Saturday, August 18, 2012

Ricky Romero: The great, the bad, the bobblehead

What's that bobblehead worth?











As Ricky Romero tweeted earlier today:











Ricky's pretty excited about his day tomorrow, and indeed the kid from East LA has come a very long way. This year, the first in his 4 year, 27.5 million dollar contract (plus a $M13 option for 2016), has seen some downs for sure, after he was surely the ace of this ball club at the start of the year. 

Ricky was born in East Los Angeles, Calfornia, Ricky portrays himself as a tough kid from East LA who feels lucky enough to make it to the Show.

I'm going to try to explain to my few followers why I think Ricky is having a tough time this year, and to give you a background on Ricky's young career in the majors.

High school, college, and the minors

Attending Garfield high school (famous for the movie Stand and Deliver) and then Roosevelt (also in LA) for his senior year, his dominance as a pitcher became apparent. According to the Cal State Fullerton's web site,

"Posted a dominant senior season for Roosevelt H.S.• As a senior, he was named the L.A. City Section co-Player of the Year and the Eastern League co-MVP • Posted a 12-1 record along with a 0.53 ERA and 162 strikeouts (and just 27 walks) in 80 innings while opponents batted just .110 • Led all Southern California in strikeouts and struck out at least 10 batters in every start • Hurled nine complete games and two shutouts, including a no-hitter against his former school, Garfield, in which he recorded 14 of 15 outs by strikeouts (the game was shortened to five innings due to the mercy rule) • Tossed a one-hitter and fanned 17 in an eight-inning win over Narbonne
Impressive. At Cal State Fullerton, he started as a middle reliever and made some spot starts in his freshman year. In his next year, he emerged as an elite starter:

"TITANS `04: Was second in the conference with 14 victories, trailing only Long Beach State's Jered Weaver (15) •  Had the best winning percentage (.778) of any Titan pitcher  •  Threw back-to-back complete games against Houston (Feb. 21) and Georgia Tech (Feb. 28), allowing only one run in 18 innings while striking out 22 • Threw a complete game shutout on Apr. 9 vs. Pacific, scattering only four hits in the 13-0 win • Was 5-0 in his last six decisions including two wins at the College World Series, and one each in the Regional and Super Regional • Was named to the College World Series All-Tournament team after going 2-0 in 15.2 innings (including a complete game vs. Miami on Jun. 21) while striking out 15 • Was 3-1 with a 1.57 ERA while pitching for Team USA last summer."
Boston drafted him first in the 37th round of the 2002 draft, but he didn't sign with them. But the performance was too much for the Jays to pass by, and he was selected sixth in the 2005 amateur draft as the first pitcher drafted. Notable pitchers also drafted that year included Andrew Bailey, Sergio Romo, Doug Fister, Jeremy Hellickson, Tim Lincecum, Tommy Hanson, Matt Garza, Clay Buchholz, and John Axford, among others.

He was rated the #87 Prospect by Baseball America and had a 2.1 million signing bonus.

Ricky's early years in the minors in 2006 and 2007 were riddled by injury with shoulder and elbow problems. His stats in AA New Hampshire were not that great in 2008 with a WHIP of 1.595 and ERA of 4.96 over 21 starts. AAA Syracuse was much better with an ERA of 3.38 and a K/9 of 8.0.

2009 - 2010 - Welcome to the Show

Romero earned a job on the starting rotation for the 2009 Jays by pitching very well in spring training under Cito Gaston. Ricky was on the staff with ace Roy Halladay and unremarkables David Purcey, Jessie Litsch and  Scott Richmond. Ricky started off brilliantly, had an strained elbow because of a "violent sneeze", then came back and after a couple of rough starts, pitched brilliantly up to the All Star Break with an ERA of 2.38 and a WHIP of 1.2 over 8 starts including three wins in a row against Philadelphia, Tampa, and the Yankees.

Things went downhill after the all-star break. For the rest of the season, he went 6-6 with an ERA of 5.54, a WHIP of 1.77 and batters were hitting to a .829 OPS off of him, just not very good. But the rest of the pitching staff was not very good either (save Halladay), and even the offensive prowess of Adam Lind and Aaron Hill could not stop the team from having a losing season.

2010 was much, much better for Romero. With Roy Halladay gone to the Phillies, the Jays rotation at the beginning of 2010 was Marcum, Tallet, Romero, Morrow, and Eveland. Ricky performed excellently as a number two starter behind Shawn Marcum, with an ERA of 3.73 and a WHIP of 1.29. Ricky had some great games, opening the season with 6 earned runs in his first four starts, a five hit shutout at Texas, a six hit shutout at Baltimore, and a couple of 8 inning starts, including a 2 hitter against the Yankees on August 3rd. He had some rough outings two, including two starts in a row against the Yankees and Boston where he couldn't get out of the 3rd inning. Romero had a decent end of the season. He pitched 3 shutouts, and 7 other starts where he pitched into the 8th inning. Not bad for $400K. But Romero was 4th in the league in walks.

2011 - All star

2011 was Romero's best year. He had the 6th best ERA in the AL at 2.92, 7th in the league in H/9, pitched 4 complete games, and pitched in the all-star game. Though he was 4th in the AL in walks with 80, Romero was the team's defacto, bona fide ace. Ricky only had four tough starts in the year, two against Boston, and one against Detroit and the Yankees. His WHIP was 1.14, and his breaking ball and change up was tremendously successful. Despite his 15-11 record, he had some games with very poor run support. And in a the season's starting rotation that included the rookie Kyle Drabek, Jessie Litsch, Jo Jo Reyes, and Brett Cecil, Romero was the ace (especially during Morrow's off year).

Ricky's gift in 2011 and earlier years is the ability to get out of jams. With RISP in 2011, batters hit .171 / .276 / .262 against him. When runners were on first, Ricky clamped down on the walk, only walking in 5% of plate appearances, (vs 9% when the bases were empty).

But equally interesting for 2011 was that Romero's worst inning is the 5th, and Romero's worst hitter is the #5 hitter in the lineup. (they have an ridiculously high .326 / .417 / .618 stat -- consider that the #4 man in the lineup bats .162 / .217 / .232). His OPS against is also much higher against the lead off hitter in an inning.

The other interesting thing about Ricky is that even though he throws left, left hitting hitters hit substantially better (.269) than righthanders (.194). This is very likely due to his sweeping curve ball which completely fools the right handed hitters but cannot use against the left handed hitters.

Now, for 2012, many analysts pointed at Ricky's BABIP (Batting Average with balls in play) of .245 which is well below the league average of .290 meanng that he was experiencing some luck in fielding. In addition, he had a very low line drive rate, which also points to luckiness for the pitcher. As a result, many people were expecting Ricky to have a tougher year in 2012.

