Anthopoulos' state of the obvious

The Jays will get better?



Anthopoulos' career ending mistake? Certainly, not a brilliant move.

Expectations for the 2013 Blue Jays were hyped. With no hockey in the fall and Anthopoulos's moves with the jump in payroll, Torontonians, no Canadians, were hyped up to see Canada's baseball team go to the playoffs, and maybe the World Series.

Instead, the Maples Leafs are going to the playoffs, and the 2013 rendition of the Blue Jays have a very long road ahead of them even to reach .500.

So Anthopoulos met with the media today and made the following severely presiced comments: I'm disappointed, but it will get better. It has to.

The long form of the message is that the individual records of each of these players won't allow this team to continue along this path indefinitely. The starting pitching staff should have an ERA of below 4, and hopefully, it should be around 3.8 or 3.7. Certain offensive players should have on-base percentages much higher than they have: Bonificio, Izturis, Bautista, Melky, and even Colby. The defense should get better.

It just has to, right? Not necessarily.

One has to look at WHY the team, collectively, started off as poorly as they did.

Starting pitching

Mark Buehrle, though Mr. Reliable has had bouts of poor pitching. In five starts with the Marlins last year (July 19 - August 10), he went 0-3, pitched 26.1 innings, let in 24 earned runs, and was terrible. Over the final 8 starts, he averaged 6.9 innings per start with a 3.58 ERA. So let's not worry about Mark Buehrle.

RA Dickey's slow start (4.50 ERA) is not unique to him either. Last year, from June 24 to July 24, over 6 start (+ 1 extra inning pitched), he had a 5.36 ERA over 40 innings and a WHIP of about 1.4.

Brandon Morrow's start is not too far out of line with 2011 so far, but we're still waiting for him to have a stellar start where he goes deep into the game.

And Josh Johnson has had bad periods of time, with a 6.61 ERA over his first six starts as a Marlin last year.

But four out of five doing poorly together? What's up with that? Coincidence?

The offense

Even with Maicer's recent hitting spurt, both he and Bonifacio are both having their worst months in their MLB career, together, at the same time.

We know that Adam Lind and Colby can be inconsistent at the plate. Colby's strikeout rate, however, at 45% is very disturbing. And while there are have been short spurts in his career where his strike out rate was 40%, this is unprecented.
Jose Bautista has started off his season horribly. He has yet to have a multi-hit game. His strikeout rate is over 25% and there wasn't a stretch of games last year where he struck out as much. But he had a 25 game stretch last year where he bat .146 / .284 / .270 at the beginning of the year (except the first game). At least this year he's hitting home runs. He warmed up last year and there no reason to expect anything differently this year.

Melky has started the season hitting .250 / .303 / .300 and while he had a stretch of 18 games last year early on when he bat .231 / .301 / .308. But Melky is just lacking power, and it's troubling .You can expect that for missing 2 months of the season last year, and there seems to be no sign that he won't be doing worse.

Brett Lawrie will come around. Edwin will be fine. JP Arencibia is striking out alot too (at just below 40%), but he has done that before and been an acceptable hitter, especially for a catcher. He's hitting for power and that's all that can be asked of him.

But once against, why is all of this poorness all coming together? Is this coincidence too?

 

John Gibbons

John Gibbons was fired after the Milwaukee series in June 2008. The team went through a 4-13 run falling 7.5 games back in the standings from being 3 games to 10.5 games back. 8 of those 13 games losses were one run losses, including 3 walk-offs and 1 come from behind and 2 late loss ties. The team was 10-19 in one run games. In his last game in Milwaukee, down 8-1, the team stormed back in the top of the ninth with one on and two out to score six runs, falling short 8-7 and seal Gibbons' fate.

In 2008, despite the .279 BA, the team produced around 4 runs per game. Run production suffered dearly under Gibbons.

Sound familiar?

So I wondering what kind of job John Gibbons is doing, and whether Alex Anthopoulos will do the same thing that JP Ricciardi felt like he had to do: fire John Gibbons.

Looking back at the Miked up blog entries (Mike Wilner's daily writings on the Blue Jays) from 2008, it's pretty clear that some major similarities are happening: run production was a huge issue and the Jays are finding ways to lose, especially late in the game by one run. Why?

Is it beyond luck? Baseball at this level is simply more than about numbers. It's about momentum, spirit, and team.

And with so many players performing below average at the same time, you just feel like it has to do with the coaching staff more than coincidence. And given that this has happened before with the same manager, you have to wonder...

Lineups are changing every day. That has to be a bit disconcerting to the players. Yes, the players are to blame, too, but you can't fire the team. The bullpen is doing fine, and they're not on the bench. I really think that this team is quite down right now, and needs an inspirational leader to lead them through. When the team starts performing poorly collectively, it's up to the managerial staff to fix the problem.

Gibbons doesn't have that capability. He didn't in 2008, and nothing sugggests that he does now, unlike Joe Girardi, who can take a team with severe injuries and put together a winner. Unlike Buck Showalter who has found a way for his Orioles to win a bunch of 1 run games and make the playoffs. Unlike Joe Maddon, and now, perhaps, unlike John Farrell.

The team has got to get better. But will it?

The 2001 Oakland Athletics

Are the 2013 Jays the 2001 Oakland Athletics? Who knows?

Jason Giambi.
Oakland started the season at 8-18 before going on
to get 102 wins for the season.

Jays start off 8-13. Are they done?

Rogers apologists like to look at the 2013 rendition of the Jays and say that's it's early. The fandom have all but concluded that this team is done and that drastic measures must be taken.

I took a look at the records of all playoff and likely playoff teams (those teams who would have made an enhanced wild card playoff) and looked for teams who were 5 OR more game under .500 after 20 - 22 games played and looked at the last 17 years of data (1996-2012) when a full season was played with the current division format seen.

Of 170 teams that would have made the playoffs in both leagues, there are 5 instances of playoff teams with 90 or more wins in a season who had a record of 8-13 or worse. That gives the Jays, if they were an average team a 3% probability of making the playoffs assuming 90 wins or more are needed.

