Blowing it in the bullpen

Jays Bullpen really not good under pressure

I know it sounds like I am stating the obvious. The Jays have now had 10 blown saves, but if we take a look at the numbers closely, we can see exactly how the Jays are losing leads late in the game.

A save opportunity is when a pitcher enters the game in a save situation. To be clear, a save situation is when a pitcher enters the game in the 7th inning or later with a lead of three runs or less or the potential tying run is on deck, at bat, or on base.

For this purpose, I am going to include games where the Jays were tied going into the inning to show how games are lost. I am not including starting pitchers -- only relievers.

• In 8 innings late where the game was tied at the start of the inning, the Jays have let in runs in 4 of those 8 innings. 

• When the Jays start an inning up by one run: - 3 successful holds (the last successful hold was April 12 - Loup held a one run lead on April 27, only to be blown by Osuna in the 8th) - 7 blown saves - none of these in the 9th inning. 

In all situations where the Jays are tied or up by one run in the 9th, the Jays relief allows runs. All of the closer saves have been recorded with leads of 2 (3) or 3 (3) runs. Read this again, the Jays have yet to record a one-run save.

• When the Jays start an inning up by two runs: - 6 successful holds - 2 blown saves (both belonging to Loup) 

•  When the Jays start an inning up by three runs: - 10 successful holds - nothing blown 

So, the conclusion here is pretty troubling. The Jays when holding a one run lead are 30% likely to hold that lead (3 for 10). That is pretty awful.

The detailed stats on baseball reference are just as awful. The Jays save percentage at 6 for 16 is 37.5%; the league average is 72%. In save situations (not including today's game) opponents have an OPS of .875 (.300 / .366 / .509), an ERA of 6.59 and a WHIP of 1.537. The league average is 1.104.

So, despite the fact that when you look at Reliever stats overall, it comes as a complete surprise then that the Jays pen is 5th in OPS overall at .670, 5th in BA at .225, 4th in WHIP and 11th in ERA.

So, the news is that if the Jays are tied or up by one run late in games, the bullpen has given up the lead. This is why fans get nervous when they see the bullpen show up in a close or tie game and why the twitterverse erupts in rage -- the bullpen pitches terribly. In fact, the last time the Jays bullpen DID NOT give up runs in a tie situation or one run lead was Osuna back on April 12. Here is the detail of all 11 games since where the Jays bullpen entered the game tied or with a one run lead since. There are NO games where the Jays were able to hold a tie game or one run lead.

April 14 - Castro enters game in 8th inning in a 2-2 tie, gives up a crappy bunt single. Sousa steals 2nd and advances to 3rd on a throwing error. SF brings him home. Jays lose 3-2 to Tampa.

April 17 - Cecil enters the game in the 8th inning in a 5-5 tie with the Braves, gives up a home run in the 2nd pitch, allows two more runs. Jays lose 8-7.

April 18 - Castro enters the game to save in the 9th inning. Gives up a home run to the 1st batter he faces. In a bright spot, Cecil hold the Braves in the top of the 10th and Donaldson hits a walk-off home run.

April 25 - With the Jays up 2-1 on the Rays in the bottom of the 8th, with two out, Osuna gives up a single. Cecil then gives up another single. Castro comes in, gives up 2 doubles. Jays lose 4-2.

April 27 - at Boston, with the Jays up 5-4, Osuna enters the game in the bottom of the 8th, gives up two singles, a wild pitch, and a sacrifice fly to blow the save. Miguel Castro enters the 9th in a tie game and gives up two singles, a wild pitch, and another single to blow the game. RedSox win 6-5.

May 20 - in the top of the 7th, with Hutch struggling against the Angels, Steve Delabar comes in inheriting runners on 1st and 2nd with 2 out, Jays up 3-2.  He throws a wild pitch on an 0-1 count and then gives up a two run double. Jays lose 4-3.