2012 - Rough times

But 2012 for Ricky just has not been  good at all. He's had the benefit early on of alot of run support, which explains his 8-1 start, despite a 4.34 ERA and a WHIP of 1.34 with 46 walks over 95.1 innings. His BABIP was still below the league average at .254. Rough times were to come.

Since June 27th, Ricky has yet to record a win (due to bad run support and poor outings). His ERA over 10 starts is 7.45 with 33 walks over 54.1 innings pitched and a WHIP of 1.84. His BABIP was well above the league average at .348. His starts in those past 10 have been very inconsistent with 5 games of recording 6 earned runs or more. In his other 5 starts, he's done much better with 9 earned runs in 32 innings pitched (2.53 ERA) and a WHIP of 1.18, including starts against the Yankees, Cleveland, and the White Sox.

Opinion

The issue with Ricky right now is his consistency. His bases on balls has always been a problem, and when he struggles with his fastball command, he cannot get ahead of his hitters and therefore cannot use his curve ball which usually lands well outside of the strike zone. The opposing batters have recognized this and sit on the fastball, especially if he isn't placing it well.

I don't think it's a coincidence at all that his terrible slide started to happen when Morrow, Drabek, and Hutchinson went down starting June 11. I think that he took on all of the pressures on the team onto his shoulders, and started to try to be perfect. With the Jays in the midst of still competing for a wild card spot, I think he took it on himself to be the ace of the team and to perform really well. I believe that the pressure has gone to his head, and as a result, his pitching suffered.

Ricky's splits are quite different this year. His RISP numbers are just average compared to his numbers overall. He still does not pitch particularly well to leadoff hitters (OPS .783). His walk rate with men on 1st is double (10%) of what it was last year. His worst hitters in the lineup are at the bottom of the order (batting .277 vs .249 for the middle of the order). This shows a lack of concentration. In addition, John Farrell gives all of his pitchers a fairly short leash, going to the bullpen later in games with the starting pitcher gets into any sense of a jam. This frustrates any starting pitcher, but none more so than Romero.

Romero plays with passion. He wants to win, and it's clear from his emotional outbursts (the yelling into his glove, his outbursts on the bench) that I think he plays a very dangerous game inside of his head. I also don't think it's a coincidence that he had three good starts in a row beginning of the end of July when he realized that the team would not be competing for the playoffs -- the pressure was off and he could relax. 

My belief is that if Ricky can stop trying to be perfect and just go out there and live for each individual at bat and each individual inning, the game will come back to him. He needs to place his fastball just right, and be able to use his curve ball with two strikes and less than 3 balls to get people out. He has got to get rid of the pressure in his head and just concentrate on the task at hand.

He proved last year that he can be the ace of this team. I still beleive that he and Brandon Morrow can be a formibable duo at the head of the rotation.

Ricky, just take the pressure off yourself and pitch. Then, maybe in a few years, that bobblehead will be a collectible.

August 18: Rangers 2, Jays 1

Jays miss moments to mount comeback - fall short in vilifying Villanueva

While the pitching staff held the Rangers to two runs, Escobar, Rasmus, and Johnson are falling short, really short for the Blue Jays offense.

Villanueva pitched another brilliant outing against the hard-hitting Texas Rangers, holding them to two runs for the second night in a row. After Villanueva faced the minimum after 4 innings, an Adrian Beltre ground rule double (that Gose should have had -- he lost it in the sun) and was followed up by a Nelson Cruz home run. Both hits were due to a 82 mph changeup that Villanueva left up. Villanueva left the game with one on and one out at the top of the 7th. His pitching line was great: 4 hits, 2 earned runs, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts over 6 1/3, throwing 86 pitches (58) for strikers.

Aaron Loup, Chad Jenkins, and Darren Oliver pretty much shut down the remainder of the Texas offense as they got one more single in the top of the 8th.

The Jays offense was pretty much as disappointing as usual with many missed opportunities. The Jays offense came in the bottom of the third from the AAA combination of Gose and Hechavarria. Anthony Gose hit a single, stole 2nd, was balked to 3rd, and scored on Hechavarria's first RBI of his major league career, a single to right.

In the bottom of the fourth, Edwin was on second with no one out but couldn't advance as Cooper lined, Yunel flew, and Jeff Mathis struck out.

In the bottom of the fifth, Anthony Gose singled and Hechavarria advanced him to 2nd on a sacrifice bunt. Davis then bunt popped out and Colby popped out.

In the bottom of the sixth, Cooper and Escobar singled with one out. Johnson struck out, but Jeff Mathis reached on a slow single to Kinsler to load the bases for Gose, who struck out after 10 pitches (a great at bat, but was beaten).

And in the bottom of the seventh, the Jays had runners at 1st and 3rd with nobody out (Hechavarria ground rule double, Davis single). Colby then popped out to 3rd base. Edwin was intentionally walked to load the bases. David Cooper flew out to left field, but the ball was not deep enough, and Hech was given the stop sign from Butterfield. And Yunel hit a short fly ball to center to leave the Jays with nothing to show.

The Jays then went 6 up, 6 down to lose the game.

Some positives of the game was Mathis's throw to 2nd to catch a stealing Craig Gentry at the top of the 3rd, and a nice pick off by Loup to catch David Murphy going to 2nd. Hechavarria went 2 for 3.

Major disappointments was Colby Rasmus batting 0 for 5 and is now running an 0-14 streak and is 5-30 with one HR since he came back from his groin injury on August 3. Kelly Johnson is batting 2-20 in his last 7 games. Escobar is battng 3 for 23 in his last 7 games. So, it is the regulars who are now a big part of the problem for the Jays offence. When these three regulars combine to hit one hit per game, it's easy to see why the Jays offense is extra impotent in the last week. Only Edwin (who is 10-25 in the last 7) and Rajai (10 for 35 in his last 8 and 7 stolen bases) have been potent for the veteran Jays.

This is a game that the Jays would probably win with Bautista, Lawrie, Lind, and Arencibia in the lineup -- a tough show for the Jays today, but it shouldn't come as a surprise. Rasmus' bat needs to heat up again, and Brett indeed is due back early next week probably in Detroit although he only went to bat once in today's Gulf Coast game (due to poor field conditions).

Tomorrow's game features Henderson Alvarez vs Matt Harrison in what is sure to be an offensively challenged day yet again for the Blue Jays.

Friday, August 17, 2012

August 17: Rangers 2 Jays 3

JA Happ shines in start against not-so-hard hitting Rangers

Texas, since August 1st is batting .287 / .353 / .791 and can be explosive at the plate. Happ wasn't fazed, pitching six innings, letting one run score on two hits, striking out 8 over six innings and 98 pitches. This is exactly the start required for the Jays to have a chance to win, and with Edwin back in the lineup, the Jays had a chance to score a couple of runs against Yu Darvish.

