, there is alot of moving going on but this is June 15th and we can only speculate.

In the AL, assume that Boston, the White Sox, Cleveland, Seattle and Oakland are out. In the NL, assume that the Phillies, Marlins, Brewers, Reds, and Rockies are out. That leaves 9 closers available:

Cody Allen - CLE - 14 saves - 2nd year
Fernando Rodney - SEA - 14 saves - 7th year
Aroldis Chapman - CIN - 13 saves - 4th year
David Robertson - CHW - 13 saves - 2nd year
Francisco Rodriguez - MIL - 13 saves - 11th year
Koki Uehara - BOS - 13 saves - 3rd year
Jonathan Papelbon - PHI - 12 saves - 10th year
John Axford - COL - 11 saves - 1st year
Tyler Clippard - OAK - 9 saves - 1st year

We should also eliminate closers who are "1st year closers" as their arms are not the most reliable. About 1/2 of the closers (those who have more than 20 saves a season) only last as closers for 1 or 2 years before they fizzle out. Indeed, of the 253 closers identified over the last 37 years (since 1977), 89 were 1 year closers, 38 were 2 year closers, with the rest being over that time.

The Jays have been burned by hiring short term closers. One remembers Sergo Santos. Trading for a closer with pedigree makes alot of sense. That is why I would avoid Clippard and Axford - they may be drops in the pan, though there are reports of the Jays looking at Clippard.

Finally, let's look at the contracts of the final 7 and look at them 1 by 1.

Cody Allen - CLE - under the Indians control until 2018 and the league minimum salary, the concern is his inflated ERA (4.07) and WHIP of 1.463 despite having a FIP of 2.47 and 14 saves. I think it would take alot for the Indians to give up this young man and force the team to find another closer from its bullpen or roster of farm talent.

Aroldis Chapman - CIN - in his 4th year of stellar closing for the Reds, he earns a salary of 8 million this year and is under team control next year. While his numbers are somewhat inflated this year with 18 walks (he had 24 total last year) and about .8 hits per outing (much higher than last year) he has managed to get out of jams and keep his ERA down. He would be under team control next year. There has been speculation on this trade.

Francisco Rodriguez - MIL is intriguing. A seasoned closer, he earns a salary of 3.5 million this year, 5.5 the next and a team option in 2017. He seems to have regained his form this year and last for the Brewers. His HR/9 last year was alarming at 1.9/9 which might not translate well in Rogers Center, but with a team that is struggling, team control, and a backloaded salary, this might be a perfect place for Rodriguez to come if the Brewers are still struggling at the deadline. His numbers this year so far are stellar, so it might cost a premium.

Fernando Rodney - SEA is in this last year of his contract and would be a good rental option for the Jays, if he is pitching well, which he IS NOT. In his last 12 outings, he has an ERA of 9 and an opposing OPS of over 1. Unless he turns things around quickly, he would have no viability coming to Toronto. I think the Jays might look at him if he can straighten things out.

David Robertson - CHW is in his first year of a 4 year / 46 million contract and the Jays (nor any other club) will not bite at that contract.

Koji Uehara - BOS - he's a Red Sox, and it's unlikely that the Jays would entertain a trade within the division and at 9 million a year with not much closing experience, very expensive.

Jonathan Papelbon - PHI - at 13 million plus a 13 million vesting option for 2016 which he is on track to earn, this player is also very expensive even with his WHIP at 1 and an ERA of 1.05.

So for me, the shopping list is down to 3:

• Francisco Rodriguez - home run / 9 is too high, but good team control and affordable with a backloaded salary which allows Rogers to rent another arm or starter if needed.
• Aroldis Chapman - on the expensive side but would be a very good acquisition.
• Cody Allen - would be a very expensive acquisition from a player standpoint given his salary. The Jays likely would need to send alot of AAA / AA talent to compensate and I doubt that the Indians are even willing to entertain a trade for him.

Now, other teams who are competing and need a closer are going to be thinking the exact same thing. And with such a short shopping list, these players will be in very high demand. And Toronto's need for a closer when they are scoring so many runs may not be there.

It's easy to say "find someone", especially in the AL East when we remember Papelbon and Rivera and more recently Fernano Rodney and Jim Johnson. But excellent and experienced closers are expensive and hard to find. Only a few are traded each year and they are usually sold at a premium.

Blowing it in the bullpen

Jays Bullpen really not good under pressure

I know it sounds like I am stating the obvious. The Jays have now had 10 blown saves, but if we take a look at the numbers closely, we can see exactly how the Jays are losing leads late in the game.

A save opportunity is when a pitcher enters the game in a save situation. To be clear, a save situation is when a pitcher enters the game in the 7th inning or later with a lead of three runs or less or the potential tying run is on deck, at bat, or on base.

For this purpose, I am going to include games where the Jays were tied going into the inning to show how games are lost. I am not including starting pitchers -- only relievers.

• In 8 innings late where the game was tied at the start of the inning, the Jays have let in runs in 4 of those 8 innings. 

• When the Jays start an inning up by one run: - 3 successful holds (the last successful hold was April 12 - Loup held a one run lead on April 27, only to be blown by Osuna in the 8th) - 7 blown saves - none of these in the 9th inning. 

In all situations where the Jays are tied or up by one run in the 9th, the Jays relief allows runs. All of the closer saves have been recorded with leads of 2 (3) or 3 (3) runs. Read this again, the Jays have yet to record a one-run save.

• When the Jays start an inning up by two runs: - 6 successful holds - 2 blown saves (both belonging to Loup) 

•  When the Jays start an inning up by three runs: - 10 successful holds - nothing blown 

So, the conclusion here is pretty troubling. The Jays when holding a one run lead are 30% likely to hold that lead (3 for 10). That is pretty awful.

The detailed stats on baseball reference are just as awful. The Jays save percentage at 6 for 16 is 37.5%; the league average is 72%. In save situations (not including today's game) opponents have an OPS of .875 (.300 / .366 / .509), an ERA of 6.59 and a WHIP of 1.537. The league average is 1.104.

So, despite the fact that when you look at Reliever stats overall, it comes as a complete surprise then that the Jays pen is 5th in OPS overall at .670, 5th in BA at .225, 4th in WHIP and 11th in ERA.

So, the news is that if the Jays are tied or up by one run late in games, the bullpen has given up the lead. This is why fans get nervous when they see the bullpen show up in a close or tie game and why the twitterverse erupts in rage -- the bullpen pitches terribly. In fact, the last time the Jays bullpen DID NOT give up runs in a tie situation or one run lead was Osuna back on April 12. Here is the detail of all 11 games since where the Jays bullpen entered the game tied or with a one run lead since. There are NO games where the Jays were able to hold a tie game or one run lead.

April 14 - Castro enters game in 8th inning in a 2-2 tie, gives up a crappy bunt single. Sousa steals 2nd and advances to 3rd on a throwing error. SF brings him home. Jays lose 3-2 to Tampa.

