Rogers Davidi vs Pirate Snider: my take

Snider saga of growing up now online!

From mlbreports.com
 Travis Snider before the 2011 season.

Shi Davidi's three part "saga" on Snider's career can be found at Sportsnet. It's really an excellent read in journalism. Shi took a 90 minute interview with Snider, talked to club ownership, and really put together the whole article in a way that spread the "blame" around. Some people have commented that Snider needed to grow up, that he was a "diva" while others blamed Gaston/Tenace/Anthopoulos.

For me, it's a mix of both. In the end, there are many factors that led to Snider's trade to the Pirates and these are precised below: 

1. Travis wasn't mentally prepared for MLB.
2. The Blue Jays (Cito/Tenace) didn't understand his mental makeup and treated him poorly.
3. The logjam in leftfield and the number of options that Anthopoulos had available hurt his chances for a permanent promotion.
4. As a result of Travis' mental fragility and untimely injuries and bad timing, he never meshed with the club management and didn't perform well.
5. When he finally did get promoted, due to injuries and very poor performance by the AAA callups, Anthopolous went shopping for a bullpen at the trade deadline and Travis (and Thames) were victims of trade.

There is a great background read at Yahoo Sports dated April 10, 2009 (Life Lessons came early for Snider). In short, Snider's (at age 14) mom went into a coma. When she came out of it, she had liver damage, memory loss, and her husband (Travis' dad) left him, putting him into the caretaker role and forcing him into counselling for anger management. And just when he thought he was done for it, his mother died in a car accident just after he got back from his season at Lansing in September, 2007.

A native of Mill Creek, Washington (a northern suburb of Seattle), his high school (Jackson) was ranked #2 in the nation in 2006, having gone 27-0 (the number 1 team, Woodlands, Texas, featured none other than Kyle Drabek).

He was drafted by the Jays 14th overall in the 2006 draft at the age of 18 for 1.7 million. To be convinced that he should be signed, not only did assistant GM LaCava scout him in Washington, but JP Ricciardi flew Snider to SkyDome and personally threw batting practice with him to become convinced. 

Baseball America interviewed him while he was playing for Pulaski in the Appalachian rookie league, and Snider had the typical responses, of him being honored to play in the Blue Jays organization, how he wanted to work hard, and all of the typical responses. And he did work hard, batting to an OPS of .979 for Pulaski. That performance earned him the Appalachian League Player of the Year and Rookie Player of the Year honours.

In 2007, he was promoted to the Lansing Lugnuts where he stayed all year and hit .313 / .377 / .505 with 16 home runs, despite injuring his thumb in the middle of May (zapping his power until early August). He hit LHP and RHP equally well (at .311 or above). He dealt with adversity with the thumb injury and slump in June and started to hit really well in July. Scout.com compared Snider favorably with Jay Bruce (all star outfielder for the Reds), stating this: 

"They will both record their fair share of strike outs, but without sacrificing their batting average that will roam around .300 and their on-base presence, and hit for a lot of power to all fields while handling pitches from whoever is facing them on the mound. They also both clearly show the potential to be major producers for their respective teams in the future"

And like Jay Bruce in 2007 who went through a meteoric rise in the minors, Travel had the same meteoric rise in the minors in 2008. As the #11 Baseball America prospect, he started in Dunedin for 17 games (with JP Arencibia, Cooper) where he played just 17 games before getting called up to New Hampshire (as the youngest player in Fisher Cats history) where he hit .262 / .357 / .461 with 17 home runs over 362 at bats (recording 116Ks), playing with JP Arencibia, Erik Kratz (now catching with the Phillies), and Kyle Phillips. In August, he was promoted to AAA Syracuse where he only managed to hit. 344 in 64 at bats. He was ready for the big leagues. He debuted with the Jays on August 29th and managed to hit .301 / .338 / .466 over 73 at bats. He went to the Arizona Fall league to hone his skills further.

  

A Seattle Times story written in February, 2008 talks about the prospects mental character in the face of adversity. By all accounts, everyone agreed that he succeeded extremely well in all facets of life, despite adversity. Larry Stone, sports writer for the Seattle Times, stated in early 2008: 

He may, in fact, be the most self-actualized young player I've ever encountered, and it's no accident. Snider has worked as hard on himself as he has on his game.

JP Ricciardi said of him in the same story: 

"As far as the physical attributes, he's going to be a very good hitter. But it's really the mental stuff that separates Travis. He's been through some tough things. You talk about a young kid that gets it — he gets it."

That said, he had a very tough teenage years, where he went through the death of two close grandparents, the death of his coach, the demise of his mother, the pain of parents divorcing, and having to support his mother. He was a big kid (built as a linebacker), and had anger management issues, went to counselling, and poured all of his anger and emotions into baseball.