Yu hasn't be so yu-ish lately. In his past 9 starts, he's 4-4 with an ERA of 5.85 and a WHIP of 1.45. So, the Jays had a chance to do a little bit of damage. The Jays sported six vets in the lineup, (Cooper, Sierra, and Gose were the AAA Jays). Rasmus was scratched with his aggravated groin injury.

Scoring opened for Toronto in the 1st inning with a Kelly Johnson walk followed by Edwin's 31st home run to make it 2-0.

Happ, meanwhile, had a perfect 3 innings, striking out 6 in a row in the 2nd and 3rd inning, before walking Kinsler at the top of the 4th, but finished off the side. Happ got into a bit of trouble in the 5th, letting in a couple of singles before a sacrifice bunt and a ground out allowed a run to score. Happ then pitched a 1-2-3 6th and left the game.

The Jays running game took over in bottom of the 5th. With two out, Anthony Gose hit a fly ball that Gentry couldn't reach, and the ball bobbled around in the corner, while Gose pulled off a Usain Bolt with a triple despite the ball being no more than 10 feet from Gentry. Gose's triple was the difference in the game: Rajai knocked him in with a single, but then stole 2nd AND 3rd base before Kelly Johnson struck out.

Rajai is ridiculous in that he has 37 stolen bases (8 caught) in 80 stolen base opporuntinues. That's a 56% attempt to steal rate. Miami's Emilio Bonifacio has 33 stolen bases / attempts in 99 opportunites, for a rate of 33%. Mike Trout's rate is 23%. Rajai is prolific and aggressive, and the pitchers really can't do anything about it.

Delabar meanwhile came on the 7th and got into a bit of trouble. Delabar walked Beltre, and then gave up a single to Adrian Young and walked Nelson Cruz to load the bases with two outs. Rookie Mike Olt then hit a grounder to Omar Visquel who uncharacteristly booted it for an error to cut the lead to 3-2. Out went Delabar, and in come Brandon Lyon to face Ian Kinsler, who grounded to Escobar. Fans let out a big sigh.

Darvish had a good night too, letting in 3 runs over 7 innings, striking out 10, pitching 114 pitches (71 for strikes), allowing only 3 hits and 1 walk, meaning that the Jays were very efficient in scoring runs.

The Jays then used Lyon, Loup, and Lincoln to pitch a 1-2 inning to Andrus, Hamilton, and Beltre. Lincoln, however did not get Beltre out as he hit a broken bat single to left. Michael Young then grounded out as Lincoln preserved the game with a one run lead.

KC Janssen then pitched the 9th for his 16th save against the bottom of the Texas lineup, pitching a 1-2-3 inning. Gose and Escobar pretty much ran into each other for the fly for the 2nd out.

This is precisely the only way the Jays are going to win games for another week when both Lawrie and Bautista return and Rasmus returns healthy. Excellent starting pitching, a little bit of run support, and a strong bullpen is the only way the Jays can expect to win games in the next week against Texas, Detroit and Baltimore.

Great game for the Jays fans to watch in this nailbiter.

Death, Dying and the Blue Jays

Middle aged man suffers cardiac arrest after 7th inning stretch



Tom Szczerbowski / US PressWire

Last night's game against the White Sox was stopped in the bottom of the 7th inning with the Jays at bat when a fan went into cardiac arrest. EMS officials attempted to revive him in the stands, and from eyewitness accounts it appears that Kevin Youkilis told the 3rd base umpire to stop the game.

The fan was carted off the field while EMS officials continued to perform CPR. Ambulances could be heard around the Rogers Centre. The man died later in hospital, according first to CityTV news (which released a breaking news release on Twitter). The game was delayed by about 5 minutes while the matter was attended to.

Paul Attfield of the Globe and Mail writes:

"It was not a good sight. It was bad," said Chicago third baseman Kevin Youkilis. "I could see the guy pumping on him, doing something where I just knew it was happening too long. I said something to [third-base umpire] Mark [Wegner] and finally I was like 'We've got to stop this thing.'"

The game was halted for approximately four or five minutes while the man, who appeared to be middle-aged, was lifted onto a cart and taken from the Rogers Centre field and on to hospital. The incident – the second at Rogers Centre this summer following another cardiac arrest on June 29 - certainly left an indelible mark on the players Thursday night."
  I have a few thoughts on the incident. First, a caveat. I did not know this man's circumstances, did not know the man. I was not on the field or near him. I listened to the incident as Mike Wilner described it, then read news stories as they broke last night.

That said, it puts baseball in reality. Baseball is just a game. It's a huge game and a multi-billion dollar industry in North America, Latin America, and Japan, but it is just a game. Tragedy has been seen on the field before. There was the child who watch his father fall to his death at the Texas Rangers July 7, 2011. There was the man who fell to his death while sliding down a staircase rail at Coors field in May of last year.

People attend baseball games for entertainment and because they are fans of the game. This man who died probably was a fan of the game. He had great seats along the 3rd baseline and was watching a pretty good game. Whether the man had a cardiac arrest at the game or at home watching the game, or on a Monday morning going to work, or during sex, the man was probably due for a cardiac arrest. I am not trying to be callous here, but the powers that be chose this time in this man's life for a heart attack. He was due. No specific event at the ball game caused him to have a unique event that he wasn't going to experience in the near-term anyway.  

The Toronto EMS crews did what they did for the guy and he received the best of care. 

We are all going to die. Life is short. As a fan of the game, dying at a game due to a cardiac arrest is not the worst way to die. There are plenty of tragic ways to die. They're lingering deaths like cancer. There's meaningless deaths like suicide and being hit by a drunk driver. There are withering deaths like Alzheimer's, dementia, senility and on so on. Cardiac arrest at a ball game? Sounds like a perfect way for me to go. My only wish is that it happens while Toronto is in the World Series.

Still, fans, when you're living your life and feeling frustration or elation about your team, whoever it may be, remember that baseball is just a game. What goes on in your day-to-day life is your choice, and what you focus on in life is your choice. If you choose to make a game where 25 overpaid men on 30 major league teams throw around a ball and try to hit a ball with a 2-3 pound wooden stick, that's your choice. Fandom has its rewards and its frustrations, that is for sure.

The man's death put a little bit of perspective on my own life, and certainly, it put some perspective on the 20,000 fans, staff, and players at the park. Perspective and reflection is a good thing.

Now go, and live life.

Thursday, August 16, 2012

August 16: White Sox 7, Jays 2

Home run ball hurts Laffey; bullpen puts game out of reach


Aaron Laffey gave up three hits, but they were all  bases empty home runs by the White Sox, including back to back shots to open the 5th inning. Laffey's line was good, with 5 strikeouts and two walks over 6 innings, throwing 91 pitches (51 strikes). Homeruns were by DeWayne Wise, Viciedo, and Flowers. Flowers home run hit just below the upper deck, just above the Tony Fernandez sign on the "Level of Excellence". Wow.

