New season, same team?

Disappointment will be less as our expectations are much lower

The Toronto Blue Jays open their season tomorrow at Tampa before the Yankees come to town this weekend. I've been away for five months and it's great that baseball is back. I managed to listen to and watch some of the spring training games looking for something different. I watched the off-season moves, hoping that Alex Anthopolous and Rogers would come up with some scratch to sign a big name pitcher for 2014. 

So, what I see is the same players (save Navarro, thank God) on the same team using the same techniques to win and lose games. 

The exception this year is that our expectations were so high this year, while this year I think the fan base will be happy with anything over .500. Certainly, Rogers Media has toned down the rhetoric for this year, and that's a good thing. I think the fan base at Rogers Centre will remain steady, making no gains on 2013, while the fan base around the country will remain tied to the Blue Jays' win-loss record, with some extra interest as it looks like only one Canadian team will make the NHL playoffs.

Let's take a look at this year's roster and point out some of the questionable roster moves for opening day. This article will focus on the hitters, while the next focuses on the pitching.

Overall, this team should be hitting better than they did last year, which was absolutely abysmal. Last year featured some terrible offensive outages due to really poor seasons by Maicer, JP, and Bonifacio, bad streaks by Jose, Colby, Lind, and Lawrie compounded by injuries by most everyone on the offence, leaving them with inferior replacements like Kawasaki, Thole/Blanco, Gose, and Pillar. 

Once again, the key to this year's performance offensively will be consistency and injury avoidance. While the addition of Navarro might help the offensive performance as will a return of Melky to his former self, the team is now lacking formidable speed with the departures of Emilio (who could never get on base anyway) and Rajai Davis (a true weapon), and Anthony Gose sitting in AAA. This means that the team must attempt to move runners forward by ways of the bat. And with a three man bench and no one on the bench particularly good, late game situational hitting will be lacking.

This leads me to believe that while the numbers overall will be better, run production will suffer.

Here's my player by player analysis.

C - Dioner Navarro with a .300 / .465 / .492 slash last year and an all star 2008 (with Tampa) under his belt, this guy brings veteran experience behind the plate, which is what the pitching staff and John Gibbons needs defensively. Offensively, he comes with a caveat, in that there were years where he suffered at the plate. For example, after his all-star year with the Rays where he hit .295, he hit just .218 in the following year. So, it is unclear which Dioner we are going to get this year. Still, it's a huge improvement over the train wreck which was JP Arencibia last year. He seemed to have some power last year too, hitting 13 homers in 266 plate appearance. In Rogers Centre, playing full-time, he might have the potential to hit 20 dingers. I also like the fact that he came from Tampa, a Blue Jays rival, with some knowledge of the pitching system there.

C - Josh Thole is here to catch RA Dickey, and will figure into games only if he manages to crack .200. He was quite the batting disappointment last year, but I think part of that was the fact that he was only in games where the opposing pitcher was the team's ace (in that RA is the Blue Jays ace, and aces tend to play each other).

I am surprised that the Jays chose Thole over Kratz as the backup catcher. In the end, I think the Jays traded offense for the ability to catch and hopes that Thole can have a little bit of offense one game of five. I think it's a very tall order to push Thole into action one day out of five, and I would like to see the Jays play him in two of five games, especially if his offense shows a bit of spark.

1B/DH - Adam Lind has had an excellent spring, with Buck quoting that he was looking like the Lind of 2009. Well with the goatee, he definitely looks like the Dr. Hyde version of Lind in 2013. The issue with Lind always is his back health and his ability to stay consistent. If he can remain warm for 2014 and Gibbons uses him in every day situations (against LHP and RHP) and gives him breaks so that he can rest (using him as DH, sitting him from time to time), Lind can relive his glory from 2009.

1B/DH - Edwin Encarnacion, for a Jay, is Mr. Consistency. From oblivion three years ago when the Jays let him go to Oakland (only to be reclaimed), the former "E5" has turned into a decent first baseman sporting a .275 / .364 / .517 line over the past three years with not much in the way of injuries.

At issue here are the away National league games (against Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati) where both Edwin and Adam can't play.

2B - Ryan Goins -- The Blue Jays draftee of 2009 is the starting 2B, sporting a paltry .177 batting average over spring training. Last year, in his MLB debut, he hit .252 / .264 / .345 over 121 plate appearances, with 2 walks and 28 strikeouts. He is supposed to be excellent defensively.

I seriously question the decision of putting in Goins over Kawasaki. Now, one could point out Muni's slash last year (.229 / .326 / .308) as being worse than Goins, but that OBP is meaningful. Muni drew a heck of alot more of Pitches per Plate Appearance than pretty much anyone else in the majors. He is extremely popular with the fan base, and he is defensively capable all around the infield. One could argue that this year represents that natural progression for Goins, and that it's his time to prove himself at the MLB level. But the fan base loves Muni. He is JAPANESE!!!

The good news is that if Ryan doesn't prove himself, Muni will be on that bus from Buffalo.

SS - Jose Reyes, while defensively average, Jose is a necessary and vital piece of the Jays offense this year. Our hope is that his hamstring doesn't have any issue. His injury last year was not related to his hamstring. I hope that he improves on his already excellent .296/.353/.427 line from last year.

3B - Brett Lawrie -- We were hoping collectively that LAST year would have been the year for Brett, and looking that the downward trend year over year, we find that we have been making excuses for this man's offensive performance (at .254/.315/.397) last year. He had a terrible spring, got injured, tried 2B (stupid idea), and finally broke out after the all star break, where he had a string of 42 games hitting .324 / .384 / .507 before having a meh September. Defensively, he's a gem. If he stays healthy, it will be HIS year to show MLB his star quality. He becomes arbitration eligible next year, and the Jays are going to have to show him the money if he has a great year, which we all hopes he has. He seems to have matured and slowed down his waggle at home plate and seems to have more control.

UF - Maicer Izturis is the team's utility infielder and after a crappy year (his worst year offensively in MLB), we are all hoping that he does better. When he had regular play with Brett's injury, he managed to hit .309 / .351 / .397 over 150 plate appearance, which was pretty good. But he started off terribly and ended the season terribly as well, batting just .167 for the rest of the season over 103 plate appearances. Defensively, he is okay. 

LF - Melky Cabrera, with an undiagnosed tumour in his back and an absolute defensive liability in LF last year, the man still managed to hit .279 last year with no power. This year, he looks absolutely white hot, hitting .400 in spring training. We can only hope that Melky is the Melky of 2011 this year. We shall see if the turf in LF doesn't hurt him.

CF - Colby Rasmus was hot and cold last year, pretty much like the rest of the club, and with a strikeout rate near 30% and a propensity to look foolish against LHP, he can be a frustrating player to watch. Still, overall, he had an excellent year in 2013, batting .276 / .338 / .501. He demonstrates power. Defensively, he has moments where he is excellent, and moments of complete lapses. I'm looking forward to seeing him perform this year, and hopes that he has a consistently good year with a measure of better plate discipline.

RF - Jose Bautista has had an excellent spring, and that wrist and his violent swing hopefully will not lead to injury as it has over the last couple of years. Still, a HR every 15 or so plate appearances is not a bad thing, and his arm and defence is most helpful.

OF - Moises Sierra had an excellent 2013 in limited action as Jose's replacement last September and represents a capable 4th OF for the Jays and represents the good choice versus Gose and Pillar.

The Outsiders: Anthony Gose, Kevin Pillar, Muni Kawasaki and Kratz are the four outsiders looking in. I see all four of them in Jays uniforms at some point this year.

Next: the Pitchers.

Series recap: Jays wake up in Baltimore

September 24-26, 2012

After losing six in a row in the Bronx and at the Trop, the remaining Jays fans who have now turned their eyes elsewhere (not hockey) were looking for a turnaround in Baltimore. And it looks like they got one - a small one, mind you, as they went 2-2 in the four game set.

 

In all, the Jays come back off the road going 2-8, quite disappointing, but frankly, in a best case scenario, with the teams that they were playing and the state of the roster, 4-6 might have been the best to hope for.

On the pitching front, Laffey's effort was by far the highlight of the series. Alvarez, Romero, and Villanueva were not good. The bullpen however was excellent with the exception of Wednesday night's game when Farrell trotted out Carreno, Beck, and Carpenter down by 4, 6, and 8 runs. Janssen also looked rusty in his efforts but managed to get out relatively unscathed.

On the hitting front, Arencibia, Lind, Edwin, and Hechavarria were highlights, while Colby and Lawrie were disappointments.

