New season, same team?

Disappointment will be less as our expectations are much lower

The Toronto Blue Jays open their season tomorrow at Tampa before the Yankees come to town this weekend. I've been away for five months and it's great that baseball is back. I managed to listen to and watch some of the spring training games looking for something different. I watched the off-season moves, hoping that Alex Anthopolous and Rogers would come up with some scratch to sign a big name pitcher for 2014. 

So, what I see is the same players (save Navarro, thank God) on the same team using the same techniques to win and lose games. 

The exception this year is that our expectations were so high this year, while this year I think the fan base will be happy with anything over .500. Certainly, Rogers Media has toned down the rhetoric for this year, and that's a good thing. I think the fan base at Rogers Centre will remain steady, making no gains on 2013, while the fan base around the country will remain tied to the Blue Jays' win-loss record, with some extra interest as it looks like only one Canadian team will make the NHL playoffs.

Let's take a look at this year's roster and point out some of the questionable roster moves for opening day. This article will focus on the hitters, while the next focuses on the pitching.

Overall, this team should be hitting better than they did last year, which was absolutely abysmal. Last year featured some terrible offensive outages due to really poor seasons by Maicer, JP, and Bonifacio, bad streaks by Jose, Colby, Lind, and Lawrie compounded by injuries by most everyone on the offence, leaving them with inferior replacements like Kawasaki, Thole/Blanco, Gose, and Pillar. 

Once again, the key to this year's performance offensively will be consistency and injury avoidance. While the addition of Navarro might help the offensive performance as will a return of Melky to his former self, the team is now lacking formidable speed with the departures of Emilio (who could never get on base anyway) and Rajai Davis (a true weapon), and Anthony Gose sitting in AAA. This means that the team must attempt to move runners forward by ways of the bat. And with a three man bench and no one on the bench particularly good, late game situational hitting will be lacking.

This leads me to believe that while the numbers overall will be better, run production will suffer.

Here's my player by player analysis.

C - Dioner Navarro with a .300 / .465 / .492 slash last year and an all star 2008 (with Tampa) under his belt, this guy brings veteran experience behind the plate, which is what the pitching staff and John Gibbons needs defensively. Offensively, he comes with a caveat, in that there were years where he suffered at the plate. For example, after his all-star year with the Rays where he hit .295, he hit just .218 in the following year. So, it is unclear which Dioner we are going to get this year. Still, it's a huge improvement over the train wreck which was JP Arencibia last year. He seemed to have some power last year too, hitting 13 homers in 266 plate appearance. In Rogers Centre, playing full-time, he might have the potential to hit 20 dingers. I also like the fact that he came from Tampa, a Blue Jays rival, with some knowledge of the pitching system there.

C - Josh Thole is here to catch RA Dickey, and will figure into games only if he manages to crack .200. He was quite the batting disappointment last year, but I think part of that was the fact that he was only in games where the opposing pitcher was the team's ace (in that RA is the Blue Jays ace, and aces tend to play each other).

I am surprised that the Jays chose Thole over Kratz as the backup catcher. In the end, I think the Jays traded offense for the ability to catch and hopes that Thole can have a little bit of offense one game of five. I think it's a very tall order to push Thole into action one day out of five, and I would like to see the Jays play him in two of five games, especially if his offense shows a bit of spark.

1B/DH - Adam Lind has had an excellent spring, with Buck quoting that he was looking like the Lind of 2009. Well with the goatee, he definitely looks like the Dr. Hyde version of Lind in 2013. The issue with Lind always is his back health and his ability to stay consistent. If he can remain warm for 2014 and Gibbons uses him in every day situations (against LHP and RHP) and gives him breaks so that he can rest (using him as DH, sitting him from time to time), Lind can relive his glory from 2009.

1B/DH - Edwin Encarnacion, for a Jay, is Mr. Consistency. From oblivion three years ago when the Jays let him go to Oakland (only to be reclaimed), the former "E5" has turned into a decent first baseman sporting a .275 / .364 / .517 line over the past three years with not much in the way of injuries.

At issue here are the away National league games (against Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati) where both Edwin and Adam can't play.

2B - Ryan Goins -- The Blue Jays draftee of 2009 is the starting 2B, sporting a paltry .177 batting average over spring training. Last year, in his MLB debut, he hit .252 / .264 / .345 over 121 plate appearances, with 2 walks and 28 strikeouts. He is supposed to be excellent defensively.

I seriously question the decision of putting in Goins over Kawasaki. Now, one could point out Muni's slash last year (.229 / .326 / .308) as being worse than Goins, but that OBP is meaningful. Muni drew a heck of alot more of Pitches per Plate Appearance than pretty much anyone else in the majors. He is extremely popular with the fan base, and he is defensively capable all around the infield. One could argue that this year represents that natural progression for Goins, and that it's his time to prove himself at the MLB level. But the fan base loves Muni. He is JAPANESE!!!

The good news is that if Ryan doesn't prove himself, Muni will be on that bus from Buffalo.

SS - Jose Reyes, while defensively average, Jose is a necessary and vital piece of the Jays offense this year. Our hope is that his hamstring doesn't have any issue. His injury last year was not related to his hamstring. I hope that he improves on his already excellent .296/.353/.427 line from last year.

3B - Brett Lawrie -- We were hoping collectively that LAST year would have been the year for Brett, and looking that the downward trend year over year, we find that we have been making excuses for this man's offensive performance (at .254/.315/.397) last year. He had a terrible spring, got injured, tried 2B (stupid idea), and finally broke out after the all star break, where he had a string of 42 games hitting .324 / .384 / .507 before having a meh September. Defensively, he's a gem. If he stays healthy, it will be HIS year to show MLB his star quality. He becomes arbitration eligible next year, and the Jays are going to have to show him the money if he has a great year, which we all hopes he has. He seems to have matured and slowed down his waggle at home plate and seems to have more control.

UF - Maicer Izturis is the team's utility infielder and after a crappy year (his worst year offensively in MLB), we are all hoping that he does better. When he had regular play with Brett's injury, he managed to hit .309 / .351 / .397 over 150 plate appearance, which was pretty good. But he started off terribly and ended the season terribly as well, batting just .167 for the rest of the season over 103 plate appearances. Defensively, he is okay. 

LF - Melky Cabrera, with an undiagnosed tumour in his back and an absolute defensive liability in LF last year, the man still managed to hit .279 last year with no power. This year, he looks absolutely white hot, hitting .400 in spring training. We can only hope that Melky is the Melky of 2011 this year. We shall see if the turf in LF doesn't hurt him.

CF - Colby Rasmus was hot and cold last year, pretty much like the rest of the club, and with a strikeout rate near 30% and a propensity to look foolish against LHP, he can be a frustrating player to watch. Still, overall, he had an excellent year in 2013, batting .276 / .338 / .501. He demonstrates power. Defensively, he has moments where he is excellent, and moments of complete lapses. I'm looking forward to seeing him perform this year, and hopes that he has a consistently good year with a measure of better plate discipline.

RF - Jose Bautista has had an excellent spring, and that wrist and his violent swing hopefully will not lead to injury as it has over the last couple of years. Still, a HR every 15 or so plate appearances is not a bad thing, and his arm and defence is most helpful.

OF - Moises Sierra had an excellent 2013 in limited action as Jose's replacement last September and represents a capable 4th OF for the Jays and represents the good choice versus Gose and Pillar.

The Outsiders: Anthony Gose, Kevin Pillar, Muni Kawasaki and Kratz are the four outsiders looking in. I see all four of them in Jays uniforms at some point this year.

