New season, same team?

Disappointment will be less as our expectations are much lower

The Toronto Blue Jays open their season tomorrow at Tampa before the Yankees come to town this weekend. I've been away for five months and it's great that baseball is back. I managed to listen to and watch some of the spring training games looking for something different. I watched the off-season moves, hoping that Alex Anthopolous and Rogers would come up with some scratch to sign a big name pitcher for 2014. 

So, what I see is the same players (save Navarro, thank God) on the same team using the same techniques to win and lose games. 

The exception this year is that our expectations were so high this year, while this year I think the fan base will be happy with anything over .500. Certainly, Rogers Media has toned down the rhetoric for this year, and that's a good thing. I think the fan base at Rogers Centre will remain steady, making no gains on 2013, while the fan base around the country will remain tied to the Blue Jays' win-loss record, with some extra interest as it looks like only one Canadian team will make the NHL playoffs.

Let's take a look at this year's roster and point out some of the questionable roster moves for opening day. This article will focus on the hitters, while the next focuses on the pitching.

Overall, this team should be hitting better than they did last year, which was absolutely abysmal. Last year featured some terrible offensive outages due to really poor seasons by Maicer, JP, and Bonifacio, bad streaks by Jose, Colby, Lind, and Lawrie compounded by injuries by most everyone on the offence, leaving them with inferior replacements like Kawasaki, Thole/Blanco, Gose, and Pillar. 

Once again, the key to this year's performance offensively will be consistency and injury avoidance. While the addition of Navarro might help the offensive performance as will a return of Melky to his former self, the team is now lacking formidable speed with the departures of Emilio (who could never get on base anyway) and Rajai Davis (a true weapon), and Anthony Gose sitting in AAA. This means that the team must attempt to move runners forward by ways of the bat. And with a three man bench and no one on the bench particularly good, late game situational hitting will be lacking.

This leads me to believe that while the numbers overall will be better, run production will suffer.

Here's my player by player analysis.

C - Dioner Navarro with a .300 / .465 / .492 slash last year and an all star 2008 (with Tampa) under his belt, this guy brings veteran experience behind the plate, which is what the pitching staff and John Gibbons needs defensively. Offensively, he comes with a caveat, in that there were years where he suffered at the plate. For example, after his all-star year with the Rays where he hit .295, he hit just .218 in the following year. So, it is unclear which Dioner we are going to get this year. Still, it's a huge improvement over the train wreck which was JP Arencibia last year. He seemed to have some power last year too, hitting 13 homers in 266 plate appearance. In Rogers Centre, playing full-time, he might have the potential to hit 20 dingers. I also like the fact that he came from Tampa, a Blue Jays rival, with some knowledge of the pitching system there.

C - Josh Thole is here to catch RA Dickey, and will figure into games only if he manages to crack .200. He was quite the batting disappointment last year, but I think part of that was the fact that he was only in games where the opposing pitcher was the team's ace (in that RA is the Blue Jays ace, and aces tend to play each other).

I am surprised that the Jays chose Thole over Kratz as the backup catcher. In the end, I think the Jays traded offense for the ability to catch and hopes that Thole can have a little bit of offense one game of five. I think it's a very tall order to push Thole into action one day out of five, and I would like to see the Jays play him in two of five games, especially if his offense shows a bit of spark.

1B/DH - Adam Lind has had an excellent spring, with Buck quoting that he was looking like the Lind of 2009. Well with the goatee, he definitely looks like the Dr. Hyde version of Lind in 2013. The issue with Lind always is his back health and his ability to stay consistent. If he can remain warm for 2014 and Gibbons uses him in every day situations (against LHP and RHP) and gives him breaks so that he can rest (using him as DH, sitting him from time to time), Lind can relive his glory from 2009.

1B/DH - Edwin Encarnacion, for a Jay, is Mr. Consistency. From oblivion three years ago when the Jays let him go to Oakland (only to be reclaimed), the former "E5" has turned into a decent first baseman sporting a .275 / .364 / .517 line over the past three years with not much in the way of injuries.

At issue here are the away National league games (against Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati) where both Edwin and Adam can't play.

2B - Ryan Goins -- The Blue Jays draftee of 2009 is the starting 2B, sporting a paltry .177 batting average over spring training. Last year, in his MLB debut, he hit .252 / .264 / .345 over 121 plate appearances, with 2 walks and 28 strikeouts. He is supposed to be excellent defensively.

I seriously question the decision of putting in Goins over Kawasaki. Now, one could point out Muni's slash last year (.229 / .326 / .308) as being worse than Goins, but that OBP is meaningful. Muni drew a heck of alot more of Pitches per Plate Appearance than pretty much anyone else in the majors. He is extremely popular with the fan base, and he is defensively capable all around the infield. One could argue that this year represents that natural progression for Goins, and that it's his time to prove himself at the MLB level. But the fan base loves Muni. He is JAPANESE!!!