• JP went 7 for 9 with two walks in the series, after going 2 for 37 with two walks since his injuries. Perhaps he's turned the corner, a great sign. Remember that in the 18 games before his injury, he hit .319 / .349 / .700 (with six home runs) and was really coming together. In Baltimore, he hit a  home run and a double.
• Adam Lind went 6 for 9 in the series (all singles). Since September 11, Adam's hitting 17-51 (.333) with 4 doubles, 2 triples, and a home run for an OPS of .906.  If Lind can end the season on this positive note, it will be difficult to dismiss him as the opening day 1B or DH especially against RHP and the value of his contract.  
• Edwin went 5-16 with two home runs. Edwin, in his last 11 games is batting 12-37 with 4 home runs and 8 walks (OPS 1.106).  
• Hechavarria went 3 for 8 and is running a 9 game hitting streak, batting 10 for 29 with 2 doubles and a home run in that stretch (OPS .889). Since August 23rd, Adieny is hitting (.303 / .329 / .434) over 81 plate appearances and is making the argument to be in the starting lineup next year.

On the awful side, Colby Rasmus went 1 for 12 (two walks) while Brett Lawrie went 2 for 16 (3 walks). Colby's batting .111 in his last 11 games played; Lawrie is batting .170. When your 1-2 in the order has a .255 and .200 OBP respectively, it's hard for Edwin to drive in runs. Bautista had the same problem at the start of the season when Escobar and Johnson headed up the lineup.

 

Monday afternoon: Jays 1 at Orioles 4

 

The Jays continued their offensive drought Monday afternoon, while Henderson Alvarez gave up four runs over 5 2/3rds inning in a step back after three good outings.

Henderson's enemy again was the home run. In the bottom of the fourth, a lead off walk to Chris Davis was followed up by an Adam Jones home run. Alvarez gave up an another home run to Flaherty to open the bottom of the fifth, and Alvarez really started to come undone in the bottom of the sixth, as the Orioles loaded the bases (Jones single, Wieters double, Thome intentional walk) with none out. Mark Reynolds then hit into a double play, scoring Adam Jones. Cecil then came on to finish the frame, and Frasor and Beck finished off the game without any damage being done.

Henderson's line was 5.2 innings pitched. Over 86 pitches, he walked 3, struck out 6, and gave up 2 home runs. The Jays defence was fine that afternoon with no glaring problems or issues.

 

On the offensive side, the Jays threatened (as usual) a few times in the game before breaking through in the eighth inning with two outs. Edwin singled, Lind singled, and Rajai Davis doubled home Edwin. Darren O'Day came on to strike out Kelly Johnson (good guess) to end the threat. Jim Johnson breezed through the last frame to record his 48th (!) save.

 

The rookie Steve Johnson let in 3 hits over five innings of work and looked great, now going 21 scoreless innings over a couple of starts and relief appearances. And besides Tommy Hunter, the rest of the Orioles pitching staff pitched with their usual efficiency.

 

For the Jays hitting, Colby reached twice on walks, and Adam Lind hit twice. Jeff Mathis went 0-2 as did Yunel. Anthony Gose went 0-4.

 

Monday night: Jays 9 at Orioles 4.

An excellent offensive effort by the Jays (Arencibia's 5 RBIs), and a key defensive play by Gose resulted in a Jays win.

The night game featured the struggling Ricky Romero vs Wei-Yin Chen. In this match, the Jays needed some excellent defensive play to win this game. Ricky was truly lucky to end up with the win.

Edwin started off the scoring in the top of the first with a two run home run following a Brett Lawrie walk. Ricky's bottom of the first looked a little shaky with a opening walk.

Chen continued to be shaky in the 2nd. Sierra singled and Visquel doubled to open the inning. JP Arencibia hit a long fly ball to right to advance Visquel and score Sierra. Gose singled to left to score Visquel and it was 4-0 going into the bottom of the 2nd.

But in the bottom of the 2nd, 8 hitters for Baltimore came to the plate as Romero's pitching woes continued. Reynolds singled, then Machado hit a seeing eye single between 3rd and short. Chavez advanced the runners to 2nd and 3rd with two out, but Andino hit a weak single again between short and 3rd to score two runs. Romero then errored allowing Teagarden to reach and McLouth was beaned before Romero got out of the inning. 4-2 after 2.

Romero managed to sail through the 3rd and 4th inning. Romero ran into some trouble in the bottom of the 5th as McLouth paid back Romero for hitting him by hitting a home run. Jones then hit a double and Romero walked two batters, loading the bases before Chavez hit a weak ground ball down the first base side that Romero handled and tagged him out to preserve the lead. Sierra immediately homered in the top of the 5th to give Romero a 5-3 lead going into the 5th, and with Romero having thrown 85 pitches and looking wild, it was really surprising to see him come out and pitch the sixth. I really thought that Farrell would want his bullpen to preserve the win.

In the bottom of the 5th, Romero continued his woes, giving up a double to Andino, a single and a walk, ending Romero's day. Sportsnet had some nice shots of Romero looking quite upset as Brad Lincoln came on to with the bases loaded and none out. JJ Hardy then singled to score a run. Lincoln then settled down and managed to strike out Adam Jones, then a shallowish fly ball by Davis was caught by Jones. Teagarden, the lumbering catcher tagged, and Gose threw a perfect one bounce strike to Arencibia to tag out the Oriole, just barely in time. 5-4 Jays after 6, and Romero was in line for the win.

In the 7th, with Jake Arreita on the mound, the Jays struck again. Encarnacion walked, Escobar singled, and Lind (who pinch hit for Yan Gomes against the righty) singled to load the bases. Sierra then hit into a fielders choice as Reynolds threw out Encarnacion for the force at home, and Visquel popped to short. Then, JP Arencibia, who was hitting 4-39 since his return, decided to hit a just-out-of-the park GRAND SLAM to take the a 9-4 lead.

Lincoln pitched the 7th, Loup the 8th and Janssen came on to pitch the ninth. He looked rusty, giving up 3 singles to load the bases with none out, but Reynolds managed to hit into a double play (scoring one) and Machado struck out to end the ball game.

Tuesday: Jays 4, Orioles 0

Aaron Laffey and the bullpen combine for a shutout, Jays get 13 hits for 2nd night in a row in a well-rounded effort.

Aaron Laffey threw something like 57 innings last year in the Mariners and Yankee organization before being converted into a starter by the Jays this year. So, far this year, Laffey threw 63.2 innings for Las Vegas and 90 innings for the Jays. I think if the Jays didn't have to use Laffey to start, they wouldn't, but with Happ on the bench and playing 10 games in 8 days left little choice for the Jays.

Laffey pitched 5 2/3rds inning, scattering 5 hits, pitching to contact (no walks, no strikeouts). Farrell decided to preserve his arm and took Laffey out of the game with Jones single while the Jays were up 2-0. Farrell then played matchups, putting out Delabar, Cecil (to get one out), and Lyon. Oliver and Janseen then finished the game, and once again Janssen looked rusty, as Escobar bobbled a ball with 1 out, then a popup and two walks later, the bases were loaded with 2 out with the tying run at the plate in Flaherty, who hit a fly ball to end the game.

Offensively, it was another 13 hit effort as every Jay got at least one hit. Gomes recorded an RBI in the first, with a single to score Lawrie in the 1st. In the fourth, Hechavarria hit a long double with two out to knock in Davis from first. The Jays scored two more in the 7th as Rasmus knocked in Arencibia who singled and advanced to second as Gose reached on a an error. Encarnacion then knocked in Gose but Davis threw out Rasmus as he tried to go 1st to 3rd. The throw by Davis was brilliant and just got Rasmus out at 3rd, so I wouldn't blame Rasmus from trying to advance.

Escobar, Gomes, Rajai, and JP Arencibia got two hits each. Arencibia was the only player who walked.

Wednesday: Jays 2 and Baltimore 12

Carlos Villanueva ran out of gas in the 5th inning as the Jays offense runs typically dry. The bullpen's minor leaguers allowed 2 runs each inning to put the game out of reach.

As I wrote in my previous blog entry, Villanueva has been audtioning to be a starter now since he entered the rotation on June 29th. The fear for Villanueva has always been his arm. He injured it last year, and he's never pitched as many innings as he has this year. I think that Villanueva has starter stuff, but that his arm will wear out at some point next year. For that reason, I think Villaneuva would be a perfect fit for the Jays as both Drabek and Hutchinson will be ready mid and late season to replace Carlos.

In the first inning, Edwin and and McLouth exchanged home runs. In the fifth, the Jays scored thir only other run of the game as Gose knocked in Arencibia who doubled on the previous at bat.