Next: the Pitchers.

Major Suckage Continue as Jays just not into it

Jays make blunders, hitting continues to suffer

When you look back on the scoresheet, you wonder how the Jays continue to lose close games and wonder how the continuous pressure is feeling on this organization.

As April draws to a close, the Jays stand to open the season with anywhere between 9 and 12 wins and 18 and 15 losses -- A lousy start. In my previous article, I compared the Jays with the 2001 Oakland As who started the season 8-18 to end the season at 102-60.

But when I look at this Blue Jays team, the fundamentals are just not there yet.

Here are what I think are two major problems on the team:

Something is terribly wrong with the hitting

Maicer Izturis and Bonifacio need to have their career-advertised .320+ OBP to be effective, and so far, they've fallen fall short of that. In fact BOTH players are having their career worst months in MLB.

Bonifacio has a paltry .219 OBP for April, his worst month even in the majors except for the first month that he played back in 2008. Certainly, he can do better, and yes, he should be given the opportunity to be better by putting him in the situations he should be playing in: in CF or at 2B against LHP and used later in the game for situtaional ball, as he was today.

Izturis is also having his worst month ever with a .197 OBP.

Brett Lawrie is slowly coming around, and the excuse that he didn't have any spring training holds. There is no evidence that suggests that he is not improving. His OBP is heading in the right direction and his at bats look better.

Rajai Davis is playing to expectations, but positionally, there's no room on the field for him unless you sit Colby, It makes sense to sit Colby and Adam Lind against LHP. In that case, put Rajai in centre and Bonifacio at 2B, or alternatively put Bonifacio in CF, Rajai in LF, and DH Cabrera. But with the way that Bonifacio and Izturis are hitting, you can only afford to put one of them in the lineup and hope that they come around. That forces you to keep Davis in the lineup but with the outfielders all doing very well against RHP, that's not possible to do. A conumdrum for sure, and not one of the good kind.

Melky Cabrera, I believe is also going to be okay. With an OBP of .310 (so far) and a 50+ game suspension last year and his deliberate exlusion from the playoffs, he is only slowly getting back to form. He should be fine.

Edwin is going to be fine, and his bombs in Baltimore and New York show that he's found his swing again.

JP Arencibia has switched into a home run hitter. 40% of his at bats end in strikeouts, compared to his 30% average from the last two years. Given that he's at the top of the leaderboard in home runs, this isn't a bad thing. There is nothing wrong with his .267 BA and playing in 4 of every 5 games is good for him.

Then there's Jose Bautista. Half of his 12 hits have been home runs, and he has yet to hit more than once in a game. He has got to come around and try to get hits instead of bombs especially against tough pitching. He has been unlucky too especially with his ground balls (his BABIP is sub .200). He must improve for this team to get better.

Adam Lind has seemed to develop plate discipline, and hopefully the birth of his second child doesn't destroy that high OBP (close to .400). If he can have a year anything north of his last three years, it will be good.

Kawasaki is doing way more than expected. A replacement level player at best, he's doing very well... too well. As his scouting gets better, expect him to start to do worse. 

And finally, Colby Rasmus. He too is turning into a DH with a strikeout rate at close to 50%. He needs plate discipline but I think it's actually coming along. Does Colby belong at the #2 spot?

Still, for this team, it's a matter of timely hitting. The lineup, as it stands, just isn't stringing hits together. Bautista is usually the 3rd out, leaving bases empty for Edwin. Brett Lawrie and Izturis/Bonifacio need to improve. Average pitchers are looking like aces in front of the Jays, and while there are glimmers of hope and a few comebacks, this team on any given night just looks awful at the plate with the exception of the home run.

I think Gibby is learning what is working and what is not and adjusting his lineup accordingly. He's stuck with putting Maicer or Bonifacio in every game and trotting Kawasaki out there every day to play short. But really, the lineup should be pretty much the same as advertised with a "no-panic" lineup. I don't like the fact that he is switching the lineup everyday.

Which brings me to my second point: Infield defence

The Jays middle infield, frankly, just sucks, and that was before Jose Reyes was struck with injury. Now it really sucks, and Brett Lawrie is not much better (yet), though much faster.

With messed up throws and errors from Lawrie, Bonifacio, Izturis, and Kawasaki, and missed plays because of lack of speed, the infield has cost the Jays several games, as has the poor play of Arencibia. These errors force the pitchers to throw more pressure under higher pressure and cause the team to play from behind. This in turn puts pressure on the team to bat to play catch up and results in higher strike out rates as the players get away from their own ideal fundamentals.

I do like Lawrie's glove, but his decision making to throw the ball results in costly errors. He needs to eat the ball or make better throwing decisions by planting his feet and making accurate throws to first.

And while Kawasaki started out strong, his play at shortstop has now been questionable. It seemed like since he commited his game-losing error against Baltimre, his defense has been suffering.

And both Maicer and Bonifacio's 2B play have been poor. Tonight loss was caused by many, many blunders: 5 walks given up by Laffey, Rajai getting caught stealing 3rd for the third out, the passed ball by Arencibia, the non-play by Kawasaki, the missed play by Lawrie, and the blundered double play by Izturis. The Jays need to play clean defense so that their pitcher can get out of innings more quickly.

I pointed out when Escobar and Johnston were traded that the defense would suffer, and it has greatly. 

What to do

There is really no valid explanation as to why both Izturis and Bonifacio are doing so poorly at the same time, and there is really no valid explanation as to why Lind, Bautista, Rasmus, and Encarnacion had very slow starts to the year.

So you look at the sum of the whole. Each of the players, true, are to blame for their own individual performances, but you have to wonder what effect does the coaching staff have on their players. How is the player's individual relationship with the management affecting their own performance, and collectively, can the relationships between the managers and players affect performance? I think so.

John Gibbons appears to be in panic mode. With the daily switchup of the lineups and his expermentation with the player of the moment being allowed to bat second, I wonder if he's in over his head.

But both the fans and the team need to calm down. Expectations are high, but it's okay if the Jays don't make the playoffs this year. With the Maple Leafs about to start a playoff run, the media and fans will be looking to the ice instead of the field for a while. The pitching staff will be around for another year. Jose Reyes will come back healthy.

But there are a few things they can do:

(1) Goodbye Blanco, hello Thole. Thole is a major league catcher and is outperforming in AAA. It's time to bring him to the show.

(2) Time to trade Colby Rasmus and Bonifacio for a reliable 2B and bring up Gose or Sierra, or to DFA Izturis or Bonifacio and give Jim Negrych a chance. Something defensively has to change.

(3) Take a deep look at the management staff and their style. Don't panic. Keep the lineup the same against RHP and LHP.

(4) Help the players execute the game. Focus. Concentrate. Practice.

What to do about them Boo Jays?

It's been quite disappointing to watch the 7-11 Blue Jays muddle through the very young season, and the Rogers apologists think that there's no reason to worry, but there is.

For the Jays to make the playoffs they will need to go at least 86-58 to reach 93 wins, and even that might not be enough. That's a .600 record. Are the Jays  on the field today capable of playing .600 ball. Absolutely. But will they? Absolutely not.

The good

There are bright spots on this team, to be sure. We know that the starting rotation are CAPABLE of great starts, and we've seen the bright spots from Dickey, Johnson, and Morrow. We know that Mark Buehrle is a 4 ERA pitcher in the AL, and that means we should expect at least 1/2 of his starts to be quality ones. And JA Happ is the #5 starter and anything under a 5 ERA is good for him.

