Blowing it in the bullpen

Jays Bullpen really not good under pressure

I know it sounds like I am stating the obvious. The Jays have now had 10 blown saves, but if we take a look at the numbers closely, we can see exactly how the Jays are losing leads late in the game.

A save opportunity is when a pitcher enters the game in a save situation. To be clear, a save situation is when a pitcher enters the game in the 7th inning or later with a lead of three runs or less or the potential tying run is on deck, at bat, or on base.

For this purpose, I am going to include games where the Jays were tied going into the inning to show how games are lost. I am not including starting pitchers -- only relievers.

• In 8 innings late where the game was tied at the start of the inning, the Jays have let in runs in 4 of those 8 innings. 

• When the Jays start an inning up by one run: - 3 successful holds (the last successful hold was April 12 - Loup held a one run lead on April 27, only to be blown by Osuna in the 8th) - 7 blown saves - none of these in the 9th inning. 

In all situations where the Jays are tied or up by one run in the 9th, the Jays relief allows runs. All of the closer saves have been recorded with leads of 2 (3) or 3 (3) runs. Read this again, the Jays have yet to record a one-run save.

• When the Jays start an inning up by two runs: - 6 successful holds - 2 blown saves (both belonging to Loup) 

•  When the Jays start an inning up by three runs: - 10 successful holds - nothing blown 

So, the conclusion here is pretty troubling. The Jays when holding a one run lead are 30% likely to hold that lead (3 for 10). That is pretty awful.

The detailed stats on baseball reference are just as awful. The Jays save percentage at 6 for 16 is 37.5%; the league average is 72%. In save situations (not including today's game) opponents have an OPS of .875 (.300 / .366 / .509), an ERA of 6.59 and a WHIP of 1.537. The league average is 1.104.

So, despite the fact that when you look at Reliever stats overall, it comes as a complete surprise then that the Jays pen is 5th in OPS overall at .670, 5th in BA at .225, 4th in WHIP and 11th in ERA.

So, the news is that if the Jays are tied or up by one run late in games, the bullpen has given up the lead. This is why fans get nervous when they see the bullpen show up in a close or tie game and why the twitterverse erupts in rage -- the bullpen pitches terribly. In fact, the last time the Jays bullpen DID NOT give up runs in a tie situation or one run lead was Osuna back on April 12. Here is the detail of all 11 games since where the Jays bullpen entered the game tied or with a one run lead since. There are NO games where the Jays were able to hold a tie game or one run lead.

April 14 - Castro enters game in 8th inning in a 2-2 tie, gives up a crappy bunt single. Sousa steals 2nd and advances to 3rd on a throwing error. SF brings him home. Jays lose 3-2 to Tampa.

April 17 - Cecil enters the game in the 8th inning in a 5-5 tie with the Braves, gives up a home run in the 2nd pitch, allows two more runs. Jays lose 8-7.

April 18 - Castro enters the game to save in the 9th inning. Gives up a home run to the 1st batter he faces. In a bright spot, Cecil hold the Braves in the top of the 10th and Donaldson hits a walk-off home run.

April 25 - With the Jays up 2-1 on the Rays in the bottom of the 8th, with two out, Osuna gives up a single. Cecil then gives up another single. Castro comes in, gives up 2 doubles. Jays lose 4-2.

April 27 - at Boston, with the Jays up 5-4, Osuna enters the game in the bottom of the 8th, gives up two singles, a wild pitch, and a sacrifice fly to blow the save. Miguel Castro enters the 9th in a tie game and gives up two singles, a wild pitch, and another single to blow the game. RedSox win 6-5.

May 20 - in the top of the 7th, with Hutch struggling against the Angels, Steve Delabar comes in inheriting runners on 1st and 2nd with 2 out, Jays up 3-2.  He throws a wild pitch on an 0-1 count and then gives up a two run double. Jays lose 4-3.

May 26 - vs the White Sox, with the Jays up 7-6 in the top of the 8th and a hold by Osuna in the 7th, Hendriks gives up three runs to go down by 2 runs. A dramatic walk off home run by Donaldson in the bottom of the 9th vs David Roberston gives the Jays the win.

