Anthopoulos' state of the obvious

The Jays will get better?



Anthopoulos' career ending mistake? Certainly, not a brilliant move.

Expectations for the 2013 Blue Jays were hyped. With no hockey in the fall and Anthopoulos's moves with the jump in payroll, Torontonians, no Canadians, were hyped up to see Canada's baseball team go to the playoffs, and maybe the World Series.

Instead, the Maples Leafs are going to the playoffs, and the 2013 rendition of the Blue Jays have a very long road ahead of them even to reach .500.

So Anthopoulos met with the media today and made the following severely presiced comments: I'm disappointed, but it will get better. It has to.

The long form of the message is that the individual records of each of these players won't allow this team to continue along this path indefinitely. The starting pitching staff should have an ERA of below 4, and hopefully, it should be around 3.8 or 3.7. Certain offensive players should have on-base percentages much higher than they have: Bonificio, Izturis, Bautista, Melky, and even Colby. The defense should get better.

It just has to, right? Not necessarily.

One has to look at WHY the team, collectively, started off as poorly as they did.

Starting pitching

Mark Buehrle, though Mr. Reliable has had bouts of poor pitching. In five starts with the Marlins last year (July 19 - August 10), he went 0-3, pitched 26.1 innings, let in 24 earned runs, and was terrible. Over the final 8 starts, he averaged 6.9 innings per start with a 3.58 ERA. So let's not worry about Mark Buehrle.

RA Dickey's slow start (4.50 ERA) is not unique to him either. Last year, from June 24 to July 24, over 6 start (+ 1 extra inning pitched), he had a 5.36 ERA over 40 innings and a WHIP of about 1.4.

Brandon Morrow's start is not too far out of line with 2011 so far, but we're still waiting for him to have a stellar start where he goes deep into the game.

And Josh Johnson has had bad periods of time, with a 6.61 ERA over his first six starts as a Marlin last year.

But four out of five doing poorly together? What's up with that? Coincidence?

The offense

Even with Maicer's recent hitting spurt, both he and Bonifacio are both having their worst months in their MLB career, together, at the same time.

We know that Adam Lind and Colby can be inconsistent at the plate. Colby's strikeout rate, however, at 45% is very disturbing. And while there are have been short spurts in his career where his strike out rate was 40%, this is unprecented.
Jose Bautista has started off his season horribly. He has yet to have a multi-hit game. His strikeout rate is over 25% and there wasn't a stretch of games last year where he struck out as much. But he had a 25 game stretch last year where he bat .146 / .284 / .270 at the beginning of the year (except the first game). At least this year he's hitting home runs. He warmed up last year and there no reason to expect anything differently this year.

Melky has started the season hitting .250 / .303 / .300 and while he had a stretch of 18 games last year early on when he bat .231 / .301 / .308. But Melky is just lacking power, and it's troubling .You can expect that for missing 2 months of the season last year, and there seems to be no sign that he won't be doing worse.

Brett Lawrie will come around. Edwin will be fine. JP Arencibia is striking out alot too (at just below 40%), but he has done that before and been an acceptable hitter, especially for a catcher. He's hitting for power and that's all that can be asked of him.

But once against, why is all of this poorness all coming together? Is this coincidence too?

 

John Gibbons

John Gibbons was fired after the Milwaukee series in June 2008. The team went through a 4-13 run falling 7.5 games back in the standings from being 3 games to 10.5 games back. 8 of those 13 games losses were one run losses, including 3 walk-offs and 1 come from behind and 2 late loss ties. The team was 10-19 in one run games. In his last game in Milwaukee, down 8-1, the team stormed back in the top of the ninth with one on and two out to score six runs, falling short 8-7 and seal Gibbons' fate.

In 2008, despite the .279 BA, the team produced around 4 runs per game. Run production suffered dearly under Gibbons.

Sound familiar?

So I wondering what kind of job John Gibbons is doing, and whether Alex Anthopoulos will do the same thing that JP Ricciardi felt like he had to do: fire John Gibbons.

Looking back at the Miked up blog entries (Mike Wilner's daily writings on the Blue Jays) from 2008, it's pretty clear that some major similarities are happening: run production was a huge issue and the Jays are finding ways to lose, especially late in the game by one run. Why?

Is it beyond luck? Baseball at this level is simply more than about numbers. It's about momentum, spirit, and team.

And with so many players performing below average at the same time, you just feel like it has to do with the coaching staff more than coincidence. And given that this has happened before with the same manager, you have to wonder...

Lineups are changing every day. That has to be a bit disconcerting to the players. Yes, the players are to blame, too, but you can't fire the team. The bullpen is doing fine, and they're not on the bench. I really think that this team is quite down right now, and needs an inspirational leader to lead them through. When the team starts performing poorly collectively, it's up to the managerial staff to fix the problem.

Gibbons doesn't have that capability. He didn't in 2008, and nothing sugggests that he does now, unlike Joe Girardi, who can take a team with severe injuries and put together a winner. Unlike Buck Showalter who has found a way for his Orioles to win a bunch of 1 run games and make the playoffs. Unlike Joe Maddon, and now, perhaps, unlike John Farrell.

The team has got to get better. But will it?