These teams include the 2010 Atlanta Braves who started the season 8-13 before going on to win 91 games and a wildcard berth, the 2009 Colorado Rockies with the identical 8-13 record to win 92 and a wildcard, the 2005 Cleveland Indians (91 wins, 5th) and San Francisco Giants (91 wins, 5th). But the most notable comeback in modern memory is the 2001 Oakland Athletics.

The 2001 Oakland Athletics

On April 25, 2001, the Oakland Athletics dropped a 2-1 extra inning game to the White Sox to go to 7-14 on the season. The next game, they whalloped the White Sox 16-6 before losing 3-2, 7-6, and 3-1 to the Yankees over a three game sweep. Then they went home to host Buck Martinez's Jays on May 1 where they dropped a 5-4 affair and their record dropped to a dismal 8-18.

This was a team whose lineup at that point featured Johnny Damon (OPS .549), Frank Menechino (1.040), Jason Giambi (1.135), Terrence Long (.926), Eric Chavez (.742), Miquel Tejada (.748), Olmedo Saenz (.699), Jeremy Giambi (.556), and Ramon Hernanzez (.616).

In April, the A's starters had an (.288/.359/.460) line and a 5.83 ERA which improved massively to 3.10 after the All Star Break. This was a rotation of Mark Mulder (4.40 ERA), Barry Zito (4.58 ERA), Cory Lidle (4.96), Tim Hudson (6.35) and Gil Heredia (9.24). Gil was eventually replaced by Eric Hiljus.

The team then went on a 15-5 tear, sweeping the Jays in Toronto, the Yankees and the White Sox. But even then, the team hovered around the .500 mark until the All-Star break - the team was 44-43 and 19 games back of the high-flying Mariners.

The team went 58-17 to wrap the season with 102 wins. Jeremy Giambi ended up batting with an OPS of .841. They still managed to lose the division to the Seattle Mariners but made the playoffs before losing to the Yankees in the ALDS.

The Jays are actually a good team

On paper, this team certainly has the capability to turn it around. The Jays' offense is sputtering but the starting rotation has shown their talent now to keep the Jays in the game and the bullpen has been surprisingly good as well. Now it is up to Gibbons and the offense to start moving and start scoring more than 4 runs a game on a consistent basis and to start winning close games.

Someone has to step up to the plate to become the leadoff hitter and Gibby has to leave them there. I don't like the momentary lineups based on a streak of 3-4 games. That just shakes up the hitters and shows that Gibby is panicking. Gibby needs to decide on a leadoff tandem to start the game leading off and just leave it as it is. Those person is the duo of Bonifacio and Davis (Davis faces LHP, Bonifacio RHP).

Bonfacio is a lead off hitter and has played the majority of his career leading off. With Jose gone, put Bonifacio in the #1 spot and let his true talent show. Emilio is NOT A BUM, but he is certainly lacking plate discipline right now. His career walk / strike out ratio is close to 1:2 (not the 1:6 it is currently). Let him play against RHP, and let Rajai play against LHP. The speed will and the stolen base will be factors, which will only help Cabrera, who should be left in the #2 hole.

These are really your best options, and putting Kawasaki in the leadoff spot is insanity. His numbers are rapidly coming down to earth.

Let the long term numbers play themselves out and give your players a chance to gel. Don't hit the panic button *yet*. Wait a week.

Don't blame the bullpen!

Jays bullpen has lost six games so far, most in the AL

The bullpen has lost 6 of the 12 games this season, more than any other team in the AL. However, its bullpen is 7th in the AL in ERA at a very respectable 3.24.

The pen is also very hard worked with 72.1 innings pitched over 20 games. Let's look at each bullpen loss and see who is to blame.

April 3: Sergio Santos loses 3-2 in 11 innings.

A disappointing loss as Jose Bautista hits the game tying home run in the bottom of the 9th, in a game where the Jays manage only 5 hits. Sergio then gives up a home run in the top of the 11th to Mark Reynolds. When you score only two runs in a game, it's difficult to win.

Fault: lack of offence.

April 5: Esmil Rogers loses the game in the 8th. Boston wins 6-4.

This is the bullpen and Izturis' fault. Esmil game on with one out in the 8th, walked, gave up a double, and Napoli got the RBI for Boston to get the 5-4 lead on a play where Izturis couldn't field the ball and throw home. Gibbons then put on Jeffries in the 9th who gave up the insurance run via the home run. This was also the famous game where Bonifacio commits three errors.

Fault: the infielders and Esmil.

April 14: Darren Oliver loses the game in the 9th as KC beats Toronto 3-2.

This was Oliver's fault, but the Jays were unable to score more than 1 earned run against Santana. Bonifacio's throw to the plate could have been in time, but you can't fault Bonifacio early in the season for making an off-line throw when he never plays RF.

Fault: the lack of offense.

April 16: Steve Delabar loses the game in the top of the 9th. Chicago beats the Jays 4-2.

This may have been poor defense on Bonifacio's part as he couldn't catch up to a double that perhaps Colby or Rajai does. He took a terrible line to the ball. However, Delabar gave up two walks to open the frame, and you've get to expect at least one of those runs to score. Blame Delabar on this one, but once again, blame the Jays offense for failing to score more than 2 runs.

Fault: Delabar and lack of offense

April 20: Aaron Loup loses the game on his throwing error in the 11th as the Yankees win 5-3.

Aaron Loup makes a bad throw to third on an Ichiro bunt which costs him the game. And he gave up two lead off singles. Bad things happen. Blame Aaron on this one.

Fault: Aaron. But he took a shot at third to keep a double play in order.

April 22: Aaron Loup loses the game 2-1 to the Orioles in the bottom of the 9th due to Kawasaki error.

With runners on 1st and 2nd with two out, a standard double play ball eats up Kawasaki and he inexplicitly throws it to first but too late. Markasis then walks off via a nicely hit bloop single to left field. But once again, this is due to a lack of offense.