May 27 - vs the Sox again, with a 3-3 tie after a Jays comeback, Osuna gives up two. Jays lose 5-3 in 10.

May 30 - at Minnesota, tied 2-2 in the bottom of the 7th, Loup gives up a triple (likely over the head of Cotabello or Valencia). Jays lose 3-2.

May 31 - at the Twins, up 5-4 in the bottom of the 7th, Osuna out for his 2nd inning of relief. A Jose Reyes error followed by a single leads to a Tommy Hunter double scoring two. Twins win 6-5.

June 7 - home to Houston, up 3-2, Bo Schultz gives up 4. The Jays do manage to win this one again in walk off style winning 7-6 in a very lucky bottom of the 9th.

June 9 - Home to Miami, tied 2-2. Osuna comes on and gives up a homer to Stanton. Jays WIN 4-3 on another walk off HR by Edwin. Holy crap.

Don't blame the bullpen!

Jays bullpen has lost six games so far, most in the AL

The bullpen has lost 6 of the 12 games this season, more than any other team in the AL. However, its bullpen is 7th in the AL in ERA at a very respectable 3.24.

The pen is also very hard worked with 72.1 innings pitched over 20 games. Let's look at each bullpen loss and see who is to blame.

April 3: Sergio Santos loses 3-2 in 11 innings.

A disappointing loss as Jose Bautista hits the game tying home run in the bottom of the 9th, in a game where the Jays manage only 5 hits. Sergio then gives up a home run in the top of the 11th to Mark Reynolds. When you score only two runs in a game, it's difficult to win.

Fault: lack of offence.

April 5: Esmil Rogers loses the game in the 8th. Boston wins 6-4.

This is the bullpen and Izturis' fault. Esmil game on with one out in the 8th, walked, gave up a double, and Napoli got the RBI for Boston to get the 5-4 lead on a play where Izturis couldn't field the ball and throw home. Gibbons then put on Jeffries in the 9th who gave up the insurance run via the home run. This was also the famous game where Bonifacio commits three errors.

Fault: the infielders and Esmil.

April 14: Darren Oliver loses the game in the 9th as KC beats Toronto 3-2.

This was Oliver's fault, but the Jays were unable to score more than 1 earned run against Santana. Bonifacio's throw to the plate could have been in time, but you can't fault Bonifacio early in the season for making an off-line throw when he never plays RF.

Fault: the lack of offense.

April 16: Steve Delabar loses the game in the top of the 9th. Chicago beats the Jays 4-2.

This may have been poor defense on Bonifacio's part as he couldn't catch up to a double that perhaps Colby or Rajai does. He took a terrible line to the ball. However, Delabar gave up two walks to open the frame, and you've get to expect at least one of those runs to score. Blame Delabar on this one, but once again, blame the Jays offense for failing to score more than 2 runs.

Fault: Delabar and lack of offense

April 20: Aaron Loup loses the game on his throwing error in the 11th as the Yankees win 5-3.

Aaron Loup makes a bad throw to third on an Ichiro bunt which costs him the game. And he gave up two lead off singles. Bad things happen. Blame Aaron on this one.

Fault: Aaron. But he took a shot at third to keep a double play in order.

April 22: Aaron Loup loses the game 2-1 to the Orioles in the bottom of the 9th due to Kawasaki error.

With runners on 1st and 2nd with two out, a standard double play ball eats up Kawasaki and he inexplicitly throws it to first but too late. Markasis then walks off via a nicely hit bloop single to left field. But once again, this is due to a lack of offense.

Fault: Kawasaki, lack of offense.

So whose fault is it?

When the bullpen is on average playing 3.6 innings per game and giving up an average of about 1.3 runs per game, that's pretty fantastic, really. When your defense is not making great plays (Bonifacio, Kawasaki, Izturis) behind you, you stand to lose. When the offense is not scoring any runs against pitchers that other teams manage to score on, you have to look at the anemic offense.