When is mother died in a sudden car accident just after the 2007 Lugnuts season, he used the Jays employee assistance program and the Jays made sure that he was encompassed in baseball.

By all accounts, this young man knew adversity and succeeded despite it. The Davidi story paints Snider in his early career as being immature and subject to criticism and not being able to deal with Tenace and Gaston. That's a bunch of crap. Snider dealt with adversity quite well. He just needed time to process it at his young age.

What I will say, however, is that Snider was used to success at every level. When he hit the MLB, which is the penultimate destination (nirvana, heaven), he ran into management in Gaston and Tenace who did not treat him with the kid gloves that Ricciardi did. There is no doubt in my mind that Gaston wanted him to succeed. But Snider's head and confidence was so wrapped up in his success at baseball that when he finally met failure, he did not handle it well at all.

Gaston did not understand his mental makeup and treated him poorly. He made this statement in the Davidi article:

The Blue Jays, Gaston explains, "were trying to ease him into it, trying to make sure he’s going to be successful, instead of shoving him out there against tough left-handers. I understand why it’s tough to understand after he hit two home runs, but there are some guys who can take it from their teammates, some guys that can’t. He’s got to be able to take it."

Certainly, Gaston's regime was not rookie-friendly, and Snider didn't take it very well in his own account. He did not like sitting out games. Things did not go well for Snider in 2009. He started off the season quite similar to how Lawrie finished in 2011, hitting the cover off the ball. Through his first 14 games, he hit .310 / .383 / .643 with 8 extra base hits in his first 13 hits. But he slipped after that, and in the stretch of 18 games prior to his demotion back to AAA Veags, he hit .193 / .220 / .211. This coincides well with Snider's recalling of him trying to change his swing in Davidi's story with Tenace's and Gaston's urgings. And frankly, Snider had stiff competition in the outfield. So, with the roster, Gaston went with Bautista / Rios / Wells in the outfield, Overbay at 1st, and Rolen at 3rd, with Lind at DH. This left no room for Snider to play, and he was demoted.

And by Travis' account, he did not take this well. And why would he? All of Snider's failures were things he couldn't control - the deaths and divorce around him. Baseball was perhaps the only one thing he could control. This was really the only time in life where he had a personal failure, and naturally, looking back, he blamed the failure on his relationship with Gaston and Tenace, and probably was upset at Ricciardi too.

And things did not get better for him. By his accounts, he languished in AAA at first but recovered, and he came up to finish the 2009 season hitting .276 / .360 / .483 in the last 26 games of the season, which is major league quality for a left fielder. Then Ricciardi was fired, Gaston had the clubhouse riot, and Dwayne Murphy came on as hitting coach.

By the middle of May, 2010, it looked like Snider was indeed going to be the everyday left fielder, and indeed despite his first 19 game struggle (.125 / .253 / .250) they kept him out there, and he turned a corner indeed, batting .385 / .418 / .769 over his next 14 games. Then he hurt his wrist, and that really sucked both mentally and physically. Snider languished in AAA and AA while he tried to recover. Meanwhile, Fred Lewis was doing really well as a regular outfielder for the Jays, batting (until the end of July) .280 / .342 / .456. With Bautista now playing regularly in rightfield, Gaston needed to find room for Snider to play, and for a while, Snider platooned with Lewis while Edwin played terribly at 3rd base. This got into Snider's head (according to him) but he tried to prevail anyway, and with Lewis' production falling off, Snider won the position in LF and he finished the season well and had a stretch of 12 games at the end of the season where he bat .373 / .396 / .706).

So, my take on Snider is that while he admits the game gets into his head, he manages to turn it around over time. His stats prove that. In every case in the Davidi story where Snider is performing badly, Snider blames it eventually on himself and how he handled situations.

And this is the great, great plus for Snider. He is capable of being a fantastic player if the game in his head is right. And he knows this.

And really, the Jays management has got to do what is best for them, not what is best for a 22 year old. Certainly, management didn't really comprehend that their actions affected Travis' performance as much as they did. And even if they did understand it, it is management's job to coddle a player?

Given Snider's potential, perhaps the answer should be "yes". However, in life, there are going to be challenges. Was Jays management right in playing Fred Lewis over Travis Snider? Absolutely. Lewis was having a great year (hitting .280 at the end of July) in 2010 for the Jays, and so was Jose Bautista. You might fault the Jays for putting Lind out there day after day, but for the money he was being paid and the .932 OPS the year before, why wouldn't you? And Bautista was needing to be repurposed as a right fielder to make way for Edwin's bat. There just wasn't alot of room with Bautista in right, Lind at DH, Overbay at 1st, and Edwin at 3rd.