Fault: Kawasaki, lack of offense.

So whose fault is it?

When the bullpen is on average playing 3.6 innings per game and giving up an average of about 1.3 runs per game, that's pretty fantastic, really. When your defense is not making great plays (Bonifacio, Kawasaki, Izturis) behind you, you stand to lose. When the offense is not scoring any runs against pitchers that other teams manage to score on, you have to look at the anemic offense.

In all of these cases, the Jays are tied which puts the bullpen under pressure. The Jays have yet to blow a save, and this is incredible.

So spread the blame folks. This isn't the bullpen's fault at all. It's the lack of offense and poor defense behind them that puts pressure on them.

And the bullpen was not supposed to be the stars of this team. It was supposed to be the offense and the starting pitching.

What to do about them Boo Jays?

It's been quite disappointing to watch the 7-11 Blue Jays muddle through the very young season, and the Rogers apologists think that there's no reason to worry, but there is.

For the Jays to make the playoffs they will need to go at least 86-58 to reach 93 wins, and even that might not be enough. That's a .600 record. Are the Jays  on the field today capable of playing .600 ball. Absolutely. But will they? Absolutely not.

The good

There are bright spots on this team, to be sure. We know that the starting rotation are CAPABLE of great starts, and we've seen the bright spots from Dickey, Johnson, and Morrow. We know that Mark Buehrle is a 4 ERA pitcher in the AL, and that means we should expect at least 1/2 of his starts to be quality ones. And JA Happ is the #5 starter and anything under a 5 ERA is good for him.

We know that JP Arencibia and Jose Bautista are performing to expectations, each putting bombs out of the park. We also see patches of sunshine from Adam Lind and Edwin and hopefully that will become consistent as the season wears on. We know that Adam is streaky and we'll need to see how that plays out over the season.

A welcome suprpise is the bullpen. Janssen, Delebar, Loup, Rogers, Cecil, and Santos are performing better than expected. Darren Oliver has been shaky, but the bullpen as a whole has been very good, especially given the early season pressure.

The ugly

But we've seen blowouts from each of the pitchers too. It's easy to point at the defense tell them to do their job, and indeed, defence is lacking when Jose is not playing right field and with a hole at 2B. But it's the pitcher's job to make sure they don't get on base. I attribute 4 of 11 losses to awful starts. Dickey's initial outing was bad because Arencibia clearly couldn't catch the knuckleball in front of 50,000 people.

The other losses were due to lack of hitting. This team should be hitting much better than they are. You can excuse the team for giving up in the blowouts, absolutely. But when you're consistently not outputting runs, you are not going to win games, and you can't always stick it into your bullpen's or defense's hands to be perfect in order to hold a tie game or a slim lead all of the time because you can't score. The bullpen and defence are the weaker parts of this team, especially at 2B (all the time) and when Bautista's not playing RF. 


Edwin started the season with a drought and has warmed up, as has Adam Lind. Rasmus, who, when he makes contact with the ball, REALLY makes contact and is batting like a DH with tons of strike outs. The problem is that Jose Bautista and JP Arencibia have the same hitting style, meaning a low OBP and the inability to string together hits to score plenty of runs.

And when the rest of the team isn't hitting around you, the home runs are not meaningful. Brett Lawrie (who inexplicitly bat 6th when just getting back into MLB action) will get better.

But there are other players on the team who are underperforming. Melky's start has been bad as well with a complete outage of power for the #2 spot in the lineup.
With Reyes and Bautista out of the line up for a time, there was certainly weakness in the line up that left Cabrera unprotected, meaning that they could really focus on him, because the threats around him were fairly weak.
Emilio Bonifacio needs to step up his game: a .232 OBP is unacceptable for a player who has above .300 in OBP for the last five seasons. His fielding has been atricious, especially at 2B. The same message goes to Maicer, with his .200 OBP so far. His career OBP has been above .320 for each of the last six seasons. Something is wrong here. Rajai's been good, and he deserves every day action because he's just as fast as Bonifacio, gets on base more, and is not a defensive liability. The problem with Rajai of course is that he's weak against RHP.

Blame the Coaching Staff?

So who do you blame? It's easy to say it's the coaching staff and in particular the change out of Mottola for Murphy. Maybe so. Sportsnet staff are quick to point out how a coach has been helping out a player. If that is the case, then why is the team suffering as a whole?

Certainly you can blame managerial staff for poor decisions. That includes putting the wrong people in the lineup, making poor choices for pitching changes, and being too aggressive or not aggressive enough on the baselines. For example, Brett Lawrie is finally hitting #8 in the lineup today. Why would you throw him in the six spot when he has NO MLB experience this year in hitting? 

But players who are performing well just need maintenance when it comes to coaching, and if you're a good player, you will continue to be good. If you're performing poorly, you're going to need help from the coaching staff, and we'll see what comes of it. Can you blame the coaching staff? I don't know.

Things to change

Don't think about changing the starting rotation or the bullpen. They are fine. Of course the starting line up needs to be tweaked to reflect individual performances.

Something needs to change on this team. Both Maicer and Emilio HAVE to get better. We know Brett Lawrie WILL get better.

There are too many people on the team GEARED to swing for the fences. And of course, the lead off spot is dead because Jose Reyes is out until probably the end of June at the earliest. Kawasaki is not going to always have a .375 OBP -- he is far outperforming his position and will have to come down to earth. That means that one of Rajai or Emilio will have to step up and we know that Rajai will not be the one against RHP.

Perhaps now is the time to pull the plug on Colby, trade him with Bonifacio, and get a strong 2B in return. Bring in Anthony Gose, who is more of a contact hitter and can run. And get prepared to replace Kawasaki at SS as well as he is just due to slide.