The Jays, with Edwin out of the lineup with a sore shoulder and forearm due to the diving catch the night before, once again, could not muster up offense. The offence: a David Cooper single followed by a Moises Sierra home run. Three of the four Jays' hits were managed in the 2nd inning.

During the bottom of the 7th with Gose on 2nd, Toronto EMS carted off a middle-aged man who suffered a cardiac arrest in the stands along the 3rd base line. Apparently, Kevin Youkilis (perhaps at the request of security) requested the game to be stopped so that EMS could attend to the fans. The five minute game stoppage affected everyone who attended the game and put a pall on the game. For a few minutes, people realized that baseball was just a game and put perspective on their own lives for a few moments. The man later died in hospital. Blue Jays players and White Sox players alike were stunned.

Perhaps this might be an excuse for what happened in the next inning. Darren Oliver sealed the deal for Chicago in the 8th inning as Blue Jays traitor Alex Rios hit a 3 run home run to left field to score a Kevin Youkilis single and a Adam Dunn walk. Darren Oliver has been absolutely stellar this season, and it was the 3rd home run he has given up. In his 46 appearances this season, he has given up 6 runs (all earned) over 42 2/3rds innings. Up until tonight, the most runs he's given up in an inning has been 1. He is responsible for 2 losses. Oliver left the game with two outs.

Then, Brandon Lyon gave up a home run to Alexei Ramirez (the first batter in the thhat he faced) before striking out Viciedo to end the top of the 8th.

Liriano was great tonight, and the Jays veterans (Davis, Rasmus, Escobar, Johnson, Mathis) went 2 for 17 (2 infield hits by Mathis) with a walk. The Jays are not going to win games when the veterans don't hit.

Now, the Jays face the AL West leading Texas Rangers, probably without Edwin, and definitely without Lawrie, a hurt Rasmus, Bautista, Lind, Arencibia... the list goes on.

Encarnacion day-to-day with shoulder soreness

Edwin naturally gets hurt playing in his unnatural position



Nathan Denette / CP

Encarnacion has never been known as a good fielder, but has made a home at first base after Adam Lind deserved demotion into the minors. Last night, Farrell decided to stick him in left field so that both Cooper and Rasmus could be in the lineup. Typically, it makes me grimace to see Encarnacion playing anywhere but first because he is a defensively liability anywhere else.

Encarnacion got three balls to play in left field last night, and it was the second one that did him in. 
Nathan Denette / CP


You can see the video (2nd video down) here. You see Encarnacion rubbing his shoulder after the play as he leaned against the wall in left field. A valiant try, but a catch that Rajai Davis probably runs down and makes.

A couple of Jays fans remarked during the post game scrum on Blue Jays talk that Encarnacion might have been hurt on the play, to which Wilner responded that you can't protect players all of the time, and whether Edwin hurts himself diving at a ball at first or making the play in left, players are going to do that.

True, that. John Farrell, the baseball gods have not been kind to you. I understand the need to get Colby some at bats, but look at the result.

So during the pre-game workouts prior to the finale with the White Sox, Edwin was scratched and is now listed day-to-day with soreness in his left shoulder and forearm, according to SportsNet's Shi Davidi on Twitter.

And Encarnacion has been the big engine that could. Since the all-star break, he is hitting .287 / .402 / .556 and leads the team in RBIs, Walks, Home Runs, and pretty much every other meaningful category. Without Edwin in the line up, there really is NO veteran offensive threat left on the team.

That said, David Cooper has been doing well, and regular at bats will allow him to prove himself some more. And Colby can now continue to recover at DH.

Would the Jays be contending now but for the injuries?

Could the Jays have won 4 more games of the last 29 with an intact lineup? Sure. Does that make them a contender? Maybe.


Listening to Wilner's the Blue Jays talk last night, Wilner believed that "absolutely, the team would be contending right now" if the Jays were not injured. He stated that since the Jays lost Bautista, the team went 11-18.

Let's say that instead of 11-18, they went 15-14. Where would they be in the standings today? On July 16, the Jays were 45-45 (now 56-63), and they were two games back of Detroit (47-43) for the remaining wildcard spot.

Okay, without Bautista, they got swept by the Yankees, but then swept the Boston Red Sox. On Sunday, July 22, the Jays were 48-47, but three games out of a wild card behind the Orioles at 51-44. It's safe to say that the results in the Bronx would not have changed as the Jats lost 6-0 and 6-1. Bautista's bat would not have been a factor.

For the Oakland series at home, July 25th was the last day that we saw Adam Lind and JP Arencibia. The Jays missing those three in the line up would have had no effect on the outcome (The Jays sans Bautista would not have come back from a 8 run disaster by Romero nor a 7-2 decision the day before). So at the end of the Oakland series at home on July 26 (a game that they won), the Jays record was 49-49, 4 games back of Oakland for the final wild card spot. No change to the Jays record thus far purely due to injuries in the starting lineup.

The Jays then won two of three against the Tigers on the weekend series and lost 4-1 on the Sunday game with Cecil pitching against Fister. Without Arencibia, Lind and Bautista, it's safe to say that this loss still would have happened -- the Jays only threatened in the 3rd and 4th inning in this game and the batters up were regulars. So as of July 29, the Jays record is still unchanged at 51-50, 4 games back of the Angels for the final wild card spot.

So, let's be clear. Before the road trip to the west coast, on July 30th, the Jays were 4 games out a playoff spot with a record of 51-50, and there are no games that the Jays really would have won with Bautista, Lind, and Arencibia in the lineup. They either lost by too many runs or weren't due in the lineup to comeup in situations with runners on base.

Anthopoulos therefore would have made the same moves at the trade deadline.

The West Coast has always been particularly hard on the Jays, and with the trade of Snider, the offense really started to lag at this point, and with the Jays without Arencibia, Lind, Bautista, and now Snider out of the lineup, it's safe to say that perhaps the Jays would have won the finale (which they lost 5-3) as there were many opportunities for the Jays but the wrong bats were up. Seattle had just come off of a sweep of Kansas and were playing well. Still, the Jays should have won one game in Seattle. This puts the Jays at 52-52 going into Oakland for the four game series, now games back of Oakland.

So, now the Jays in Oakland and in the first game they lost 4-1 against Alvarez. Cooper went 1-3 (in place of Lind, Gose went 1-4 in place of Bautista, and Gomes went 0-4). Perhaps two hits would have been added by the senior jays. I think they could have won this game as they were threatening a few times where Bautista / Arencibia would have been at bat instead of Gose / Gomes. The Jays win this one if their line up was intact.