The team has to do what's right for the team, not what's right for a player. Snider was victim of unfortunate circumstances and as a result, he was bounced around between AAA and the majors. Finally, when Snider did come up, he won the job in LF anyway over a languishing Lewis.

And in 2011, he just did not play well at the big league level. By this time, this was his 4th year in MLB and the Jays were really not responsible for his mental state. Snider uses (in part two of the article) excuses of not having a contract and getting beat out by Thames as excuses, but I think the Jays mentality at this point was that he has to perform to earn a spot on the team. He wasn't.

Finally, in 2012, the Jays left Travis down in AAA, not calling him up until mid-July. And he did well once called up. But he was blindsided once again with a trade to the Pirates, where he could now have a fresh start.

Except he's the same Snider. To August 29, Snider managed to hit about .301 / .385 / .422, but since August 31, Snider his hitting just .111 with no extra base hits. He hurt his hamstring. He's not getting regular play. All of this has gotten into his head, yet again, despite playing for a new club.

At some point, a team has got to look at a player and all of the investment made in him. He was a first round draft pick with great expectations, and he did great up until he was called up to the team's top level. And even in MLB, he has shown greatness. But mentally, he was and is fragile, letting the management actions and other players get to his head which translated to his bat. At some point, a team needs reliability. When the Jays looked at their roster at the end of July, they realized that their chances of getting into the post season with an injured Lawrie, Bautista, Arencibia, starting rotation and bullpen was slim and none. Anthopolous realized that he had an immediate need to shore up the bullpen and he got rid of what he saw was a mental liability in Travis Snider.

For what it's worth (nothing) I wish Travis the best of luck. I think he has the capability to be an all-star, but he's gotta remove himself mentally from his physical game. If he can do that, he will be successful.

Series recap: Jays wake up in Baltimore

September 24-26, 2012

After losing six in a row in the Bronx and at the Trop, the remaining Jays fans who have now turned their eyes elsewhere (not hockey) were looking for a turnaround in Baltimore. And it looks like they got one - a small one, mind you, as they went 2-2 in the four game set.

 

In all, the Jays come back off the road going 2-8, quite disappointing, but frankly, in a best case scenario, with the teams that they were playing and the state of the roster, 4-6 might have been the best to hope for.

On the pitching front, Laffey's effort was by far the highlight of the series. Alvarez, Romero, and Villanueva were not good. The bullpen however was excellent with the exception of Wednesday night's game when Farrell trotted out Carreno, Beck, and Carpenter down by 4, 6, and 8 runs. Janssen also looked rusty in his efforts but managed to get out relatively unscathed.

On the hitting front, Arencibia, Lind, Edwin, and Hechavarria were highlights, while Colby and Lawrie were disappointments.

• JP went 7 for 9 with two walks in the series, after going 2 for 37 with two walks since his injuries. Perhaps he's turned the corner, a great sign. Remember that in the 18 games before his injury, he hit .319 / .349 / .700 (with six home runs) and was really coming together. In Baltimore, he hit a  home run and a double.
• Adam Lind went 6 for 9 in the series (all singles). Since September 11, Adam's hitting 17-51 (.333) with 4 doubles, 2 triples, and a home run for an OPS of .906.  If Lind can end the season on this positive note, it will be difficult to dismiss him as the opening day 1B or DH especially against RHP and the value of his contract.  
• Edwin went 5-16 with two home runs. Edwin, in his last 11 games is batting 12-37 with 4 home runs and 8 walks (OPS 1.106).  
• Hechavarria went 3 for 8 and is running a 9 game hitting streak, batting 10 for 29 with 2 doubles and a home run in that stretch (OPS .889). Since August 23rd, Adieny is hitting (.303 / .329 / .434) over 81 plate appearances and is making the argument to be in the starting lineup next year.

On the awful side, Colby Rasmus went 1 for 12 (two walks) while Brett Lawrie went 2 for 16 (3 walks). Colby's batting .111 in his last 11 games played; Lawrie is batting .170. When your 1-2 in the order has a .255 and .200 OBP respectively, it's hard for Edwin to drive in runs. Bautista had the same problem at the start of the season when Escobar and Johnson headed up the lineup.

 

Monday afternoon: Jays 1 at Orioles 4

 

The Jays continued their offensive drought Monday afternoon, while Henderson Alvarez gave up four runs over 5 2/3rds inning in a step back after three good outings.