The good news is that if Ryan doesn't prove himself, Muni will be on that bus from Buffalo.

SS - Jose Reyes, while defensively average, Jose is a necessary and vital piece of the Jays offense this year. Our hope is that his hamstring doesn't have any issue. His injury last year was not related to his hamstring. I hope that he improves on his already excellent .296/.353/.427 line from last year.

3B - Brett Lawrie -- We were hoping collectively that LAST year would have been the year for Brett, and looking that the downward trend year over year, we find that we have been making excuses for this man's offensive performance (at .254/.315/.397) last year. He had a terrible spring, got injured, tried 2B (stupid idea), and finally broke out after the all star break, where he had a string of 42 games hitting .324 / .384 / .507 before having a meh September. Defensively, he's a gem. If he stays healthy, it will be HIS year to show MLB his star quality. He becomes arbitration eligible next year, and the Jays are going to have to show him the money if he has a great year, which we all hopes he has. He seems to have matured and slowed down his waggle at home plate and seems to have more control.

UF - Maicer Izturis is the team's utility infielder and after a crappy year (his worst year offensively in MLB), we are all hoping that he does better. When he had regular play with Brett's injury, he managed to hit .309 / .351 / .397 over 150 plate appearance, which was pretty good. But he started off terribly and ended the season terribly as well, batting just .167 for the rest of the season over 103 plate appearances. Defensively, he is okay. 

LF - Melky Cabrera, with an undiagnosed tumour in his back and an absolute defensive liability in LF last year, the man still managed to hit .279 last year with no power. This year, he looks absolutely white hot, hitting .400 in spring training. We can only hope that Melky is the Melky of 2011 this year. We shall see if the turf in LF doesn't hurt him.

CF - Colby Rasmus was hot and cold last year, pretty much like the rest of the club, and with a strikeout rate near 30% and a propensity to look foolish against LHP, he can be a frustrating player to watch. Still, overall, he had an excellent year in 2013, batting .276 / .338 / .501. He demonstrates power. Defensively, he has moments where he is excellent, and moments of complete lapses. I'm looking forward to seeing him perform this year, and hopes that he has a consistently good year with a measure of better plate discipline.

RF - Jose Bautista has had an excellent spring, and that wrist and his violent swing hopefully will not lead to injury as it has over the last couple of years. Still, a HR every 15 or so plate appearances is not a bad thing, and his arm and defence is most helpful.

OF - Moises Sierra had an excellent 2013 in limited action as Jose's replacement last September and represents a capable 4th OF for the Jays and represents the good choice versus Gose and Pillar.

The Outsiders: Anthony Gose, Kevin Pillar, Muni Kawasaki and Kratz are the four outsiders looking in. I see all four of them in Jays uniforms at some point this year.

Next: the Pitchers.

Major Suckage Continue as Jays just not into it

Jays make blunders, hitting continues to suffer

When you look back on the scoresheet, you wonder how the Jays continue to lose close games and wonder how the continuous pressure is feeling on this organization.

As April draws to a close, the Jays stand to open the season with anywhere between 9 and 12 wins and 18 and 15 losses -- A lousy start. In my previous article, I compared the Jays with the 2001 Oakland As who started the season 8-18 to end the season at 102-60.

But when I look at this Blue Jays team, the fundamentals are just not there yet.

Here are what I think are two major problems on the team:

Something is terribly wrong with the hitting

Maicer Izturis and Bonifacio need to have their career-advertised .320+ OBP to be effective, and so far, they've fallen fall short of that. In fact BOTH players are having their career worst months in MLB.

Bonifacio has a paltry .219 OBP for April, his worst month even in the majors except for the first month that he played back in 2008. Certainly, he can do better, and yes, he should be given the opportunity to be better by putting him in the situations he should be playing in: in CF or at 2B against LHP and used later in the game for situtaional ball, as he was today.

Izturis is also having his worst month ever with a .197 OBP.

Brett Lawrie is slowly coming around, and the excuse that he didn't have any spring training holds. There is no evidence that suggests that he is not improving. His OBP is heading in the right direction and his at bats look better.

Rajai Davis is playing to expectations, but positionally, there's no room on the field for him unless you sit Colby, It makes sense to sit Colby and Adam Lind against LHP. In that case, put Rajai in centre and Bonifacio at 2B, or alternatively put Bonifacio in CF, Rajai in LF, and DH Cabrera. But with the way that Bonifacio and Izturis are hitting, you can only afford to put one of them in the lineup and hope that they come around. That forces you to keep Davis in the lineup but with the outfielders all doing very well against RHP, that's not possible to do. A conumdrum for sure, and not one of the good kind.

Melky Cabrera, I believe is also going to be okay. With an OBP of .310 (so far) and a 50+ game suspension last year and his deliberate exlusion from the playoffs, he is only slowly getting back to form. He should be fine.