We know that JP Arencibia and Jose Bautista are performing to expectations, each putting bombs out of the park. We also see patches of sunshine from Adam Lind and Edwin and hopefully that will become consistent as the season wears on. We know that Adam is streaky and we'll need to see how that plays out over the season.

A welcome suprpise is the bullpen. Janssen, Delebar, Loup, Rogers, Cecil, and Santos are performing better than expected. Darren Oliver has been shaky, but the bullpen as a whole has been very good, especially given the early season pressure.

The ugly

But we've seen blowouts from each of the pitchers too. It's easy to point at the defense tell them to do their job, and indeed, defence is lacking when Jose is not playing right field and with a hole at 2B. But it's the pitcher's job to make sure they don't get on base. I attribute 4 of 11 losses to awful starts. Dickey's initial outing was bad because Arencibia clearly couldn't catch the knuckleball in front of 50,000 people.

The other losses were due to lack of hitting. This team should be hitting much better than they are. You can excuse the team for giving up in the blowouts, absolutely. But when you're consistently not outputting runs, you are not going to win games, and you can't always stick it into your bullpen's or defense's hands to be perfect in order to hold a tie game or a slim lead all of the time because you can't score. The bullpen and defence are the weaker parts of this team, especially at 2B (all the time) and when Bautista's not playing RF. 


Edwin started the season with a drought and has warmed up, as has Adam Lind. Rasmus, who, when he makes contact with the ball, REALLY makes contact and is batting like a DH with tons of strike outs. The problem is that Jose Bautista and JP Arencibia have the same hitting style, meaning a low OBP and the inability to string together hits to score plenty of runs.

And when the rest of the team isn't hitting around you, the home runs are not meaningful. Brett Lawrie (who inexplicitly bat 6th when just getting back into MLB action) will get better.

But there are other players on the team who are underperforming. Melky's start has been bad as well with a complete outage of power for the #2 spot in the lineup.
With Reyes and Bautista out of the line up for a time, there was certainly weakness in the line up that left Cabrera unprotected, meaning that they could really focus on him, because the threats around him were fairly weak.
Emilio Bonifacio needs to step up his game: a .232 OBP is unacceptable for a player who has above .300 in OBP for the last five seasons. His fielding has been atricious, especially at 2B. The same message goes to Maicer, with his .200 OBP so far. His career OBP has been above .320 for each of the last six seasons. Something is wrong here. Rajai's been good, and he deserves every day action because he's just as fast as Bonifacio, gets on base more, and is not a defensive liability. The problem with Rajai of course is that he's weak against RHP.

Blame the Coaching Staff?

So who do you blame? It's easy to say it's the coaching staff and in particular the change out of Mottola for Murphy. Maybe so. Sportsnet staff are quick to point out how a coach has been helping out a player. If that is the case, then why is the team suffering as a whole?

Certainly you can blame managerial staff for poor decisions. That includes putting the wrong people in the lineup, making poor choices for pitching changes, and being too aggressive or not aggressive enough on the baselines. For example, Brett Lawrie is finally hitting #8 in the lineup today. Why would you throw him in the six spot when he has NO MLB experience this year in hitting? 

But players who are performing well just need maintenance when it comes to coaching, and if you're a good player, you will continue to be good. If you're performing poorly, you're going to need help from the coaching staff, and we'll see what comes of it. Can you blame the coaching staff? I don't know.

Things to change

Don't think about changing the starting rotation or the bullpen. They are fine. Of course the starting line up needs to be tweaked to reflect individual performances.

Something needs to change on this team. Both Maicer and Emilio HAVE to get better. We know Brett Lawrie WILL get better.

There are too many people on the team GEARED to swing for the fences. And of course, the lead off spot is dead because Jose Reyes is out until probably the end of June at the earliest. Kawasaki is not going to always have a .375 OBP -- he is far outperforming his position and will have to come down to earth. That means that one of Rajai or Emilio will have to step up and we know that Rajai will not be the one against RHP.

Perhaps now is the time to pull the plug on Colby, trade him with Bonifacio, and get a strong 2B in return. Bring in Anthony Gose, who is more of a contact hitter and can run. And get prepared to replace Kawasaki at SS as well as he is just due to slide.

Series recap: Jays wake up in Baltimore

September 24-26, 2012

After losing six in a row in the Bronx and at the Trop, the remaining Jays fans who have now turned their eyes elsewhere (not hockey) were looking for a turnaround in Baltimore. And it looks like they got one - a small one, mind you, as they went 2-2 in the four game set.

 

In all, the Jays come back off the road going 2-8, quite disappointing, but frankly, in a best case scenario, with the teams that they were playing and the state of the roster, 4-6 might have been the best to hope for.

On the pitching front, Laffey's effort was by far the highlight of the series. Alvarez, Romero, and Villanueva were not good. The bullpen however was excellent with the exception of Wednesday night's game when Farrell trotted out Carreno, Beck, and Carpenter down by 4, 6, and 8 runs. Janssen also looked rusty in his efforts but managed to get out relatively unscathed.

On the hitting front, Arencibia, Lind, Edwin, and Hechavarria were highlights, while Colby and Lawrie were disappointments.

• JP went 7 for 9 with two walks in the series, after going 2 for 37 with two walks since his injuries. Perhaps he's turned the corner, a great sign. Remember that in the 18 games before his injury, he hit .319 / .349 / .700 (with six home runs) and was really coming together. In Baltimore, he hit a  home run and a double.
• Adam Lind went 6 for 9 in the series (all singles). Since September 11, Adam's hitting 17-51 (.333) with 4 doubles, 2 triples, and a home run for an OPS of .906.  If Lind can end the season on this positive note, it will be difficult to dismiss him as the opening day 1B or DH especially against RHP and the value of his contract.  
• Edwin went 5-16 with two home runs. Edwin, in his last 11 games is batting 12-37 with 4 home runs and 8 walks (OPS 1.106).  
• Hechavarria went 3 for 8 and is running a 9 game hitting streak, batting 10 for 29 with 2 doubles and a home run in that stretch (OPS .889). Since August 23rd, Adieny is hitting (.303 / .329 / .434) over 81 plate appearances and is making the argument to be in the starting lineup next year.

On the awful side, Colby Rasmus went 1 for 12 (two walks) while Brett Lawrie went 2 for 16 (3 walks). Colby's batting .111 in his last 11 games played; Lawrie is batting .170. When your 1-2 in the order has a .255 and .200 OBP respectively, it's hard for Edwin to drive in runs. Bautista had the same problem at the start of the season when Escobar and Johnson headed up the lineup.

 

Monday afternoon: Jays 1 at Orioles 4

 

The Jays continued their offensive drought Monday afternoon, while Henderson Alvarez gave up four runs over 5 2/3rds inning in a step back after three good outings.

Henderson's enemy again was the home run. In the bottom of the fourth, a lead off walk to Chris Davis was followed up by an Adam Jones home run. Alvarez gave up an another home run to Flaherty to open the bottom of the fifth, and Alvarez really started to come undone in the bottom of the sixth, as the Orioles loaded the bases (Jones single, Wieters double, Thome intentional walk) with none out. Mark Reynolds then hit into a double play, scoring Adam Jones. Cecil then came on to finish the frame, and Frasor and Beck finished off the game without any damage being done.

Henderson's line was 5.2 innings pitched. Over 86 pitches, he walked 3, struck out 6, and gave up 2 home runs. The Jays defence was fine that afternoon with no glaring problems or issues.