May 26 - vs the White Sox, with the Jays up 7-6 in the top of the 8th and a hold by Osuna in the 7th, Hendriks gives up three runs to go down by 2 runs. A dramatic walk off home run by Donaldson in the bottom of the 9th vs David Roberston gives the Jays the win.

May 27 - vs the Sox again, with a 3-3 tie after a Jays comeback, Osuna gives up two. Jays lose 5-3 in 10.

May 30 - at Minnesota, tied 2-2 in the bottom of the 7th, Loup gives up a triple (likely over the head of Cotabello or Valencia). Jays lose 3-2.

May 31 - at the Twins, up 5-4 in the bottom of the 7th, Osuna out for his 2nd inning of relief. A Jose Reyes error followed by a single leads to a Tommy Hunter double scoring two. Twins win 6-5.

June 7 - home to Houston, up 3-2, Bo Schultz gives up 4. The Jays do manage to win this one again in walk off style winning 7-6 in a very lucky bottom of the 9th.

June 9 - Home to Miami, tied 2-2. Osuna comes on and gives up a homer to Stanton. Jays WIN 4-3 on another walk off HR by Edwin. Holy crap.

And now, the 2013 pitchers (no wait, it's 2014, right?)

Not one new face -- how can we hope for anything different

One of the biggest off-season failures for Alex Anthopolous was his complete inability to replace Josh Johnson with someone who would put some serenity back into the rotation, instead electing to go with the (lack of) talent already existing on the team.

While the 'pen is seemingly loaded with talent, the starting rotation seems completely iffy, at best, with big question marks around Brandon Morrow, Drew Hutchinson, and Dustin McGowan. Meanwhile, RA Dickey's knuckler will continue to be inconsistently baffling while Mark Buehrle will be his usual #3 innings eater self.

It is this lack of a starting rotation featuring no true "ace", a decent #3, the potential of greatness never realized, and two number five starters, both of which are injury prone, will do in the Jays. Its insurance policy, once again, is the relief core, who I predict will be overtaxed and overburdened by short starts combined with Gibbons propensity to pull pitchers from games way too early.

And it will cost the Jays the season, and the only person you can fault for that is Alex. If last year wasn't going to be the year for the Jays to make the playoffs, this year is. Next year is the last year of the core of the team to be together, and they are not getting younger.

As Paul Beeston promised to its season ticket holders in 2012, "In the next five years, I would expect that we would be in it two to three times," Beeston said. 

The problem is that it will take a miracle for this rotation to hold up this year.

The Starters

RA Dickey (14-13, 224.2 IP, 4.21 ERA, 1.217 WHIP in 2013) needs to have a much better year as the ace of this club. And with a knuckler, it is really difficult to know if this year will be any better than last. The Home Run was his enemy, 23 of 35 of them at Rogers Centre, and this is what truly killed him. With the WHIP being the same as they were during his 2012 year, it is the home run at home (that should be routine fly balls) that is hurting him. We will see if he makes an adjustment, but how do you adjust a knuckleball?

Mark Buehrle (12-10, 203.2 IP, 4.15 ERA, 1.315 WHIP in 2013) was consistent. There was fear that the AL East opponents would hurt him coming over from the NL, and that fear was realized. In 16 starts against the AL east, he went 2-8 with a 5.42 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. This number must improve if the Jays wish to compete. Against the rest, he went 10-2 with a 3.56 ERA and a WHIP of 1.25 -- very different numbers indeed.

Brandon Morrow (2-3, 54.1 IP, 5.63 ERA, injured in 2013) is one question mark for this team. After being sidelined last year by a entrapped radial nerve, his spring didn't look all that well either until his appearance against the Mets in Montreal. We all remember his potential with his incredible one hitter on August 8, 2010 when he threw 137 pitches. And we know this guy has incredible stuff. From last year and the year before, I also see that he is a very smart pitcher, using different pitches to get outs especially when he knows that one of his pitches isn't working. And that's what I love about Brandon Morrow. I actually think that if he remains healthy, that he will have an incredible year. Just remember 2012, when, before his left oblique strain in early June, he had pitched three shutouts in 10 starts. He is more than capable. 