Edwin is going to be fine, and his bombs in Baltimore and New York show that he's found his swing again.

JP Arencibia has switched into a home run hitter. 40% of his at bats end in strikeouts, compared to his 30% average from the last two years. Given that he's at the top of the leaderboard in home runs, this isn't a bad thing. There is nothing wrong with his .267 BA and playing in 4 of every 5 games is good for him.

Then there's Jose Bautista. Half of his 12 hits have been home runs, and he has yet to hit more than once in a game. He has got to come around and try to get hits instead of bombs especially against tough pitching. He has been unlucky too especially with his ground balls (his BABIP is sub .200). He must improve for this team to get better.

Adam Lind has seemed to develop plate discipline, and hopefully the birth of his second child doesn't destroy that high OBP (close to .400). If he can have a year anything north of his last three years, it will be good.

Kawasaki is doing way more than expected. A replacement level player at best, he's doing very well... too well. As his scouting gets better, expect him to start to do worse. 

And finally, Colby Rasmus. He too is turning into a DH with a strikeout rate at close to 50%. He needs plate discipline but I think it's actually coming along. Does Colby belong at the #2 spot?

Still, for this team, it's a matter of timely hitting. The lineup, as it stands, just isn't stringing hits together. Bautista is usually the 3rd out, leaving bases empty for Edwin. Brett Lawrie and Izturis/Bonifacio need to improve. Average pitchers are looking like aces in front of the Jays, and while there are glimmers of hope and a few comebacks, this team on any given night just looks awful at the plate with the exception of the home run.

I think Gibby is learning what is working and what is not and adjusting his lineup accordingly. He's stuck with putting Maicer or Bonifacio in every game and trotting Kawasaki out there every day to play short. But really, the lineup should be pretty much the same as advertised with a "no-panic" lineup. I don't like the fact that he is switching the lineup everyday.

Which brings me to my second point: Infield defence

The Jays middle infield, frankly, just sucks, and that was before Jose Reyes was struck with injury. Now it really sucks, and Brett Lawrie is not much better (yet), though much faster.

With messed up throws and errors from Lawrie, Bonifacio, Izturis, and Kawasaki, and missed plays because of lack of speed, the infield has cost the Jays several games, as has the poor play of Arencibia. These errors force the pitchers to throw more pressure under higher pressure and cause the team to play from behind. This in turn puts pressure on the team to bat to play catch up and results in higher strike out rates as the players get away from their own ideal fundamentals.

I do like Lawrie's glove, but his decision making to throw the ball results in costly errors. He needs to eat the ball or make better throwing decisions by planting his feet and making accurate throws to first.

And while Kawasaki started out strong, his play at shortstop has now been questionable. It seemed like since he commited his game-losing error against Baltimre, his defense has been suffering.

And both Maicer and Bonifacio's 2B play have been poor. Tonight loss was caused by many, many blunders: 5 walks given up by Laffey, Rajai getting caught stealing 3rd for the third out, the passed ball by Arencibia, the non-play by Kawasaki, the missed play by Lawrie, and the blundered double play by Izturis. The Jays need to play clean defense so that their pitcher can get out of innings more quickly.

I pointed out when Escobar and Johnston were traded that the defense would suffer, and it has greatly. 

What to do

There is really no valid explanation as to why both Izturis and Bonifacio are doing so poorly at the same time, and there is really no valid explanation as to why Lind, Bautista, Rasmus, and Encarnacion had very slow starts to the year.

So you look at the sum of the whole. Each of the players, true, are to blame for their own individual performances, but you have to wonder what effect does the coaching staff have on their players. How is the player's individual relationship with the management affecting their own performance, and collectively, can the relationships between the managers and players affect performance? I think so.

John Gibbons appears to be in panic mode. With the daily switchup of the lineups and his expermentation with the player of the moment being allowed to bat second, I wonder if he's in over his head.

But both the fans and the team need to calm down. Expectations are high, but it's okay if the Jays don't make the playoffs this year. With the Maple Leafs about to start a playoff run, the media and fans will be looking to the ice instead of the field for a while. The pitching staff will be around for another year. Jose Reyes will come back healthy.

But there are a few things they can do:

(1) Goodbye Blanco, hello Thole. Thole is a major league catcher and is outperforming in AAA. It's time to bring him to the show.

(2) Time to trade Colby Rasmus and Bonifacio for a reliable 2B and bring up Gose or Sierra, or to DFA Izturis or Bonifacio and give Jim Negrych a chance. Something defensively has to change.

(3) Take a deep look at the management staff and their style. Don't panic. Keep the lineup the same against RHP and LHP.

(4) Help the players execute the game. Focus. Concentrate. Practice.

Series recap: Jays wake up in Baltimore

September 24-26, 2012

After losing six in a row in the Bronx and at the Trop, the remaining Jays fans who have now turned their eyes elsewhere (not hockey) were looking for a turnaround in Baltimore. And it looks like they got one - a small one, mind you, as they went 2-2 in the four game set.