Henderson's enemy again was the home run. In the bottom of the fourth, a lead off walk to Chris Davis was followed up by an Adam Jones home run. Alvarez gave up an another home run to Flaherty to open the bottom of the fifth, and Alvarez really started to come undone in the bottom of the sixth, as the Orioles loaded the bases (Jones single, Wieters double, Thome intentional walk) with none out. Mark Reynolds then hit into a double play, scoring Adam Jones. Cecil then came on to finish the frame, and Frasor and Beck finished off the game without any damage being done.

Henderson's line was 5.2 innings pitched. Over 86 pitches, he walked 3, struck out 6, and gave up 2 home runs. The Jays defence was fine that afternoon with no glaring problems or issues.

 

On the offensive side, the Jays threatened (as usual) a few times in the game before breaking through in the eighth inning with two outs. Edwin singled, Lind singled, and Rajai Davis doubled home Edwin. Darren O'Day came on to strike out Kelly Johnson (good guess) to end the threat. Jim Johnson breezed through the last frame to record his 48th (!) save.

 

The rookie Steve Johnson let in 3 hits over five innings of work and looked great, now going 21 scoreless innings over a couple of starts and relief appearances. And besides Tommy Hunter, the rest of the Orioles pitching staff pitched with their usual efficiency.

 

For the Jays hitting, Colby reached twice on walks, and Adam Lind hit twice. Jeff Mathis went 0-2 as did Yunel. Anthony Gose went 0-4.

 

Monday night: Jays 9 at Orioles 4.

An excellent offensive effort by the Jays (Arencibia's 5 RBIs), and a key defensive play by Gose resulted in a Jays win.

The night game featured the struggling Ricky Romero vs Wei-Yin Chen. In this match, the Jays needed some excellent defensive play to win this game. Ricky was truly lucky to end up with the win.

Edwin started off the scoring in the top of the first with a two run home run following a Brett Lawrie walk. Ricky's bottom of the first looked a little shaky with a opening walk.

Chen continued to be shaky in the 2nd. Sierra singled and Visquel doubled to open the inning. JP Arencibia hit a long fly ball to right to advance Visquel and score Sierra. Gose singled to left to score Visquel and it was 4-0 going into the bottom of the 2nd.

But in the bottom of the 2nd, 8 hitters for Baltimore came to the plate as Romero's pitching woes continued. Reynolds singled, then Machado hit a seeing eye single between 3rd and short. Chavez advanced the runners to 2nd and 3rd with two out, but Andino hit a weak single again between short and 3rd to score two runs. Romero then errored allowing Teagarden to reach and McLouth was beaned before Romero got out of the inning. 4-2 after 2.

Romero managed to sail through the 3rd and 4th inning. Romero ran into some trouble in the bottom of the 5th as McLouth paid back Romero for hitting him by hitting a home run. Jones then hit a double and Romero walked two batters, loading the bases before Chavez hit a weak ground ball down the first base side that Romero handled and tagged him out to preserve the lead. Sierra immediately homered in the top of the 5th to give Romero a 5-3 lead going into the 5th, and with Romero having thrown 85 pitches and looking wild, it was really surprising to see him come out and pitch the sixth. I really thought that Farrell would want his bullpen to preserve the win.

In the bottom of the 5th, Romero continued his woes, giving up a double to Andino, a single and a walk, ending Romero's day. Sportsnet had some nice shots of Romero looking quite upset as Brad Lincoln came on to with the bases loaded and none out. JJ Hardy then singled to score a run. Lincoln then settled down and managed to strike out Adam Jones, then a shallowish fly ball by Davis was caught by Jones. Teagarden, the lumbering catcher tagged, and Gose threw a perfect one bounce strike to Arencibia to tag out the Oriole, just barely in time. 5-4 Jays after 6, and Romero was in line for the win.

In the 7th, with Jake Arreita on the mound, the Jays struck again. Encarnacion walked, Escobar singled, and Lind (who pinch hit for Yan Gomes against the righty) singled to load the bases. Sierra then hit into a fielders choice as Reynolds threw out Encarnacion for the force at home, and Visquel popped to short. Then, JP Arencibia, who was hitting 4-39 since his return, decided to hit a just-out-of-the park GRAND SLAM to take the a 9-4 lead.

Lincoln pitched the 7th, Loup the 8th and Janssen came on to pitch the ninth. He looked rusty, giving up 3 singles to load the bases with none out, but Reynolds managed to hit into a double play (scoring one) and Machado struck out to end the ball game.

Tuesday: Jays 4, Orioles 0

Aaron Laffey and the bullpen combine for a shutout, Jays get 13 hits for 2nd night in a row in a well-rounded effort.