But in the bottom of the 5th, Villaneuva's arm had had enough. Villanueva's fastball had topped out at 90mph, and he was relying alot on his slider, change up and curve to get runners out, and he was successful at doing so. Villanueva up until the point was pretty good, throwing 7 strikeouts and walking 1. Jim Thome hit the 1st pitch (a change up) out of the park to tie the game. With two outs, Machado hit a home run (on another change up) to go down 3-2. McLouth and Hardy then singled before Chris Davis hit his 27th home run for his 27th home run (on a slider left up). That ended it for Villaneuva.

Down 6-2, Farrell elected to go to the AAA callups in the bullpen, going with Carreno in the 6th, who walked Wieters and gave up a 2 run home run to Mark Reynolds. In the 7th, Farrell went with Beck. Beck gave up a single to Hardy before Chris Davis hit a 2-run homer. In the 8th, Farrell went with David Carpenter. Lawrie had a terrible throw to allow Reynolds to reach, and then Machado homered. 12-2 after 8.

Offensively, Adam Lind went 3 - 4 (singles), while Arencibia (2B), Encarnacion (HR), Gose, and Hechavarria rounded out the hitting.

So, for Carlos, who may have one outing remaining, he is running on fumes. One might ask why Farrell would run out the Vegas trio to throw innings when down only 4 runs, but I am thinking that he needed to give his bullpen a rest.

Coming up: Jays vs Yankees

The Jays come home now to finish off their disappointing season, getting to hopefully play spoiler against the Yankees, who will be pulling out all the stops to win the division against the Orioles (who will be in Boston). The last series will be against the even more disappointing Minnesota Twins to close out the season.

 

September 2: Rays 9, Jays 4

Romero pitches pathetically; game finished early

After a very nice outing in New York against the Yankees where Romero gave up only 2 earned runs over seven innings, the fans were looking forward to Romero building off that game and hopefully finish up the season on a positive note. With David Price on the mound (2nd in the AL in ERA), it would be a tall order.

Unfortunately, the game was over very early for Ricky. In the bottom of the 1st with two out, Rajai pretty much missed a Longoria fly ball to left field that resulted in a run against Ricky. Rajai just didn't pick up the ball in time. Then in the 2nd, Ricky threw a 1-2 cutter for a home run against Ben Francisco. Carlos Pena then walked (plunking the ump in the process). Davis then hesitated on what should have been a single to Roberts (which turned into a double). That put runners on 2nd and 3rd with none out. Molina then singled, scoring another run. Jennings singled on the next pitch to score another run. Sierra then lost a ball in the sun and the ball bounced away from him, loading the bases, still with none out. Ben Zobrist then singled in two runs poast a diving Escobar to end Romero's afternoon. Romero's line: 7 runs on 8 hits, 1+ innings, 1 BB, 0K, and 43 pitches.

Chad Jenkins came in and gave up a run to Upton on a sacrfiice fly. After the top of two, it was 7-0 Rays. The Jays did threaten in the bottom of the 2nd, as Price gave up 3 walks to load the bases, but the Jays could not hit anyone home. Carlos Pena opened the 3rd with a deep home run against Jenkins (8-0 Rays). Tampa scored another another run from a Francisco ground rule double that knocked in Longoria (double). Chad Jenkins was acceptable in the 5th and 6th inning. And by the end of 6 it was 9-0 Rays.

The Jays did score 2 in the 7th off David Price, as Hechavarria singled, Rajai walked, and Colby singled to load the bases with 1 out. Edwin then hit a sacrific fly and Adam Lind singled on a high bouncing ball off the plate to score the two runs. Smart baserunning by Colby on Lind's single as third was left completely open on Lind's ground ball. Price then left the game (6.2 IP, 6 hits, 2 runs, 4 walks, 5Ks). Badenhop then came on to get Escobar to ground into a fielder's choice.

Laffey threw three innings of 3 hit ball, striking out three and walking 2. The Jays had a sputter of 9th inning offence as Colby singled and Edwin hit his 37th home run into the bullpen in left.

Final score: 9-4.

Offensively, Davis walked once in an 0-4 outing. Moises bat 0-4 again. Rasmus had a 2-4 afternoon, with all the others hit once. The Jays allowed 18 hits.

What is wrong with Ricky Romero? I still think it's definitely his head. In a game against David Price, he knew that he would have to be on top of his game to have a shot at winning. Rajai Davis' play to allow Roberts to reach 2nd took away the double play in the top of the 2nd. Sierra's loss of the ball in the sun did not help the cause. The ground ball singles were close to players. But mostly, Ricky just was not sharp and not mentally prepared to pitch this game. No excuses. If Ricky is going to succeed he has to get his mental game in order. Until that happens, you are going to see some very inconsistent starts. In the post game comments, Ricky had alot to say:

 Is any of it psychological? Do you go out there and feel like, ‘Here we go again?’
“No. Felt pretty good today. Just left some fastballs up. Other [hits] fell for them that inning. That’s just the way the game is. Everything went their way today.”

There’s probably no easy answer, but do you have any guesses about what may be wrong with you this year?
“No idea.”

Did the two days’ extra rest in New York help?
“No. I’m a starter in the big leagues and you’ve got to be ready to go every fifth day....  These performances have been rough. It’s tough to hear boos from your own fans. It’s tough to see your teammates going out there to battle every day. It’s been tough, it’s been stressful. But at the same time, you’ve just got to come back ready to work.”

Are you out of answers?
“Yeah. What more else can I say? It’s worn on me. I was born a winner. Going through something like this I’d never wish upon anyone.”

The thing is, Ricky, is that it is psychological.

September 1: Rays 5, Blue Jays 4

Turnaround is fair play as Omar hugs Molina to end the game



Tom Szczererbowski / Getty Images


Yesterday's game featured two outfield assists including a fantastic game-ending play by Moises Sierra and Jeff Mathis to end the game. Unfortunately, the Rays executed poetic justice today, ending the game with their own play from BJ Upton to ex-Jay Jose Molina to tag out a pathetic-looking Omar Visquel in the bottom of the ninth.

The game featured number #5 starter Henderson Alvarez against the returning Jeff Niemann, who fractured his ankle on May 14 on an Adam Lind line drive.

Alvarez and Niemann looked excellent at the start, as Alvarez faced the minimum seven hitters while Niemann retired the first ten.

Alvarez's poor inning came in the 3rd. With one out, Ryan Roberts hit his 9th homer. Henderson then walked Loboton and gave up a single to Desmond Jennings. BJ Upton then hit a slower grounder to Hechavarria that should have been a double play ball. But Johnston's connecting throw to Edwin was very high and caused Edwin to jump for the ball, allowing Upton to reach and prolong the inning. With two out, Ben Zobrist hit a double to the right field corner, scoring Loboton. Alvarez then walked Longoria on four pitches, loading the bases, before giving up a double in the left-gap to Matt Joyce, scoring two. At the middle of three, it was 4-0 Tampa.

Jeff Niemann's comeback was stymied, though. With one out in the bottom of the 4th, Niemann was forced out the game with "arm tightness". It appears to be nothing serious. On came Howell. The Jays immediately took advantage as Colby earned a walk and Edwin hit his 36th no-doubt about it home run to the third level at the dome, a beautiful shot. Lind grounded out, but Torrealba singled and Kelly Johnston walked. At that point, Maddon had seemed enough and brought in Wade Davis to retire Moises with two left on.

Alvarez got into a bit more trouble in the fifth, allowing two to reach with one out before Evan Longoria hit into a double play.

Alvarez's line was not good. 5 innings pitched, 5 hits, four runs, all earned, and 4 walks. He threw only 86 pitches. Alvarez has had five quality starts in his last eighteen starts back to May 20, and is sporting an ERA of 6.37, a WHIP of 1.7, and opposing pitchers are hitting a .908 OPS off of him. His K/BB ratio was 4:3.

Matt Joyce scored a solo homer in the top of the 8th off Brad Lincoln to gave the Rays a 5-2 lead. It was Lincoln's first run scored against in 6 outings.

The Jays left it to the 8th inning to start its comeback. Hechavarria opened the inning with the double off of Peralta. Rajai then hit an infield single to move Hechavarria over to third. Colby struck out. Edwin was walked. Adam Lind then came through with a single to score two and get the Jays within one. Joe Maddon had seemed enough and brought in his closer with one one. Rodney then walked McCoy, but struck out Johnston and Sierra to end the 8th.

The game wasn't over though, and in the 9th, the Jays threatened again. Omar Visquel walked, and Hechavarria sacrified him over two second. Rajai then failed to advance the runner with a fly ball to center. Colby Rasmus then managed to turn over a 100mph heater to stroke a single to centre. Omar, with two out, was running on the pitch. But BJ Upton's throw home ended up a bit high after the bounce. Omar was coming behind Molina to slide into home, but Molina ended up stepping back to catch the ball, inadvertently blocking Visquel's path, causing him to go further outside to avoid a calamatous collision. Molina caught the ball and applied the tag to Visquel as he was crawling back to the plate. Game over.