 

In all, the Jays come back off the road going 2-8, quite disappointing, but frankly, in a best case scenario, with the teams that they were playing and the state of the roster, 4-6 might have been the best to hope for.

On the pitching front, Laffey's effort was by far the highlight of the series. Alvarez, Romero, and Villanueva were not good. The bullpen however was excellent with the exception of Wednesday night's game when Farrell trotted out Carreno, Beck, and Carpenter down by 4, 6, and 8 runs. Janssen also looked rusty in his efforts but managed to get out relatively unscathed.

On the hitting front, Arencibia, Lind, Edwin, and Hechavarria were highlights, while Colby and Lawrie were disappointments.

• JP went 7 for 9 with two walks in the series, after going 2 for 37 with two walks since his injuries. Perhaps he's turned the corner, a great sign. Remember that in the 18 games before his injury, he hit .319 / .349 / .700 (with six home runs) and was really coming together. In Baltimore, he hit a  home run and a double.
• Adam Lind went 6 for 9 in the series (all singles). Since September 11, Adam's hitting 17-51 (.333) with 4 doubles, 2 triples, and a home run for an OPS of .906.  If Lind can end the season on this positive note, it will be difficult to dismiss him as the opening day 1B or DH especially against RHP and the value of his contract.  
• Edwin went 5-16 with two home runs. Edwin, in his last 11 games is batting 12-37 with 4 home runs and 8 walks (OPS 1.106).  
• Hechavarria went 3 for 8 and is running a 9 game hitting streak, batting 10 for 29 with 2 doubles and a home run in that stretch (OPS .889). Since August 23rd, Adieny is hitting (.303 / .329 / .434) over 81 plate appearances and is making the argument to be in the starting lineup next year.

On the awful side, Colby Rasmus went 1 for 12 (two walks) while Brett Lawrie went 2 for 16 (3 walks). Colby's batting .111 in his last 11 games played; Lawrie is batting .170. When your 1-2 in the order has a .255 and .200 OBP respectively, it's hard for Edwin to drive in runs. Bautista had the same problem at the start of the season when Escobar and Johnson headed up the lineup.

 

Monday afternoon: Jays 1 at Orioles 4

 

The Jays continued their offensive drought Monday afternoon, while Henderson Alvarez gave up four runs over 5 2/3rds inning in a step back after three good outings.

Henderson's enemy again was the home run. In the bottom of the fourth, a lead off walk to Chris Davis was followed up by an Adam Jones home run. Alvarez gave up an another home run to Flaherty to open the bottom of the fifth, and Alvarez really started to come undone in the bottom of the sixth, as the Orioles loaded the bases (Jones single, Wieters double, Thome intentional walk) with none out. Mark Reynolds then hit into a double play, scoring Adam Jones. Cecil then came on to finish the frame, and Frasor and Beck finished off the game without any damage being done.

Henderson's line was 5.2 innings pitched. Over 86 pitches, he walked 3, struck out 6, and gave up 2 home runs. The Jays defence was fine that afternoon with no glaring problems or issues.

 

On the offensive side, the Jays threatened (as usual) a few times in the game before breaking through in the eighth inning with two outs. Edwin singled, Lind singled, and Rajai Davis doubled home Edwin. Darren O'Day came on to strike out Kelly Johnson (good guess) to end the threat. Jim Johnson breezed through the last frame to record his 48th (!) save.

 

The rookie Steve Johnson let in 3 hits over five innings of work and looked great, now going 21 scoreless innings over a couple of starts and relief appearances. And besides Tommy Hunter, the rest of the Orioles pitching staff pitched with their usual efficiency.

 

For the Jays hitting, Colby reached twice on walks, and Adam Lind hit twice. Jeff Mathis went 0-2 as did Yunel. Anthony Gose went 0-4.

 

Monday night: Jays 9 at Orioles 4.

An excellent offensive effort by the Jays (Arencibia's 5 RBIs), and a key defensive play by Gose resulted in a Jays win.

The night game featured the struggling Ricky Romero vs Wei-Yin Chen. In this match, the Jays needed some excellent defensive play to win this game. Ricky was truly lucky to end up with the win.

Edwin started off the scoring in the top of the first with a two run home run following a Brett Lawrie walk. Ricky's bottom of the first looked a little shaky with a opening walk.

Chen continued to be shaky in the 2nd. Sierra singled and Visquel doubled to open the inning. JP Arencibia hit a long fly ball to right to advance Visquel and score Sierra. Gose singled to left to score Visquel and it was 4-0 going into the bottom of the 2nd.