The August 3rd game was the 15 inning affair where the Jays lost Lawrie and Rasmus and was the breaking point truly for this team. Still, I will put this in the loss column for the Jays just because I don't think the Jays get out of Oakland with less than one loss. So the Jays go 3-1 in Oakland instead of 2-2, and the Jays are 55-53 out of Oakland (Oakland is then 57-51). This puts the Jays two game out of a wild card spot going into Tampa.

Tampa has never been good to the Jays (7 years since they won a series there), so I am going to put them 1-2 in the series instead of 0-3 (I think the Jays beat Cobb on the Wednesday night game). Jays are 56-55 out of Tampa (who are then 58-53) and are still only three games back of the wild card spot.

Time for a reality check -- It's reasonable that the Jays would go 5-5 on the road. Oakland did not play very well, and the Jays should have taken that series. And winning 2 of 6 against Seattle and Tampa is reasonable.

The Jays then go home to face the Yankees in last weekend's series sans Lawrie, Rasmus, Bautista, Arencibia, and Lind. The Yankees would have won the opener anyway as they won 10-4. The Jays probably don't take Saturday's game either. So, the result of this series remains the same at 1-2. Jays would by 57-57 after New York, 4 games back of a wild card (Tampa would be 61-53, Baltimore 62-53). Also ahead of Toronto: Oakland (60-54), Detroit (61-54) and the Angels (60-55).

This takes us to the current series. It's safe to say I think that the Jays win Tuesday night's game (they lost 3-2) as they were threatening several times and couldn't convert. This puts the Jays right now going into tonight's game at 59-58, 5 games back of Baltimore, 3 back of Tampa (62-55), 2.5 back of Detroit (63-55), 1.5 back of the Angels (62-56) and 1/2 game back of Oakland (60-56).

So, without the injuries, I beleive that the Jays get one win back from each of Seattle, Oakland, Tampa, and Chicago. Instead of the Jays being 55-62, they are 59-58, three games back of a wild card. And I think that this number is bang on. They were .500 going into the Baustista injury and the improvements that the team made at the deadline would not have drastically improved this number.

At the trade deadline, Anthopoulos gave up on the Jays by not adding a good (sorry, Happ) veteran arm to the rotation while other contenders did. He did not believe that the Jays were a contending team being 4 games back just before the Jays left for the west coast.

When you look at the standings today, even with the four extra wins, the Jays would have needed to get by four other teams who would still be doing better than them. Detroit or Tampa are projected to have 87 wins and that's the magic number (Probably it is 88). For the Jays to hit that, they would have needed to go 28-17 against a very difficult schedule. Not impossible, but not likely either.

Wilner would call a team 3, 4, even 5 games out of a wild card a contending team. But given the number of wins they would have to take to make the wild card and the teams that they would have to pass, I would not have called them a contender on July 16th, and I wouldn't have called them a contender today even with 59 wins.  

So yep, blames the injuries for the Jays woes. It's the sad truth, but even without the injuries to the starting lineup, the Jays probably would not be contenders.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

August 15: White Sox 9, Jays 5

Romero and Lincoln blow game after Johnson's blast ties game

Ricky Romero's biggest problem is himself. Rather than just pitch, he has the game all inside his head. When the three pitchers went on the DL in mid-June, rather than continuing to pitch well, he fell apart, not that he was particularly good this season to begin with, sporting a 4.15 ERA and a WHIP around 1.3 in his first 13 starts in the season. But since the Philadelphia start until the end of July, he truly sucked. Over 9 starts, his ERA was 8.37 with a WHIP over 2, with a K to BB ratio very close to 1. 

He had a couple of good starts, but tonight, Ricky was just warm and cold. To open the top of the the 2nd inning, two runs scored on four singles opened the 2nd inning, throwing 11 fastballs in a row to the 5-8 hitters (Pierzynski, Ramirez, Viciedo, and Dewayne Wise). Mind you, Edwin was playing left tonight and despite a valiant effort by Edwin to catch Wise's line drive, he ended up dropping it. Then to open the 4th, Romero walks Viciedo and then Dewayne Wise hits a home run to the 100 level in right. It was 4-0 at the end of 4.

The Jays opened scoring at the bottom of the 5th against Gavin Floyd as a double steal by Visquel (on 2nd) and Gose went awry with Davis striking out. Pierzynski's throw went errant, hit Visquel, who ended up scoring. 4-1 after 5.

In the bottom of the 6th, the Jays tied it (after Romero retired 9 in a row) on a three run blast by Kelly Johnson to score Edwin (single) and David Cooper (ground rule double). 

But at the top of the 7th, Ricky lost his concentration again, walking De Aza on 5 pitches and plunking Youkilis. Out went Ricky, on came Brad Lincoln. Brad Lincoln just came off of his worst relief effort in a 10-4 lead against the Yankees, letting in 3 runs over 4 hits three days ago. Brad Lincoln couldn't find the plate against Adam Dunn, and when he did, he let it fly out of the park for a three run homer to the 200 section in right. Four batters later, Viciedo homered to plate Piercynski. 

Chad Jenkins pitched a quick 1-2-3 ninth. Jeff Mathis hit a solo homer in the 9th against Philip Humber, but the Jays did nothing else.

Fans are not going to be happy with Brad Lincoln or the trade. Travis Snider is hitting .325 / .360 / .450 in Pittsburgh which is what the Jays have really needed. Lincoln, meanwhile, has not looked good in the last two outings, and has not contributed to a Jays win in his previous four outings. My response is to give Lincoln some more chances.

And fans certainly are not going to be happy with Ricky after tonight's game. His head just isn't screwed on properly. Hopefully he spends alot of valuable time with a Spanish speaking sports therapist between his starts because man, he needs it.

On a positive, I do like the middle of the makeshift lineup with David Cooper following up Edwin Encarnacion. Cooper is just really proving himself up in Toronto, making us not miss Adam Lind at all.

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Anthopoulos and the mysterious catcher

Get out the shovel




Today, AA talked to the press about the catching situation, hinting that there's a good chance that Mathis (who inked a two year contract extension today), JP Arencibia (who is nursing a broken hand), and Travis D'Arnaud will all be on the team next spring, and that Travis D'Arnaud might start as the DH.

In this case, I really don't believe a word of Alex Anthopolous is saying. And the fact that the press is eating this up as gospel is equally as alarming. Analysis, please.
The position of DH needs to be taken by an experienced bat, not a rookie who has had zero playing experience in the Show. If you look at all of the other teams in the AL, the regular DHs are David Ortiz (Red Sox), Billy Butler (Royals), Kendrys Morales (Angels), Ryan Doumit (Twins), Adam Dunn (White Sox), Gomes (Oakland), Michael Young (Texas), and Travis Hafner (Indians). These are all experienced players with skills at positions other than catcher. Joe Mauer DHs because of his knees.