April 17 - Cecil enters the game in the 8th inning in a 5-5 tie with the Braves, gives up a home run in the 2nd pitch, allows two more runs. Jays lose 8-7.

April 18 - Castro enters the game to save in the 9th inning. Gives up a home run to the 1st batter he faces. In a bright spot, Cecil hold the Braves in the top of the 10th and Donaldson hits a walk-off home run.

April 25 - With the Jays up 2-1 on the Rays in the bottom of the 8th, with two out, Osuna gives up a single. Cecil then gives up another single. Castro comes in, gives up 2 doubles. Jays lose 4-2.

April 27 - at Boston, with the Jays up 5-4, Osuna enters the game in the bottom of the 8th, gives up two singles, a wild pitch, and a sacrifice fly to blow the save. Miguel Castro enters the 9th in a tie game and gives up two singles, a wild pitch, and another single to blow the game. RedSox win 6-5.

May 20 - in the top of the 7th, with Hutch struggling against the Angels, Steve Delabar comes in inheriting runners on 1st and 2nd with 2 out, Jays up 3-2.  He throws a wild pitch on an 0-1 count and then gives up a two run double. Jays lose 4-3.

May 26 - vs the White Sox, with the Jays up 7-6 in the top of the 8th and a hold by Osuna in the 7th, Hendriks gives up three runs to go down by 2 runs. A dramatic walk off home run by Donaldson in the bottom of the 9th vs David Roberston gives the Jays the win.

May 27 - vs the Sox again, with a 3-3 tie after a Jays comeback, Osuna gives up two. Jays lose 5-3 in 10.

May 30 - at Minnesota, tied 2-2 in the bottom of the 7th, Loup gives up a triple (likely over the head of Cotabello or Valencia). Jays lose 3-2.

May 31 - at the Twins, up 5-4 in the bottom of the 7th, Osuna out for his 2nd inning of relief. A Jose Reyes error followed by a single leads to a Tommy Hunter double scoring two. Twins win 6-5.

June 7 - home to Houston, up 3-2, Bo Schultz gives up 4. The Jays do manage to win this one again in walk off style winning 7-6 in a very lucky bottom of the 9th.

June 9 - Home to Miami, tied 2-2. Osuna comes on and gives up a homer to Stanton. Jays WIN 4-3 on another walk off HR by Edwin. Holy crap.

New season, same team?

Disappointment will be less as our expectations are much lower

The Toronto Blue Jays open their season tomorrow at Tampa before the Yankees come to town this weekend. I've been away for five months and it's great that baseball is back. I managed to listen to and watch some of the spring training games looking for something different. I watched the off-season moves, hoping that Alex Anthopolous and Rogers would come up with some scratch to sign a big name pitcher for 2014. 

So, what I see is the same players (save Navarro, thank God) on the same team using the same techniques to win and lose games. 

The exception this year is that our expectations were so high this year, while this year I think the fan base will be happy with anything over .500. Certainly, Rogers Media has toned down the rhetoric for this year, and that's a good thing. I think the fan base at Rogers Centre will remain steady, making no gains on 2013, while the fan base around the country will remain tied to the Blue Jays' win-loss record, with some extra interest as it looks like only one Canadian team will make the NHL playoffs.

Let's take a look at this year's roster and point out some of the questionable roster moves for opening day. This article will focus on the hitters, while the next focuses on the pitching.

Overall, this team should be hitting better than they did last year, which was absolutely abysmal. Last year featured some terrible offensive outages due to really poor seasons by Maicer, JP, and Bonifacio, bad streaks by Jose, Colby, Lind, and Lawrie compounded by injuries by most everyone on the offence, leaving them with inferior replacements like Kawasaki, Thole/Blanco, Gose, and Pillar. 

Once again, the key to this year's performance offensively will be consistency and injury avoidance. While the addition of Navarro might help the offensive performance as will a return of Melky to his former self, the team is now lacking formidable speed with the departures of Emilio (who could never get on base anyway) and Rajai Davis (a true weapon), and Anthony Gose sitting in AAA. This means that the team must attempt to move runners forward by ways of the bat. And with a three man bench and no one on the bench particularly good, late game situational hitting will be lacking.

This leads me to believe that while the numbers overall will be better, run production will suffer.

Here's my player by player analysis.

C - Dioner Navarro with a .300 / .465 / .492 slash last year and an all star 2008 (with Tampa) under his belt, this guy brings veteran experience behind the plate, which is what the pitching staff and John Gibbons needs defensively. Offensively, he comes with a caveat, in that there were years where he suffered at the plate. For example, after his all-star year with the Rays where he hit .295, he hit just .218 in the following year. So, it is unclear which Dioner we are going to get this year. Still, it's a huge improvement over the train wreck which was JP Arencibia last year. He seemed to have some power last year too, hitting 13 homers in 266 plate appearance. In Rogers Centre, playing full-time, he might have the potential to hit 20 dingers. I also like the fact that he came from Tampa, a Blue Jays rival, with some knowledge of the pitching system there.

C - Josh Thole is here to catch RA Dickey, and will figure into games only if he manages to crack .200. He was quite the batting disappointment last year, but I think part of that was the fact that he was only in games where the opposing pitcher was the team's ace (in that RA is the Blue Jays ace, and aces tend to play each other).

I am surprised that the Jays chose Thole over Kratz as the backup catcher. In the end, I think the Jays traded offense for the ability to catch and hopes that Thole can have a little bit of offense one game of five. I think it's a very tall order to push Thole into action one day out of five, and I would like to see the Jays play him in two of five games, especially if his offense shows a bit of spark.

1B/DH - Adam Lind has had an excellent spring, with Buck quoting that he was looking like the Lind of 2009. Well with the goatee, he definitely looks like the Dr. Hyde version of Lind in 2013. The issue with Lind always is his back health and his ability to stay consistent. If he can remain warm for 2014 and Gibbons uses him in every day situations (against LHP and RHP) and gives him breaks so that he can rest (using him as DH, sitting him from time to time), Lind can relive his glory from 2009.

1B/DH - Edwin Encarnacion, for a Jay, is Mr. Consistency. From oblivion three years ago when the Jays let him go to Oakland (only to be reclaimed), the former "E5" has turned into a decent first baseman sporting a .275 / .364 / .517 line over the past three years with not much in the way of injuries.

At issue here are the away National league games (against Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati) where both Edwin and Adam can't play.

2B - Ryan Goins -- The Blue Jays draftee of 2009 is the starting 2B, sporting a paltry .177 batting average over spring training. Last year, in his MLB debut, he hit .252 / .264 / .345 over 121 plate appearances, with 2 walks and 28 strikeouts. He is supposed to be excellent defensively.

I seriously question the decision of putting in Goins over Kawasaki. Now, one could point out Muni's slash last year (.229 / .326 / .308) as being worse than Goins, but that OBP is meaningful. Muni drew a heck of alot more of Pitches per Plate Appearance than pretty much anyone else in the majors. He is extremely popular with the fan base, and he is defensively capable all around the infield. One could argue that this year represents that natural progression for Goins, and that it's his time to prove himself at the MLB level. But the fan base loves Muni. He is JAPANESE!!!