But in the bottom of the 2nd, 8 hitters for Baltimore came to the plate as Romero's pitching woes continued. Reynolds singled, then Machado hit a seeing eye single between 3rd and short. Chavez advanced the runners to 2nd and 3rd with two out, but Andino hit a weak single again between short and 3rd to score two runs. Romero then errored allowing Teagarden to reach and McLouth was beaned before Romero got out of the inning. 4-2 after 2.

Romero managed to sail through the 3rd and 4th inning. Romero ran into some trouble in the bottom of the 5th as McLouth paid back Romero for hitting him by hitting a home run. Jones then hit a double and Romero walked two batters, loading the bases before Chavez hit a weak ground ball down the first base side that Romero handled and tagged him out to preserve the lead. Sierra immediately homered in the top of the 5th to give Romero a 5-3 lead going into the 5th, and with Romero having thrown 85 pitches and looking wild, it was really surprising to see him come out and pitch the sixth. I really thought that Farrell would want his bullpen to preserve the win.

In the bottom of the 5th, Romero continued his woes, giving up a double to Andino, a single and a walk, ending Romero's day. Sportsnet had some nice shots of Romero looking quite upset as Brad Lincoln came on to with the bases loaded and none out. JJ Hardy then singled to score a run. Lincoln then settled down and managed to strike out Adam Jones, then a shallowish fly ball by Davis was caught by Jones. Teagarden, the lumbering catcher tagged, and Gose threw a perfect one bounce strike to Arencibia to tag out the Oriole, just barely in time. 5-4 Jays after 6, and Romero was in line for the win.

In the 7th, with Jake Arreita on the mound, the Jays struck again. Encarnacion walked, Escobar singled, and Lind (who pinch hit for Yan Gomes against the righty) singled to load the bases. Sierra then hit into a fielders choice as Reynolds threw out Encarnacion for the force at home, and Visquel popped to short. Then, JP Arencibia, who was hitting 4-39 since his return, decided to hit a just-out-of-the park GRAND SLAM to take the a 9-4 lead.

Lincoln pitched the 7th, Loup the 8th and Janssen came on to pitch the ninth. He looked rusty, giving up 3 singles to load the bases with none out, but Reynolds managed to hit into a double play (scoring one) and Machado struck out to end the ball game.

Tuesday: Jays 4, Orioles 0

Aaron Laffey and the bullpen combine for a shutout, Jays get 13 hits for 2nd night in a row in a well-rounded effort.

Aaron Laffey threw something like 57 innings last year in the Mariners and Yankee organization before being converted into a starter by the Jays this year. So, far this year, Laffey threw 63.2 innings for Las Vegas and 90 innings for the Jays. I think if the Jays didn't have to use Laffey to start, they wouldn't, but with Happ on the bench and playing 10 games in 8 days left little choice for the Jays.

Laffey pitched 5 2/3rds inning, scattering 5 hits, pitching to contact (no walks, no strikeouts). Farrell decided to preserve his arm and took Laffey out of the game with Jones single while the Jays were up 2-0. Farrell then played matchups, putting out Delabar, Cecil (to get one out), and Lyon. Oliver and Janseen then finished the game, and once again Janssen looked rusty, as Escobar bobbled a ball with 1 out, then a popup and two walks later, the bases were loaded with 2 out with the tying run at the plate in Flaherty, who hit a fly ball to end the game.

Offensively, it was another 13 hit effort as every Jay got at least one hit. Gomes recorded an RBI in the first, with a single to score Lawrie in the 1st. In the fourth, Hechavarria hit a long double with two out to knock in Davis from first. The Jays scored two more in the 7th as Rasmus knocked in Arencibia who singled and advanced to second as Gose reached on a an error. Encarnacion then knocked in Gose but Davis threw out Rasmus as he tried to go 1st to 3rd. The throw by Davis was brilliant and just got Rasmus out at 3rd, so I wouldn't blame Rasmus from trying to advance.

Escobar, Gomes, Rajai, and JP Arencibia got two hits each. Arencibia was the only player who walked.

Wednesday: Jays 2 and Baltimore 12

Carlos Villanueva ran out of gas in the 5th inning as the Jays offense runs typically dry. The bullpen's minor leaguers allowed 2 runs each inning to put the game out of reach.

As I wrote in my previous blog entry, Villanueva has been audtioning to be a starter now since he entered the rotation on June 29th. The fear for Villanueva has always been his arm. He injured it last year, and he's never pitched as many innings as he has this year. I think that Villanueva has starter stuff, but that his arm will wear out at some point next year. For that reason, I think Villaneuva would be a perfect fit for the Jays as both Drabek and Hutchinson will be ready mid and late season to replace Carlos.

In the first inning, Edwin and and McLouth exchanged home runs. In the fifth, the Jays scored thir only other run of the game as Gose knocked in Arencibia who doubled on the previous at bat.