Aaron Laffey threw something like 57 innings last year in the Mariners and Yankee organization before being converted into a starter by the Jays this year. So, far this year, Laffey threw 63.2 innings for Las Vegas and 90 innings for the Jays. I think if the Jays didn't have to use Laffey to start, they wouldn't, but with Happ on the bench and playing 10 games in 8 days left little choice for the Jays.

Laffey pitched 5 2/3rds inning, scattering 5 hits, pitching to contact (no walks, no strikeouts). Farrell decided to preserve his arm and took Laffey out of the game with Jones single while the Jays were up 2-0. Farrell then played matchups, putting out Delabar, Cecil (to get one out), and Lyon. Oliver and Janseen then finished the game, and once again Janssen looked rusty, as Escobar bobbled a ball with 1 out, then a popup and two walks later, the bases were loaded with 2 out with the tying run at the plate in Flaherty, who hit a fly ball to end the game.

Offensively, it was another 13 hit effort as every Jay got at least one hit. Gomes recorded an RBI in the first, with a single to score Lawrie in the 1st. In the fourth, Hechavarria hit a long double with two out to knock in Davis from first. The Jays scored two more in the 7th as Rasmus knocked in Arencibia who singled and advanced to second as Gose reached on a an error. Encarnacion then knocked in Gose but Davis threw out Rasmus as he tried to go 1st to 3rd. The throw by Davis was brilliant and just got Rasmus out at 3rd, so I wouldn't blame Rasmus from trying to advance.

Escobar, Gomes, Rajai, and JP Arencibia got two hits each. Arencibia was the only player who walked.

Wednesday: Jays 2 and Baltimore 12

Carlos Villanueva ran out of gas in the 5th inning as the Jays offense runs typically dry. The bullpen's minor leaguers allowed 2 runs each inning to put the game out of reach.

As I wrote in my previous blog entry, Villanueva has been audtioning to be a starter now since he entered the rotation on June 29th. The fear for Villanueva has always been his arm. He injured it last year, and he's never pitched as many innings as he has this year. I think that Villanueva has starter stuff, but that his arm will wear out at some point next year. For that reason, I think Villaneuva would be a perfect fit for the Jays as both Drabek and Hutchinson will be ready mid and late season to replace Carlos.

In the first inning, Edwin and and McLouth exchanged home runs. In the fifth, the Jays scored thir only other run of the game as Gose knocked in Arencibia who doubled on the previous at bat.

But in the bottom of the 5th, Villaneuva's arm had had enough. Villanueva's fastball had topped out at 90mph, and he was relying alot on his slider, change up and curve to get runners out, and he was successful at doing so. Villanueva up until the point was pretty good, throwing 7 strikeouts and walking 1. Jim Thome hit the 1st pitch (a change up) out of the park to tie the game. With two outs, Machado hit a home run (on another change up) to go down 3-2. McLouth and Hardy then singled before Chris Davis hit his 27th home run for his 27th home run (on a slider left up). That ended it for Villaneuva.

Down 6-2, Farrell elected to go to the AAA callups in the bullpen, going with Carreno in the 6th, who walked Wieters and gave up a 2 run home run to Mark Reynolds. In the 7th, Farrell went with Beck. Beck gave up a single to Hardy before Chris Davis hit a 2-run homer. In the 8th, Farrell went with David Carpenter. Lawrie had a terrible throw to allow Reynolds to reach, and then Machado homered. 12-2 after 8.

Offensively, Adam Lind went 3 - 4 (singles), while Arencibia (2B), Encarnacion (HR), Gose, and Hechavarria rounded out the hitting.

So, for Carlos, who may have one outing remaining, he is running on fumes. One might ask why Farrell would run out the Vegas trio to throw innings when down only 4 runs, but I am thinking that he needed to give his bullpen a rest.

Coming up: Jays vs Yankees

The Jays come home now to finish off their disappointing season, getting to hopefully play spoiler against the Yankees, who will be pulling out all the stops to win the division against the Orioles (who will be in Boston). The last series will be against the even more disappointing Minnesota Twins to close out the season.

 

Why Villanueva should be a Blue Jay next year

The Jays I hope will Carlos Villanueva.It's just a matter of Carlos reconciling what his value is and Alex Anthopoulos to convince the Jay to remain in Toronto. 


Carlos throws in Tampa (Getty Images)

 Carlos believes that he can be a big league starter next year and wants the commensurate salary to match. A big league starter needs to be able to throw 200 innings and he of course believes that he has the arm to do it.

The facts bely the belief. Carlos has been up and down through his years at Milwaukee and Toronto and does not have the experience nor proven arm to command a starter's salary. The Brewers ended his attempt to become a long-term starter in spring training of 2007, and since that, Carlos has not pitched the number of innings required nor has he been consistent enough to be an opening day starter.