 

On the offensive side, the Jays threatened (as usual) a few times in the game before breaking through in the eighth inning with two outs. Edwin singled, Lind singled, and Rajai Davis doubled home Edwin. Darren O'Day came on to strike out Kelly Johnson (good guess) to end the threat. Jim Johnson breezed through the last frame to record his 48th (!) save.

 

The rookie Steve Johnson let in 3 hits over five innings of work and looked great, now going 21 scoreless innings over a couple of starts and relief appearances. And besides Tommy Hunter, the rest of the Orioles pitching staff pitched with their usual efficiency.

 

For the Jays hitting, Colby reached twice on walks, and Adam Lind hit twice. Jeff Mathis went 0-2 as did Yunel. Anthony Gose went 0-4.

 

Monday night: Jays 9 at Orioles 4.

An excellent offensive effort by the Jays (Arencibia's 5 RBIs), and a key defensive play by Gose resulted in a Jays win.

The night game featured the struggling Ricky Romero vs Wei-Yin Chen. In this match, the Jays needed some excellent defensive play to win this game. Ricky was truly lucky to end up with the win.

Edwin started off the scoring in the top of the first with a two run home run following a Brett Lawrie walk. Ricky's bottom of the first looked a little shaky with a opening walk.

Chen continued to be shaky in the 2nd. Sierra singled and Visquel doubled to open the inning. JP Arencibia hit a long fly ball to right to advance Visquel and score Sierra. Gose singled to left to score Visquel and it was 4-0 going into the bottom of the 2nd.

But in the bottom of the 2nd, 8 hitters for Baltimore came to the plate as Romero's pitching woes continued. Reynolds singled, then Machado hit a seeing eye single between 3rd and short. Chavez advanced the runners to 2nd and 3rd with two out, but Andino hit a weak single again between short and 3rd to score two runs. Romero then errored allowing Teagarden to reach and McLouth was beaned before Romero got out of the inning. 4-2 after 2.

Romero managed to sail through the 3rd and 4th inning. Romero ran into some trouble in the bottom of the 5th as McLouth paid back Romero for hitting him by hitting a home run. Jones then hit a double and Romero walked two batters, loading the bases before Chavez hit a weak ground ball down the first base side that Romero handled and tagged him out to preserve the lead. Sierra immediately homered in the top of the 5th to give Romero a 5-3 lead going into the 5th, and with Romero having thrown 85 pitches and looking wild, it was really surprising to see him come out and pitch the sixth. I really thought that Farrell would want his bullpen to preserve the win.

In the bottom of the 5th, Romero continued his woes, giving up a double to Andino, a single and a walk, ending Romero's day. Sportsnet had some nice shots of Romero looking quite upset as Brad Lincoln came on to with the bases loaded and none out. JJ Hardy then singled to score a run. Lincoln then settled down and managed to strike out Adam Jones, then a shallowish fly ball by Davis was caught by Jones. Teagarden, the lumbering catcher tagged, and Gose threw a perfect one bounce strike to Arencibia to tag out the Oriole, just barely in time. 5-4 Jays after 6, and Romero was in line for the win.

In the 7th, with Jake Arreita on the mound, the Jays struck again. Encarnacion walked, Escobar singled, and Lind (who pinch hit for Yan Gomes against the righty) singled to load the bases. Sierra then hit into a fielders choice as Reynolds threw out Encarnacion for the force at home, and Visquel popped to short. Then, JP Arencibia, who was hitting 4-39 since his return, decided to hit a just-out-of-the park GRAND SLAM to take the a 9-4 lead.

Lincoln pitched the 7th, Loup the 8th and Janssen came on to pitch the ninth. He looked rusty, giving up 3 singles to load the bases with none out, but Reynolds managed to hit into a double play (scoring one) and Machado struck out to end the ball game.

Tuesday: Jays 4, Orioles 0

Aaron Laffey and the bullpen combine for a shutout, Jays get 13 hits for 2nd night in a row in a well-rounded effort.

Aaron Laffey threw something like 57 innings last year in the Mariners and Yankee organization before being converted into a starter by the Jays this year. So, far this year, Laffey threw 63.2 innings for Las Vegas and 90 innings for the Jays. I think if the Jays didn't have to use Laffey to start, they wouldn't, but with Happ on the bench and playing 10 games in 8 days left little choice for the Jays.

Laffey pitched 5 2/3rds inning, scattering 5 hits, pitching to contact (no walks, no strikeouts). Farrell decided to preserve his arm and took Laffey out of the game with Jones single while the Jays were up 2-0. Farrell then played matchups, putting out Delabar, Cecil (to get one out), and Lyon. Oliver and Janseen then finished the game, and once again Janssen looked rusty, as Escobar bobbled a ball with 1 out, then a popup and two walks later, the bases were loaded with 2 out with the tying run at the plate in Flaherty, who hit a fly ball to end the game.

Offensively, it was another 13 hit effort as every Jay got at least one hit. Gomes recorded an RBI in the first, with a single to score Lawrie in the 1st. In the fourth, Hechavarria hit a long double with two out to knock in Davis from first. The Jays scored two more in the 7th as Rasmus knocked in Arencibia who singled and advanced to second as Gose reached on a an error. Encarnacion then knocked in Gose but Davis threw out Rasmus as he tried to go 1st to 3rd. The throw by Davis was brilliant and just got Rasmus out at 3rd, so I wouldn't blame Rasmus from trying to advance.

Escobar, Gomes, Rajai, and JP Arencibia got two hits each. Arencibia was the only player who walked.

Wednesday: Jays 2 and Baltimore 12

Carlos Villanueva ran out of gas in the 5th inning as the Jays offense runs typically dry. The bullpen's minor leaguers allowed 2 runs each inning to put the game out of reach.

As I wrote in my previous blog entry, Villanueva has been audtioning to be a starter now since he entered the rotation on June 29th. The fear for Villanueva has always been his arm. He injured it last year, and he's never pitched as many innings as he has this year. I think that Villanueva has starter stuff, but that his arm will wear out at some point next year. For that reason, I think Villaneuva would be a perfect fit for the Jays as both Drabek and Hutchinson will be ready mid and late season to replace Carlos.

In the first inning, Edwin and and McLouth exchanged home runs. In the fifth, the Jays scored thir only other run of the game as Gose knocked in Arencibia who doubled on the previous at bat.

But in the bottom of the 5th, Villaneuva's arm had had enough. Villanueva's fastball had topped out at 90mph, and he was relying alot on his slider, change up and curve to get runners out, and he was successful at doing so. Villanueva up until the point was pretty good, throwing 7 strikeouts and walking 1. Jim Thome hit the 1st pitch (a change up) out of the park to tie the game. With two outs, Machado hit a home run (on another change up) to go down 3-2. McLouth and Hardy then singled before Chris Davis hit his 27th home run for his 27th home run (on a slider left up). That ended it for Villaneuva.

Down 6-2, Farrell elected to go to the AAA callups in the bullpen, going with Carreno in the 6th, who walked Wieters and gave up a 2 run home run to Mark Reynolds. In the 7th, Farrell went with Beck. Beck gave up a single to Hardy before Chris Davis hit a 2-run homer. In the 8th, Farrell went with David Carpenter. Lawrie had a terrible throw to allow Reynolds to reach, and then Machado homered. 12-2 after 8.

Offensively, Adam Lind went 3 - 4 (singles), while Arencibia (2B), Encarnacion (HR), Gose, and Hechavarria rounded out the hitting.