The good news is that if Ryan doesn't prove himself, Muni will be on that bus from Buffalo.

SS - Jose Reyes, while defensively average, Jose is a necessary and vital piece of the Jays offense this year. Our hope is that his hamstring doesn't have any issue. His injury last year was not related to his hamstring. I hope that he improves on his already excellent .296/.353/.427 line from last year.

3B - Brett Lawrie -- We were hoping collectively that LAST year would have been the year for Brett, and looking that the downward trend year over year, we find that we have been making excuses for this man's offensive performance (at .254/.315/.397) last year. He had a terrible spring, got injured, tried 2B (stupid idea), and finally broke out after the all star break, where he had a string of 42 games hitting .324 / .384 / .507 before having a meh September. Defensively, he's a gem. If he stays healthy, it will be HIS year to show MLB his star quality. He becomes arbitration eligible next year, and the Jays are going to have to show him the money if he has a great year, which we all hopes he has. He seems to have matured and slowed down his waggle at home plate and seems to have more control.

UF - Maicer Izturis is the team's utility infielder and after a crappy year (his worst year offensively in MLB), we are all hoping that he does better. When he had regular play with Brett's injury, he managed to hit .309 / .351 / .397 over 150 plate appearance, which was pretty good. But he started off terribly and ended the season terribly as well, batting just .167 for the rest of the season over 103 plate appearances. Defensively, he is okay. 

LF - Melky Cabrera, with an undiagnosed tumour in his back and an absolute defensive liability in LF last year, the man still managed to hit .279 last year with no power. This year, he looks absolutely white hot, hitting .400 in spring training. We can only hope that Melky is the Melky of 2011 this year. We shall see if the turf in LF doesn't hurt him.

CF - Colby Rasmus was hot and cold last year, pretty much like the rest of the club, and with a strikeout rate near 30% and a propensity to look foolish against LHP, he can be a frustrating player to watch. Still, overall, he had an excellent year in 2013, batting .276 / .338 / .501. He demonstrates power. Defensively, he has moments where he is excellent, and moments of complete lapses. I'm looking forward to seeing him perform this year, and hopes that he has a consistently good year with a measure of better plate discipline.

RF - Jose Bautista has had an excellent spring, and that wrist and his violent swing hopefully will not lead to injury as it has over the last couple of years. Still, a HR every 15 or so plate appearances is not a bad thing, and his arm and defence is most helpful.

OF - Moises Sierra had an excellent 2013 in limited action as Jose's replacement last September and represents a capable 4th OF for the Jays and represents the good choice versus Gose and Pillar.

The Outsiders: Anthony Gose, Kevin Pillar, Muni Kawasaki and Kratz are the four outsiders looking in. I see all four of them in Jays uniforms at some point this year.

Next: the Pitchers.

Okay. They lost one. So what.

The best teams in baseball win games, the worst teams do too.

When you think about the best teams in baseball, you find that a 1st place team is only going win about 100 games in a season at best -- 108 is really really good. Conversely, the worst teams in baseball might get away with 60 wins -- 54 is really really bad.

So, how do bad teams win and great teams lose games?

Dumb luck

Sometimes, teams win games due to dumb luck: a caught line drive by a fielder in a exactly the right place can save two runs while a blooper to left field can score two runs, which is precisely what happened to the Jays against Colorado on June 17th. In the top of the 8th inning, Colorado had runners at 2nd and 3rd with one out and Lind made a wonderful play to catch a smoked line drive. In the bottom half of that inning, Maicer hit a bloop single to short left which plated Davis and Colby. And that's the difference between a W and a L.

Pitching miscues

You can't expect every Jays starter to go out there and have a quality start every time out. They are going to make mistakes because it is EXTREMELY difficult to pitch well every time you are on the mound. Pitching is extremely mental, but it is physical too. Sometimes your fastball cannot work because you can't connect the mind to the body. That's what happened to Esmil last night, leaving him only with a working breaking ball. It happens.

Hitting outages

What is supposed to happen when your pitching doesn't work is your batting is supposed to pick it up for you. But the bats will run into a pitcher sometimes who stymie you, or you run into a part of the lineup who is just not hitting well (Cabrera and Bautista). If Edwin and Lind have an off night as well then it becomes extremely difficult to manufacture and score runs.

Putting it all together

The fact is that the combination of the three leads to a perfectly playing team to lose 1 game of 3. What happens between winning between 1 and 2 games of 3 is a function of the team's true skill. In the case of the Blue Jays, you are looking at a team with below average infield and LF defense, an unexpectedly overperforming bullpen, an unexpectently underperforming starting rotation, and inconsistency (save Lind and Edwin) in the starting lineup. This leads to a .500 team that is susceptible to streaks.

Bringing back Lawrie and Reyes (and yes, sending down Kawasaki) will improve the IF defence dramatically and should improve the offense too. Putting Edwin at 3rd and letting Cabrera DH for a few days in a row will improve his legs so that he can play better defensively in LF and let Rajai get some playing time. The time to do this (give Cabrera's legs some rest) is now before Lawrie gets back.

The starting rotation is what it is. Lately they've been very good. RA Dickey is not going to have a good season and there's no improvement. Josh Johnson I predict will be on fire as he tries to get a monster contract. Mark Buehrle is fine. Esmil Rogers pitched only  75 innings last year and he's only good for about 8 more starts berore he will be pulled. Chien-Ming Wang has been great so far, but we'll see how he does in Boston against his AL East rivals who know him well. By that time (after the All-Star break), reinforcements in Brandon Morrow and JA Happ should be ready.

And offensively, the players need to get on a roll collectively. Bautista has been very streaky, as has Cabrera, Arencibia and Rasmus. Adding Reyes back to the front of the lineup will increase scoring opportunities and speed at the start of the lineup.

Predictions

The Jays have now shown that they are a good team. Defense has improved as Bonfacio, Reyes, and Izturis get used to the turf. Offense is very very good on most nights and will improve with the return of Reyes and then Lawrie. Starting pitching will be an issue for RA Dickey only. The bullpen I think will continue to shine. In short, if the team can score 5 runs a game and the starting pitching can leave the team with a lead after 6 innings this team will win alot of games, many more than they will lose.

My prediction now is that the playoff race for 2nd place in the AL East goes down to the wire, with the Jays fighting it out for the 2nd wild card spot between any one of the four AL east teams, with about 92 wins. The last 15 games that the Jays play are against AL East contenders and I think it's these games that will determine the playoff picture in the AL East. Look for Texas or Oakland to take a wild card spot with whoever finishes in 2nd in the AL East to take the 2nd wild card.

Munenori, we hardly knew ya!

Tomorrow will be likely be Munenori's last game at the MLB level for a while, as Jose Reyes returns to the lineup 

How did the .229 / .341 / .333 hitter win the hearts of Blue Jays fans?

Munenori Kawasaki, probably about to take a bow
(Tim Sharp/Reuters)

.