The Designated Hitter is supposed to be the best bat on the team, and it is supposed to be the best bat on the team who cannot play a position particularly well, whose defensive abilities would be a liability compared to another person on the team in the same position. In other words, Edwin Encarnacion. The Designated Hitter needs to be experienced, knows the game, knows situational hitting, and can threaten in clutch situations. None of these are Travis D'Arnaud.

There have been a few rookie DH hitters who went on to win Rookie of the Year honors. Evan Longoria was a DH in 2008, but he also plays third. Bob Hamelin is another rookie DH for Kansas City in 1994 but he also played 1st.

The position of catcher is highly specialized. Catchers are smart. They run the ball game defensively, calling the pitches, remembering who the hitters are. Athleticly, they need to be tough, crouching for all pitches, taking pitches, throwing quickly to bases, running down the line to cover plays, and being diplomats with umpires. There's a reason why catchers make great analysts in radio and television.

Putting Travis D'Arnuad, who has been called the best catching prospect in the game, at DH would be a waste of talent. He is unproven in the majors at the bat and will likely not be the best bat available at DH (Edwin). He is talented defensively at the position.

So, please Alex Anthopoulos and the Blue Jays, if you are going to consider putting Edwin on regularly at 1st and relegating Adam Lind to another team, please consider the free agent market and get a veteran in there instead of a DH. Travis D'Arnaud is a catcher, not a DH, and certainly not a rookie DH.

Don't kid yourself. Expect a trade of Travis D'Arnaud or JP Arencibia in the offseason, hopefully for a starter.

August 14: White Sox 3, Jays 2

White Sox hang on to win

Why would Charlie Sheen throw out the first pitch? I mean, why not Joe Carter? As it turned out the Jays would need more than two and a half runs to win this ball game.

Henderson Alvarez pitched a pretty solid effort as the Chicago White Sox turned away the Jays' threats in each of the last five innings.

Alvarez's first four innings went smoothly as the Jays took a 2-0 lead into the top of the 5th.

In the bottom of the first, Yunel Escobar singled home Mike McCoy who unsuccessfully sacrified Davis who led the game with a single. Why you attempt to bunt in the bottom of the first with none on and your fastest runner on first I wonder? I really don't know that answer to that one. It's too early to trade an out for a iffy shot at moving over your runner, and it was unsuccessful. Remember that the sacrifice does not always work!!! The Jays left 2 on in the 1st.

In the bottom of the third, Mike McCoy scored Rajai Davis who doubled and then took third for his 34th stolen base (3 behind Mike Trout) and his 15th steal of 3rd base, 5 ahead of Coco Crisp.

Here's the amazing thing about the 2.5 million dollar man aka Rajai Davis: Rajai has had only 74 stolen base opportunities, while Mike Trout has had 180. Mike Trout tries to steal in about 22% of his opportunites, while Rajai attempts to steal in in about 55% of opportunties. If Rajai had the same opportunities as Mike Trout, he would have about 80 stolen bases by now! No one in the AL even comes close to this. So, Rajai should just work on getting on base, and he should be the regular left fielder, day in, day out. When he does get on base, he takes extra bases on 68% of hits, third in the AL among regulars. Simply put, this guy is aggressive, and he wreaks more havoc on the bases than anyone else in the AL. Add to that the fact that he went 3-4 tonight and he's really proving himself to be the regular dude in left, questionable defense aside (he needs to hit his cutoff man, and sometimes he loses focus, despite the catch of the year on the Sunday).

Anyway, enough about Rajai. On to the top of the 5th. A series of four singles by Pierzynski, Viciedo, De Aza (to knock in Pierzynski), and ex-Jay DeWayne Wise (to knock in Viciedo) put runners on 1st and 3rd with 2 out. Henderson tried the "patented" move to third - move to 1st play in order to catch one of the runners sleeping, a reasonable move with two very fast runners. He ended up throwing to first and sailed it high to Cooper, who jumped in an attempt to catch the ball, but it went off of David's glove about 10 feet behind him, which allowed the speedy De Aza to score and take the lead at 3-2.

The Jays threatened in each inning. In the bottom of the 5th, the Jays loaded the bases with one out and Edwin up. But Edwin hit a sharp liner to Kevin Youkilis who made a great catch and a great throw to 2nd to double off Rajai. End of rally. Bad luck.

Moises reached in the 6th with two out but Kelly Johnson couldn't do anything. In the 7th with one out, Hechavarria doubled (his first extra base hit) in the 7th and Rajai walked, but Mike McCoy (who is hitting 2nd in the order, ouch!) and Edwin couldn't do anything. And in the 8th, a lead off double by David Cooper (replaced by Gose) couldn't be cashed as Yunel and Moises lined out while Yan Gomes struck out, leaving Gose on third.  And Colby, on to pinch hit for Hechavarria hit a single in the 9th with one out but couldn't be cashed as Reed recorded his 21st save.

Henderson was strong tonight, pitching 7 innings and throwing only 84 pitches (59 for strikes) while striking out only two, walking none, and scattering out 3 other hits besides the 4 in the 5th over the other six innings. This would qualify as one of his very good outings (his 4th in his last 10th starts). Consistency now is the key for Alvarez. He needs to keep his sinking fast ball down and develop an out pitch so that he can record more strikeouts. Without the strikeout, more balls go into play, and these result in more hits. 21 home runs certainly is alot (9th in the AL) while is K/9 at 3.2 is near the bottom of the list.

When Morrow comes up, who is going to be off of the rotation? There are about 9 starts left for each starter in a 5 player rotation. At 6 innings per start, Romero, Morrow and Happ will be fine. Villanueva will be at his innings limit (which should be 130) after 8 starts so he'll make it pretty much to the end. Henderson Alvarez has pitched 143 major league innings and threw 159 innings (63 MLB innings) and should top out at the most 190 innings, which gives him 9 more starts to take him pretty much to the end. That leaves Aaron Laffey, who threw only 85 innings in 2010 and 56 in 2011, has already thrown 125 innings this year. I think he will be the odd man out when Morrow returns.

Injury updates

Colby pinch hit in the 9th innings and looked sore. His groin will need more healing before he can come back and play center - I am guessing about a week. In the meantime, they are looking at Colby to DH.

Brett Lawrie comes off the DL on Sunday, August 19 (Baltimore) and Floridians can celebrate as he gets a couple of rehab starts down in Dunedin. Just put up alot of warning tape near any hazards so he doesn't dive into a ditch. I think he'll be back for the road trip and look forward to seeing him in Detroit on Tuesday night next week.

Jose Bautista is swinging off a tee. He will need rehab starts too, and soon, before the minor leagues shut down at the end of the month. My bet is that he will be back at the end of August.

Brandon Morrow pitched a fine start tonight in AA New Hampshire (striking out 6 in 4.1 innings with 65 pitches) and will make one more start and will probably make his return in Baltimore during the August 24-26 series.