Drew Hutchison (no action in 2013) is another question mark for the Jays. In 2012, before his Tommy John surgery, he featured #5 starter skills, going 5-3 with a 4.60 ERA. He has had a standout spring but he cannot possibly throw a full season as a SP. Still, I see some beginner's luck for Drew and a decent first half before his arm wears and the league figures him out. I expect that JA Happ or another AAA person will replace him around the all-star break.

Dustin McGowan (no meaningful action in 2013) is the final question mark for the Jays. The question mark is "why is he starting? With 4 innings of work in spring training and a maximum of 32 pitches pitched in an outing last year? For the Jays, it's a sentimental outing, a welcome back. Given the failures of Happ, Drabek, Romero, Stroman, and Rogers, I think this might be McGowan's ONLY start. Despite the obvious sentimental heartstrings being pulled, is it the best baseball move for the Jays? No. I predict Dusty to be relegated back to the 'pen (or to Buffalo) after two-three starts with a promotion from one of the Bison crews.

The relievers

Casey Janssen -- the closer. Janssen is not a hard thrower, but he's crafty and will continue to be the team's very capable closer. Going 34 for 36 in saves, he established himself as the closer in 2012 and will continue to shine. 

Brett Cecil, with last year's all-star appearance completed his transformation from starter to reliever is complete. This lefty dumfounds lefties while right-handers tend to get big hits against him but he is still effective. Brett will be used later in games against left-handed batters and will be particularly effective in games when right-handers are starting and the starting lineups of the opposition are filled with left handed bats.

Steve Delabar, now in his third year with the Jays, is a capable right handed reliever with very nasty stuff.

Jeremy Jeffress has a 100mph fastball and only remains on the roster because he it out of options. Expect to see him in Jays where the Jays are not competing in a game (win or lose) or as a situational hitter against a right hand threat.

Aaron Loup -- the wiley left-hander and his eclectic side-arm delivery continues to throw off hitters and with his 2.45 ERA last year, he will be an important part of a bridge between the starters and the closers and the relievers or when the team is down. 

Todd Redmond -- (long relief / spot starter) will likely be the #5 starter after the home opener. He started 14 games last year with 77 IP and a 4.32 ERA and did not have a terrible spring to demote him to long relief. The only reason I think Todd is not the #5 starter is because of the sentimentality of McGowan.

Esmil Rogers -- (long relief / spot starter) did not earn a starting role this spring with terrible performance. He will start in the bullpen and may return back to a starter role replacing either Dustin McGowan or Drew Hutchinson as a mid-season starter.

Sergio Santos is to be Casey's setup man with an impressive repertoire and the ability to strike out players.
 

The outliers

Look for JA Happ's return in mid-season. Kyle Drabek and Rickey Romero will need to have a string of excellent games in AAA to be promoted, and only in case of injuries to one or more of the starters. I expect Romero's return to be slow and will need to prove himself over a string of starts in Buffalo. 

Chad Jenkins, Neil Wagner, Deck McGuire, and Sean Nolin are all relievers who right now are on the outside looking in. With the relief core being as strong as they are, I don't see them advancing to the majors unless there's many injuries.

Blue Jays blow it in New York

Is the nightmare over yet?

With the Jays having some success against the Yankees this season, there was a little bit of hope going into this long road trip on a positive note. With the Escobar incident and the rainout on Tuesday night, things looked bleak indeed.

Wednesday afternoon: Jays 2 vs Yankees 4

Wednesday afternoon's first of the day-night double-header featured Henderson Alvarez against the returning Andy Pettitte. In the bottom of the first, the Yankees quickly opened the game with singles from Ichiro and Swisher. With none out, Robinson Cano hit a very catchablefly ball over the head of Colby Rasmus, who was apparently just waking up. Seriously, a harder sprint and Colby should have easily caught that ball. That double scored the first run. The next two players scored Swisher and Ichiro through a ground ball out and a sacrifice fly. It was 3-0 after one. On the ground ball out, Adam Lind easily could have gone home but elected not to, costing the Jays a run. Alvarez should have gotten out of the inning with no runs, but his defence let him down.