So, some thoughts about Omar Visquel. His "clutch" baserunning is terrible. He got caught stealing 2nd against Valverde as a pinch runner on August 22, for example, but the alternatives left on the bench was Escobar and Mathis. Escobar might have been a better choice, but his baserunning leaves alot to be desired as well. In retrospect, Escobar would have been the better choice, but you have to give Tampa full credit for getting the out at home. Should Visquel have bowled Molina over? Maybe, but Visquel would have lost that battle too, and you can't expect a 45 year old hall-of-famer to bowl over the respected veteran. In fact, after the out, Visquel gave Molina a pat which was very sportsmanlike, and it appears that Molina had some (probably kind)  words to say to Visquel while he was trying to reach for home plate.

And some thoughts about Henderson Alvarez. I think it's time for him to be shut down. He had 155 innings pitched so far this year, after only pitching 63 major league innings last year (and 96 minor league innings). His outings have been inconsistent at best, and his numbers require alot of run support in order for the Jays to have a shot at winning. With his 5+ ERA (that is not improving) and short outings (less than 90 pitches on average), it's time to give Jenkins or Laffey a view. With respect to next year, it's questionable whether Alvarez would make it into the rotation.

Romero, Morrow and Happ are presumable locks. If the Jays sign Villanueva to a contract (and they should) and go out and get a free agent starter in the off season (which they better), then the starting rotation will be complete, and Henderson will either start the season as the journeyman in the bullpen (with lefty Perez) or in the minors.

Offensively, the Jays managed 7 hits and 7 walks against the Tampa pitchers. The Jays left 7 on base. Moises went 0-4 and struck out three times. Rasmus walked twice and got a key hit in the game. Johnson got no hits but walked. Everyone else got a hit.

Tomorrow's outing  features a battle of the aces. Ricky Romero came off a great start over 7 innings against the Yankees, allowing two runs and five hits over seven innings in a tough 2-1 loss. Romero will have his work cut out for him against nemesis David Price, who after 12 quality outings (1.56 ERA, .182 BA, .857 WHIP) had a stinker against the Yankees, letting in 6 runs over 4 innings.

August 31: Tampa 1, Blue Jays 2

Practice makes perfect as Mathis and outfield connect to save the game

The Jays are looking like a team again. With their offense still being inconsistent, the pitching and defense would have to be fantastic to beat the Rays. But the Rays offense hasn't exactly been consistent either. This afternoon, before batting practice, John Farrell had his outfielders out there throwing balls home in order to improve the throws into the infield, which have been pretty poor as of late. Turns out that the training was timely.

Brandon Morrow started the game, his second game back, and this outing was very good, not lights out by any stretch, but very good, getting key outs when required. In all, Morrow went 6 2/3rds, throwing 102 pitches, striking out 5 and walking one. All of his pitches were working. He sprinkled 8 hits in the inning, and the only damage done was Desmond Jennings home run to open the top of the third to give Tampa a temporary 1-0 lead.

Steve Delabar was perfect coming on with two out in the bottom of the 7th to induce a grounder, and then to pitch the 8th to strike out Zobrist, Longoria, and Joyce on a very nasty combination of changeups and fastballs that just fooled the Rays.

Tampa's Hellickson was much better on the mound, but two home runs by Moises Sierra (to reply, opening the bottom of the 3rd), and Edwin Encarnacion (in the bottom of the 4th, bases empty, one out) to the 200 level in centre-left was enough for the Jays to win it tonight. Hellickson walked 1, struck out 2, and surrendered 2 more hits (a single to Encarnacion to open the 7th, and an Adam Lind single after the Encarnacion home run).

Off the hit sheet was Colby Rasmus (again, now not hitting in 4 games), now hitting 0-12 in his last four games with 4Ks and a walk. Yunel's hitting streak also ended. Rajai, Mathis, and McCoy also did nothing offensively.

Defensively, in the first, McCoy bobbled a Ben Zobrist double play ball but managed to get the speedy Zobrist out. And, in the top of the fourth, Colby couldn't outrun a Ryan Roberts hit into centre-left, which I think he catches if his groin was completely better. And in the top of the 7th, Rajai went all out to catch a Desmond Jennings line drive into left which ended up going to the wall for a double. It would have been nice to catch that. None of these, thankfully did no damage.

Jeff Mathis tags out Matt Joyce at home
(Rogers SportsNet)

But there were two fantastic defensive highlights in the game. The first was in the top of the 2nd with Keppinger on 1st and Matt Joyce on 2nd with one out. Ryan Roberts hit a single to left, and with Matt Joyce running, typically, Rajai makes a throw that ends up bouncing a few times or is 20 feet left or right of home plate. Not this time. Rajai throws a single bounce strike to the plate which Mathis picks up, blocks the plate, and tags Matt Joyce who barreled Mathis at home. Out!!!



Jeff Mathis tags out Elliott Johnson to end the game
(Rogers Sportsnet)



The last defensive play ended the game. With pinch runner Elliot Johnson on 2nd and pinch hitter Carlos Pena up with two out, he lined a Janssen 1-1 fastball single to Moises Sierra. With Elliott running home, Moises picked up the ball and fired a one bounce strike to Jeff Mathis, just in time for Mathis to once again block the plate and apply the tag to a diving Elliot Johnson to record the out and end the game and secure the 19th save of the season for Casey Janssen.

Well, this series is a guaranteed push for Toronto. It would be great to see the bats come out tomorrow, and with an Alvarez coming off of two very poor starts and Jeff Niemann making his first start for Tampa since Adam Lind broke Niemann's ankle with a sharp comeback to the mound on May 14th. Look for a high scoring game.

The Jays last 20: 5-15. Why the slide?

It's not just the injuries -- everyone is underperforming

When the Jays left for Seattle at the end of July, the team was still one game over .500 despite Jose Bautista's injury and the decimation of their starting rotation over one week. The reason that the Jays were able to stay afloat from the starting rotation injuries until the end of July was amazing run production, at 5.38 / game over 37 games from June 16 to July 29, with a .270 / .335 / .475 line for an OPS of .811. When you bat that well, you are going to win games, and indeed the Jays needed on average 6 runs or more to win games during that time, because the starters (including Romero's meltdowns) and the bullpen just were not good at all.

But over the last twenty, beginning from the time that many team members gathered at Travis Snider's home in Mill Valley, Washington on what turned out to be a farewell barbecue, the team has gone 5 and 15. Perhaps Travis' steaks had some formula in it to make the Jays' bats useless, because this is exactly what has happened to most of the Jays bats, including the regulars.
 
When you look at the individual efforts of the Blue Jays in the last 20 games against Seattle, Oakland, Tampa, the Yankees, the White Sox, and the Rangers, you see a very disappointing effort that goes beyond injuries.

The team since July 29: 144 for 681 with 29 2B, 1 3B, 16 HR -- .211 / .264 / .327 for an OPS of .591

Average stats of teams pitching against (Tampa, Oakland, Seattle, Yankees, White Sox): .246 / .308 / .394 for an OPS of .702.

Team Leaders:

Moises Sierra*: 14 for 44 with 1 2B, 2HR -- .318 / .347 / .477 for an OPS of .824
Enwin Encarnacion: 17 for 70, 2 doubles, 3 HR -- .242 / .349 / .400 for an OPS of .749
David Cooper: 19 for 70, 6 2B, 2HR -- .275 / .286 / .449 for an OPS of .735

Underperformers:

Rajai Davis: 20 for 80 with 8 2B, 1 HR, plus 10 SB -- .250 / .298 / .387 for an OPS of .685.
Kelly Johnson: 11 for 64 with 4 2B, 3 HR -- .172 / .254 / .375. for an OPS .629Anthony Gose*: 10 for 48, 2 2B, 1 3B (8 SB) -- .208 / .296 / .292 for an OPS of .588
Colby Rasmus: 11 for 56, 1 2B, 2 HR -- .196 / .224 / .321 for an OPS of .545
Mike McCoy: 2 for 16 -- .125 / .176 / .294 for an OPS of .470
Yunel Escobar: 14 for 72 with 1 2B -- .194 / .256 / .208 for an OPS of .464
Jeff Mathis: 10 for 60, 1 2B, 2 HR -- .167 / .172 / .283 for an OPS of .455
Adeiny Hechavarria*: 5 for 30 with 2 2B -- .167 / .218 / .233 for an OPS of .451
Omar Visquel: 5 for 24 -- .208 / .208 / .208 for an OPS of .416
Brett Lawrie: 3 for 18 with 1 2B -- .167 / .167 / .222 for an OPS of .389
Yan Gomes*: 2 for 27 -- .074 / .138 / .074 for an OPS of .212

Missing is Travis' 1 for 3 on his last night as a Jay and the Aaron Loup AB in the 15 inning affair against Oakland.