Carlos Villanueva is 28 years old and debuted with the Brewers in 2006. He was drafted as an amateur free agent by the Giants in 2002 and was traded to the Brewers in the 2003-4 offseason. Carlos brewed in A and AA ball as a starter in 2004 and 2005, doing fairly decently (ERA under 3.5, WHIP of about 1.1).

In 2006, he was promoted from AA to AAA Nashville for the Brewers organization, where he had, as a starter, an ERA of 3.22 and a WHIP of 1.104 with 120Ks in 129 innings pitched. He got called up to the Brewers, pitched 54 more innings for Milwaukee, making spot starts in June and September, posting a respectable 3.69 ERA, a WHIP of 1, and struck out 39. So, in 2006, he pitched 182 1/3 innings total and looked to be on track to be a long term starter.

But the Brewers elected to make Carlos a reliever in 2007, being beat out for the #5 spot in the rotation by Claudio Vargas. Villanueva was an adequate middle reliever, throwing 114 innings, posting an average 3.94 ERA with a WHIP of 1.35. Carlos I am sure saw that year as a step backwards in his career, as did many who were following his career at the time. As it turns out, most of the Milwaukee starting crew did not do very well, as Milwaukee finished the season 83-79, 2 games back of the Cubs in the NL Central. The starters posted a 4.55 ERA and a WHIP of 1.422, not very good, and certainly not enough to go far in the playoffs had they made it. Carlos did start a few games, especially late in the season. But still, the threw 114 innings in 2007, a step back.

Carlos continued to work the bullpen in 2008, and while he started off poorly (5.40 ERA through the end of June), he finished the season working to a 1.87 ERA and a WHIP just over 1, with 43Ks. He seemed to have found his form in the 2nd half of 2008. Still, he threw only 108 innings, posted an ERA of 4.07 and a WHIP of 1.367.

In 2009, Carlos was used even less, starting only 6 games and tossing 96 innings, posting an ERA of 5.34 with a WHIP of 1.427, posting a very disappointing 4-10 record. Four of his six starts ended up with Carlos letting in 4 or more earned runs and never making it past the 6th inning.

In 2010, Carlos took another step backwards, getting demoted to AAA Nashville in August and September, throwing a total of about 64 innings. His demotion was due to having a minor league option. Still an ERA of 4.61 and WHIP of 1.33 was not awful.

Carlos was traded to the Jays in the 2010 offseason (for a player to be named) and started pitching in the pen for the Jays as a middle-reliever with Luis Perez's left-handed arm. And Carlos started off very very well, posting a 1.48 ERA over 13 appearances. and an WHIP of about 0.83. And because of Jesse Litsch's poor performance (4.66 ERA, WHIP over 1.4), the Jays elected to inject Carlos in the rotation and send Litsch down to the minors and turn him into a rather ineffective middle reliever. And Carlos was very good as a starter but got worse as the season went on. Over 12 starts, he posted an ERA of 4.33, striking out 41 over 70.2 innings and a WHIP about 1.3. But his arm gave out on his 13th start and he left the game in Tampa giving up 8 runs over 2 2/3rds innings. He was put on the DL with a forearm strain, and began a rehab assignment down in Vegas. He was used sparingly in September, appearing 7 times, throwing 9.1 innings of work, and did well. He earned 1.4 million in 2011.

Villanueva, in 2012, (now earning 2.3 million) began the season once again in the bullpen with Perez as the alternate as the starting rotation was set. Carlos did very well as the Jays middle reliever, throwing 33.1 innings over 22 appearances, with a 3.24 ERA and a WHIP of over 1.4, but striking out 36 and giving up 5 home runs. Really, in the 22 appearances, he had only 5 where he let in runs, with only 1 negatively affecting the outcome of the game (vs Minnesota May 11).

Pressed into service through injuries to Morrow, Hutchinson, and Drabek, Carlos became a starter again, pitching at home to the Angels on June 29th. Over the first 11 starts, he was very good, pitching deeper into the games, posting an ERA of 3.03, a WHIP of 1.1, and striking out 1 per inning, throwing 64% of his pitches for strikes.

Now, in two of his past four starts, he hasn't been very good, letting in 6 runs against Baltimore on September 4th and blowing his start at Tampa on Friday.

So, the fandom are demanding to sign him and that he will be the team's saviour next season. The Jays fans are delusional of course. There are reasons why any team would be reluctant to sign Villanueva.

First, 2012 has been by far his best season with the most innings pitched, the most number of starts, his best ERA, his best WHIP, the highest number of strikeouts (by far). It's the perfect time to advertise yourself when you are having your best season. That said, he may be peaking, and that's a risk.