His ethic and love for the game

First, it was his ethic towards the game. Flaunted by Sportsnet and its own ownership, Rogers made this guy special. His crazy handstands before the game, the talk about his work ethic, his bows to the other players and to fans, playing catch with fans. his stutter-steal. His spirit is just infectuous. His crazy "I am Japanese" yell in the post game interview after his walk-off, and his curtain call to the crowd after his only home run. Players and fans love him.

He made the fact that the Jays were sucking for a while tolerable.

His approach and success as a hitter

Second, it was that .341 OBP and the fact that he would be 10th in the AL in pitches per plate appearance (had he qualified). He tries really hard, runs out every ground ball, and walks more than he strikes out, the ONLY player on the team to do so.

He walks 13.2% of the time which is in the top 5% in the AL (the average rate is 8%).

His .674 OPS is much better than the .459 he posted with Seattle last year.  He has a WAR of 1.3. He has 4 triples because when he hits a ball in the gap (which is extremely rare), the ball goes to the wall and the opposing team has that much further to run. So, he was absolutely more than what any one could possibly hope for.

He is a decent defender

Finally, he did a decent job as shortshop while Jose has been gone. His fielding was average, as good as Izturis and Derosa at the same position.

 

But what choice does management have?

But, fans, when Jose Reyes comes back, there is no other logical choice but for Kawasaki to go down. Kawasaki cannot play any other position well - he played 10 games at 2B last year (4 started) and that represents ALL of his experience at that position. It wouldn't be fair to take that position away from Derosa, Bonifacio, or Izturis. And none of those three players have options.

There is absolutely no situation where you would pinch hit Kawasaki for anyone on the team. There is no situation where you would put in Kawasaki as a defensive replacement for Jose Reyes or a second basement.

Bonifacio is in a hell of a slump right now, but he will get better. Defensively he already has. Izturis is out of his funk hitting .325 over his past 10 games. And Derosa isn't going anywhere.

My advice to you if you love Kawasaki: take the trip to Buffalo and go see him at a Bisons game. For the Jays management, the choice is clear. Maybe you postpone Reyes return until he is absolutely ready, but the plan is to have Reyes return after today's game, as he is ready, and the team needs him to continue their run.

Rogers bets Mayan civilization was right as it opens pursestrings

Christmas/Chanukah comes early for Blue Jays fans

What an off-season it has been, and it's only mid-November.

At the end of the season, I lamented that the Jays would limp into next season and would perhaps get their payroll up to $100 million next year. They would sign a couple of mediocre pitching talents,  maybe resign Villanueva to get the #5 starter, and get a mediocre 2nd baseman to replace Johnson (who will sign somewhere) and shop for an good LF to replace Davis/Gose/Thames/Snider.

I said that Rogers wouldn't spend money, that they have budgets to maintain and that they have to show a profit, and that Anthopolous (the economist) and Rogers (the conservative wireless giant) was too conservative to put a splash in the market.

Fans were lamenting about how lame their Blue Jays would be next year, and with no NHL going on, much more attention is being given to the Jays because well, the media needs to fill space, though the Argonauts are helping.

And up until the beginning of last week, things didn't look great. Farrell and half of the coaching staff was stolen by those bloody Red Sox for Aviles. Davis and Oliver were re-signed and for some reason Davis accepted $500K less than his option. Fans were frustrated that the new manager was not filled. To Cleveland went Gomes and Aviles for Esmil Rogers who had a successful stint in Cleveland and stunk in Colorado.

In came minor leaguers Jeremy Jeffress, Neil Germano, and Bobby Korecky. A minor splash was made in signing Izturis, who is defensively a substandard choice to replace Kelly Johnson and offensively is consistent and can switch hit (quite comfortably). I think he will do well if he can get regular play.

Still, not a heck of alot going on in the Blue Jays camp, and with managers to hire and with holes to fill at pitcher, utility infield / 2B, and LF, fans felt a great deal of miscontent as the off season started. With no NHL on, it was pretty easy to focus on baseball.

I was wrong.

And don't forget folks, we're only at 16 days since players declared their free agency!

So, imagine the shock when the epic trade was announced. Out went Escobar, the maligned, homophobic (well, perhaps not homophobic), boneheaded shortshop who really didn't mature in Toronto as we might have expected. Out went Hechavarria, the young promising shortstop who I am sure will dazzle defensively if he can get his bat working (and there is no reason to suggest he wouldn't). Out went Henderson Alvarez, the two pitch #5 pitcher (who was promoted to #2 this year thanks to injuries). Out went Jeff Mathis, who while defensively superior to JP, was just awful at the plate. And off went excellent prospects in Jake Marisnick, Justin Nicolino, and Anthony DeSclafani.

DeSclafani boasted a 3.38 ERA and a WHIP of 1.382 in Lansing over 21 starts and is at least two years away from the Majors. Nicolino is a lot more promising, with a 2.33 ERA and a WHIP of 1.070 over 28 starts. Expect to see him in the majors in 2014. And Jake Marisnick may have panned out for the Blue Jays, but with Gose and Sierra in AAA Buffalo and already showing capability in the majors, the depth chart might have been a bit too murky for him. Jake did not have a great end of year in New Hampshire, but if he does well, you might expect to see him in 2014 as well.

To me, Hechavarria was the biggest downside to this trade. In his last 29 games (27 started), there was only 3 games that he did not record a hit, and his line was .287 / .309 / .415. Defensively, he is great, a potential gold-glover, especially in his position as shortstop. This guy I think will be a starting major league shortshop for a long time, and I think he has much more potential than Jose Reyes and certainly Yunel.

On the flip side, the Jays brought in (from worst to best):

John Buck: His career year was in Toronto in 2010, when he hit .281 / .314 / .489. If he stays on the club and doesn't get flipped, he will be platooning with JP Arencibia. Travis D'Arnaud will at least start the year in Buffalo as he proves out his rehab. I expect that one of JP, Wilson or John Buck will be flipped during the off-season and I hope it's not Arencibia. Arencibia showed great defensive improvement in 2012 and his bat was just smoking before his injury in late July, going .321 /.356 / .714 over 18 games. If Buck can maintain a .300 OBP, he will have some value for the Jays. For $6M I am not sure if the Jays can trade him away.

Emilio Bonifacio: This guy is true utility. Over 393 games started, he's started 141 games in the outfield, 116 games at 3rd, 81 at short, and 65 at 2nd. Defensively, he is decent, but he didn't get much infield experience last year. He could be a utility infielder to backup Izturis or Brett Lawrie. He is definitely a fourth outfielder, and perhaps even a 3rd outfielder if Colby has another crappy year. His utility is his speed and his switch hitting bat. With 101 stolen base opportunities last year, he stole 30 bases (caught 3 times). Compare that to Rajai who stole 46 bases in 118 opporunities (but got caught 13 times). I'm happy about this guy.