The team for sure ran into some tough pitching but they didn't run into David Price, CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, or Chris Sale.

So, in as much as the media wants to blame the injuries for their woes, one needs to look at the performances of Colby Rasmus, Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, and Jeff Mathis to see why the team is lacking in production. Rajai Davis, when he gets on the bases, does well. But even Edwin is seeing a big slump in production over the last 20 games. Only three players are outperforming the league average.

It's expected to see the rookies underperform. But when your veterans are also underperforming, it is easy to see why the Jays are 5-15 since they went to Seattle. There are five games that the Blue Jays should have won with a performing and healthy team: The 2-1 loss to Texas on August 18; the 3-2 loss to the White Sox on August 14; the 3-2 loss to Tampa on August 8, the 5-3 loss to Seattle on August 1st, and the 4-1 loss to Oakland on July 30.

So, when the media challenges the fans and blames the injuries, here's the evidence to show you that the veterans left on the team have been terrible, too.

August 18: Rangers 2, Jays 1

Jays miss moments to mount comeback - fall short in vilifying Villanueva

While the pitching staff held the Rangers to two runs, Escobar, Rasmus, and Johnson are falling short, really short for the Blue Jays offense.

Villanueva pitched another brilliant outing against the hard-hitting Texas Rangers, holding them to two runs for the second night in a row. After Villanueva faced the minimum after 4 innings, an Adrian Beltre ground rule double (that Gose should have had -- he lost it in the sun) and was followed up by a Nelson Cruz home run. Both hits were due to a 82 mph changeup that Villanueva left up. Villanueva left the game with one on and one out at the top of the 7th. His pitching line was great: 4 hits, 2 earned runs, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts over 6 1/3, throwing 86 pitches (58) for strikers.

Aaron Loup, Chad Jenkins, and Darren Oliver pretty much shut down the remainder of the Texas offense as they got one more single in the top of the 8th.

The Jays offense was pretty much as disappointing as usual with many missed opportunities. The Jays offense came in the bottom of the third from the AAA combination of Gose and Hechavarria. Anthony Gose hit a single, stole 2nd, was balked to 3rd, and scored on Hechavarria's first RBI of his major league career, a single to right.

In the bottom of the fourth, Edwin was on second with no one out but couldn't advance as Cooper lined, Yunel flew, and Jeff Mathis struck out.

In the bottom of the fifth, Anthony Gose singled and Hechavarria advanced him to 2nd on a sacrifice bunt. Davis then bunt popped out and Colby popped out.

In the bottom of the sixth, Cooper and Escobar singled with one out. Johnson struck out, but Jeff Mathis reached on a slow single to Kinsler to load the bases for Gose, who struck out after 10 pitches (a great at bat, but was beaten).

And in the bottom of the seventh, the Jays had runners at 1st and 3rd with nobody out (Hechavarria ground rule double, Davis single). Colby then popped out to 3rd base. Edwin was intentionally walked to load the bases. David Cooper flew out to left field, but the ball was not deep enough, and Hech was given the stop sign from Butterfield. And Yunel hit a short fly ball to center to leave the Jays with nothing to show.

The Jays then went 6 up, 6 down to lose the game.

Some positives of the game was Mathis's throw to 2nd to catch a stealing Craig Gentry at the top of the 3rd, and a nice pick off by Loup to catch David Murphy going to 2nd. Hechavarria went 2 for 3.

Major disappointments was Colby Rasmus batting 0 for 5 and is now running an 0-14 streak and is 5-30 with one HR since he came back from his groin injury on August 3. Kelly Johnson is batting 2-20 in his last 7 games. Escobar is battng 3 for 23 in his last 7 games. So, it is the regulars who are now a big part of the problem for the Jays offence. When these three regulars combine to hit one hit per game, it's easy to see why the Jays offense is extra impotent in the last week. Only Edwin (who is 10-25 in the last 7) and Rajai (10 for 35 in his last 8 and 7 stolen bases) have been potent for the veteran Jays.

This is a game that the Jays would probably win with Bautista, Lawrie, Lind, and Arencibia in the lineup -- a tough show for the Jays today, but it shouldn't come as a surprise. Rasmus' bat needs to heat up again, and Brett indeed is due back early next week probably in Detroit although he only went to bat once in today's Gulf Coast game (due to poor field conditions).

Tomorrow's game features Henderson Alvarez vs Matt Harrison in what is sure to be an offensively challenged day yet again for the Blue Jays.

August 17: Rangers 2 Jays 3

JA Happ shines in start against not-so-hard hitting Rangers

Texas, since August 1st is batting .287 / .353 / .791 and can be explosive at the plate. Happ wasn't fazed, pitching six innings, letting one run score on two hits, striking out 8 over six innings and 98 pitches. This is exactly the start required for the Jays to have a chance to win, and with Edwin back in the lineup, the Jays had a chance to score a couple of runs against Yu Darvish.

Yu hasn't be so yu-ish lately. In his past 9 starts, he's 4-4 with an ERA of 5.85 and a WHIP of 1.45. So, the Jays had a chance to do a little bit of damage. The Jays sported six vets in the lineup, (Cooper, Sierra, and Gose were the AAA Jays). Rasmus was scratched with his aggravated groin injury.

Scoring opened for Toronto in the 1st inning with a Kelly Johnson walk followed by Edwin's 31st home run to make it 2-0.

Happ, meanwhile, had a perfect 3 innings, striking out 6 in a row in the 2nd and 3rd inning, before walking Kinsler at the top of the 4th, but finished off the side. Happ got into a bit of trouble in the 5th, letting in a couple of singles before a sacrifice bunt and a ground out allowed a run to score. Happ then pitched a 1-2-3 6th and left the game.

The Jays running game took over in bottom of the 5th. With two out, Anthony Gose hit a fly ball that Gentry couldn't reach, and the ball bobbled around in the corner, while Gose pulled off a Usain Bolt with a triple despite the ball being no more than 10 feet from Gentry. Gose's triple was the difference in the game: Rajai knocked him in with a single, but then stole 2nd AND 3rd base before Kelly Johnson struck out.

Rajai is ridiculous in that he has 37 stolen bases (8 caught) in 80 stolen base opporuntinues. That's a 56% attempt to steal rate. Miami's Emilio Bonifacio has 33 stolen bases / attempts in 99 opportunites, for a rate of 33%. Mike Trout's rate is 23%. Rajai is prolific and aggressive, and the pitchers really can't do anything about it.

Delabar meanwhile came on the 7th and got into a bit of trouble. Delabar walked Beltre, and then gave up a single to Adrian Young and walked Nelson Cruz to load the bases with two outs. Rookie Mike Olt then hit a grounder to Omar Visquel who uncharacteristly booted it for an error to cut the lead to 3-2. Out went Delabar, and in come Brandon Lyon to face Ian Kinsler, who grounded to Escobar. Fans let out a big sigh.

Darvish had a good night too, letting in 3 runs over 7 innings, striking out 10, pitching 114 pitches (71 for strikes), allowing only 3 hits and 1 walk, meaning that the Jays were very efficient in scoring runs.

The Jays then used Lyon, Loup, and Lincoln to pitch a 1-2 inning to Andrus, Hamilton, and Beltre. Lincoln, however did not get Beltre out as he hit a broken bat single to left. Michael Young then grounded out as Lincoln preserved the game with a one run lead.

KC Janssen then pitched the 9th for his 16th save against the bottom of the Texas lineup, pitching a 1-2-3 inning. Gose and Escobar pretty much ran into each other for the fly for the 2nd out.

This is precisely the only way the Jays are going to win games for another week when both Lawrie and Bautista return and Rasmus returns healthy. Excellent starting pitching, a little bit of run support, and a strong bullpen is the only way the Jays can expect to win games in the next week against Texas, Detroit and Baltimore.

Great game for the Jays fans to watch in this nailbiter.

August 16: White Sox 7, Jays 2

Home run ball hurts Laffey; bullpen puts game out of reach

Aaron Laffey gave up three hits, but they were all  bases empty home runs by the White Sox, including back to back shots to open the 5th inning. Laffey's line was good, with 5 strikeouts and two walks over 6 innings, throwing 91 pitches (51 strikes). Homeruns were by DeWayne Wise, Viciedo, and Flowers. Flowers home run hit just below the upper deck, just above the Tony Fernandez sign on the "Level of Excellence". Wow.