Holy Resurrection! John Gibbons redux

Fired manager returns to the Blue Jays

Anthpolous and Gibbons in the ceremonial jersey giveaway
Rene Johnson / TorStar

Everyone in the baseball world was taken aback by the hiring of John Gibbons as the new manager of the Blue Jays. Even John Gibbons himself seemed to be out of words when he spoke of his hiring. And clearly, as much as when Cito's rehiring was out of the blue, this hiring was as well. Reviews of the hiring have been mixed, with an overwhelmingly positive bias in Toronto but a negative bias elsewhere.

In my opinion, Gibbons had his chance to manage the Jays and he failed. He went to a bench coach for the Royals for 3+ seasons and then ended up managing the AA San Antonio Missions last year.

The Jays and those who are happy about the hiring gloss the incidents with Hillenbrand and Ted Lilly. And there are probably other incidents out there that were unreported as well. His record as manager was 305-305, but his record should have been better than it was. Whether that's due to poor managing or bad luck is unclear, but his pythagorean win-loss should have been led to more actual wins.

2006 was by far his most successful year. With five regulars batting .300+ and nine players with an OPS over .800, (Overbay, Glaus, Catalanotto, Wells, Rios, Hillenbrand, Reed Johnson, Zaun!, and Hinske), and Roy Halladay, AJ Burnett and Lilly on the mound, the Jays were indeed formidable, and they wound up 87-75 but finished well out of a playoff spot 8 games back of the Detroit Tigers.

2007 should have been a better year for the Jays. They ended up 83-79, but the hitting went significantly downhill and the pitching went significantly better.

But 2008 is telling. The Jays started under Gibbons going 35-37 and finally, in Milwaukee, Gibbons was unceremoniously fired and replaced with Cito Gaston, who had a very veteran friendly management style. After that point in time, the Jays went 51-37 and despite an 86 win season, finished 4th in the AL.

People point out that Gibbons knew how to manage a bullpen. My experience is that he pulled pitchers too soon. The pythagorean win-loss was always higher than the actual results, and usually, I attribute that result to managing over pure luck.

And while the Hillenbrand battle might have been necessary, the Lilly one was not. Clearly both player and manager might have been frustrated blowing an 8 run lead in the 3rd inning, but the end result of a fight in the dugout tunnel was not the correct result.

And no one hired Gibbons once he was gone. His career went downhill. There are far more successful managers with colorful histories, such as Billy Martin, who could both get into fights and successfully manage a team. And there are other experienced managers out there who were capable of managing the club.

So, while the Sportsnet and some other Toronto outlets paints this in a positive light, I just can't. this guy is just mediocre, at best. 

People who are negative on the deal state that management really can't affect wins and losses anyway, and I don't buy that. Managers make critical decisions in lineups, bullpen matchups, pinch hitters and runners, defensive shifts, steals, hit and runs, and other in-game decisions.

Cito, for example, never used the running game and favored his veterans, while Farrell used stealth and the running game to generate runs. That is why the Jays did so well in converting runs despite the poor batting average and OBP. In another example, Farrell utilized the defensive shift extensively in order to save runs, and as a result, the Jays finished 2nd in MLB in defensive runs saved.

I'm not sure Gibbons managed his lineup very well either. In 2006, it was pretty consistent, in that the lineup usually was Johnson - Catalenotto - Wells - Glaus - Overbay at the start of the line up and Hill / McDonald-Adams at the bottom of the lineup.

But in 2007, the lineup was a hodgepodge. Rios - Wells - Johnson at the top of the order and just an irregular lineup throughout. I wonder how the players performed as a result of that. Well, it seemed like the team just couldn't put it together hitting-wise in 2007 as Wells, Overbay, and Johnson had significantly worse seasons.

It will be interesting to see what Gibbons brings to the table in 2013. He has been given alot of tools. The team has already pretty agreed that the top four of the lineup will be Reyes - Cabrera - Bautista - Encarnacion, with Lind, Lawrie, Rasmus, Arencibia (Buck), and Bonafacio / Izturis wrapping the lineup. Of course with Lind, Rasmus, and Arencibia being inconsistent, that part of the order will undoubtably change. Gibbons clearly has the tenacity to move the lineup around based on performance and will undoubtably ruffle sensitive feathers (think Rasmus) in doing so.

Certainly, Gibbons personality is much much different than Farrell. John Farrell seems to be an accountant out there, uncomfortable with his emotions, very much under control and not really having the ability to manage a large group of players. Gibbons on the other hand, even by this press conference, seems to be quite emotional and passionate. The players will need to get used to his style of leadership and passion.

It will be interesting to see how Gibbons manages the running game with speed being an incredible weapon this year with Reyes, Bonafacio, and Davis on the team (and Gose late in the summer). Both Gibbons and Gaston underutilized the running game, while Farrell might have overexploited it. I expect to see Rajai stay put a fair bit more and expect to see alot more discipline on the basepaths. Still, I hope to see about 120 stolen bases in total from the club next year, with Bonafacio, Reyes and Davis leading the pack. I hope to see Davis utilized late in the game for running speed especially if a Lind, Rasmus, or Arencibia gets on base.

It will also be interesting to see how Gibbons utlilizes the defensive shift, which John Farrell used extensively in 2012.

Who will Gibbons bring to him as coaches? Don Wakamatsu (bench), Dwayne Murphy (hitting), Bruce Walton (pitching), Rivera, and Walker (bullpen) remain on the club right now.

I suspect that only Bruce Walton will remain (he was bullpen coach under Gibbons), but that Murphy and Wakamatsu might be gone. That wouldn't be terrible news. Wakamatsu was fired from the Mariners reportedly for a fracas between him and Figgins. Who will Gibbons will bring in as base coaches. Will the Jays see Ernie Whitt return as bench coach? Maybe see Roberto Alomar on the field as a base coach? With Anthopoulos at the helm, one never knows, but in the press conference, he promised an answer in the next couple of weeks.