Mark Buehrle: This guy is a pure workhorse with 200+ inning years for the last 12 years. Yes, he will be 34 next year and will be paid $11M (and $18M in 2014, $19M in 2015). But the guy is a dependable, sub 4 ERA, sub 1.3 WHIP, golden-gloved pitcher. He will be the Jays' consistent #3 starter for the next couple of years. He will take the pressure off of Romero, who is no longer going to be the ace of the club. There is simply no downside to this southpaw besides his age.

Josh Johnson: The Jays will pay Johnson $13.75M next year. In his comeback year after Tommy John, he threw 191 innings with an ERA of 3.82 and a WHIP of 1.28. If he comes back to form and pitches like he did in 2010, the Jays will find themselves with a bona fide ace. The guy doesn't give up home runs. He can strike people out at the rate of 8.2/9. He has power pitches in his fastball, slider, curve and changeup). His problem of course is injury. If he can have an injury-free year, he will impress with better stats than last year. Wow.

Jose Reyes: The Jays have acquired an all star and bonafide lead-off hitter. He has career splits of .287 / .347 / .433, playing in all but two games last year. Defensively, he is an average shortstop. But his strikeout rate is among the lowest in MLB (around 10% through his career), meaning that he is going to put alot of balls in play. This sets up nicely in the AL, where he can reliably complete a hit-and-run and is ideal for putting speed at the bottom of the order in Bonifacio, Rajai, or even Brett Lawrie. And this guy is consistently good. Yes, there are injury concerns -- Reyes will play 90 games on turf (81 at home + 9 in Tampa) which might be hard on him. But he is in the prime of his career, and Rogers is paying big bucks for him: 10 million for 2013, $16M for 2014, and $22M for the three years after. And once again, this is a switch hitter, equally able to hit from both sides.

And finally, last but, certainly not least, the Jays signed testosterone laden Melky Cabrera. The Melk Man stands to earn $8 million next year and will be the starting left-fielder, filling a hole that was never filled in Thames, Snider, Davis, Sierra, Gose, and even Adam Lind. The $8 million question is "which Melky is going to show up?" It's hard to tell what impact Cabrera's PED taking had on his stats. Perhaps he will be the Kansas City version with a .305 / .339 / .470 line. But he might turn out to be the Yankee Cabrera (or worst yet the Braves Cabrera) with a .264 / .321 / .377 line over four seasons.  Certainly, if the Cabrera who shows up is that version, the Jays got a bum deal. But Rogers and the Jays won't know until they try. Once again, Melky offers great switch-hitting stats, hitting pretty much equally from both sides. And he will have another fresh start in Toronto. Let's hope it's a good one.

So, the Jays have put it all on the table. Last year, the Jays were able to attract 12% more fans per game over 2011. There was alot of excitement at the beginning of the season with the fantastic spring training and the youth of the team.

So what's left to fill? The Jays' payroll is now inflated to over $120 million. The starting lineup now looks like:

Reyes 6 (.295 / .342 / .440)
Cabrera 7 (.295 / .328 / .432)
Bautista 9 (.259 / .377 / .528)
Encarnacion  DH/3  (.271 / .359 / .504)
Lind 3 (vs RHP) (.272 / .329 / .460)
Lawrie 5 (.289 / .342 / .465)
Rasmus 8 (.237 / .312 / .427)
Arencibia / Buck 2 (.232 / .278 / .451)  / (.219 / .298 / .384)
Izturis / Bonafacio 4 (.267 /  .333 / .360) (.275 / .336 / .350)

The lines above are predicted by Bill James and are available here.

On the bench is Rajai Davis. But then who is the final person on the bench? Looking at the roster, perhaps David Cooper might be a fit to play 1st or DH against LHP. Or perhaps it's going to be Moises or Gose, both who really aren't ready.

On the pitching side, the starting rotation now looks like Johnson, Morrow, Buehrle, Romero, and Happ. The bullpen consists of Oliver, Santos, Janssen, Delabar, Lincoln, and two of Jenkins, Perez, Loup, Cecil, and on the outside Jeffress and Rogers.

Certainly the Jays will be an exciting group next year. They are much faster with the legs of Davis / Reyes and Izturis or Bonifacio. The #1 and #2 hitters are huge upgrades over last year.

But why?

Why did Rogers spend the money? Well, the reason is many fold, I think.

First, next year, all teams are going to receive an extra $28 million dollars in revenue from revenue sharing due to renegotiated TV contracts. All teams will therefore spend much more in 2014, players will become more expensive, and therefore the $20 million or so in extra outlay is a one year expense. The Jays would have budgeted $120M in 2014 anyway, because they were already going to spend $100M this year and will receive a boost of $28M in 2014. It seems reasonable to jump the gun this year. Rogers also received $36 million (according to the Globe and Mail, a number that Beeston denies) in TV revenue from SportsNet last year according to Forbes and that number only stands to grow.

Secondly, the Jays now know that the fans react to a good team on the field. Attendance numbers jumped 15% last year before settling down to 2011 levels when the team's injuries put them out of reach for contention. TV and radio numbers were also great. So, putting the talent on the field will fill seats, and bring in more TV and stadium revenue. And with no hockey in town -- yet -- the Jays fans are paying very close attention.

Finally, there was a promise from Beeston made to his season ticket holders at the State of the Franchise meeting in January of this year: "In the next five years, I would expect that we would be in it two to three times," Beeston said. With his contract up for renewal, it was time to make that splash.

Forbes makes an interesting point. Sabermetrics points out that each WAR costs about $4 million on the free trade market. Anthopolous in this set of trades paid $56 million for a 16.8 WAR or about 3.2 million per point: cheap.

Certainly, the excitement for the Jays is now there. The money's been spent, and the fandom is reenergized.

Now, time to hire a manager.

Rogers Davidi vs Pirate Snider: my take

Snider saga of growing up now online!

From mlbreports.com
 Travis Snider before the 2011 season.

Shi Davidi's three part "saga" on Snider's career can be found at Sportsnet. It's really an excellent read in journalism. Shi took a 90 minute interview with Snider, talked to club ownership, and really put together the whole article in a way that spread the "blame" around. Some people have commented that Snider needed to grow up, that he was a "diva" while others blamed Gaston/Tenace/Anthopoulos.

For me, it's a mix of both. In the end, there are many factors that led to Snider's trade to the Pirates and these are precised below: 

1. Travis wasn't mentally prepared for MLB.
2. The Blue Jays (Cito/Tenace) didn't understand his mental makeup and treated him poorly.
3. The logjam in leftfield and the number of options that Anthopoulos had available hurt his chances for a permanent promotion.
4. As a result of Travis' mental fragility and untimely injuries and bad timing, he never meshed with the club management and didn't perform well.
5. When he finally did get promoted, due to injuries and very poor performance by the AAA callups, Anthopolous went shopping for a bullpen at the trade deadline and Travis (and Thames) were victims of trade.

There is a great background read at Yahoo Sports dated April 10, 2009 (Life Lessons came early for Snider). In short, Snider's (at age 14) mom went into a coma. When she came out of it, she had liver damage, memory loss, and her husband (Travis' dad) left him, putting him into the caretaker role and forcing him into counselling for anger management. And just when he thought he was done for it, his mother died in a car accident just after he got back from his season at Lansing in September, 2007.