The Jays, with Edwin out of the lineup with a sore shoulder and forearm due to the diving catch the night before, once again, could not muster up offense. The offence: a David Cooper single followed by a Moises Sierra home run. Three of the four Jays' hits were managed in the 2nd inning.

During the bottom of the 7th with Gose on 2nd, Toronto EMS carted off a middle-aged man who suffered a cardiac arrest in the stands along the 3rd base line. Apparently, Kevin Youkilis (perhaps at the request of security) requested the game to be stopped so that EMS could attend to the fans. The five minute game stoppage affected everyone who attended the game and put a pall on the game. For a few minutes, people realized that baseball was just a game and put perspective on their own lives for a few moments. The man later died in hospital. Blue Jays players and White Sox players alike were stunned.

Perhaps this might be an excuse for what happened in the next inning. Darren Oliver sealed the deal for Chicago in the 8th inning as Blue Jays traitor Alex Rios hit a 3 run home run to left field to score a Kevin Youkilis single and a Adam Dunn walk. Darren Oliver has been absolutely stellar this season, and it was the 3rd home run he has given up. In his 46 appearances this season, he has given up 6 runs (all earned) over 42 2/3rds innings. Up until tonight, the most runs he's given up in an inning has been 1. He is responsible for 2 losses. Oliver left the game with two outs.

Then, Brandon Lyon gave up a home run to Alexei Ramirez (the first batter in the thhat he faced) before striking out Viciedo to end the top of the 8th.

Liriano was great tonight, and the Jays veterans (Davis, Rasmus, Escobar, Johnson, Mathis) went 2 for 17 (2 infield hits by Mathis) with a walk. The Jays are not going to win games when the veterans don't hit.

Now, the Jays face the AL West leading Texas Rangers, probably without Edwin, and definitely without Lawrie, a hurt Rasmus, Bautista, Lind, Arencibia... the list goes on.

Would the Jays be contending now but for the injuries?

Could the Jays have won 4 more games of the last 29 with an intact lineup? Sure. Does that make them a contender? Maybe.

Listening to Wilner's the Blue Jays talk last night, Wilner believed that "absolutely, the team would be contending right now" if the Jays were not injured. He stated that since the Jays lost Bautista, the team went 11-18.

Let's say that instead of 11-18, they went 15-14. Where would they be in the standings today? On July 16, the Jays were 45-45 (now 56-63), and they were two games back of Detroit (47-43) for the remaining wildcard spot.

Okay, without Bautista, they got swept by the Yankees, but then swept the Boston Red Sox. On Sunday, July 22, the Jays were 48-47, but three games out of a wild card behind the Orioles at 51-44. It's safe to say that the results in the Bronx would not have changed as the Jats lost 6-0 and 6-1. Bautista's bat would not have been a factor.

For the Oakland series at home, July 25th was the last day that we saw Adam Lind and JP Arencibia. The Jays missing those three in the line up would have had no effect on the outcome (The Jays sans Bautista would not have come back from a 8 run disaster by Romero nor a 7-2 decision the day before). So at the end of the Oakland series at home on July 26 (a game that they won), the Jays record was 49-49, 4 games back of Oakland for the final wild card spot. No change to the Jays record thus far purely due to injuries in the starting lineup.

The Jays then won two of three against the Tigers on the weekend series and lost 4-1 on the Sunday game with Cecil pitching against Fister. Without Arencibia, Lind and Bautista, it's safe to say that this loss still would have happened -- the Jays only threatened in the 3rd and 4th inning in this game and the batters up were regulars. So as of July 29, the Jays record is still unchanged at 51-50, 4 games back of the Angels for the final wild card spot.

So, let's be clear. Before the road trip to the west coast, on July 30th, the Jays were 4 games out a playoff spot with a record of 51-50, and there are no games that the Jays really would have won with Bautista, Lind, and Arencibia in the lineup. They either lost by too many runs or weren't due in the lineup to comeup in situations with runners on base.

Anthopoulos therefore would have made the same moves at the trade deadline.

The West Coast has always been particularly hard on the Jays, and with the trade of Snider, the offense really started to lag at this point, and with the Jays without Arencibia, Lind, Bautista, and now Snider out of the lineup, it's safe to say that perhaps the Jays would have won the finale (which they lost 5-3) as there were many opportunities for the Jays but the wrong bats were up. Seattle had just come off of a sweep of Kansas and were playing well. Still, the Jays should have won one game in Seattle. This puts the Jays at 52-52 going into Oakland for the four game series, now games back of Oakland.

So, now the Jays in Oakland and in the first game they lost 4-1 against Alvarez. Cooper went 1-3 (in place of Lind, Gose went 1-4 in place of Bautista, and Gomes went 0-4). Perhaps two hits would have been added by the senior jays. I think they could have won this game as they were threatening a few times where Bautista / Arencibia would have been at bat instead of Gose / Gomes. The Jays win this one if their line up was intact.

The August 3rd game was the 15 inning affair where the Jays lost Lawrie and Rasmus and was the breaking point truly for this team. Still, I will put this in the loss column for the Jays just because I don't think the Jays get out of Oakland with less than one loss. So the Jays go 3-1 in Oakland instead of 2-2, and the Jays are 55-53 out of Oakland (Oakland is then 57-51). This puts the Jays two game out of a wild card spot going into Tampa.

Tampa has never been good to the Jays (7 years since they won a series there), so I am going to put them 1-2 in the series instead of 0-3 (I think the Jays beat Cobb on the Wednesday night game). Jays are 56-55 out of Tampa (who are then 58-53) and are still only three games back of the wild card spot.

Time for a reality check -- It's reasonable that the Jays would go 5-5 on the road. Oakland did not play very well, and the Jays should have taken that series. And winning 2 of 6 against Seattle and Tampa is reasonable.

The Jays then go home to face the Yankees in last weekend's series sans Lawrie, Rasmus, Bautista, Arencibia, and Lind. The Yankees would have won the opener anyway as they won 10-4. The Jays probably don't take Saturday's game either. So, the result of this series remains the same at 1-2. Jays would by 57-57 after New York, 4 games back of a wild card (Tampa would be 61-53, Baltimore 62-53). Also ahead of Toronto: Oakland (60-54), Detroit (61-54) and the Angels (60-55).

This takes us to the current series. It's safe to say I think that the Jays win Tuesday night's game (they lost 3-2) as they were threatening several times and couldn't convert. This puts the Jays right now going into tonight's game at 59-58, 5 games back of Baltimore, 3 back of Tampa (62-55), 2.5 back of Detroit (63-55), 1.5 back of the Angels (62-56) and 1/2 game back of Oakland (60-56).

So, without the injuries, I beleive that the Jays get one win back from each of Seattle, Oakland, Tampa, and Chicago. Instead of the Jays being 55-62, they are 59-58, three games back of a wild card. And I think that this number is bang on. They were .500 going into the Baustista injury and the improvements that the team made at the deadline would not have drastically improved this number.

At the trade deadline, Anthopoulos gave up on the Jays by not adding a good (sorry, Happ) veteran arm to the rotation while other contenders did. He did not believe that the Jays were a contending team being 4 games back just before the Jays left for the west coast.

When you look at the standings today, even with the four extra wins, the Jays would have needed to get by four other teams who would still be doing better than them. Detroit or Tampa are projected to have 87 wins and that's the magic number (Probably it is 88). For the Jays to hit that, they would have needed to go 28-17 against a very difficult schedule. Not impossible, but not likely either.

Wilner would call a team 3, 4, even 5 games out of a wild card a contending team. But given the number of wins they would have to take to make the wild card and the teams that they would have to pass, I would not have called them a contender on July 16th, and I wouldn't have called them a contender today even with 59 wins.  

So yep, blames the injuries for the Jays woes. It's the sad truth, but even without the injuries to the starting lineup, the Jays probably would not be contenders.

August 15: White Sox 9, Jays 5

Romero and Lincoln blow game after Johnson's blast ties game

Ricky Romero's biggest problem is himself. Rather than just pitch, he has the game all inside his head. When the three pitchers went on the DL in mid-June, rather than continuing to pitch well, he fell apart, not that he was particularly good this season to begin with, sporting a 4.15 ERA and a WHIP around 1.3 in his first 13 starts in the season. But since the Philadelphia start until the end of July, he truly sucked. Over 9 starts, his ERA was 8.37 with a WHIP over 2, with a K to BB ratio very close to 1. 