In all of these cases, the Jays are tied which puts the bullpen under pressure. The Jays have yet to blow a save, and this is incredible.

So spread the blame folks. This isn't the bullpen's fault at all. It's the lack of offense and poor defense behind them that puts pressure on them.

And the bullpen was not supposed to be the stars of this team. It was supposed to be the offense and the starting pitching.

September 4: Orioles 12, Jays 0

Blue Jays continue extreme suckage, rains in dome, Villanueva taken down a notch

Tonight's clash between the O's and Jays featured Carlos Villanueva and Zach Britton. Villanueva came off a very good start against Tampa, pitching 6 innings, striking out 7 and not allowing any runs on 5 hits. Meanwhile, Zach Britton has come off three great starts in a row. In his last start, Britton pitched 8 innings of ball against Chicago, allowing 1 run, 7 hits and striking out 10. The game should be a pitching duel.

Back with the Jays is Anthony Gose and Chad Beck. Arencibia is probably a week away from rejoining the club.

In the bottom of the first, Rajai reached on an infield hit off the plate, but Colby bunted straight to the pitcher and the force at 2nd was an easy shot -- Nothing else doing that inning. In the bottom of the second, Escobar singled, but once again -- nothing doing. In the bottom of the third, Hechavarria singled to open the inning, Rajai bunted him over, but nothing doing. Sierra then doubled with two out in the bottom of the fourth, but nothing doing. 4 innings, four stranded runners.

Villanueva, meanwhile, did nothing short of face the minimum through 12 batters, continuing to strengthen through the season.

In the top of the 5th, Adam Jones then hit a ground rule double as it started to rain inside Rogers Centre. An out later, Villanueva walked Davis. Mark Reynolds then his a three run home run just over the fence to the bullpen in left.

The Jays offense continued to do nothing as the rain continued to fall at Rogers Centre. In the top of the sixth, a single and a double followed by a sac fly to score Markasis to make it 4-0 after six. Jays did nothing in the bottom of the sixth as the roof continued to remain stuck open in the rain, and a fire alarm disrupted Escobar's at bat.

In the 7th, the Orioles managed to single and double and score another run through the sacrifice to make it 5-0. Aaron Loup came on to pitch with two outs. He balked home Machado, and Markasis doubled. JJ Hardy then singled home Markasis as the throw skipped off the wet turf over the catcher's glove. 7-0 into the stretch.

The Jays continued to do nothing offensively in the bottom of the 7th. In the eighth, Aaron Loup continued to be awful with a single-single-double to end Aaron Loup's crappy outing (1 out, 5 hits, 4 earned runs). On came Chad Beck to completely suck with a single-single-double-single to score four more runs. With the bases loaded and behind 12-0, an inning ending double play ended the misery.

Jays did nothing in the 8th against Kevin Gregg or in the 9th against Zach Phillips.

Well, I'm completely flabbergasted.

The Orioles are just not that great a team. Their record is what it is because of their closer and their setup. Their hitting is average. Their starting pitching is average, yet not only can the Blue Jays not hit, they can't manage to score a freaking run in the two games, and this is with an okay line up that features two-thirds of a lineup. Seven hits in two games. That's absolutely ridiculous.

The second thing is the dome. Presumably, the dome staff have access to weather radar and a meteorologist. There is absolutely no reason to open the dome. Rogers couldn't close the dome and it ended up pouring in the dome which absolutely affected the Jays performance on the field. Ridiculous, terrible, and it should not have happened.

Villanueva had 6 earned runs over 6 2/3rds inning. He looked great through the first three, but started to wear down in the middle innings. He struck out six and walked one. Loup got one out, got 5 hits, and earned 4 runs. Beck pitched an inning, got 4 hits, and 2 runs earned. For Villanueva, this might take away a little bit of his marketability as a starting pitcher in another market.

Hits for the Jays by Rajai, Yunel, Moises and Hechavarria. Sierra got a double. Edwin got walked intentionally and Kelly Johnson walked. Rasmus, Lind, and Mathis did nothing.

It's just an awful outing by the Jays with absolutely no bright spots at all.