Second, Villanueva has indicated that he will be very unhappy in the bullpen and has stated that he is looking to be a starter and command the salary as a starter as a free agent. That means that Carlos will say "no" to any salary where he will be part of the bullpen. This means that any team that ends up signing him will be risking salary.

Thirdly, Carlos has not completed a full season as a starter, and when he has started a number of games in a row, his arm has succumbed to injury, such as it did in 2011, and what is happening now. If Carlos makes his next two starts, he will have pitched around 132 innings in 2012. His cap in innings NEXT year will be about 170 and the year after 220. At 170 innings, Carlos will only be be able to pitch until the end of August, at the latest if he starts every scheduled start, and that's a risk.

A club that's desparate for starters or with an open bankroll might end up taking that risk.

I purport that Anthopoulos should take that risk, reason with Villanueva that he WILL start next season, but offer a 3-4 year escalating contract based on the risk involved in signing him. 
Carlos is well known to the Jays and is pitching well in Toronto. He has proven starts. If he signs, Anthopoulos will only need to sign one free agent in the offseason to complete the rotation. Carlos Villanueva's arm will last him to the return of Kyle Drabek or to the trade deadline should the Jays compete. Anthopoulos has the best relationship with Villanueva and his agents, and will be able to reason with Carlos to sign a reasonable deal that takes that risk into account.

It's a win-win. Villanueva remains a Jay, and he starts the season, knowing that he will be replaced in mid-August. He commands a better salary as a starter and starts for up to 5 months next year, and works out for the following year for the full term. And, Villanueva won't get dickered around by other teams and doesn't get demoted the the bullpen as he did in Milwaukee. Anthopoulos only needs to shop for one free agent pitcher in the offseason (hopefully a very strong free agent), and can leave Jenkins and Alvarez to potentiate in AAA or to be used in cases of emergency. A starting rotation of Romero - Morrow - Happ - Villaneuva - and Free agent will be decent enough for the Jays to compete. 

So, let's get him signed. He needs the Jays as much as the Jays need him.

Series wrap: The nightmare continues in Tampa

Where's the magic button that fast forwards to the end of the season?

Don't you wish, as a Jays fans, that you could just simulate the game instead of enduring the torture of watching these games?

Toronto has always had trouble in Tampa, having not won a series there in something like 6 or 7 years. That trend has continued, but these games were so lopsided. And Tampa is in the chase for a wild card spot 5.5 games behind Oakland, the team has to pull out all stops to catch the Athletics. Turns out that they did.

Friday, September 21: Jays 1 at Tampa 12

Carlos Villanueva started the night against James Shields, who has been fabulous against the Jays last year and this year. Carlos, on the other hand, was out to continue to audition for a coveted starting role on some team. Alot of Jays fans are stating that Carlos should be signed to a deal and to show him the money, and my position has been the same: the guy is not proven as a starter. Yes, he can start games, but can he last an entire season? No, he probably cannot. After the game, the Jays management stated that Carlos had arm soreness. The fact of the matter, fans, is that pitching is a violent and unnatural thing to do. Most of us can't throw anything over 40mph, and the fact that these pitchers get pitches up over 90mph is incredible. But it's extremely hard on the arm. Typically, managers will allow a 30% of overage for innings pitched from year to year. Carlos had arm soreness last year when he was given the starter's role, and it's the same this year. He doesn't have the stamina to go a full season in a rotation, and therefore, he will not command a starting position salary. Carlos has pitched about 12% more innings this year over last (so far). Next year, he will probably top out at 160 innings. A big league #1 starter will pitch over 240 innings, while a decent healthy starter will top out at about 200. That leaves Carlos one month short of making it through a season, and that is if everything goes right.

Tampa opened scoring with a Zobrist solo shot in the bottom of the 1st. Two more runs came into score on a Carlos Pena triple. Pena should have been dead to rights at 3rd but Lawrie couldn't pick a bad Hechavarria throw out of the dirt. Molina followed up with a two run home run to make it 5-0. Villanueva then opened the bottom of the third with two singles and a walk before a Luke Scott double (off the glove of Rasmus, a very EASILY handled fly ball) scored two more runs. Carlos then got Pena to pop out before Farrell pulled the plug on Villanueva. Chad Beck came in and stopped the damage, but it was already 7-0 at the end of 3.

Really, is there more to talk about? Beck was okay, letting in 1 run over 2 2/3rds inning of solid mid-relief work, but allowed 3 hits and two walks. With Tampa up 8-0, Farrell marched the very shaky David Carpenter onto the mound, the the Rays managed to score four more runs in the 6th to make it a 12-0 game. Loup and Janssen came on to finish the game.