He had a couple of good starts, but tonight, Ricky was just warm and cold. To open the top of the the 2nd inning, two runs scored on four singles opened the 2nd inning, throwing 11 fastballs in a row to the 5-8 hitters (Pierzynski, Ramirez, Viciedo, and Dewayne Wise). Mind you, Edwin was playing left tonight and despite a valiant effort by Edwin to catch Wise's line drive, he ended up dropping it. Then to open the 4th, Romero walks Viciedo and then Dewayne Wise hits a home run to the 100 level in right. It was 4-0 at the end of 4.

The Jays opened scoring at the bottom of the 5th against Gavin Floyd as a double steal by Visquel (on 2nd) and Gose went awry with Davis striking out. Pierzynski's throw went errant, hit Visquel, who ended up scoring. 4-1 after 5.

In the bottom of the 6th, the Jays tied it (after Romero retired 9 in a row) on a three run blast by Kelly Johnson to score Edwin (single) and David Cooper (ground rule double). 

But at the top of the 7th, Ricky lost his concentration again, walking De Aza on 5 pitches and plunking Youkilis. Out went Ricky, on came Brad Lincoln. Brad Lincoln just came off of his worst relief effort in a 10-4 lead against the Yankees, letting in 3 runs over 4 hits three days ago. Brad Lincoln couldn't find the plate against Adam Dunn, and when he did, he let it fly out of the park for a three run homer to the 200 section in right. Four batters later, Viciedo homered to plate Piercynski. 

Chad Jenkins pitched a quick 1-2-3 ninth. Jeff Mathis hit a solo homer in the 9th against Philip Humber, but the Jays did nothing else.

Fans are not going to be happy with Brad Lincoln or the trade. Travis Snider is hitting .325 / .360 / .450 in Pittsburgh which is what the Jays have really needed. Lincoln, meanwhile, has not looked good in the last two outings, and has not contributed to a Jays win in his previous four outings. My response is to give Lincoln some more chances.

And fans certainly are not going to be happy with Ricky after tonight's game. His head just isn't screwed on properly. Hopefully he spends alot of valuable time with a Spanish speaking sports therapist between his starts because man, he needs it.

On a positive, I do like the middle of the makeshift lineup with David Cooper following up Edwin Encarnacion. Cooper is just really proving himself up in Toronto, making us not miss Adam Lind at all.

August 12: Yankees 7, Jays 10 (no, not 1)

It's the Rajai Davis show as Jays bats wake up



Not photoshopped - Rajai catches this.
 (Fred Thornhill / Reuters)

The Jays struck for 6 runs in the fourth inning as the Jays beat the Yankees in a 10-7 to salvage a game and put an end to a 5 game losing skid.

David Cooper started the scoring in the bottom of the first singling in a Edwin Encarnacion double for the game's first run.

In the fourth, Moises Sierra opened with a single to right, followed by a double by Jeff Mathis to score him. A Yan Gomes sacrifice moved Mathis to third, and Gose took an uncharacteristic walk. Rajai Davis then cleared the bases with a double to give the Jays a 4-0 lead. Mike McCoy, the veteran callup from AAA, singled home Rajai, and then Edwin homered to give the Jays a 7-0 lead through 4.

And JA Happ really came throough and faced the minimum batters through 4 and 1/3rd. A Casey McGehee double scored Andrus Jones to put the Yankees on the board.

Rajai Davis however stole the show again with a bases clearing double to score three (scoring Mathis, Gomes, and Hechavarria)

But JA Happ faced more problems in the top of the 6th as the long ball took over for the Yankees. A solo shot by Jeter followed by a two run no-doubt-about-it dinger from Cano put the Yankees at 10-4. On came Brad Lincoln. Up until the end of the 5th, it was a solid performance, and clearly I think JA Happ was running out of gas by the 6th, as he needs another start to stretch it out.

But there were more problems with Lincoln in the 7th. But it may have been alot worse for the Jays if it wasn't for the play of the year by Rajai Davis, who took a running grab up the wall and took away a definite home run ball by Casey McGehee. This ball is one that outfielders normally give up on. The fence at Rogers is 10 feet tall, and Rajai timed it perfectly to take a run at the wall and use his momentum to go over the wall to make an absolutely spectacular catch to save two runs.

But still, with two out and a runner on 2nd, the Yankees weren't done. Jayson Nix doubled to score Granderson. Derek Jeter doubled to score Jason Nix, and Swisher singled to score Jeter. The Yankees were within striking distance, now behind 10-7. On came Darren Oliver who looked shaky, giving up a double to Teixiera and hitting Robinson Cano (I think on purpose) to load the bases for Andrus Jones, who grounded the ball to a waiting Yan Gomes at 3rd.

Oliver was much stronger in the 8th, striking out the first two before an easy ground ball to Kelly Johnson, who pinch hit for Hechavarria in the 7th.

Janssen came on and closed it with two hard line drives to Johnson who was positioned perfectly followed by an easy fly ball from Nick Swisher to end the game.

Some observations about the game. First, it was good to see Mike McCoy back in Toronto. A utility infielder, he does know how to hit major league hitting and I think puts some stability in the offense over Hechavarria. David Cooper and Moises Sierra can hit. With Adam Lind coming back, Cooper will likely be sidelined put perhaps they will at least leave him on the bench. I hope that Moises (3 for 5 today) gets more playing time but one of Gose or Sierra will be sent down once Bautista is back in a couple of weeks (but they'll only be down for a week as they'll be called up for the September expansion). Anthony Gose is still getting fooled at the plate, striking out on 2 of his four plate appearances. And finally, Rajai is earning a steady look in left for the season as he showed a flash of brilliance in left (which makes up for losing the ball in the lights on Friday night and then some) and tied his personal record of 5 RBIs. Edwin had a 3 for 5 night, short the triple in the cycle. And finally, it was surprising to see Brad Lincoln get roughed up for three runs, his worst outing as a reliever this season.

Now, Alex Rios and the AL Central leading White Sox come to town for four. The Jays will face Jake Peavy (9-8 3.08 ERA), Jose Quintana (4-2, 2.78 ERA), Gavin Floyd (8-9, 4.43 ERA), and Francisco Liriano (3-10, 5.35 ERA) who got roughed up in the last outing. The Jays will throw Villanueva, Alvarez, Romero, and Laffey in return. Adam Lind may return to the lineup, and we will likely see Colby Rasmus later in the week along with Yunel Escobar. I'm thinking that the Jays are in rough for the first two but can win the last two in the series for a nice series split before Texas comes to town.

It's an unrelenting schedule for the Jays, but with the pressure off, perhaps the Jays can take their time in recovering its stars and get the Las Vegasers some more plate appearances.

August 5: Jays 6, Oakland 5

Jays remember that they can win, earn happy plane ride to Tampa

To win games against the tough pitching Athletics, John Farrell's Jays realized that they had to manufacture runs. With Laffey on the mound with a tough start against Seattle, the Jays would probably be in tough against Oakland today, but with Milone on the mound who has been struggling over his past few starts, the Jays had a chance. And with the near comeback on Thursday, the extra-inning heartbreaker on Friday, and the extra inning win on Saturday, you could see the confidence in the new Blue Jays, short Lawrie, Rasmus, Bautista, Lind, Arencibia, and Snider slowly return.

As well, through the trades, the Jays have learned that they can count on their bullpen again, with the addition of Brad Lincoln and Stever Delabar and the promotion of Aaron Loup, the Jays starting pitcher just has to keep it close and let the bats try to get to work.

The Jays started it off as aggressive as you can get with a Davis double. On the next play, with Davis running on the pitch, Gose laid down a bunt down the 3rd baseline which was fielded by the catcher. Rajai kept on running and beat out the throw home to take a 1-0 lead.

Laffey had a shaky 2nd, with a combination of single-double for Oakland to tie the game. The third was even more shaky, as Laffey left a fastball up and in, right into Reddick's wheelhouse, yielding a 3 run home run, to be behind 4-1 after 3.

But the Jays closed the gap right away as Edwin found his power stroke again and belted a 2 run homer in the top of the fourth, then had some luck in the 5th inning with two out. Rajai Davis popped up a pretty routine fly ball to short, but Rosales lost the ball in the sun, allowing Davis to reach. The Jays capitalized as Gose (with his second hit in a row) double Rajai to third, and Edwin loaded the bases with an intentional pass. Yunel then hit a two run single to put the Jays out in front 5-4. Kelly Johnson then hit a single to plate Edwin. The Jays ended the top of the 5th up 6-4.

Laffey ended up pitching 6, giving up 6 runs, 4 runs (all earned), throwing 95 pitches, 67 of them strikes -- a decent outing. Brandon Lyon came on in the 7th and gave up a run on a double-double combination, striking out the side. With a 1 run lead, Loup and Delabar pitched the 8th and KC Janssen closed out the game, with Loup and Janssen each giving up a walk.