Well, the transformation seems to be mostly complete. The Jays have depth at catching which I think they'll use to hire their final bench player, another starter, or even an experienced 2nd baseman. The AAA minor league seems sufficiently stocked in the outfield with Gose, Sierra, Perales, and Nanita. D'Arnaud will catch. Hughes, McCoy, Goins/Woodward, and Cooper will be in the infield. The pitching staff will be a mixed bag to be sure, but expect Jenkins to start in AAA.

The "why" behind Anthopolous' move is pretty clear. Anthopolous, in securing the mega-deal and hiring a manager he knows quite well, is pretty much putting the season and the success of the Jays on his shoulders. By hiring someone who is a known, Anthopolous cannot blame anyone else but himself if the Jays do not succeed next year. He's putting that on himself, and that's an admirable thing.

What's clear is that there are more moves to come as this crazy off-season continues.

September 2: Rays 9, Jays 4

Romero pitches pathetically; game finished early

After a very nice outing in New York against the Yankees where Romero gave up only 2 earned runs over seven innings, the fans were looking forward to Romero building off that game and hopefully finish up the season on a positive note. With David Price on the mound (2nd in the AL in ERA), it would be a tall order.

Unfortunately, the game was over very early for Ricky. In the bottom of the 1st with two out, Rajai pretty much missed a Longoria fly ball to left field that resulted in a run against Ricky. Rajai just didn't pick up the ball in time. Then in the 2nd, Ricky threw a 1-2 cutter for a home run against Ben Francisco. Carlos Pena then walked (plunking the ump in the process). Davis then hesitated on what should have been a single to Roberts (which turned into a double). That put runners on 2nd and 3rd with none out. Molina then singled, scoring another run. Jennings singled on the next pitch to score another run. Sierra then lost a ball in the sun and the ball bounced away from him, loading the bases, still with none out. Ben Zobrist then singled in two runs poast a diving Escobar to end Romero's afternoon. Romero's line: 7 runs on 8 hits, 1+ innings, 1 BB, 0K, and 43 pitches.

Chad Jenkins came in and gave up a run to Upton on a sacrfiice fly. After the top of two, it was 7-0 Rays. The Jays did threaten in the bottom of the 2nd, as Price gave up 3 walks to load the bases, but the Jays could not hit anyone home. Carlos Pena opened the 3rd with a deep home run against Jenkins (8-0 Rays). Tampa scored another another run from a Francisco ground rule double that knocked in Longoria (double). Chad Jenkins was acceptable in the 5th and 6th inning. And by the end of 6 it was 9-0 Rays.

The Jays did score 2 in the 7th off David Price, as Hechavarria singled, Rajai walked, and Colby singled to load the bases with 1 out. Edwin then hit a sacrific fly and Adam Lind singled on a high bouncing ball off the plate to score the two runs. Smart baserunning by Colby on Lind's single as third was left completely open on Lind's ground ball. Price then left the game (6.2 IP, 6 hits, 2 runs, 4 walks, 5Ks). Badenhop then came on to get Escobar to ground into a fielder's choice.

Laffey threw three innings of 3 hit ball, striking out three and walking 2. The Jays had a sputter of 9th inning offence as Colby singled and Edwin hit his 37th home run into the bullpen in left.

Final score: 9-4.

Offensively, Davis walked once in an 0-4 outing. Moises bat 0-4 again. Rasmus had a 2-4 afternoon, with all the others hit once. The Jays allowed 18 hits.

What is wrong with Ricky Romero? I still think it's definitely his head. In a game against David Price, he knew that he would have to be on top of his game to have a shot at winning. Rajai Davis' play to allow Roberts to reach 2nd took away the double play in the top of the 2nd. Sierra's loss of the ball in the sun did not help the cause. The ground ball singles were close to players. But mostly, Ricky just was not sharp and not mentally prepared to pitch this game. No excuses. If Ricky is going to succeed he has to get his mental game in order. Until that happens, you are going to see some very inconsistent starts. In the post game comments, Ricky had alot to say:

 Is any of it psychological? Do you go out there and feel like, ‘Here we go again?’
“No. Felt pretty good today. Just left some fastballs up. Other [hits] fell for them that inning. That’s just the way the game is. Everything went their way today.”

There’s probably no easy answer, but do you have any guesses about what may be wrong with you this year?
“No idea.”

Did the two days’ extra rest in New York help?
“No. I’m a starter in the big leagues and you’ve got to be ready to go every fifth day....  These performances have been rough. It’s tough to hear boos from your own fans. It’s tough to see your teammates going out there to battle every day. It’s been tough, it’s been stressful. But at the same time, you’ve just got to come back ready to work.”

Are you out of answers?
“Yeah. What more else can I say? It’s worn on me. I was born a winner. Going through something like this I’d never wish upon anyone.”

The thing is, Ricky, is that it is psychological.

September 1: Rays 5, Blue Jays 4

Turnaround is fair play as Omar hugs Molina to end the game



Tom Szczererbowski / Getty Images


Yesterday's game featured two outfield assists including a fantastic game-ending play by Moises Sierra and Jeff Mathis to end the game. Unfortunately, the Rays executed poetic justice today, ending the game with their own play from BJ Upton to ex-Jay Jose Molina to tag out a pathetic-looking Omar Visquel in the bottom of the ninth.

The game featured number #5 starter Henderson Alvarez against the returning Jeff Niemann, who fractured his ankle on May 14 on an Adam Lind line drive.

Alvarez and Niemann looked excellent at the start, as Alvarez faced the minimum seven hitters while Niemann retired the first ten.

Alvarez's poor inning came in the 3rd. With one out, Ryan Roberts hit his 9th homer. Henderson then walked Loboton and gave up a single to Desmond Jennings. BJ Upton then hit a slower grounder to Hechavarria that should have been a double play ball. But Johnston's connecting throw to Edwin was very high and caused Edwin to jump for the ball, allowing Upton to reach and prolong the inning. With two out, Ben Zobrist hit a double to the right field corner, scoring Loboton. Alvarez then walked Longoria on four pitches, loading the bases, before giving up a double in the left-gap to Matt Joyce, scoring two. At the middle of three, it was 4-0 Tampa.