But in the bottom of the 5th, Villaneuva's arm had had enough. Villanueva's fastball had topped out at 90mph, and he was relying alot on his slider, change up and curve to get runners out, and he was successful at doing so. Villanueva up until the point was pretty good, throwing 7 strikeouts and walking 1. Jim Thome hit the 1st pitch (a change up) out of the park to tie the game. With two outs, Machado hit a home run (on another change up) to go down 3-2. McLouth and Hardy then singled before Chris Davis hit his 27th home run for his 27th home run (on a slider left up). That ended it for Villaneuva.

Down 6-2, Farrell elected to go to the AAA callups in the bullpen, going with Carreno in the 6th, who walked Wieters and gave up a 2 run home run to Mark Reynolds. In the 7th, Farrell went with Beck. Beck gave up a single to Hardy before Chris Davis hit a 2-run homer. In the 8th, Farrell went with David Carpenter. Lawrie had a terrible throw to allow Reynolds to reach, and then Machado homered. 12-2 after 8.

Offensively, Adam Lind went 3 - 4 (singles), while Arencibia (2B), Encarnacion (HR), Gose, and Hechavarria rounded out the hitting.

So, for Carlos, who may have one outing remaining, he is running on fumes. One might ask why Farrell would run out the Vegas trio to throw innings when down only 4 runs, but I am thinking that he needed to give his bullpen a rest.

Coming up: Jays vs Yankees

The Jays come home now to finish off their disappointing season, getting to hopefully play spoiler against the Yankees, who will be pulling out all the stops to win the division against the Orioles (who will be in Boston). The last series will be against the even more disappointing Minnesota Twins to close out the season.

 

Would the Jays be contending now but for the injuries?

Could the Jays have won 4 more games of the last 29 with an intact lineup? Sure. Does that make them a contender? Maybe.

Listening to Wilner's the Blue Jays talk last night, Wilner believed that "absolutely, the team would be contending right now" if the Jays were not injured. He stated that since the Jays lost Bautista, the team went 11-18.

Let's say that instead of 11-18, they went 15-14. Where would they be in the standings today? On July 16, the Jays were 45-45 (now 56-63), and they were two games back of Detroit (47-43) for the remaining wildcard spot.

Okay, without Bautista, they got swept by the Yankees, but then swept the Boston Red Sox. On Sunday, July 22, the Jays were 48-47, but three games out of a wild card behind the Orioles at 51-44. It's safe to say that the results in the Bronx would not have changed as the Jats lost 6-0 and 6-1. Bautista's bat would not have been a factor.

For the Oakland series at home, July 25th was the last day that we saw Adam Lind and JP Arencibia. The Jays missing those three in the line up would have had no effect on the outcome (The Jays sans Bautista would not have come back from a 8 run disaster by Romero nor a 7-2 decision the day before). So at the end of the Oakland series at home on July 26 (a game that they won), the Jays record was 49-49, 4 games back of Oakland for the final wild card spot. No change to the Jays record thus far purely due to injuries in the starting lineup.

The Jays then won two of three against the Tigers on the weekend series and lost 4-1 on the Sunday game with Cecil pitching against Fister. Without Arencibia, Lind and Bautista, it's safe to say that this loss still would have happened -- the Jays only threatened in the 3rd and 4th inning in this game and the batters up were regulars. So as of July 29, the Jays record is still unchanged at 51-50, 4 games back of the Angels for the final wild card spot.

So, let's be clear. Before the road trip to the west coast, on July 30th, the Jays were 4 games out a playoff spot with a record of 51-50, and there are no games that the Jays really would have won with Bautista, Lind, and Arencibia in the lineup. They either lost by too many runs or weren't due in the lineup to comeup in situations with runners on base.

Anthopoulos therefore would have made the same moves at the trade deadline.

The West Coast has always been particularly hard on the Jays, and with the trade of Snider, the offense really started to lag at this point, and with the Jays without Arencibia, Lind, Bautista, and now Snider out of the lineup, it's safe to say that perhaps the Jays would have won the finale (which they lost 5-3) as there were many opportunities for the Jays but the wrong bats were up. Seattle had just come off of a sweep of Kansas and were playing well. Still, the Jays should have won one game in Seattle. This puts the Jays at 52-52 going into Oakland for the four game series, now games back of Oakland.

So, now the Jays in Oakland and in the first game they lost 4-1 against Alvarez. Cooper went 1-3 (in place of Lind, Gose went 1-4 in place of Bautista, and Gomes went 0-4). Perhaps two hits would have been added by the senior jays. I think they could have won this game as they were threatening a few times where Bautista / Arencibia would have been at bat instead of Gose / Gomes. The Jays win this one if their line up was intact.

The August 3rd game was the 15 inning affair where the Jays lost Lawrie and Rasmus and was the breaking point truly for this team. Still, I will put this in the loss column for the Jays just because I don't think the Jays get out of Oakland with less than one loss. So the Jays go 3-1 in Oakland instead of 2-2, and the Jays are 55-53 out of Oakland (Oakland is then 57-51). This puts the Jays two game out of a wild card spot going into Tampa.