A native of Mill Creek, Washington (a northern suburb of Seattle), his high school (Jackson) was ranked #2 in the nation in 2006, having gone 27-0 (the number 1 team, Woodlands, Texas, featured none other than Kyle Drabek).

He was drafted by the Jays 14th overall in the 2006 draft at the age of 18 for 1.7 million. To be convinced that he should be signed, not only did assistant GM LaCava scout him in Washington, but JP Ricciardi flew Snider to SkyDome and personally threw batting practice with him to become convinced. 

Baseball America interviewed him while he was playing for Pulaski in the Appalachian rookie league, and Snider had the typical responses, of him being honored to play in the Blue Jays organization, how he wanted to work hard, and all of the typical responses. And he did work hard, batting to an OPS of .979 for Pulaski. That performance earned him the Appalachian League Player of the Year and Rookie Player of the Year honours.

In 2007, he was promoted to the Lansing Lugnuts where he stayed all year and hit .313 / .377 / .505 with 16 home runs, despite injuring his thumb in the middle of May (zapping his power until early August). He hit LHP and RHP equally well (at .311 or above). He dealt with adversity with the thumb injury and slump in June and started to hit really well in July. Scout.com compared Snider favorably with Jay Bruce (all star outfielder for the Reds), stating this: 

"They will both record their fair share of strike outs, but without sacrificing their batting average that will roam around .300 and their on-base presence, and hit for a lot of power to all fields while handling pitches from whoever is facing them on the mound. They also both clearly show the potential to be major producers for their respective teams in the future"

And like Jay Bruce in 2007 who went through a meteoric rise in the minors, Travel had the same meteoric rise in the minors in 2008. As the #11 Baseball America prospect, he started in Dunedin for 17 games (with JP Arencibia, Cooper) where he played just 17 games before getting called up to New Hampshire (as the youngest player in Fisher Cats history) where he hit .262 / .357 / .461 with 17 home runs over 362 at bats (recording 116Ks), playing with JP Arencibia, Erik Kratz (now catching with the Phillies), and Kyle Phillips. In August, he was promoted to AAA Syracuse where he only managed to hit. 344 in 64 at bats. He was ready for the big leagues. He debuted with the Jays on August 29th and managed to hit .301 / .338 / .466 over 73 at bats. He went to the Arizona Fall league to hone his skills further.

  

A Seattle Times story written in February, 2008 talks about the prospects mental character in the face of adversity. By all accounts, everyone agreed that he succeeded extremely well in all facets of life, despite adversity. Larry Stone, sports writer for the Seattle Times, stated in early 2008: 

He may, in fact, be the most self-actualized young player I've ever encountered, and it's no accident. Snider has worked as hard on himself as he has on his game.

JP Ricciardi said of him in the same story: 

"As far as the physical attributes, he's going to be a very good hitter. But it's really the mental stuff that separates Travis. He's been through some tough things. You talk about a young kid that gets it — he gets it."

That said, he had a very tough teenage years, where he went through the death of two close grandparents, the death of his coach, the demise of his mother, the pain of parents divorcing, and having to support his mother. He was a big kid (built as a linebacker), and had anger management issues, went to counselling, and poured all of his anger and emotions into baseball.

When is mother died in a sudden car accident just after the 2007 Lugnuts season, he used the Jays employee assistance program and the Jays made sure that he was encompassed in baseball.

By all accounts, this young man knew adversity and succeeded despite it. The Davidi story paints Snider in his early career as being immature and subject to criticism and not being able to deal with Tenace and Gaston. That's a bunch of crap. Snider dealt with adversity quite well. He just needed time to process it at his young age.

What I will say, however, is that Snider was used to success at every level. When he hit the MLB, which is the penultimate destination (nirvana, heaven), he ran into management in Gaston and Tenace who did not treat him with the kid gloves that Ricciardi did. There is no doubt in my mind that Gaston wanted him to succeed. But Snider's head and confidence was so wrapped up in his success at baseball that when he finally met failure, he did not handle it well at all.

Gaston did not understand his mental makeup and treated him poorly. He made this statement in the Davidi article:

The Blue Jays, Gaston explains, "were trying to ease him into it, trying to make sure he’s going to be successful, instead of shoving him out there against tough left-handers. I understand why it’s tough to understand after he hit two home runs, but there are some guys who can take it from their teammates, some guys that can’t. He’s got to be able to take it."

Certainly, Gaston's regime was not rookie-friendly, and Snider didn't take it very well in his own account. He did not like sitting out games. Things did not go well for Snider in 2009. He started off the season quite similar to how Lawrie finished in 2011, hitting the cover off the ball. Through his first 14 games, he hit .310 / .383 / .643 with 8 extra base hits in his first 13 hits. But he slipped after that, and in the stretch of 18 games prior to his demotion back to AAA Veags, he hit .193 / .220 / .211. This coincides well with Snider's recalling of him trying to change his swing in Davidi's story with Tenace's and Gaston's urgings. And frankly, Snider had stiff competition in the outfield. So, with the roster, Gaston went with Bautista / Rios / Wells in the outfield, Overbay at 1st, and Rolen at 3rd, with Lind at DH. This left no room for Snider to play, and he was demoted.

And by Travis' account, he did not take this well. And why would he? All of Snider's failures were things he couldn't control - the deaths and divorce around him. Baseball was perhaps the only one thing he could control. This was really the only time in life where he had a personal failure, and naturally, looking back, he blamed the failure on his relationship with Gaston and Tenace, and probably was upset at Ricciardi too.

And things did not get better for him. By his accounts, he languished in AAA at first but recovered, and he came up to finish the 2009 season hitting .276 / .360 / .483 in the last 26 games of the season, which is major league quality for a left fielder. Then Ricciardi was fired, Gaston had the clubhouse riot, and Dwayne Murphy came on as hitting coach.

By the middle of May, 2010, it looked like Snider was indeed going to be the everyday left fielder, and indeed despite his first 19 game struggle (.125 / .253 / .250) they kept him out there, and he turned a corner indeed, batting .385 / .418 / .769 over his next 14 games. Then he hurt his wrist, and that really sucked both mentally and physically. Snider languished in AAA and AA while he tried to recover. Meanwhile, Fred Lewis was doing really well as a regular outfielder for the Jays, batting (until the end of July) .280 / .342 / .456. With Bautista now playing regularly in rightfield, Gaston needed to find room for Snider to play, and for a while, Snider platooned with Lewis while Edwin played terribly at 3rd base. This got into Snider's head (according to him) but he tried to prevail anyway, and with Lewis' production falling off, Snider won the position in LF and he finished the season well and had a stretch of 12 games at the end of the season where he bat .373 / .396 / .706).

So, my take on Snider is that while he admits the game gets into his head, he manages to turn it around over time. His stats prove that. In every case in the Davidi story where Snider is performing badly, Snider blames it eventually on himself and how he handled situations.