Jeff Niemann's comeback was stymied, though. With one out in the bottom of the 4th, Niemann was forced out the game with "arm tightness". It appears to be nothing serious. On came Howell. The Jays immediately took advantage as Colby earned a walk and Edwin hit his 36th no-doubt about it home run to the third level at the dome, a beautiful shot. Lind grounded out, but Torrealba singled and Kelly Johnston walked. At that point, Maddon had seemed enough and brought in Wade Davis to retire Moises with two left on.

Alvarez got into a bit more trouble in the fifth, allowing two to reach with one out before Evan Longoria hit into a double play.

Alvarez's line was not good. 5 innings pitched, 5 hits, four runs, all earned, and 4 walks. He threw only 86 pitches. Alvarez has had five quality starts in his last eighteen starts back to May 20, and is sporting an ERA of 6.37, a WHIP of 1.7, and opposing pitchers are hitting a .908 OPS off of him. His K/BB ratio was 4:3.

Matt Joyce scored a solo homer in the top of the 8th off Brad Lincoln to gave the Rays a 5-2 lead. It was Lincoln's first run scored against in 6 outings.

The Jays left it to the 8th inning to start its comeback. Hechavarria opened the inning with the double off of Peralta. Rajai then hit an infield single to move Hechavarria over to third. Colby struck out. Edwin was walked. Adam Lind then came through with a single to score two and get the Jays within one. Joe Maddon had seemed enough and brought in his closer with one one. Rodney then walked McCoy, but struck out Johnston and Sierra to end the 8th.

The game wasn't over though, and in the 9th, the Jays threatened again. Omar Visquel walked, and Hechavarria sacrified him over two second. Rajai then failed to advance the runner with a fly ball to center. Colby Rasmus then managed to turn over a 100mph heater to stroke a single to centre. Omar, with two out, was running on the pitch. But BJ Upton's throw home ended up a bit high after the bounce. Omar was coming behind Molina to slide into home, but Molina ended up stepping back to catch the ball, inadvertently blocking Visquel's path, causing him to go further outside to avoid a calamatous collision. Molina caught the ball and applied the tag to Visquel as he was crawling back to the plate. Game over.

So, some thoughts about Omar Visquel. His "clutch" baserunning is terrible. He got caught stealing 2nd against Valverde as a pinch runner on August 22, for example, but the alternatives left on the bench was Escobar and Mathis. Escobar might have been a better choice, but his baserunning leaves alot to be desired as well. In retrospect, Escobar would have been the better choice, but you have to give Tampa full credit for getting the out at home. Should Visquel have bowled Molina over? Maybe, but Visquel would have lost that battle too, and you can't expect a 45 year old hall-of-famer to bowl over the respected veteran. In fact, after the out, Visquel gave Molina a pat which was very sportsmanlike, and it appears that Molina had some (probably kind)  words to say to Visquel while he was trying to reach for home plate.

And some thoughts about Henderson Alvarez. I think it's time for him to be shut down. He had 155 innings pitched so far this year, after only pitching 63 major league innings last year (and 96 minor league innings). His outings have been inconsistent at best, and his numbers require alot of run support in order for the Jays to have a shot at winning. With his 5+ ERA (that is not improving) and short outings (less than 90 pitches on average), it's time to give Jenkins or Laffey a view. With respect to next year, it's questionable whether Alvarez would make it into the rotation.

Romero, Morrow and Happ are presumable locks. If the Jays sign Villanueva to a contract (and they should) and go out and get a free agent starter in the off season (which they better), then the starting rotation will be complete, and Henderson will either start the season as the journeyman in the bullpen (with lefty Perez) or in the minors.

Offensively, the Jays managed 7 hits and 7 walks against the Tampa pitchers. The Jays left 7 on base. Moises went 0-4 and struck out three times. Rasmus walked twice and got a key hit in the game. Johnson got no hits but walked. Everyone else got a hit.

Tomorrow's outing  features a battle of the aces. Ricky Romero came off a great start over 7 innings against the Yankees, allowing two runs and five hits over seven innings in a tough 2-1 loss. Romero will have his work cut out for him against nemesis David Price, who after 12 quality outings (1.56 ERA, .182 BA, .857 WHIP) had a stinker against the Yankees, letting in 6 runs over 4 innings.

August 30: Tampa Bay 0, Jays 2

Brilliant pitching efforts set the tone

Carlos Villanueva has been a welcome addition to stabilize the starting rotation. While a couple of his outings have not been quality starts, he has given his team the opportunity to win. Some of his stuff is electric. Certainly, he has been performing as a number 3 starter this year. He wants to start next year, and I think that as long as his arm can remain healthy through the year, he should be given the chance. As a starter now, over 11 starts, he is pitching to an ERA of 3.03 and a WHIP of 1.08. Over 65 1/3 innings, he has struck out 65, for a rate of 8.95K / 9 and 2.3 BB/9. Certainly, this is starter stuff.

The Jays are capping him at about 100 pitches, which for Carlos, works out to about 6 innings. His outing against the White Sox where he threw 85 pitches over 7 was his most recent best outing. He's pretty good.

Tonight was no exception. Tampa pitching since the all-star break has been phenomenal with an ERA of 2.91 for starters and a ridiculous 1.21 ERA for relievers. And August has been tighter with a pitching ERA of 2.82 for starters and 0.93 for relievers. So, for the Jays to win, pitching would have to be very tight. And it was.

The sum of Toronto's offense was a Kelly Johnson double in the bottom of the 1st with the bases loaded and two out as Moore was a little bit wild. After that point, the Jays threatened a couple of times with two outs but wasn't able to put any insurance on the board. The Jays did not have any real baserunning errors or offensive gaffes. Colby, Edwin, Mathis, and Hechavarria were kept off the hit list. Escobar reached base three times out of four with two singles and a walk. Kelly Johnson also went two for four.