So, for Carlos, who may have one outing remaining, he is running on fumes. One might ask why Farrell would run out the Vegas trio to throw innings when down only 4 runs, but I am thinking that he needed to give his bullpen a rest.

Coming up: Jays vs Yankees

The Jays come home now to finish off their disappointing season, getting to hopefully play spoiler against the Yankees, who will be pulling out all the stops to win the division against the Orioles (who will be in Boston). The last series will be against the even more disappointing Minnesota Twins to close out the season.

 

Series wrap: The nightmare continues in Tampa

Where's the magic button that fast forwards to the end of the season?

Don't you wish, as a Jays fans, that you could just simulate the game instead of enduring the torture of watching these games?

Toronto has always had trouble in Tampa, having not won a series there in something like 6 or 7 years. That trend has continued, but these games were so lopsided. And Tampa is in the chase for a wild card spot 5.5 games behind Oakland, the team has to pull out all stops to catch the Athletics. Turns out that they did.

Friday, September 21: Jays 1 at Tampa 12

Carlos Villanueva started the night against James Shields, who has been fabulous against the Jays last year and this year. Carlos, on the other hand, was out to continue to audition for a coveted starting role on some team. Alot of Jays fans are stating that Carlos should be signed to a deal and to show him the money, and my position has been the same: the guy is not proven as a starter. Yes, he can start games, but can he last an entire season? No, he probably cannot. After the game, the Jays management stated that Carlos had arm soreness. The fact of the matter, fans, is that pitching is a violent and unnatural thing to do. Most of us can't throw anything over 40mph, and the fact that these pitchers get pitches up over 90mph is incredible. But it's extremely hard on the arm. Typically, managers will allow a 30% of overage for innings pitched from year to year. Carlos had arm soreness last year when he was given the starter's role, and it's the same this year. He doesn't have the stamina to go a full season in a rotation, and therefore, he will not command a starting position salary. Carlos has pitched about 12% more innings this year over last (so far). Next year, he will probably top out at 160 innings. A big league #1 starter will pitch over 240 innings, while a decent healthy starter will top out at about 200. That leaves Carlos one month short of making it through a season, and that is if everything goes right.

Tampa opened scoring with a Zobrist solo shot in the bottom of the 1st. Two more runs came into score on a Carlos Pena triple. Pena should have been dead to rights at 3rd but Lawrie couldn't pick a bad Hechavarria throw out of the dirt. Molina followed up with a two run home run to make it 5-0. Villanueva then opened the bottom of the third with two singles and a walk before a Luke Scott double (off the glove of Rasmus, a very EASILY handled fly ball) scored two more runs. Carlos then got Pena to pop out before Farrell pulled the plug on Villanueva. Chad Beck came in and stopped the damage, but it was already 7-0 at the end of 3.

Really, is there more to talk about? Beck was okay, letting in 1 run over 2 2/3rds inning of solid mid-relief work, but allowed 3 hits and two walks. With Tampa up 8-0, Farrell marched the very shaky David Carpenter onto the mound, the the Rays managed to score four more runs in the 6th to make it a 12-0 game. Loup and Janssen came on to finish the game.

Ug. Offensively for the Jays, a Yan Gomes double scored a Rasmus single, and that was it for the offense in the top of the 8th. Gose, Arencibia, and Lind were kept off the hit sheet, with Edwin taking the only walk.

Saturday, September 22: Jays 5 at Tampa 11.

Saturday's matchup was a resurgent Brandon Morrow vs a very good Matt Moore. Unfortunately for Brandon he had a frustrating start, not being able to command his slider and not getting calls on some very close pitches with his fastball.

It looked promising for the Jays, as they scored two runs against Matt Moore, as Lawrie opened the game with a walk, Rajai doubled and Edwin singled. Adam Lind hit a sac fly and it was 2-0 after the top of 1. But Brandon was worse, giving up a single and three walks. It was going to be a long night.

Brandon Morrow left a breaking ball over the middle of the plate in the bottom of the second to the desparate Tampa Rays Evan Longoria, who hit a three run homer.

The Jays thretened in the top of the 3rd with 1st and 2nd and two out, but Maddon pulled the plug was pulled early on Matt Moore and went to their very deep bullpen.

Brandon Morrow gave up a solo home run to Desmond Jennings in the bottom of the fourth and with the Jays down 4-2, that was the end of Morrow's day.

The Jays got to Jake McGee in the top of the 5th, as Adam Lind tripled home a single by Gose and Lawrie, and it was 5-4 at the top of the 5th.

But Brad Lincoln sunk it for the Jays, letting in 6 runs over two outs as Keppinger doubled, Francisco doubled,  Roberts singled (scoring Francisco), and Molina homered on an inside fastball. Then Jennings singled and  BJ Upton homered on pretty much the identical pitch to Molina. And it was 11-4.

In the top of the 8th, Hechavarria managed to get a one run back for the Jays knocking home Moises Sierra who had doubled.

And that's it: Morrow had a terrible start, and Brad Lincoln was terrible for the 2nd game in a row. The offense started off well enough, but Tampa was determined to win.

Sunday, September 23rd: Jays 0, Tampa 1

The hope disappeared for the Jays sometime in mid-August, but for Tampa, now only 3.5 behind Oakland for the last wild card spot with Boston, Chicago, and Baltimore left to play, every game matters. Today's matinee featured Jeremy Hellickson against a hopefully not-so-much scouted rookie Chad Jenkins.

Jenkins pitched very well, going five innings. His only blemish was a BJ Upton soloe home run given up in the first, and a couple of hits went very far and were caught, including a very nice Colby Rasmus catch to save a double. He went five innings, threw 60 pitches, and struck out four. Delabar and Oliver pitched fairly flawless sixth and seventh innings.

But Hellickson and the Rays were better, and the Jays managed to spray six through over the game, threatening in the 2nd from a Yunel and Johnson single with two out, but Sierra grounded out. In the 5th, another threat from a Yunel single and Gose single, leaving runners at 2nd and 3rd with two out, but Lawrie struck out. And in the sixth, the Jays managed to load the bases through a single and two walks with two out, but Maddon elected to go to the bullpen to McGee who struck out Kelly Johnson. And in the seventh, Gose doubled on a short fly ball into no-man's territory and was sacrificed by Brett Lawrie, but Maddon went to Howell. Rasmus got jammed, and Howell made an amazing play to throw out Rasmus for third out.

The Rays attempted to add some insurance in the 8th against Brandon Lyon, and a broken bat single by Jennings who stole 2nd. Zobrist was intentionally walked with one out, and Longoria hit a long fly ball to the wall that Sierra just missed, scoring two more runs and pretty much ending any hope for a comeback with the way that the Jays have been playing.

Rodney closed off the game stranding Escobar on first.

0-6. That's the story of these Jays for the road trip thus far, with four more to play in Baltimore. The Jays can't string together hits into runs, and if they do, it's when they are far behind in the game. They've come on the losing end of three close one-run games now, unable to solve the Yankees nor the Rays. There were terrible starts by Brandon Laffey, Morrow and Villaneuva, and when the team didn't pitch well, their hitting was worse.

Highlights for the Jays offense included an Escobar 3-3 day (3 singles and a walk) and a Gose 2 for 3 day. Lawries, Rasmus, Lind, Arencibia and Sierra did not hit. Arencibia has gone 2-37 since his return.