So, the Jays end up splitting the series with Oakland.


A few things happened with the roster behind the scenes. Chavez was sent back down and Chad Jenkins was called up from AA New Hampshire. Chad Jenkins, 25, over two years with the Fisher-Cats, is 10-16 with 36 starts with an ERA around 4.5 and WHIP around 1.4. He is a starter, but I am thinking that his role is a long reliever to replace Chavez. Villanueva, scheduled to start on Tuesday has a personal issue, so we will see JA Happ pitch against Tampa on Tuesday. There is setback with Bautista who felt more discomfort in his hands while swinging, which means that he'll need to rest his hands more and have rehab starts before he is back. Frasor is slowly working towards his return.

And finally, Farrell expects to see Lawrie and Rasmus playing in Tampa on Tuesday. Hechavarria will remain with the team.

For the hopelessly optimistic, the Jays are 5 back of the last wild card spot (Oakland) with 54 to play. At this point in time the wild card winner will have 88 wins. The Jays will need to pass (and have better records) Boston, Tampa, Baltimore, the Angels, and one of Detroit or Oakland to make the playoffs. That means the Jays will have to go 35-19 and pass 5 teams to make the wild card.

The Jays will face Shields, Cobb, and Matt Moore during the three game series. Matt Moore is running a streak of 17 scoreless innings, while Alex Cobb has had 2 good starts. I am thinking that the Jays will take 1 of 3 and it would be great to see them take 2 of three to have a fairly successful road trip.

August 3: Jays 4 Oakland 5

Brett Cecil serves home runs, Jays create drama in the 9th, keeps me awake

The Athletics of Oakland brought up their star AAA pitcher David Straily to make his major league debut against the struggling Blue Jays. The 23 year old from Springfield (home of the Simpsons), Oregon was a 24th round draft pick by the As back in 2009, and he made a name for himself, hailed as the pitcher with the most strike outs in all of baseball (he has 175 strikeouts in 138 innings). And given the Jays propensity to like to swing and their flailing offense as of late, it looked like another troublesome outing for the Jays.

There was hope that Cecil would be able to keep the ball in the yard tonight in pitching friendly Oakland but with three losses in a row and a complete lack of run support in his outings, things were not looking good on paper for the Jays. Then again, until the return of Bautista and Lind, things are not going to look good on paper for a while.

If I was betting, I'd take Oakland and the under.

Well, the game started off ominously enough, with Lawrie grabbing the bottom of his right rib cage in the top of the inning after fouling off a ball. He struck out, then took himself out of the game. The last thing the Jays need is another regular on the DL. Certainly, given his propensity to dive into television bays and be very intense, it isn't surprising (in fact, the hurt rib cage is due to his dive into same camera bay -- he is day to day).

Cecil looked promising enough in the 1st inning, facing the minimum. Then, Cecil gave up a single in the 2nd to Brandon Inge to score Cespedes from 3rd, but got out of the inning with a double play. Then in the third inning and fourth inning, Cecil gave up bases empty home runs to Johnny Gomes and Chris Carter. And in the the fifth, the As tacked an another through a sacrifice fly. Apparently, Gose didn't remember that Rasmus was the centerfielder that night and they ran into each other, both determined to attempt to throw out the runner at home (which at 320 feet out, isn't going to happen). Thankfully Rasmus caught the ball. The damage could have been much worse for Cecil, but three double plays were turned, two on the ground and one to finish the 5th as Mathis nailed Johnny Gomes trying to tag up on the throw. Cecil gave up 4 runs, all earned, over 5 innings. He gave up 9 hits, threw 66 pitches and struck out and walked one. I think Farrell gave up on Cecil after 5 despite his low pitch count so that they could keep the game close.

When Cecil leaves a fastball up, the As are all over it. That control problem is what kills Cecil. If he can keep the fastball down and away, he will be successful. It's that fastball left up over the zone that kills Cecil. Batters will tee that up every time because his fastball just isn't isn't fast enough to fool anyone.  

Straily looked very good, not great, but the Jays gave up when Mathis struck out (for the 2nd time) to finish the bottom of the fourth. Straily threw six innings, gave up 5 hits, struck out 5 and walked 1 over 102 pitches over six innings. The Jays strategy was to let him throw and see pitches, and Straily (understandably) was a little bit off, but he threw retired six in a row and struck out 4 of his last 7 outs. The Jays then went hitless in the 7th, 8th looking terrible against Balfour.

But then things fell apart for Oakland and closer Cook in the 9th. The Jays started the inning with two strikeouts and were clearly on the ropes. Then David Cooper and Rajai Davis singled, and it looked like things were over when the ump called back runners by calling a phantom foul ball when it was clearly a passed ball. This might have riled up Cook enough, as Mathis fought back from an 0-2 count and hit a home run just over the wall in left-center to tie the game. Wow. Cecil is off the hook for the loss.

Farrell put Oliver and Janssen on to pitch the perceived end of the game tonight to give them a little bit of work as they hadn't pitched in over a week. Janssen came on to pitch a 1-2-3 ninth, tossing a beautiful cutter to freeze Derek Norris in a full count to end the frame.

Brad Lincoln came on in the 10th and struck out the first hitter, with a nasty slider. But a single to Weeks and a walk with one out, followed by a wild pitch forced Lincoln to load the bases and hit to a dangerous Josh Reddick, who struck out. With two out, Brandon Moss grounded out to Escobar, who bounced the throw to first, making Yan Gomes (on for Cooper) make a terrific play to record the game-saving out.

The Jays did nothing hitting in the extra frames, except for the 12th with a one out single by Visquel followed by a double by Colby Rasmus, but Omar, running 270 feet, got thrown out at home despite the ball getting away from the the left fielder who normally plays first base. Johnson grounded out to end the inning in the 4-4 tie. Then, Colby was taken out of the game in the bottom of the 12th presumably for some type of injury, (the groin), forcing the pitcher to bat in Colby's batting position.

Lincoln pitched a flawless 11th, 12th, or 13th, perhaps making the Jays fandom feel a bit lighter about the trade, because you know a Cordero, Coello, Beck, or Frasor would have blown the game in the 10th or 11th. Very very nice.

But it was the 15th inning that did the Jays in. With Loup on the mound, Jamal Weeks hit a lead off triple to right, and Coco Crisp sac flied him home.

It was a very close call for the Jays, but I wonder if it is more demoralizing to lose a hard fought game in extras versus losing in regulation play.

The official injury report on Rasmus is that he is day-to-day with a strained groin. Lawrie's injury is related to his dive into the camera bay a couple of weeks ago -- ribcage pain, and he is day-to-day as well and not expected to be in the line-up.

The Jays need to bring in JA Happ to the rotation and send down one of the starters to long relief or back to AAA. Whether that is Cecil, Villanueva, or Laffey I am not sure. Happ has not been very good this year but should be the #5 starter. Many people point out that he was traded to be a starter, not a reliever, and Happ is needed to eat innings.

So, in the overnight, the Jays made a few calls to Vegas. Cecil indeed was moved down to Vegas to make room for Happ to enter the starting rotation, probably making a start on Thursday against Tampa. Andrew Carpenter, who wasn't being used, was also sent down to Vegas. Up came Chavez who will replace JA Happ in a long relief role.  I think it was a good move to move Cecil who just wasn't doing well and is the worst starter in the rotation right now. Don't expect Happ to be fantastic, though.

More exciting is the callup of Hechavarria who will replace Brett Lawrie at 3rd base. It was an interesting choice for the Jays but with only Visquel able to play the middle infield, the Jays wanted to get a look at his arm and his bat at the MLB level. Good luck, Adeiny! Anothopoulos calls his arm one of the best in baseball, and his hitting line in AAA for 2012 is .312 / .363 / .424 with 20 doubles, 6 triples, and 6 home runs -- not a power hitter. But with a full season of AAA experience, now is a good time to bring him up.

Well, today's lineup will look interesting. The only regulars left on the team are Yunel and Kelly Johnson. Likely the infield will consist of Hechavarria, Escobar, Johnson, and Cooper. Mathis will be behind the plate. It will be Gose, Davis, and Moises in the outfield. The bench is shortened to Gomes and Visquel, with Encarnacion DHing.

The key to the Jays winning now is to manufacturing a few runs and having a spectacular pitching performance. After the injuries to the pitching staff, the Jays needed an average of 6 runs a game to win. The Jays right now with the line up they have are highly unlikely to score many runs, so it is going to take spectacular pitching to win games.