Carlos Villanueva only really got into trouble in the 2nd with two singles to open the frame. A sac bunt put Tampa's two runners in scoring position with one out. Then, a short pop out and a strike out ended the inning. Carlos then proceeded to strike out 5 more in a row, tying the franchise record for consecutive strikeouts at 6 (JA Happ also struck out 6 in a row a couple of weeks ago) before Matt Joyce ruined the party with a pop out to left.

Darren Oliver, Brad Lincoln, and Casey Janssen were perfect in their final three innings of relief, striking out 4, walking none.

So, a great opener to the series. For tomorrow's tilt, it's a battle between Brandon Morrow, on his 2nd start after being injured, and Jeremy Hellickson.

I really feel that the Jays are starting to turn a corner now, having won 3 of the last 4. Let's hope they can wrap August on a positive note. The Jays pitching staff seems somewhat rejuvenated with Morrow back in the clubhouse. Romero pitched great on Tuesday night. JA Happ pitched well enough. Carlos pitched great. And the bullpen is also pitching well again.

Even with Bautista out, there is enough offense there to be potent. Only Hechavarria and Moises are the rookies remaining in the line up. Escobar has woken up finally. Lind is not looking foolish at the plate.

August 22: Jays 2, Tigers 3

Laffey has best outing, defence, Jays offense lacking

Aaron Laffey, in his 11th start as the Jays #2 starter, was looking for his second quality start in a row after being touched up by the Yankees, White Sox, and Oakland. He pitched wonderfully but his defense really let him down tonight.

Laffey pitched to the mininum through 13 batters, fooling the Detroit offence, keeping the ball down with only one fly ball out. Then, Omar Infante hit a verifiable double into the gap in left-centre. Davis bobbled the ball and this allowed Infante to stretch the double into a triple. Laffey then pitched a couple of wild pitches to the newly minted Blue Jay catcher Torrealba, and on the second one Infante scored.

Then in the bottom of the fifth, a Delmon Young single and a hit-and-run out put Delmon into scoring position. A solid Jeff Baker single to right put the ball into Moises Sierra's hands with Delmon rounding third. Unfortunately, Moises airmailed the ball about 30 feet left of home, and Delmon easily scored. If that throw would have been anywhere near the plate, Delmon would have been dead to rights.

And in the bottom of the sixth, Hechavarria, playing short, bobbled a ball, allowing Austin Jackson to reach. A sacrifice bunt and an intentional walk put Jackson and Cabrera at 2nd and 1st with one out. Fielder than singled, and Rajai got the ball with time to throw out Jackson who was running home. The ball did get there in time even though Rajai threw the ball short. The umpire did call Jackson out, but Mathis (who was now catching as Torrealba was forced to play 1st when Cooper hurt his neck diving back to first on a tagup) dropped the ball.

So, though Laffey pitched great, the defense let him down on three separate plays, and it cost him the game.

Laffey's line was 6 innings + one batter, 5 hits, 2 ER (3R), over 90 pitches (51 strikes), striking out 2 and walking 3. But really, perhaps one run of three should have scored. Laffey, for the most part kept his composure and pitched well.

The Jays offense on the other hand featured a missing Escobar (who is now a proud father) whose offense won't be missed (in his last 21 games he his hitting to an OPS of .457 and a sub .200 batting average) and an infield of McCoy - Hechavarria - Johnson - Cooper (replaced by Torrealba). It was good to see Torrealba playing and perhaps he can absolutely platoon with Mathis until Arencibia returns.

The Jays threatened in the 2nd with a double by Sierra and a walk to Torrealba with one out but Johnson nor McCoy could not cash Sierra in. The Detroit defense allowed Toronto to score a run in the 6th as the Rajai Davis show (walk, stolen base, pickoff attempt airmailed to centerfield) was on. Edwin cashed Davis and advanced to 2nd on a fielding error, but Mathis and Sierra couldn't score Encarnacion.

Hechavarria then RBId (a sacrifice fly) in Torreabla who singled to lead off the 7th and advanced to third on a McCoy single. McCoy then stole 2nd base. Rajai couldn't cash in McCoy.

The Jays threatened again in the 8th with an Encarnacion walk and a Moises Sierra single putting runners on first and second with two out, but Torrealba flied out.

And finally, an Omar Visquel single with two out in the top of the ninth with a faint home and Rajai Davis out. But the Jays sent Omar to steal second and he was caught. A steal of course is a play in desparation but probably not a bad call. Omar has stolen 3 bags and never got caught, and the throw was absolutely perfect. Still, you gotta scratch your head.

Colby and Kelly Johnson went 0 - 4 as Colby continues his hitless streak to 0-26. Colby looked absolutely fooled tonight and couldn't pick up pitches, striking out swinging 3 times, not even coming close to some pitches in the Sanchez 5 hit gem.

The Jays are in very tough against Verlander, who isn't perfect. Let's hope JA Happ can rise to the challenge and the offense wakes up later.

August 18: Rangers 2, Jays 1

Jays miss moments to mount comeback - fall short in vilifying Villanueva

While the pitching staff held the Rangers to two runs, Escobar, Rasmus, and Johnson are falling short, really short for the Blue Jays offense.

Villanueva pitched another brilliant outing against the hard-hitting Texas Rangers, holding them to two runs for the second night in a row. After Villanueva faced the minimum after 4 innings, an Adrian Beltre ground rule double (that Gose should have had -- he lost it in the sun) and was followed up by a Nelson Cruz home run. Both hits were due to a 82 mph changeup that Villanueva left up. Villanueva left the game with one on and one out at the top of the 7th. His pitching line was great: 4 hits, 2 earned runs, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts over 6 1/3, throwing 86 pitches (58) for strikers.

Aaron Loup, Chad Jenkins, and Darren Oliver pretty much shut down the remainder of the Texas offense as they got one more single in the top of the 8th.