Meaningless games for the Jays, but with games against Baltimore and the Yankees, the Jays will play an instrumental role in the playoffs. Dropping three to Tampa allowed the Rays an outside chance of making the playoffs, being either 2.5 or 3.5 games back of Oakland.

Blue Jays blow it in New York

Is the nightmare over yet?

With the Jays having some success against the Yankees this season, there was a little bit of hope going into this long road trip on a positive note. With the Escobar incident and the rainout on Tuesday night, things looked bleak indeed.

Wednesday afternoon: Jays 2 vs Yankees 4

Wednesday afternoon's first of the day-night double-header featured Henderson Alvarez against the returning Andy Pettitte. In the bottom of the first, the Yankees quickly opened the game with singles from Ichiro and Swisher. With none out, Robinson Cano hit a very catchablefly ball over the head of Colby Rasmus, who was apparently just waking up. Seriously, a harder sprint and Colby should have easily caught that ball. That double scored the first run. The next two players scored Swisher and Ichiro through a ground ball out and a sacrifice fly. It was 3-0 after one. On the ground ball out, Adam Lind easily could have gone home but elected not to, costing the Jays a run. Alvarez should have gotten out of the inning with no runs, but his defence let him down.

After that, Henderson was great, retiring all Yankees save for Ichiro's single in the bottom of the 3rd over the next six frames.

The Jays offence however was ineffective against Pettitte. The Jays had runners in scoring position in the 2nd and 3rd inning but were unable to cash. Gose hit into the 3rd out in the 2nd; Lind hit into a double play in the 3rd, stranding Rajai on 3rd. Gose again hit into the 3rd out in the 4th with runners on 1st and 3rd. In the top of the 7th, with none out and a lead off double by Hechavarria, Gose attempted a bunt single but hit into a bunt fly ball caught by Chavez deep into foul territory - a great catch.

Finally, the Jays' offense sputtered in the top of the 8th against David Robertson. Lawrie doubled and Lind singled. Kelly Johnston, in to pinch hit for Jeff Mathis, singed home Lawrie. Omar Visquel, who had tied Babe Ruth in hits earlier in the game, then doubled home Mike Mccoy (who was pinch run for Lind), and with one out, there were runners on 2nd and 3rd. Hechavarria struck out, Gose walked, and Rajai Davis hit a line shot pretty much right to Ichiro who made an instinctive great basket catch to end the inning. 3-2 Yankees into the bottom of the eighth.

Darren Oliver came on in the 8th, but with two out, an Ichiro ground rule double and a Swisher single scored an insurance run for the Yankees. That was Swisher's first hit against Oliver in 19 plate appearances.

Soriano wrapped the game for the Yankees with his 41th save.

For the game, every Jay except for Mathis managed to get on base, but the game was about not able to cash in runs, going 3-13 with RISP and leaving 11 on base. Ichiro went 3-4 and scored the 1st and 4th run of the game and made key defensive plays. Rasmus let a ball get over his head, and Lind could have saved a run and elected not too. Gose was up three times and failed to cash in runners, and that is the short story of this game.

Wednesday night: Jays 1 at Yankees 2

This evening's game featured a struggling Ricky Romero against rookie reliever-turned starter David Phelps in his 11th start of his career.

Ricky looked shaky in the 1st, and the Jays looked like they would be in for a long night (turns out that would be the next game). Jeter singled and Swisher walked, but Cano flied out and A-Rod hit into a double play.

The Jays managed to score their only run in the second as Arencibia and Johnston walked. Hechavarria singled home Arencibia.

The bottom of the second was no better for Romero, as he walked Nix and McGehee. Ichiro singled, but Rasmus pegged Jason Nix coming home on a gorgeous and perfect throw straight to Arencibia, who applied the tag just before Nix' hand touched the plate to save a run and record an out. Chris Stewart, however, hit a ground rule double deep into the corner in left to tie.

Romero struggled through the next four frames, but the Yankees were never able to cash in anyone. Even though Romero allowed seven hits and walked five over 6 innings (WHIP = 2), he left the game in a 1-1 tie going into the 7th.

The Jays offense did nothing to help as the rookie pitched a 3 hit gem through 2 outs in the 7th. The Jays managed to load the bases in the top of the 7th against him through a single, walk, and an error, but Boone Logan came on to strike out Sierra to end the inning. Why Farrell didn't elect to pinch hit for a struggling Sierra I'm not sure.

Delabar ended up taking the loss for the Jays with an opening walk to Granderson, a sac bunt, and a single by Ichiro (who went 7-8 in the double header) to take a 2-1 lead. Soriano came on again to close it out for his 42nd save.

Defensively, Lawrie was very much focused as was the rest of the team, but offensively, they just couldn't get it off the ground, only getting three games the entire game versus a pitcher who just isn't that good.

Thursday: Jays 7, Yankees 10

This game was not nearly as dramatic as it was over early for the Jays thanks to Aaron Laffey and Brad Lincoln.

The Jays opened the scoring in the top of the 2nd with a double-double combination from Lind and Johnson. They added to the scoring with a bases loaded hit-by-pitch as Hughes plunked Sierra in the back. It was 2-0 Jays by the middle of the 3rd. 

But Ichiro opened the scoring in the bottom of the third with a fast ball left over the plate for Ichiro to hit out of the park. 

By the bottom of the fourth, Laffey hit his mental wall. The inning opened with a 10 pitch Russell Martin walk. Martin stole second, and a routine ground ball to Johnson by Granderson was bobbled, allowing him to reach. McGehee then walked to load the bases, and Ichiro did it again, doubling home two. That ended the day for Laffey. On came Brad Lincoln, who walked Nix to load the bases. Jeter singled to keep the bases loaded and score another run. Nick Swisher then belted a grand slam to right field to finish a seven run 4th inning and end much hope for the Jays.

Sierra hit a two run homer in the top of the 5th to score a walked Adam Lind to bring the Jays within 4. However, Brett Cecil let in two more runs in the bottom of the 5th, thanks to a Granderson double, Nix double, and Jeter single. It was 10-4 after 5.

The Jays tried to come back in the 8th, with a Johnson home run, an Arencibia single, a Gose double, an infield single by Lawrie (scoring Arencibia), and a Mike McCoy fielder's choice (to score Gose). David Robertson struck out the side in the 9th to end the game.

Stick a fork in it, the Jays are done

Truly, it's difficult to watch the Jays close out the season. The players with nothing left to prove are doing just that -- proving nothing. They are out of it. Colby Rasmus continues to struggle badly, batting just above .200 for September, but he will be the starting CF next year. Brett Lawrie has hit .200 since his return, but he will be the starting 3B. JP Arencibia is 2 for 29 since his return. Moises is hitting .162 in September -- he knows there's no room for him. Yunel is hitting .233 and Rajai is hitting .207 for September. Kelly Johnston is batting sub .200 for September. The only 3 bright stars on the team are Hechavarria, Encarnacion, and Gose. Encarnacion just continues to go out day after day and do his job. And Adam Lind continues to be a shade above mediocre.

And there are really no excuses this time. Back in August, the media claimed that with players missing, you could just pitch around everyone. But the weaklings in the lineups are still the regulars, who seemed to have checked out for the year. It's mental mistakes everywhere that are costing the Jays games -- from Moises' miscues on sunny days to Rajai and Colby's mental errors in not reading fly balls to Escobar's antics to not making plays to the correct bases, this team seems to have just fallen apart.

