Sunday, August 19, 2012

The Jays last 20: 5-15. Why the slide?

It's not just the injuries -- everyone is underperforming

When the Jays left for Seattle at the end of July, the team was still one game over .500 despite Jose Bautista's injury and the decimation of their starting rotation over one week. The reason that the Jays were able to stay afloat from the starting rotation injuries until the end of July was amazing run production, at 5.38 / game over 37 games from June 16 to July 29, with a .270 / .335 / .475 line for an OPS of .811. When you bat that well, you are going to win games, and indeed the Jays needed on average 6 runs or more to win games during that time, because the starters (including Romero's meltdowns) and the bullpen just were not good at all.

But over the last twenty, beginning from the time that many team members gathered at Travis Snider's home in Mill Valley, Washington on what turned out to be a farewell barbecue, the team has gone 5 and 15. Perhaps Travis' steaks had some formula in it to make the Jays' bats useless, because this is exactly what has happened to most of the Jays bats, including the regulars.
 

When you look at the individual efforts of the Blue Jays in the last 20 games against Seattle, Oakland, Tampa, the Yankees, the White Sox, and the Rangers, you see a very disappointing effort that goes beyond injuries.

The team since July 29: 144 for 681 with 29 2B, 1 3B, 16 HR -- .211 / .264 / .327 for an OPS of .591

Average stats of teams pitching against (Tampa, Oakland, Seattle, Yankees, White Sox): .246 / .308 / .394 for an OPS of .702.

Team Leaders:

Moises Sierra*: 14 for 44 with 1 2B, 2HR -- .318 / .347 / .477 for an OPS of .824
Enwin Encarnacion: 17 for 70, 2 doubles, 3 HR -- .242 / .349 / .400 for an OPS of .749
David Cooper: 19 for 70, 6 2B, 2HR -- .275 / .286 / .449 for an OPS of .735

Underperformers:

Rajai Davis: 20 for 80 with 8 2B, 1 HR, plus 10 SB -- .250 / .298 / .387 for an OPS of .685.
Kelly Johnson: 11 for 64 with 4 2B, 3 HR -- .172 / .254 / .375. for an OPS .629
Anthony Gose*: 10 for 48, 2 2B, 1 3B (8 SB) -- .208 / .296 / .292 for an OPS of .588
Colby Rasmus: 11 for 56, 1 2B, 2 HR -- .196 / .224 / .321 for an OPS of .545
Mike McCoy: 2 for 16 -- .125 / .176 / .294 for an OPS of .470
Yunel Escobar: 14 for 72 with 1 2B -- .194 / .256 / .208 for an OPS of .464

Jeff Mathis: 10 for 60, 1 2B, 2 HR -- .167 / .172 / .283 for an OPS of .455
Adeiny Hechavarria*: 5 for 30 with 2 2B -- .167 / .218 / .233 for an OPS of .451
Omar Visquel: 5 for 24 -- .208 / .208 / .208 for an OPS of .416
Brett Lawrie: 3 for 18 with 1 2B -- .167 / .167 / .222 for an OPS of .389
Yan Gomes*: 2 for 27 -- .074 / .138 / .074 for an OPS of .212

Missing is Travis' 1 for 3 on his last night as a Jay and the Aaron Loup AB in the 15 inning affair against Oakland.

The team for sure ran into some tough pitching but they didn't run into David Price, CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, or Chris Sale.

So, in as much as the media wants to blame the injuries for their woes, one needs to look at the performances of Colby Rasmus, Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, and Jeff Mathis to see why the team is lacking in production. Rajai Davis, when he gets on the bases, does well. But even Edwin is seeing a big slump in production over the last 20 games. Only three players are outperforming the league average.

It's expected to see the rookies underperform. But when your veterans are also underperforming, it is easy to see why the Jays are 5-15 since they went to Seattle. There are five games that the Blue Jays should have won with a performing and healthy team: The 2-1 loss to Texas on August 18; the 3-2 loss to the White Sox on August 14; the 3-2 loss to Tampa on August 8, the 5-3 loss to Seattle on August 1st, and the 4-1 loss to Oakland on July 30.

So, when the media challenges the fans and blames the injuries, here's the evidence to show you that the veterans left on the team have been terrible, too.

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