Ug. Offensively for the Jays, a Yan Gomes double scored a Rasmus single, and that was it for the offense in the top of the 8th. Gose, Arencibia, and Lind were kept off the hit sheet, with Edwin taking the only walk.

Saturday, September 22: Jays 5 at Tampa 11.

Saturday's matchup was a resurgent Brandon Morrow vs a very good Matt Moore. Unfortunately for Brandon he had a frustrating start, not being able to command his slider and not getting calls on some very close pitches with his fastball.

It looked promising for the Jays, as they scored two runs against Matt Moore, as Lawrie opened the game with a walk, Rajai doubled and Edwin singled. Adam Lind hit a sac fly and it was 2-0 after the top of 1. But Brandon was worse, giving up a single and three walks. It was going to be a long night.

Brandon Morrow left a breaking ball over the middle of the plate in the bottom of the second to the desparate Tampa Rays Evan Longoria, who hit a three run homer.

The Jays thretened in the top of the 3rd with 1st and 2nd and two out, but Maddon pulled the plug was pulled early on Matt Moore and went to their very deep bullpen.

Brandon Morrow gave up a solo home run to Desmond Jennings in the bottom of the fourth and with the Jays down 4-2, that was the end of Morrow's day.

The Jays got to Jake McGee in the top of the 5th, as Adam Lind tripled home a single by Gose and Lawrie, and it was 5-4 at the top of the 5th.

But Brad Lincoln sunk it for the Jays, letting in 6 runs over two outs as Keppinger doubled, Francisco doubled,  Roberts singled (scoring Francisco), and Molina homered on an inside fastball. Then Jennings singled and  BJ Upton homered on pretty much the identical pitch to Molina. And it was 11-4.

In the top of the 8th, Hechavarria managed to get a one run back for the Jays knocking home Moises Sierra who had doubled.

And that's it: Morrow had a terrible start, and Brad Lincoln was terrible for the 2nd game in a row. The offense started off well enough, but Tampa was determined to win.

Sunday, September 23rd: Jays 0, Tampa 1

The hope disappeared for the Jays sometime in mid-August, but for Tampa, now only 3.5 behind Oakland for the last wild card spot with Boston, Chicago, and Baltimore left to play, every game matters. Today's matinee featured Jeremy Hellickson against a hopefully not-so-much scouted rookie Chad Jenkins.

Jenkins pitched very well, going five innings. His only blemish was a BJ Upton soloe home run given up in the first, and a couple of hits went very far and were caught, including a very nice Colby Rasmus catch to save a double. He went five innings, threw 60 pitches, and struck out four. Delabar and Oliver pitched fairly flawless sixth and seventh innings.

But Hellickson and the Rays were better, and the Jays managed to spray six through over the game, threatening in the 2nd from a Yunel and Johnson single with two out, but Sierra grounded out. In the 5th, another threat from a Yunel single and Gose single, leaving runners at 2nd and 3rd with two out, but Lawrie struck out. And in the sixth, the Jays managed to load the bases through a single and two walks with two out, but Maddon elected to go to the bullpen to McGee who struck out Kelly Johnson. And in the seventh, Gose doubled on a short fly ball into no-man's territory and was sacrificed by Brett Lawrie, but Maddon went to Howell. Rasmus got jammed, and Howell made an amazing play to throw out Rasmus for third out.

The Rays attempted to add some insurance in the 8th against Brandon Lyon, and a broken bat single by Jennings who stole 2nd. Zobrist was intentionally walked with one out, and Longoria hit a long fly ball to the wall that Sierra just missed, scoring two more runs and pretty much ending any hope for a comeback with the way that the Jays have been playing.

Rodney closed off the game stranding Escobar on first.

0-6. That's the story of these Jays for the road trip thus far, with four more to play in Baltimore. The Jays can't string together hits into runs, and if they do, it's when they are far behind in the game. They've come on the losing end of three close one-run games now, unable to solve the Yankees nor the Rays. There were terrible starts by Brandon Laffey, Morrow and Villaneuva, and when the team didn't pitch well, their hitting was worse.

Highlights for the Jays offense included an Escobar 3-3 day (3 singles and a walk) and a Gose 2 for 3 day. Lawries, Rasmus, Lind, Arencibia and Sierra did not hit. Arencibia has gone 2-37 since his return.

Meaningless games for the Jays, but with games against Baltimore and the Yankees, the Jays will play an instrumental role in the playoffs. Dropping three to Tampa allowed the Rays an outside chance of making the playoffs, being either 2.5 or 3.5 games back of Oakland.