And this is the great, great plus for Snider. He is capable of being a fantastic player if the game in his head is right. And he knows this.

And really, the Jays management has got to do what is best for them, not what is best for a 22 year old. Certainly, management didn't really comprehend that their actions affected Travis' performance as much as they did. And even if they did understand it, it is management's job to coddle a player?

Given Snider's potential, perhaps the answer should be "yes". However, in life, there are going to be challenges. Was Jays management right in playing Fred Lewis over Travis Snider? Absolutely. Lewis was having a great year (hitting .280 at the end of July) in 2010 for the Jays, and so was Jose Bautista. You might fault the Jays for putting Lind out there day after day, but for the money he was being paid and the .932 OPS the year before, why wouldn't you? And Bautista was needing to be repurposed as a right fielder to make way for Edwin's bat. There just wasn't alot of room with Bautista in right, Lind at DH, Overbay at 1st, and Edwin at 3rd.

The team has to do what's right for the team, not what's right for a player. Snider was victim of unfortunate circumstances and as a result, he was bounced around between AAA and the majors. Finally, when Snider did come up, he won the job in LF anyway over a languishing Lewis.

And in 2011, he just did not play well at the big league level. By this time, this was his 4th year in MLB and the Jays were really not responsible for his mental state. Snider uses (in part two of the article) excuses of not having a contract and getting beat out by Thames as excuses, but I think the Jays mentality at this point was that he has to perform to earn a spot on the team. He wasn't.

Finally, in 2012, the Jays left Travis down in AAA, not calling him up until mid-July. And he did well once called up. But he was blindsided once again with a trade to the Pirates, where he could now have a fresh start.

Except he's the same Snider. To August 29, Snider managed to hit about .301 / .385 / .422, but since August 31, Snider his hitting just .111 with no extra base hits. He hurt his hamstring. He's not getting regular play. All of this has gotten into his head, yet again, despite playing for a new club.

At some point, a team has got to look at a player and all of the investment made in him. He was a first round draft pick with great expectations, and he did great up until he was called up to the team's top level. And even in MLB, he has shown greatness. But mentally, he was and is fragile, letting the management actions and other players get to his head which translated to his bat. At some point, a team needs reliability. When the Jays looked at their roster at the end of July, they realized that their chances of getting into the post season with an injured Lawrie, Bautista, Arencibia, starting rotation and bullpen was slim and none. Anthopolous realized that he had an immediate need to shore up the bullpen and he got rid of what he saw was a mental liability in Travis Snider.

For what it's worth (nothing) I wish Travis the best of luck. I think he has the capability to be an all-star, but he's gotta remove himself mentally from his physical game. If he can do that, he will be successful.

Series recap: Jays wake up in Baltimore

September 24-26, 2012

After losing six in a row in the Bronx and at the Trop, the remaining Jays fans who have now turned their eyes elsewhere (not hockey) were looking for a turnaround in Baltimore. And it looks like they got one - a small one, mind you, as they went 2-2 in the four game set.

 

In all, the Jays come back off the road going 2-8, quite disappointing, but frankly, in a best case scenario, with the teams that they were playing and the state of the roster, 4-6 might have been the best to hope for.

On the pitching front, Laffey's effort was by far the highlight of the series. Alvarez, Romero, and Villanueva were not good. The bullpen however was excellent with the exception of Wednesday night's game when Farrell trotted out Carreno, Beck, and Carpenter down by 4, 6, and 8 runs. Janssen also looked rusty in his efforts but managed to get out relatively unscathed.

On the hitting front, Arencibia, Lind, Edwin, and Hechavarria were highlights, while Colby and Lawrie were disappointments.

• JP went 7 for 9 with two walks in the series, after going 2 for 37 with two walks since his injuries. Perhaps he's turned the corner, a great sign. Remember that in the 18 games before his injury, he hit .319 / .349 / .700 (with six home runs) and was really coming together. In Baltimore, he hit a  home run and a double.
• Adam Lind went 6 for 9 in the series (all singles). Since September 11, Adam's hitting 17-51 (.333) with 4 doubles, 2 triples, and a home run for an OPS of .906.  If Lind can end the season on this positive note, it will be difficult to dismiss him as the opening day 1B or DH especially against RHP and the value of his contract.  
• Edwin went 5-16 with two home runs. Edwin, in his last 11 games is batting 12-37 with 4 home runs and 8 walks (OPS 1.106).  
• Hechavarria went 3 for 8 and is running a 9 game hitting streak, batting 10 for 29 with 2 doubles and a home run in that stretch (OPS .889). Since August 23rd, Adieny is hitting (.303 / .329 / .434) over 81 plate appearances and is making the argument to be in the starting lineup next year.

On the awful side, Colby Rasmus went 1 for 12 (two walks) while Brett Lawrie went 2 for 16 (3 walks). Colby's batting .111 in his last 11 games played; Lawrie is batting .170. When your 1-2 in the order has a .255 and .200 OBP respectively, it's hard for Edwin to drive in runs. Bautista had the same problem at the start of the season when Escobar and Johnson headed up the lineup.

 

Monday afternoon: Jays 1 at Orioles 4

 

The Jays continued their offensive drought Monday afternoon, while Henderson Alvarez gave up four runs over 5 2/3rds inning in a step back after three good outings.

Henderson's enemy again was the home run. In the bottom of the fourth, a lead off walk to Chris Davis was followed up by an Adam Jones home run. Alvarez gave up an another home run to Flaherty to open the bottom of the fifth, and Alvarez really started to come undone in the bottom of the sixth, as the Orioles loaded the bases (Jones single, Wieters double, Thome intentional walk) with none out. Mark Reynolds then hit into a double play, scoring Adam Jones. Cecil then came on to finish the frame, and Frasor and Beck finished off the game without any damage being done.

Henderson's line was 5.2 innings pitched. Over 86 pitches, he walked 3, struck out 6, and gave up 2 home runs. The Jays defence was fine that afternoon with no glaring problems or issues.

 

On the offensive side, the Jays threatened (as usual) a few times in the game before breaking through in the eighth inning with two outs. Edwin singled, Lind singled, and Rajai Davis doubled home Edwin. Darren O'Day came on to strike out Kelly Johnson (good guess) to end the threat. Jim Johnson breezed through the last frame to record his 48th (!) save.

 

The rookie Steve Johnson let in 3 hits over five innings of work and looked great, now going 21 scoreless innings over a couple of starts and relief appearances. And besides Tommy Hunter, the rest of the Orioles pitching staff pitched with their usual efficiency.

 

For the Jays hitting, Colby reached twice on walks, and Adam Lind hit twice. Jeff Mathis went 0-2 as did Yunel. Anthony Gose went 0-4.

 

Monday night: Jays 9 at Orioles 4.

An excellent offensive effort by the Jays (Arencibia's 5 RBIs), and a key defensive play by Gose resulted in a Jays win.