After that, Henderson was great, retiring all Yankees save for Ichiro's single in the bottom of the 3rd over the next six frames.

The Jays offence however was ineffective against Pettitte. The Jays had runners in scoring position in the 2nd and 3rd inning but were unable to cash. Gose hit into the 3rd out in the 2nd; Lind hit into a double play in the 3rd, stranding Rajai on 3rd. Gose again hit into the 3rd out in the 4th with runners on 1st and 3rd. In the top of the 7th, with none out and a lead off double by Hechavarria, Gose attempted a bunt single but hit into a bunt fly ball caught by Chavez deep into foul territory - a great catch.

Finally, the Jays' offense sputtered in the top of the 8th against David Robertson. Lawrie doubled and Lind singled. Kelly Johnston, in to pinch hit for Jeff Mathis, singed home Lawrie. Omar Visquel, who had tied Babe Ruth in hits earlier in the game, then doubled home Mike Mccoy (who was pinch run for Lind), and with one out, there were runners on 2nd and 3rd. Hechavarria struck out, Gose walked, and Rajai Davis hit a line shot pretty much right to Ichiro who made an instinctive great basket catch to end the inning. 3-2 Yankees into the bottom of the eighth.

Darren Oliver came on in the 8th, but with two out, an Ichiro ground rule double and a Swisher single scored an insurance run for the Yankees. That was Swisher's first hit against Oliver in 19 plate appearances.

Soriano wrapped the game for the Yankees with his 41th save.

For the game, every Jay except for Mathis managed to get on base, but the game was about not able to cash in runs, going 3-13 with RISP and leaving 11 on base. Ichiro went 3-4 and scored the 1st and 4th run of the game and made key defensive plays. Rasmus let a ball get over his head, and Lind could have saved a run and elected not too. Gose was up three times and failed to cash in runners, and that is the short story of this game.

Wednesday night: Jays 1 at Yankees 2

This evening's game featured a struggling Ricky Romero against rookie reliever-turned starter David Phelps in his 11th start of his career.

Ricky looked shaky in the 1st, and the Jays looked like they would be in for a long night (turns out that would be the next game). Jeter singled and Swisher walked, but Cano flied out and A-Rod hit into a double play.

The Jays managed to score their only run in the second as Arencibia and Johnston walked. Hechavarria singled home Arencibia.

The bottom of the second was no better for Romero, as he walked Nix and McGehee. Ichiro singled, but Rasmus pegged Jason Nix coming home on a gorgeous and perfect throw straight to Arencibia, who applied the tag just before Nix' hand touched the plate to save a run and record an out. Chris Stewart, however, hit a ground rule double deep into the corner in left to tie.

Romero struggled through the next four frames, but the Yankees were never able to cash in anyone. Even though Romero allowed seven hits and walked five over 6 innings (WHIP = 2), he left the game in a 1-1 tie going into the 7th.

The Jays offense did nothing to help as the rookie pitched a 3 hit gem through 2 outs in the 7th. The Jays managed to load the bases in the top of the 7th against him through a single, walk, and an error, but Boone Logan came on to strike out Sierra to end the inning. Why Farrell didn't elect to pinch hit for a struggling Sierra I'm not sure.

Delabar ended up taking the loss for the Jays with an opening walk to Granderson, a sac bunt, and a single by Ichiro (who went 7-8 in the double header) to take a 2-1 lead. Soriano came on again to close it out for his 42nd save.

Defensively, Lawrie was very much focused as was the rest of the team, but offensively, they just couldn't get it off the ground, only getting three games the entire game versus a pitcher who just isn't that good.

Thursday: Jays 7, Yankees 10

This game was not nearly as dramatic as it was over early for the Jays thanks to Aaron Laffey and Brad Lincoln.