Adam Lind should be ready to play but with Cooper doing well at first, he's being kept from hitting for now.

JP Arencibia should be back in mid-September. His cast comes off later today and they will evaluate from there.

Transactions and Comments

The Jays extended Jeff Mathis by two years, meaning that he will likely be the regular backup catcher in 2013 and 2014. And they also signed veteran catcher Jeff Torrealba to a minor league contract, which means that with JP Arencibia, Jeff Mathis, and Travis D'Arnaud all expected to be major league quality next year, who is going to catch. There's speculation that JPA will move to DH but that would just be a waste of his catching talent. So, I think an off-season trade is in the offing and it won't involve Jeff Mathis. Quite simply, despite JPA's offensive capability to hit home runs, he has far better value as a catcher than a DH. Edwin is the capable DH/1B, and JPA's numbers and lack of experience does not warrant him value as a DH. One will be traded. The Jays would be far better off in an new and improved Adam Lind at 1st or even David Cooper and leave Edwin at DH.

Monday, August 13, 2012

August 13: White Sox 2, Jays 3

Villanueva pitches gem; Cooper recovers Janssen’s blown save as Jays walk off

It took extra innings to score the third run, but it was a heartfelt win that the Jays really, really needed.
The Jays opened the scoring in the bottom of the 3rd with an Edwin single that scored Anthony Gose. Kelly Johnson and Edwin all got caught in the ensuing rundown from the single that resulted in the 3rd out, scored 9-2-6-4-2-5-1-5 (which I believe gets me a pizza if I order it from my work phone).
Carlos Villanueva pitched a gem, retiring 9 in a row before Adam Dunn hit a boomer to center with one out in the 4th. Other than that, Carlos gave up four other singles. On the way he fanned 9 and walked 1 in a gem of a game from the team’s middle reliever, throwing 85 pitches over the seven innings.
Moises Sierra gave the team a lead leading off the bottom of the 7th with a home run to deep left-center field. I am getting more and more impressed with this kid.
Brandon Lyon came on in the 8th to pitch an uneventful inning, with two strikeouts and a fly ball. Then Casey Janssen did what he never did before -- blew a save, doing so on the first pitch of the 9th to Adam Dunn (who now leads the AL in homers with 33). Ramirez then singled but the defense picked up Janssen with a great throw by Mathis to catch Ramirez stealing second.
Then it was the Steve Delabar show after that, as he struck out FOUR in the 10th (passed ball) and two in the 11th.
In the bottom of the 11th, the Jays then had the White Sox on the ropes as a walk to Kelly Johnson followed by an Edwin single put runners on 1st and 3rd with one out. David Cooper then knocked in a single to Alex Rios for the walk-off victory, the first I believe since Rajai Davis’ single in the bottom of the 10th against the Phillies on June 16.
The Jays needed this celebration to show that a team made up of AAA players can win meaningful games. Peavy was tough tonight, pitching 8 innings of 5 hit ball, striking out 6 and walking 2 over 124 pitches (84 for strikes!). But Villanueva’s gem held up and the only meaningful offense by the AL Central leading White Sox was Adam Dunn’s two homers.
I am really starting to like the work of Moises Sierra and David Cooper, who are hitting extremely well in the majors. Moises is making an excellent case to stay up in the majors while Gose goes back down to brew for a while (though his speed will be missed). And David Cooper can stay at first and Adam Lind can take his time healing his back.
When your starting pitcher can come into the game and give you a string of scoreless innings, it will give the offense the confidence it needs to not press for runs and will make the team more effective overall. Great starts from Villanueva and Happ allowed the Jays to do just that.

Sunday, August 12, 2012

August 12: Yankees 7, Jays 10 (no, not 1)

It's the Rajai Davis show as Jays bats wake up


Not photoshopped - Rajai catches this.
 (Fred Thornhill / Reuters)
The Jays struck for 6 runs in the fourth inning as the Jays beat the Yankees in a 10-7 to salvage a game and put an end to a 5 game losing skid.

David Cooper started the scoring in the bottom of the first singling in a Edwin Encarnacion double for the game's first run.


In the fourth, Moises Sierra opened with a single to right, followed by a double by Jeff Mathis to score him. A Yan Gomes sacrifice moved Mathis to third, and Gose took an uncharacteristic walk. Rajai Davis then cleared the bases with a double to give the Jays a 4-0 lead. Mike McCoy, the veteran callup from AAA, singled home Rajai, and then Edwin homered to give the Jays a 7-0 lead through 4.

And JA Happ really came throough and faced the minimum batters through 4 and 1/3rd. A Casey McGehee double scored Andrus Jones to put the Yankees on the board.

Rajai Davis however stole the show again with a bases clearing double to score three (scoring Mathis, Gomes, and Hechavarria)

But JA Happ faced more problems in the top of the 6th as the long ball took over for the Yankees. A solo shot by Jeter followed by a two run no-doubt-about-it dinger from Cano put the Yankees at 10-4. On came Brad Lincoln. Up until the end of the 5th, it was a solid performance, and clearly I think JA Happ was running out of gas by the 6th, as he needs another start to stretch it out.

But there were more problems with Lincoln in the 7th. But it may have been alot worse for the Jays if it wasn't for the play of the year by Rajai Davis, who took a running grab up the wall and took away a definite home run ball by Casey McGehee. This ball is one that outfielders normally give up on. The fence at Rogers is 10 feet tall, and Rajai timed it perfectly to take a run at the wall and use his momentum to go over the wall to make an absolutely spectacular catch to save two runs.

But still, with two out and a runner on 2nd, the Yankees weren't done. Jayson Nix doubled to score Granderson. Derek Jeter doubled to score Jason Nix, and Swisher singled to score Jeter. The Yankees were within striking distance, now behind 10-7. On came Darren Oliver who looked shaky, giving up a double to Teixiera and hitting Robinson Cano (I think on purpose) to load the bases for Andrus Jones, who grounded the ball to a waiting Yan Gomes at 3rd.

Oliver was much stronger in the 8th, striking out the first two before an easy ground ball to Kelly Johnson, who pinch hit for Hechavarria in the 7th.

Janssen came on and closed it with two hard line drives to Johnson who was positioned perfectly followed by an easy fly ball from Nick Swisher to end the game.

Some observations about the game. First, it was good to see Mike McCoy back in Toronto. A utility infielder, he does know how to hit major league hitting and I think puts some stability in the offense over Hechavarria. David Cooper and Moises Sierra can hit. With Adam Lind coming back, Cooper will likely be sidelined put perhaps they will at least leave him on the bench. I hope that Moises (3 for 5 today) gets more playing time but one of Gose or Sierra will be sent down once Bautista is back in a couple of weeks (but they'll only be down for a week as they'll be called up for the September expansion). Anthony Gose is still getting fooled at the plate, striking out on 2 of his four plate appearances. And finally, Rajai is earning a steady look in left for the season as he showed a flash of brilliance in left (which makes up for losing the ball in the lights on Friday night and then some) and tied his personal record of 5 RBIs. Edwin had a 3 for 5 night, short the triple in the cycle. And finally, it was surprising to see Brad Lincoln get roughed up for three runs, his worst outing as a reliever this season.