The Jays offense was pretty much as disappointing as usual with many missed opportunities. The Jays offense came in the bottom of the third from the AAA combination of Gose and Hechavarria. Anthony Gose hit a single, stole 2nd, was balked to 3rd, and scored on Hechavarria's first RBI of his major league career, a single to right.

In the bottom of the fourth, Edwin was on second with no one out but couldn't advance as Cooper lined, Yunel flew, and Jeff Mathis struck out.

In the bottom of the fifth, Anthony Gose singled and Hechavarria advanced him to 2nd on a sacrifice bunt. Davis then bunt popped out and Colby popped out.

In the bottom of the sixth, Cooper and Escobar singled with one out. Johnson struck out, but Jeff Mathis reached on a slow single to Kinsler to load the bases for Gose, who struck out after 10 pitches (a great at bat, but was beaten).

And in the bottom of the seventh, the Jays had runners at 1st and 3rd with nobody out (Hechavarria ground rule double, Davis single). Colby then popped out to 3rd base. Edwin was intentionally walked to load the bases. David Cooper flew out to left field, but the ball was not deep enough, and Hech was given the stop sign from Butterfield. And Yunel hit a short fly ball to center to leave the Jays with nothing to show.

The Jays then went 6 up, 6 down to lose the game.

Some positives of the game was Mathis's throw to 2nd to catch a stealing Craig Gentry at the top of the 3rd, and a nice pick off by Loup to catch David Murphy going to 2nd. Hechavarria went 2 for 3.

Major disappointments was Colby Rasmus batting 0 for 5 and is now running an 0-14 streak and is 5-30 with one HR since he came back from his groin injury on August 3. Kelly Johnson is batting 2-20 in his last 7 games. Escobar is battng 3 for 23 in his last 7 games. So, it is the regulars who are now a big part of the problem for the Jays offence. When these three regulars combine to hit one hit per game, it's easy to see why the Jays offense is extra impotent in the last week. Only Edwin (who is 10-25 in the last 7) and Rajai (10 for 35 in his last 8 and 7 stolen bases) have been potent for the veteran Jays.

This is a game that the Jays would probably win with Bautista, Lawrie, Lind, and Arencibia in the lineup -- a tough show for the Jays today, but it shouldn't come as a surprise. Rasmus' bat needs to heat up again, and Brett indeed is due back early next week probably in Detroit although he only went to bat once in today's Gulf Coast game (due to poor field conditions).

Tomorrow's game features Henderson Alvarez vs Matt Harrison in what is sure to be an offensively challenged day yet again for the Blue Jays.

Tampa Bay - Jays series preview

Jays hope to salvage road trip - not likely

After getting swept in Seattle and losing Travis Snider, then seeing Colby Rasmus and Brett Lawrie exit the same game, things looked pretty hopeless for the Jays for the road trip.

The Jays last series win at Tropicana
was in April 2007

But the team pulled out two very gutsy (and lucky) wins on Saturday and Sunday to give them some confidence for the plane ride to Tampa. The Trop has been very unfriendly to the Jays. The last time the Jays won a series at Tropicana Field: April 2007, when Roy Halladay took the deciding game 6-3. Casey Janssen made the save. So, I think a 1-2 performance in Florida, while disappointing, is the new par for the course.

It's difficult to win the AL East without going through Tampa, and when you can't win a series on the road, the best you can really hope to do against Tampa is go 7-11 or 8-10 for the year.

Tampa is suffering from a hitting outage as well, scoring 25 runs in the past 10 games and getting shut out by Baltimore in their last two games. However, Longoria is being activated for the game and his .329/.433/.561 bat will be a very welcome return.

Colby Rasmus and Brett Lawrie likely will be back for the series in Tampa, though I would expect to see Hechavarria, Gomes, and Sierra make a start perhaps. Jose Bautista and Adam Lind will not make appearances this series, and Arencibia won't be back anytime soon.

Look for a starting lines up of Lawrie - Rasmus - Edwin - Johnson - Escobar - Cooper - Davis - Mathis  - Gose for tonight and Wendesday's game and a different look for the Thursday afternoon game against the lefthander.

Tonight's matchup features J.A Happ in his first start as a Blue Jay. Farrell stated that the relief appearances really don't count as he is not a reliever, and certainly, Happ has had a rougher first inning in his relief appearances, which is normal for a starter. Don't expect Happ to wow you. He has been inconsistent this year pitching for Houston, having bad outings (>3 runs, <6 IP) in 6 of 18 of his starts. He will walk 2.5/9 and strike out 8.5/9. If he has a consistent start, look for him to hang in there against Tampa. There will the benefit of pitching in the AL for the first time, so the hitters haven't really seen him. And The Rays counter with James Shield (on 6 days rest), who shut out Oakland in a 3 hitter in his last outing, but in the previous 7 outings, has had only one quality start.

Expect a low scoring game, but I think the Rays will pull out a 4-3 squeaker tonight.

Tomorrows matchup features Carlos Villanueva who is 6-1 with a 3.19 ERA and Alex Cobb (5-8, 4.60 ERA). Cobb has had two very good starts following a couple of poor outings. Villanueva has been very very good as a starter so far for the Jays. I think this one will be close as well and the result of the game depends on which Cobb shows up. I think the Jays will take this one 6-3.

Finally, Thursday afternoon's game features Henderson Alvarez (7-8, 4.47 ERA) vs Matt Moore (8-7, 3.84 ERA) in a lefty-lefty matchup. Matt Moore has had 17 scoreless innings, but in the last two games, he threw alot of pitches (103 and 104) to get throw 6.1 and 5.1 innings respectively. Nevertheless, he has been very very good in his last four starts. Henderson had been fairly inconsistent this year. Look for Tampa to take this one in a 6-2 victory.

Things to look forward to this series is the return of Lawrie and Rasmus to the lineup, the continued play of David Cooper, and the major league debut of Chad Jenkins. Anthony Gose will get some more play and we'll see if his bat continues to improve.

Don't expect Toronto to win the series in Tampa.