The Jays opened the scoring in the top of the 2nd with a double-double combination from Lind and Johnson. They added to the scoring with a bases loaded hit-by-pitch as Hughes plunked Sierra in the back. It was 2-0 Jays by the middle of the 3rd. 

But Ichiro opened the scoring in the bottom of the third with a fast ball left over the plate for Ichiro to hit out of the park. 

By the bottom of the fourth, Laffey hit his mental wall. The inning opened with a 10 pitch Russell Martin walk. Martin stole second, and a routine ground ball to Johnson by Granderson was bobbled, allowing him to reach. McGehee then walked to load the bases, and Ichiro did it again, doubling home two. That ended the day for Laffey. On came Brad Lincoln, who walked Nix to load the bases. Jeter singled to keep the bases loaded and score another run. Nick Swisher then belted a grand slam to right field to finish a seven run 4th inning and end much hope for the Jays.

Sierra hit a two run homer in the top of the 5th to score a walked Adam Lind to bring the Jays within 4. However, Brett Cecil let in two more runs in the bottom of the 5th, thanks to a Granderson double, Nix double, and Jeter single. It was 10-4 after 5.

The Jays tried to come back in the 8th, with a Johnson home run, an Arencibia single, a Gose double, an infield single by Lawrie (scoring Arencibia), and a Mike McCoy fielder's choice (to score Gose). David Robertson struck out the side in the 9th to end the game.

Stick a fork in it, the Jays are done

Truly, it's difficult to watch the Jays close out the season. The players with nothing left to prove are doing just that -- proving nothing. They are out of it. Colby Rasmus continues to struggle badly, batting just above .200 for September, but he will be the starting CF next year. Brett Lawrie has hit .200 since his return, but he will be the starting 3B. JP Arencibia is 2 for 29 since his return. Moises is hitting .162 in September -- he knows there's no room for him. Yunel is hitting .233 and Rajai is hitting .207 for September. Kelly Johnston is batting sub .200 for September. The only 3 bright stars on the team are Hechavarria, Encarnacion, and Gose. Encarnacion just continues to go out day after day and do his job. And Adam Lind continues to be a shade above mediocre.

And there are really no excuses this time. Back in August, the media claimed that with players missing, you could just pitch around everyone. But the weaklings in the lineups are still the regulars, who seemed to have checked out for the year. It's mental mistakes everywhere that are costing the Jays games -- from Moises' miscues on sunny days to Rajai and Colby's mental errors in not reading fly balls to Escobar's antics to not making plays to the correct bases, this team seems to have just fallen apart.

And why not? The season was as much a letdown for the players as it was for the fans. Freak injuries to the starters, then the relievers, then the starting lineup guaranteed the end of any hope for making the playoffs. Add to that the tradeaway of Lunchbox and the failure for Alex to pick up any piece that would help the Jays in their efforts, and what you have is a broken down team with no leadership and no hope. Farrell is not a veteran manager, and Alex Anthopoulos is not a veteran General Manager.

Ricky Romero was supposed to be the leader of the pitching rotation but all he has done is struggle. Morrow's return added some stability to the rotation. The loss of Bautista for the season certainly added a major  blow to the team. Brett Lawrie's loss made people realize that he is not the godsend to this team, and that he has a great deal of growing up to do. Rogers trotted him out at the beginning of the year as the team's brash, young, spokesperson, but as the year wore down, that role was taken away. Brett Lawrie is gifted, but he is far too aggressive, whether it's stealing bases unneccessarily, throwing helmets at umpires, or diving into camera bays. Restraint is required, young Jedi.

And the clubhouse antics of Yunel revealed the ugly and homophobic side to baseball and to the general unrest in the clubhouse. The clubhouse isn't nearly as cohesive as advertised. People in the dugout knew exactly what Yunel painted, and they did and said nothing except let him go out there and be the fool. A cohesive dugout would not have let that happen.