Now, Alex Rios and the AL Central leading White Sox come to town for four. The Jays will face Jake Peavy (9-8 3.08 ERA), Jose Quintana (4-2, 2.78 ERA), Gavin Floyd (8-9, 4.43 ERA), and Francisco Liriano (3-10, 5.35 ERA) who got roughed up in the last outing. The Jays will throw Villanueva, Alvarez, Romero, and Laffey in return. Adam Lind may return to the lineup, and we will likely see Colby Rasmus later in the week along with Yunel Escobar. I'm thinking that the Jays are in rough for the first two but can win the last two in the series for a nice series split before Texas comes to town.

It's an unrelenting schedule for the Jays, but with the pressure off, perhaps the Jays can take their time in recovering its stars and get the Las Vegasers some more plate appearances.

Were the Blue Jays doomed from the start?

What went wrong?


The Jays season looked promising enough: a great spring training at 25-7, with good performances by a number of starters, good performances by the starters, and a fairly healthy team, with McGowan the only culprit with a sore foot. The team was stronger than last year, with Brett Lawrie being the regular third baseman, a decent hitting Adam Lind, and a strong Colby Rasmus in center field. Bautista was back, and Encarnacion was also hitting well. Arencibia was back for his second full season, defensively much better. Anthopoulos went out and got proven bullpen in Darren Oliver, signed Casey Janssen to a two year extension, got back Jason Frasor, and acquired Cordero who had 37 saves for the Reds last year, and Sergio Santos who had 30 saves for the White Sox. Things were looking up.

And the fans bought into the hype too, buying 22% more tickets than last year (the rest of the league is up 4%) on the hopes of a team competing in the AL East vs a hurt Red Sox, a rebuilding Tampa Bay, and a mediocre Orioles team.

The team really received a one-two punch that did them in for the season. The one punch was losing three of their starters in one week, which I believe led to the demise of Ricky Romero due to the intense pressure for him to perform (the pressure he put on himself -- after the win at Miami on June 22, he has yet to win a game. The bats came to life however and left the team around the .500 mark with hope really slipping away game by game as they stayed roughly five games back of the wild card mark.

But the #2 punch happened on July 26th, when Arencibia broke his hand and Lind left the same night with a sore back. From that point, the team has hit a breaking point. Add to that outages by Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus and you have a team full of not-ready-for-prime time players to fill the spots. It is easy for good pitchers to pitch around a team when you have only four major league players in your line up. Snider's trade away didn't help team morale either.

Now the fans are blaming AA and Rogers for not spending the money on the Jays. Clearly, Rogers is afraid to sign blockbuster agreements. They dumped Vernon Wells' contract (fantastic move) and Alex Rios (good move). Bautista and Encarnacion's contracts are steals and most MLB analysts thing that those contracts are extremely good values for the Jays. They traded away Halladay. And I've explained in another post that the Jays activities represent about 1% of the total action within Rogers Communications, Inc, but the expectation is that they will be profitable. So, the fans are right. The only way that the Jays will spend some money is to build up the team slowly through value, and the team has indeed been making strides in that direction with their payroll slowly on the uptick to correspond with their revenue. The blame is fair, but do you want the Jays to be the New York Yankees? Do you want to spend an average of $63 for a ticket (current is $26)?

My view is that AA took a risk in not signing a veteran onto the pitching staff -- the rotation was too young, with three rookies and new rookies, and a fragile Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow. His gamble failed. A veteran might have not been a good value on paper, but might have stabilized the rotation. I can't fault AA with the initial bullpen choices. Having both Santos and Cordero imploding was not predictable -- it was just bad luck, and it took Farrell time to realize that Janssen and Oliver was up to the task of closer/setup after giving Cordero a reasonable amount of time to prove himself (and fail). Add to that Perez's season ending injury which complicated matters. The depth at relief also took time to resolve, and the Jays pretty much tried everybody on the AAA and AA farm to see if they were ready -- all kinds of relievers came up from AAA and went back down. Chavez, Beck, Carreno, Coello, Andrew Carpenter, Crawford, Pauley, Richmond -- none were ready. Finally, the Jays settled on Loup and had to trade for Lincoln, Delabar, and Lyon -- because no one from the farm was able to step up to the task in the bullpen. And on the starting rotation, Cecil and Laffey make decent #5 starters to replace Drabek and Hutchinson, but there really was no one of Morrow's calibre that was able to step up to the task.

On the hitting side, Lind failed until his return from AAA. He went on waivers and no one claimed him. No one stepped up to the task of being a star left-fielder, and just went it looked like Snider was up to stay, he was traded for the necessary relievers. There were slow starts by Rasmus, Arencibia and Bautista, and both Escobar and Johnson have be somewhat lacklustre. Only Edwin has really really impressed.

Let's face it though -- the injuries would have been insurmountable to any team. I am sure the Yankees would be on a major slump if they lost Cano (their best hitter), A-Rod, Texiera, Granderson, and Russell Martin. The injuries are the culprit here.

And it is clear that the depth of the farm is not there. Many have come up from AAA and AA to pitch and have failed, necessitating AA to go out and trade Snider and Thames. The AAA hitters who have come up have all failed to impress with the exception of Moises. Had the farm been ready with major-league ready relievers and hitters, the Jays would be all right.

So, you ask the question, did AA make bad acquisitions and overhyped the farm system, or did the players fail the Jays in their performances in the MLB? I would blame the players. The farm system has improved vastly over the years in their records and their independent ranks as prospects. But really, the end indicator of the value of a player is their performance in the majors. So, I can't blame AA for the farm acquisitions, but I will blame the players as a whole for failing to step up at the major league level.

In the end, the Jays season went wrong due to a vast and unheard of number of injuries. And the players really didn't step up before the pitchers went down in mid-June. Besides Anthopoulos acquiring a veteran pitcher in the offseason, I really can't fault him for doing anything wrong. And as long as Rogers continues ownership of the Jays, and they will for a long time, their spending will be conservative in nature. I really believe that the Jays will pull the trigger at the trade deadline if they believe they will make the post season -- the increase in ticket sales, playoff games, and ratings will recover the cost -- it makes economic sense to do so. But it makes no sense to Rogers Media to spend $150 million on player salaries when the team is only pulling in $160 million in revenue. Until that point in time, expect AA to stay the course and make spending decisions based on value, not on emotion.