Tampa has never been good to the Jays (7 years since they won a series there), so I am going to put them 1-2 in the series instead of 0-3 (I think the Jays beat Cobb on the Wednesday night game). Jays are 56-55 out of Tampa (who are then 58-53) and are still only three games back of the wild card spot.

Time for a reality check -- It's reasonable that the Jays would go 5-5 on the road. Oakland did not play very well, and the Jays should have taken that series. And winning 2 of 6 against Seattle and Tampa is reasonable.

The Jays then go home to face the Yankees in last weekend's series sans Lawrie, Rasmus, Bautista, Arencibia, and Lind. The Yankees would have won the opener anyway as they won 10-4. The Jays probably don't take Saturday's game either. So, the result of this series remains the same at 1-2. Jays would by 57-57 after New York, 4 games back of a wild card (Tampa would be 61-53, Baltimore 62-53). Also ahead of Toronto: Oakland (60-54), Detroit (61-54) and the Angels (60-55).

This takes us to the current series. It's safe to say I think that the Jays win Tuesday night's game (they lost 3-2) as they were threatening several times and couldn't convert. This puts the Jays right now going into tonight's game at 59-58, 5 games back of Baltimore, 3 back of Tampa (62-55), 2.5 back of Detroit (63-55), 1.5 back of the Angels (62-56) and 1/2 game back of Oakland (60-56).

So, without the injuries, I beleive that the Jays get one win back from each of Seattle, Oakland, Tampa, and Chicago. Instead of the Jays being 55-62, they are 59-58, three games back of a wild card. And I think that this number is bang on. They were .500 going into the Baustista injury and the improvements that the team made at the deadline would not have drastically improved this number.

At the trade deadline, Anthopoulos gave up on the Jays by not adding a good (sorry, Happ) veteran arm to the rotation while other contenders did. He did not believe that the Jays were a contending team being 4 games back just before the Jays left for the west coast.

When you look at the standings today, even with the four extra wins, the Jays would have needed to get by four other teams who would still be doing better than them. Detroit or Tampa are projected to have 87 wins and that's the magic number (Probably it is 88). For the Jays to hit that, they would have needed to go 28-17 against a very difficult schedule. Not impossible, but not likely either.

Wilner would call a team 3, 4, even 5 games out of a wild card a contending team. But given the number of wins they would have to take to make the wild card and the teams that they would have to pass, I would not have called them a contender on July 16th, and I wouldn't have called them a contender today even with 59 wins.  

So yep, blames the injuries for the Jays woes. It's the sad truth, but even without the injuries to the starting lineup, the Jays probably would not be contenders.

Anthony Gose - Jays next superstar?

Will Gose as a centerfielder be as good as Brett Lawrie at 3rd?

Brett Lawrie already is the voice of the Jays. Canadian born and bred from Langley, BC, his natural enthusiasm and dazzle at the glove, I think, is a big drawing card for young fans to the Dome. I've always believed that making Brett the "voice of the Jays" puts a bit too much pressure on him to perform well, but I think that works out well for him. His clutch RISP stats are better than the stats with men not on base. He fields exceptionally well, and he is reasonably quick around the bases. Most of all, Brett Lawrie is aggressive, to a fault. This year, we've seen him make boneheaded moves - an attempted steal of home with Bautista at bat, trying to steal third when already in scoring position, getting tossed and serving a suspension for a bad called strike, and diving over the rails into a deep camera bay. He certainly has passion for the game, and I think that will become more controlled. His batting average hasn't suffered since his debut last year. Brett hits LHP at a pace of .357/.390/.509 while hitting only .253/.302/.379 against RHP. His batting average suffered since the dive into the camera bay. Brett Lawrie was the return for the Shawn Marcum trade.

Philadelphia drafted Gose in the 2008 MLB draft in the 2nd round and immediately went into the Rookie year. Gose went to Houston with JA Happ and John Villar near the trade dealine in 2010 for Roy Oswalt to bolster the Phillies' playoff run. Immediately thereafter, Gose was dealt to Toronto for Brett Wallace.

In the minors, he quickly rose up through the ranks, spending 2008 in the Rookie league, 2009 in A ball, 2010 in Dunedin and Clearwater, 2011 in New Hampshire, and 2012 in Vegas. He never was held back. His running and fielding skills are to be prized. His batting skills, I think, are still very much a work in progress. But in Las Vegas, he batted .293 / .375 / .432 with 10 triples. He can run

With Gose in the outfield, his speed rivals or betters that of Rajai Davis. 5 of his 11 hits are infield hits, meaning that he is outrunning the ball. When Gose bats next to Davis in the batting order, the two of them on base wreaks havoc on the opposition pitching, with the double steal very much in play.