At the end of the year, there will be more questions than answers. Fans had hoped that Adam Lind and Kelly Johnston would have good years, but both are up for replacement. I really can't see Adam Lind staying on the Jays, as he is prone to health problems and has definite hitting issues. Yunel's existence on the team is questionable especially with an well-auditioning Hechavarria. A gaping hole is in leftfield with no one really stepping up to fill it, forcing Anthopoulos to deal in the off-season. 

It just seems like there are many more holes than there was at the beginning of the season to be resolved. At the beginning of the year, people would have been quite happy to say that 2013 would look like Escobar - Lawrie - Bautista - Edwin - Lind - Johnston - Rasmus - Lawrie - Arencibia -  Snider, and that indeed would be a formidable lineup if everyone was hitting as good as advertised. But for next year, we might see Hechavarria at short, a new 1B or DH in town, and definitely a new 2B and LF. Rajai and Jeff Mathis will be on the bench. Mike McCoy probably right now is slated to be the utility infielder, and the Jays will probably go out and acquire an inexpensive veteran bench player as they did in Omar Visquel. AA has a lot of shopping to do in the off-season, and the Jays' management knows that the fans are expecting a contender next year.

September 3: Orioles 4, Jays 0

Blue Jays bats silent. Happ Ks 9 over 5 innings, but not even close

JA Happ looked pretty impressive in his outing against the Orioles today, for the first four innings. 

Unfortunately, a miss by Moises Sierra in right field led to the Oriole's first run. Moises lost a fly ball hit down the line to right. It was a great and long run to try to catch it, but he attempted to dive for the ball that he didn't need to and just missed it. His defense now I would rank in the questionable category, with a dive at a fly ball a few days back, a miss yesterday, and a miss today.

Happ threw 56 pitches through four innings, walking 2 and striking out 6, to keep is strikeout rate well above one per inning. 

The fifth inning was not good for Happ at all, as the Orioles pummeled Happ with a solid single by Andino, a RBI double by Nick Markakis, another RBI double by J J Hardy pass a diving Hechavarria, and an Adam Jones single, all with none out. Then, Happ struck out the side but threw 36 pitches in the inning. 3-0 Orioles half-way through the game.

Meanwhile, Joe Saunders powered his way through the Jays lineup, retiring the first 17 batters in a row, beating his best start of the season when he pitched against the Marlins in April (while pitching for the Diamondbacks) when he retired 13 in a row.

Happ got pulled in the top of the sixth when McLouth hit a double to the wall in right-centre with none out. Lincoln saved the inning with a walk, sacrifice bunt, intentional walk, and double play to preserve the three run deficit.

Hechavarria opened the hitting for the Jays in the bottom of the sixth with two out with a solid single up the middle. Davis then walked, but Rasmus struck out to end the sixth.

Delabar pitched a good 7th, only walking one. 

Encarnacion opened the 7th inning with a walk and Adam Lind followed with a base hit. Escobar hit a fielder's choice (Encarnacion tagged out on the way to third), and Kelly Johnson hit a single to load the bases. That ended Saunders' afternoon. On came Luis Ayala to pitch to Moises Sierra, who went 3-0 before striking out on three pitches. Jeff Mathis then hit a high popper to Jones to end the inning.

The Orioles are 58-0 when leading after 7 and explains why they are in the wild-card spot.

Brett Cecil, joining the Jays as part of the September expansion, came on in the eighth, hit a batter, got a popup, and walked the next batter, got another out, then Hardy hit a single to center to score McLouth from 2nd. 4-0 Orioles mid-eighth.

Pedro Strop (1.86 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), setup man for the Orioles, then had a clean 1-2-3 in the 8th for his 24th hold.

Cecil got himself in trouble again in the 9th, loading the bases before getting a deep fly ball to Rasmus to end the inning.

Jim Johnson then came on with the 4-0 lead to do some work in a non-save situation and preserve the shutout.

So, overall, a terrible outing for the Jays offense, who managed only three hits all afternoon. It's the 8th game since July 29 that the Jays have got 4 hits or less but the first time since July 25 that they've been shut out.