The night game featured the struggling Ricky Romero vs Wei-Yin Chen. In this match, the Jays needed some excellent defensive play to win this game. Ricky was truly lucky to end up with the win.

Edwin started off the scoring in the top of the first with a two run home run following a Brett Lawrie walk. Ricky's bottom of the first looked a little shaky with a opening walk.

Chen continued to be shaky in the 2nd. Sierra singled and Visquel doubled to open the inning. JP Arencibia hit a long fly ball to right to advance Visquel and score Sierra. Gose singled to left to score Visquel and it was 4-0 going into the bottom of the 2nd.

But in the bottom of the 2nd, 8 hitters for Baltimore came to the plate as Romero's pitching woes continued. Reynolds singled, then Machado hit a seeing eye single between 3rd and short. Chavez advanced the runners to 2nd and 3rd with two out, but Andino hit a weak single again between short and 3rd to score two runs. Romero then errored allowing Teagarden to reach and McLouth was beaned before Romero got out of the inning. 4-2 after 2.

Romero managed to sail through the 3rd and 4th inning. Romero ran into some trouble in the bottom of the 5th as McLouth paid back Romero for hitting him by hitting a home run. Jones then hit a double and Romero walked two batters, loading the bases before Chavez hit a weak ground ball down the first base side that Romero handled and tagged him out to preserve the lead. Sierra immediately homered in the top of the 5th to give Romero a 5-3 lead going into the 5th, and with Romero having thrown 85 pitches and looking wild, it was really surprising to see him come out and pitch the sixth. I really thought that Farrell would want his bullpen to preserve the win.

In the bottom of the 5th, Romero continued his woes, giving up a double to Andino, a single and a walk, ending Romero's day. Sportsnet had some nice shots of Romero looking quite upset as Brad Lincoln came on to with the bases loaded and none out. JJ Hardy then singled to score a run. Lincoln then settled down and managed to strike out Adam Jones, then a shallowish fly ball by Davis was caught by Jones. Teagarden, the lumbering catcher tagged, and Gose threw a perfect one bounce strike to Arencibia to tag out the Oriole, just barely in time. 5-4 Jays after 6, and Romero was in line for the win.

In the 7th, with Jake Arreita on the mound, the Jays struck again. Encarnacion walked, Escobar singled, and Lind (who pinch hit for Yan Gomes against the righty) singled to load the bases. Sierra then hit into a fielders choice as Reynolds threw out Encarnacion for the force at home, and Visquel popped to short. Then, JP Arencibia, who was hitting 4-39 since his return, decided to hit a just-out-of-the park GRAND SLAM to take the a 9-4 lead.

Lincoln pitched the 7th, Loup the 8th and Janssen came on to pitch the ninth. He looked rusty, giving up 3 singles to load the bases with none out, but Reynolds managed to hit into a double play (scoring one) and Machado struck out to end the ball game.

Tuesday: Jays 4, Orioles 0

Aaron Laffey and the bullpen combine for a shutout, Jays get 13 hits for 2nd night in a row in a well-rounded effort.

Aaron Laffey threw something like 57 innings last year in the Mariners and Yankee organization before being converted into a starter by the Jays this year. So, far this year, Laffey threw 63.2 innings for Las Vegas and 90 innings for the Jays. I think if the Jays didn't have to use Laffey to start, they wouldn't, but with Happ on the bench and playing 10 games in 8 days left little choice for the Jays.

Laffey pitched 5 2/3rds inning, scattering 5 hits, pitching to contact (no walks, no strikeouts). Farrell decided to preserve his arm and took Laffey out of the game with Jones single while the Jays were up 2-0. Farrell then played matchups, putting out Delabar, Cecil (to get one out), and Lyon. Oliver and Janseen then finished the game, and once again Janssen looked rusty, as Escobar bobbled a ball with 1 out, then a popup and two walks later, the bases were loaded with 2 out with the tying run at the plate in Flaherty, who hit a fly ball to end the game.

Offensively, it was another 13 hit effort as every Jay got at least one hit. Gomes recorded an RBI in the first, with a single to score Lawrie in the 1st. In the fourth, Hechavarria hit a long double with two out to knock in Davis from first. The Jays scored two more in the 7th as Rasmus knocked in Arencibia who singled and advanced to second as Gose reached on a an error. Encarnacion then knocked in Gose but Davis threw out Rasmus as he tried to go 1st to 3rd. The throw by Davis was brilliant and just got Rasmus out at 3rd, so I wouldn't blame Rasmus from trying to advance.

Escobar, Gomes, Rajai, and JP Arencibia got two hits each. Arencibia was the only player who walked.

Wednesday: Jays 2 and Baltimore 12

Carlos Villanueva ran out of gas in the 5th inning as the Jays offense runs typically dry. The bullpen's minor leaguers allowed 2 runs each inning to put the game out of reach.

As I wrote in my previous blog entry, Villanueva has been audtioning to be a starter now since he entered the rotation on June 29th. The fear for Villanueva has always been his arm. He injured it last year, and he's never pitched as many innings as he has this year. I think that Villanueva has starter stuff, but that his arm will wear out at some point next year. For that reason, I think Villaneuva would be a perfect fit for the Jays as both Drabek and Hutchinson will be ready mid and late season to replace Carlos.

In the first inning, Edwin and and McLouth exchanged home runs. In the fifth, the Jays scored thir only other run of the game as Gose knocked in Arencibia who doubled on the previous at bat.

But in the bottom of the 5th, Villaneuva's arm had had enough. Villanueva's fastball had topped out at 90mph, and he was relying alot on his slider, change up and curve to get runners out, and he was successful at doing so. Villanueva up until the point was pretty good, throwing 7 strikeouts and walking 1. Jim Thome hit the 1st pitch (a change up) out of the park to tie the game. With two outs, Machado hit a home run (on another change up) to go down 3-2. McLouth and Hardy then singled before Chris Davis hit his 27th home run for his 27th home run (on a slider left up). That ended it for Villaneuva.

Down 6-2, Farrell elected to go to the AAA callups in the bullpen, going with Carreno in the 6th, who walked Wieters and gave up a 2 run home run to Mark Reynolds. In the 7th, Farrell went with Beck. Beck gave up a single to Hardy before Chris Davis hit a 2-run homer. In the 8th, Farrell went with David Carpenter. Lawrie had a terrible throw to allow Reynolds to reach, and then Machado homered. 12-2 after 8.

Offensively, Adam Lind went 3 - 4 (singles), while Arencibia (2B), Encarnacion (HR), Gose, and Hechavarria rounded out the hitting.

So, for Carlos, who may have one outing remaining, he is running on fumes. One might ask why Farrell would run out the Vegas trio to throw innings when down only 4 runs, but I am thinking that he needed to give his bullpen a rest.

Coming up: Jays vs Yankees

The Jays come home now to finish off their disappointing season, getting to hopefully play spoiler against the Yankees, who will be pulling out all the stops to win the division against the Orioles (who will be in Boston). The last series will be against the even more disappointing Minnesota Twins to close out the season.