People will criticize his slow start in the majors with a .229 / .275 / .292 start through 48 plate appearances. Chalk that up to sample size, but if you look at his last 10 games, he is batting .270 / .289 / .351 (also a poor sample size), but that points at improvement. Gose is not going to hit a pile of home runs, but he is going to run really, really fast. In New Hamsphire last year, he set a record for the Fisher Cats, stealing 70 bases (getting caught 15 times)

So, I think offensively and defensively, long term, he will be  better than Rajai Davis. Defensively, he will be better. He had 14 assists with New Hampshire last year and 8 for Vegas.

He is only 21 (for four more days) and we are just seeing the start of this athlete's long career. Remember that, fandom, when making criticisms. We have to accept, for example, that as he gets used to major league timing, he will either to attempt to steal less or get caught stealing more. Indeed, in AAA, he got caught 10 times in 39 attempts. And he will make running mistakes, throwing mistakes, and it will him time to grow into a hitter. He wasn't supposed to be here until the start of next season (possibly to replace Rajai). But he is here now.

Anything can happen to this young lad, but I think his future is very very bright. Of course, Lawrie, the Canadian, will be the Jays' poster boy for the next few years - he is the embodiment of the Jays - Canadian, bold, aggressive, articulate, enthusiastic, fun to watch.  

August 2: Oakland 4, Jays 1

Jays can't score - tough outing against Colon

The Blue Jays are without Jose Bautista, JP Arencibia, and Adam Lind, and the walk came back to haunt the team.

It's difficult to win games when you walk people. Toronto leads the AL with 374, 90 more than league leading Texas. That's like giving up one more hit per game. And walks wear out the pitchers, forcing them to throw more pitches, not only to the player at bat, but at the next AB.

Alvarez walked 5 in 5 innings, but none of the walks that Alvarez threw resulted in runs. Alvarez's three earned runs happened in the bottom of the 3rd due to a single, wild pitch, single (to score 1) and a Josh Reddick home run.

Delabar came on in the 6th , and perhaps Oakland had seen alot of him in AL West play, but he looked shaky with two walks and a wild pitch, but got out of the innings without damage.

Happ came on in the 7th inning, and ran into trouble right away, giving up two walks and a single before giving up a bases loaded single to Brandon Inge. The ball was hit to short centre allowing Rasmus to preserve a second run from scoring.

As with most major league starters, the first inning is the 2nd hardest inning to pitch (the sixth is the hardest). JA Happ is no exception -- players OPS is .838 in the first inning, and he gives up .54 walks in the first inning pitched. It takes preparation to start, so when JA Happ is in the bullpen, he needs to prepare and be sharp for that relief appearance. But if JA Happ wants to win a place back in the rotation three things needs to happen: a starter must fail; Happ needs to be stretched out to be able to throw 80 or so pitches in a start; Happ needs to demonstrate that he's good enough to start a game. Well, Happ threw 51 pitches in yesterday's appearance over two innings and 49 pitches 10 days before that, and just hasn't been very good.

On the offensive side, the Jays couldn't put anything together against Colon, sprinking 7 singles over 8 very good innings pitched by the veteran. The Jays only got runners to scoring position in three innings, and their best hope before the 9th was in the 2nd inning when the Jays loaded the bases with two outs, but Rajai hit into a ground ball to end the rally.

The Jays did threaten in the 9th. Moises Sierra got his first RBI as he beat out a double play ball to score Cooper who hit a double into the gap in left to start the inning. Then Lawrie got a single to put the tying at bat in Colby Rasmus on board. Colby hit into a fielder's choice at 2nd to end the game.

With left-handed Doolittle (not their closer) on the mound with one out, I thought the Jays made an interesting choice in batting Moises for Gose. This forced the As to go to their closer righty Ryan Cook to get the final two outs. Now Moises bats right and Gose bats left, and the choice to bat Moises to get a righty-lefty matchup makes sense.

But when you look at the numbers, Doolittle's numbers against lefties are reversed: against lefties he's sporting an OPS of 1.006 while against righties, the OPS is .394. And, Doolittle is a rookie. So, why force the closer to come on who has a fairly equal OPS against righties and lefties at around .490. Sure, Cook walks people at a rate of .5 / inning but he's a far better pitcher.  

But why force the situation? By the numbers, the lefty in Gose should fare better against Doolittle, and Gose has speed. I just think this was the correct choice given the situation. You want to leave in Doolittle, who was struggling, as long as possible, and to force in your closer takes away the opportunity to win.

The Jays are at the lowest point of the season so far, at three games below .500 and 5 and a half out of the 2nd wild card. They are without three of their bigger bats, and they are playing in a pitcher's park. The Jays are a home run hitting team, but they have to manufacture runs on the west coast ballparks. To do that, the players need to relax and not feel so much pressure to perform (Lawrie says there is no pressure) with the injury outages. I think if they can put one win on the board tonight or tomrorrow in Oakland, they'll win the next game too.