And why not? The season was as much a letdown for the players as it was for the fans. Freak injuries to the starters, then the relievers, then the starting lineup guaranteed the end of any hope for making the playoffs. Add to that the tradeaway of Lunchbox and the failure for Alex to pick up any piece that would help the Jays in their efforts, and what you have is a broken down team with no leadership and no hope. Farrell is not a veteran manager, and Alex Anthopoulos is not a veteran General Manager.

Ricky Romero was supposed to be the leader of the pitching rotation but all he has done is struggle. Morrow's return added some stability to the rotation. The loss of Bautista for the season certainly added a major  blow to the team. Brett Lawrie's loss made people realize that he is not the godsend to this team, and that he has a great deal of growing up to do. Rogers trotted him out at the beginning of the year as the team's brash, young, spokesperson, but as the year wore down, that role was taken away. Brett Lawrie is gifted, but he is far too aggressive, whether it's stealing bases unneccessarily, throwing helmets at umpires, or diving into camera bays. Restraint is required, young Jedi.

And the clubhouse antics of Yunel revealed the ugly and homophobic side to baseball and to the general unrest in the clubhouse. The clubhouse isn't nearly as cohesive as advertised. People in the dugout knew exactly what Yunel painted, and they did and said nothing except let him go out there and be the fool. A cohesive dugout would not have let that happen.

At the end of the year, there will be more questions than answers. Fans had hoped that Adam Lind and Kelly Johnston would have good years, but both are up for replacement. I really can't see Adam Lind staying on the Jays, as he is prone to health problems and has definite hitting issues. Yunel's existence on the team is questionable especially with an well-auditioning Hechavarria. A gaping hole is in leftfield with no one really stepping up to fill it, forcing Anthopoulos to deal in the off-season. 

It just seems like there are many more holes than there was at the beginning of the season to be resolved. At the beginning of the year, people would have been quite happy to say that 2013 would look like Escobar - Lawrie - Bautista - Edwin - Lind - Johnston - Rasmus - Lawrie - Arencibia -  Snider, and that indeed would be a formidable lineup if everyone was hitting as good as advertised. But for next year, we might see Hechavarria at short, a new 1B or DH in town, and definitely a new 2B and LF. Rajai and Jeff Mathis will be on the bench. Mike McCoy probably right now is slated to be the utility infielder, and the Jays will probably go out and acquire an inexpensive veteran bench player as they did in Omar Visquel. AA has a lot of shopping to do in the off-season, and the Jays' management knows that the fans are expecting a contender next year.

Colby Rasmus: Star or bum?

Cheese, or Razamatazz? A bit of both.

TorStar News Service

Since Colby has had his groin injured and was pulled in extra innings on August 3rd, he has posted a line of .113 / .175 / .140 over 57 plate appearances. 

Rasmus is hurt, and playing hurt, and probably would be on the DL if a number of other players were not. He is adjusting his swing to deal with pain. He is not playing well in the outfield. He is currently an offensive and defensive liability to the team. 

But with the Jays at 14 games under .500, why not let him play?

Wilner posted, after Saturday's loss to Baltimore, this, and it sparked a debate over Colby's usefulness as a player and a centerfielder in the major leagues of baseball. Let's try to put a reasonable spin on this by looking at his numbers.

Rasmus has been as hot and cold as a player gets in the majors. 

Born in August 1986, he is the only successful MLB player drafted out of Russell County high school in Seale, Alabama. Colby was drafted by the Cardinals in the 1st round in 2005 (28th pick overall) in the same year as Andrew McCutcheon, Jay Bruce, Brett Gardner, John Mayberry, Peter Bourjos, and Jacoby Ellsbury.

Colby received a $1M signing bonus, and his high school numbers looked pretty ridiculous, with the 2nd highest number of home runs hit in a season ever in the state of Alabama (Bo Jackson) and helped his high school win the national championship in 2005. He ascended through the minors and in 2009, he was rated the number #3 prospect by the Baseball Almanac in 2009, behind David Price and Matt Wieters. He started for the Cardinals in 2009 on the 2nd game of the season.

Colby's 2009 season as a rookie was hot and cold. He had a streak from June 1 - 19 where he bat .429 / .429 / .714 over 16 games, then there was a period from July 17 to August 7 where he bat .068 / .160 / .068 over 18 games. He finished the season batting .251 / .307 / .407 which for a rookie isn't bad. 

Colby's 2010 season was excellent. From the period of April 18 to June 15 over 49 games, he bat .319 / .405 / .625 with about 25 of his 51 hits were for extras, but then from August 13 to September 3 (11 games), he bat .050 / .321 / .100 in 28 plate appearances after he hurt his calf in a game. He finished his 2nd season in the MLB with a line of .276 / .351 / .498 and probably was the best offensive CF in the NL that year. From a defensive perspective, however, Colby was not very good, letting in 11 runs above average (worst in the NL). And his BABIP (Batting average of balls in play was well above league average, meaning that some of his extra hits were due to walks).

In 2011, Colby's defense was vastly improved, letting in 6 runs below average and getting some assists as well, but still, his defense has mostly been rated at average to below average for the position. As a hitter, he started off very well, batting .311 / .397 / .470 into May 13th before sliding back down to a .246 / .332 / .420 hitter at the trade deadline.

In addition, Colby had issues with Tona La Russa, and in an interview, the Cards manager claimed that Rasmus wasn't listening to his coaches. Colby was traded to to Toronto at the end of July for some relievers and Corey Paterson. The trade bolstered the St. Louis pitching staff to the point where they were able to win it all.

In Toronto, Colby started off well enough with a series of 16 games where he hit .302 / .308 / .556 with more than 1/2 of his hits for extras, but the 9 game bookends he hit 2-29 before jamming his right wrist, missing 3 weeks of the season towards the end. And the rest of the season was unremarkable, batting .089 / .128 / .156 (12 games) probably not being to get any valuable rehab games in because the minor leagues were shut down for the year. 

So what is to be learned by experience thus far into Colby's career:

(1) He is a below average to average defender. While he can run, we've seen him simply miss balls and misjudge plays. His arm is just okay. If he could run AND catch, he would be a great defender.

(2) He is subject to longish hot and cold streaks and therefore lacks consistency. When he is having his hot streaks, he can be excellent, but his cold streaks are equally as bad. 

(3) He takes a long time to recover from injuries. In each case where he was injured (2011 - wrist, 2010 - calf, 2012 - groin, he has gone under .089 in a series of 12 games where he has hurt himself.

So, looking at 2012, he injured his groin on August 3, and is batting .113 / .175 / .170 since. This should be no surprise, as it takes a long time for his bat to recover from injuries.

From May 9 to the all star break, he hit to his original 2010 form, batting .284 / .353 / .555 with 14 home runs. From the all star break until July 31, he bat just .152 / .194 / .242 over 17 games. Similarly, from April 22 - May 8, over 16 games, he bat just .137 / .228 / .216. 

So with all that we know, it is no wonder that the fans are hot and cold on Colby. It's because his outfield defending is okay, his hitting is very hot and very cold, and he takes a long time to recover from injuries. But his hot streaks are much longer than his cold streaks.

My feeling is that Colby's upside when he is hitting well (such as the two months this year, most of 2010 in St. Louis, the start of 2011, and a period of time in 2011 playing for the Jays before his injury) is that he is a tremendous offensive player when he is healthy and on. That's what Anthopoulos loved about him, and what the Jays fans love about him too.

So, he is both Cheese and Razzamatazz. He is Colby Rasmus, and at 2.7 million dollars, a pretty good deal.

The Jays last 20: 5-15. Why the slide?

It's not just the injuries -- everyone is underperforming

When the Jays left for Seattle at the end of July, the team was still one game over .500 despite Jose Bautista's injury and the decimation of their starting rotation over one week. The reason that the Jays were able to stay afloat from the starting rotation injuries until the end of July was amazing run production, at 5.38 / game over 37 games from June 16 to July 29, with a .270 / .335 / .475 line for an OPS of .811. When you bat that well, you are going to win games, and indeed the Jays needed on average 6 runs or more to win games during that time, because the starters (including Romero's meltdowns) and the bullpen just were not good at all.

But over the last twenty, beginning from the time that many team members gathered at Travis Snider's home in Mill Valley, Washington on what turned out to be a farewell barbecue, the team has gone 5 and 15. Perhaps Travis' steaks had some formula in it to make the Jays' bats useless, because this is exactly what has happened to most of the Jays bats, including the regulars.
 
When you look at the individual efforts of the Blue Jays in the last 20 games against Seattle, Oakland, Tampa, the Yankees, the White Sox, and the Rangers, you see a very disappointing effort that goes beyond injuries.

The team since July 29: 144 for 681 with 29 2B, 1 3B, 16 HR -- .211 / .264 / .327 for an OPS of .591

Average stats of teams pitching against (Tampa, Oakland, Seattle, Yankees, White Sox): .246 / .308 / .394 for an OPS of .702.

Team Leaders:

Moises Sierra*: 14 for 44 with 1 2B, 2HR -- .318 / .347 / .477 for an OPS of .824
Enwin Encarnacion: 17 for 70, 2 doubles, 3 HR -- .242 / .349 / .400 for an OPS of .749
David Cooper: 19 for 70, 6 2B, 2HR -- .275 / .286 / .449 for an OPS of .735

Underperformers:

Rajai Davis: 20 for 80 with 8 2B, 1 HR, plus 10 SB -- .250 / .298 / .387 for an OPS of .685.
Kelly Johnson: 11 for 64 with 4 2B, 3 HR -- .172 / .254 / .375. for an OPS .629Anthony Gose*: 10 for 48, 2 2B, 1 3B (8 SB) -- .208 / .296 / .292 for an OPS of .588
Colby Rasmus: 11 for 56, 1 2B, 2 HR -- .196 / .224 / .321 for an OPS of .545
Mike McCoy: 2 for 16 -- .125 / .176 / .294 for an OPS of .470
Yunel Escobar: 14 for 72 with 1 2B -- .194 / .256 / .208 for an OPS of .464
Jeff Mathis: 10 for 60, 1 2B, 2 HR -- .167 / .172 / .283 for an OPS of .455
Adeiny Hechavarria*: 5 for 30 with 2 2B -- .167 / .218 / .233 for an OPS of .451
Omar Visquel: 5 for 24 -- .208 / .208 / .208 for an OPS of .416
Brett Lawrie: 3 for 18 with 1 2B -- .167 / .167 / .222 for an OPS of .389
Yan Gomes*: 2 for 27 -- .074 / .138 / .074 for an OPS of .212

Missing is Travis' 1 for 3 on his last night as a Jay and the Aaron Loup AB in the 15 inning affair against Oakland.

The team for sure ran into some tough pitching but they didn't run into David Price, CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, or Chris Sale.

So, in as much as the media wants to blame the injuries for their woes, one needs to look at the performances of Colby Rasmus, Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, and Jeff Mathis to see why the team is lacking in production. Rajai Davis, when he gets on the bases, does well. But even Edwin is seeing a big slump in production over the last 20 games. Only three players are outperforming the league average.

It's expected to see the rookies underperform. But when your veterans are also underperforming, it is easy to see why the Jays are 5-15 since they went to Seattle. There are five games that the Blue Jays should have won with a performing and healthy team: The 2-1 loss to Texas on August 18; the 3-2 loss to the White Sox on August 14; the 3-2 loss to Tampa on August 8, the 5-3 loss to Seattle on August 1st, and the 4-1 loss to Oakland on July 30.

So, when the media challenges the fans and blames the injuries, here's the evidence to show you that the veterans left on the team have been terrible, too.

August 18: Rangers 2, Jays 1

Jays miss moments to mount comeback - fall short in vilifying Villanueva

While the pitching staff held the Rangers to two runs, Escobar, Rasmus, and Johnson are falling short, really short for the Blue Jays offense.

Villanueva pitched another brilliant outing against the hard-hitting Texas Rangers, holding them to two runs for the second night in a row. After Villanueva faced the minimum after 4 innings, an Adrian Beltre ground rule double (that Gose should have had -- he lost it in the sun) and was followed up by a Nelson Cruz home run. Both hits were due to a 82 mph changeup that Villanueva left up. Villanueva left the game with one on and one out at the top of the 7th. His pitching line was great: 4 hits, 2 earned runs, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts over 6 1/3, throwing 86 pitches (58) for strikers.

Aaron Loup, Chad Jenkins, and Darren Oliver pretty much shut down the remainder of the Texas offense as they got one more single in the top of the 8th.

The Jays offense was pretty much as disappointing as usual with many missed opportunities. The Jays offense came in the bottom of the third from the AAA combination of Gose and Hechavarria. Anthony Gose hit a single, stole 2nd, was balked to 3rd, and scored on Hechavarria's first RBI of his major league career, a single to right.

In the bottom of the fourth, Edwin was on second with no one out but couldn't advance as Cooper lined, Yunel flew, and Jeff Mathis struck out.

In the bottom of the fifth, Anthony Gose singled and Hechavarria advanced him to 2nd on a sacrifice bunt. Davis then bunt popped out and Colby popped out.

In the bottom of the sixth, Cooper and Escobar singled with one out. Johnson struck out, but Jeff Mathis reached on a slow single to Kinsler to load the bases for Gose, who struck out after 10 pitches (a great at bat, but was beaten).

And in the bottom of the seventh, the Jays had runners at 1st and 3rd with nobody out (Hechavarria ground rule double, Davis single). Colby then popped out to 3rd base. Edwin was intentionally walked to load the bases. David Cooper flew out to left field, but the ball was not deep enough, and Hech was given the stop sign from Butterfield. And Yunel hit a short fly ball to center to leave the Jays with nothing to show.

The Jays then went 6 up, 6 down to lose the game.

Some positives of the game was Mathis's throw to 2nd to catch a stealing Craig Gentry at the top of the 3rd, and a nice pick off by Loup to catch David Murphy going to 2nd. Hechavarria went 2 for 3.

Major disappointments was Colby Rasmus batting 0 for 5 and is now running an 0-14 streak and is 5-30 with one HR since he came back from his groin injury on August 3. Kelly Johnson is batting 2-20 in his last 7 games. Escobar is battng 3 for 23 in his last 7 games. So, it is the regulars who are now a big part of the problem for the Jays offence. When these three regulars combine to hit one hit per game, it's easy to see why the Jays offense is extra impotent in the last week. Only Edwin (who is 10-25 in the last 7) and Rajai (10 for 35 in his last 8 and 7 stolen bases) have been potent for the veteran Jays.

This is a game that the Jays would probably win with Bautista, Lawrie, Lind, and Arencibia in the lineup -- a tough show for the Jays today, but it shouldn't come as a surprise. Rasmus' bat needs to heat up again, and Brett indeed is due back early next week probably in Detroit although he only went to bat once in today's Gulf Coast game (due to poor field conditions).

Tomorrow's game features Henderson Alvarez vs Matt Harrison in what is sure to be an offensively challenged day yet again for the Blue Jays.