Holy Resurrection! John Gibbons redux

Fired manager returns to the Blue Jays

Anthpolous and Gibbons in the ceremonial jersey giveaway
Rene Johnson / TorStar

Everyone in the baseball world was taken aback by the hiring of John Gibbons as the new manager of the Blue Jays. Even John Gibbons himself seemed to be out of words when he spoke of his hiring. And clearly, as much as when Cito's rehiring was out of the blue, this hiring was as well. Reviews of the hiring have been mixed, with an overwhelmingly positive bias in Toronto but a negative bias elsewhere.

In my opinion, Gibbons had his chance to manage the Jays and he failed. He went to a bench coach for the Royals for 3+ seasons and then ended up managing the AA San Antonio Missions last year.

The Jays and those who are happy about the hiring gloss the incidents with Hillenbrand and Ted Lilly. And there are probably other incidents out there that were unreported as well. His record as manager was 305-305, but his record should have been better than it was. Whether that's due to poor managing or bad luck is unclear, but his pythagorean win-loss should have been led to more actual wins.

2006 was by far his most successful year. With five regulars batting .300+ and nine players with an OPS over .800, (Overbay, Glaus, Catalanotto, Wells, Rios, Hillenbrand, Reed Johnson, Zaun!, and Hinske), and Roy Halladay, AJ Burnett and Lilly on the mound, the Jays were indeed formidable, and they wound up 87-75 but finished well out of a playoff spot 8 games back of the Detroit Tigers.

2007 should have been a better year for the Jays. They ended up 83-79, but the hitting went significantly downhill and the pitching went significantly better.

But 2008 is telling. The Jays started under Gibbons going 35-37 and finally, in Milwaukee, Gibbons was unceremoniously fired and replaced with Cito Gaston, who had a very veteran friendly management style. After that point in time, the Jays went 51-37 and despite an 86 win season, finished 4th in the AL.

People point out that Gibbons knew how to manage a bullpen. My experience is that he pulled pitchers too soon. The pythagorean win-loss was always higher than the actual results, and usually, I attribute that result to managing over pure luck.

And while the Hillenbrand battle might have been necessary, the Lilly one was not. Clearly both player and manager might have been frustrated blowing an 8 run lead in the 3rd inning, but the end result of a fight in the dugout tunnel was not the correct result.

And no one hired Gibbons once he was gone. His career went downhill. There are far more successful managers with colorful histories, such as Billy Martin, who could both get into fights and successfully manage a team. And there are other experienced managers out there who were capable of managing the club.

So, while the Sportsnet and some other Toronto outlets paints this in a positive light, I just can't. this guy is just mediocre, at best. 

People who are negative on the deal state that management really can't affect wins and losses anyway, and I don't buy that. Managers make critical decisions in lineups, bullpen matchups, pinch hitters and runners, defensive shifts, steals, hit and runs, and other in-game decisions.

Cito, for example, never used the running game and favored his veterans, while Farrell used stealth and the running game to generate runs. That is why the Jays did so well in converting runs despite the poor batting average and OBP. In another example, Farrell utilized the defensive shift extensively in order to save runs, and as a result, the Jays finished 2nd in MLB in defensive runs saved.

I'm not sure Gibbons managed his lineup very well either. In 2006, it was pretty consistent, in that the lineup usually was Johnson - Catalenotto - Wells - Glaus - Overbay at the start of the line up and Hill / McDonald-Adams at the bottom of the lineup.

But in 2007, the lineup was a hodgepodge. Rios - Wells - Johnson at the top of the order and just an irregular lineup throughout. I wonder how the players performed as a result of that. Well, it seemed like the team just couldn't put it together hitting-wise in 2007 as Wells, Overbay, and Johnson had significantly worse seasons.

It will be interesting to see what Gibbons brings to the table in 2013. He has been given alot of tools. The team has already pretty agreed that the top four of the lineup will be Reyes - Cabrera - Bautista - Encarnacion, with Lind, Lawrie, Rasmus, Arencibia (Buck), and Bonafacio / Izturis wrapping the lineup. Of course with Lind, Rasmus, and Arencibia being inconsistent, that part of the order will undoubtably change. Gibbons clearly has the tenacity to move the lineup around based on performance and will undoubtably ruffle sensitive feathers (think Rasmus) in doing so.

Certainly, Gibbons personality is much much different than Farrell. John Farrell seems to be an accountant out there, uncomfortable with his emotions, very much under control and not really having the ability to manage a large group of players. Gibbons on the other hand, even by this press conference, seems to be quite emotional and passionate. The players will need to get used to his style of leadership and passion.

It will be interesting to see how Gibbons manages the running game with speed being an incredible weapon this year with Reyes, Bonafacio, and Davis on the team (and Gose late in the summer). Both Gibbons and Gaston underutilized the running game, while Farrell might have overexploited it. I expect to see Rajai stay put a fair bit more and expect to see alot more discipline on the basepaths. Still, I hope to see about 120 stolen bases in total from the club next year, with Bonafacio, Reyes and Davis leading the pack. I hope to see Davis utilized late in the game for running speed especially if a Lind, Rasmus, or Arencibia gets on base.

It will also be interesting to see how Gibbons utlilizes the defensive shift, which John Farrell used extensively in 2012.

Who will Gibbons bring to him as coaches? Don Wakamatsu (bench), Dwayne Murphy (hitting), Bruce Walton (pitching), Rivera, and Walker (bullpen) remain on the club right now.

I suspect that only Bruce Walton will remain (he was bullpen coach under Gibbons), but that Murphy and Wakamatsu might be gone. That wouldn't be terrible news. Wakamatsu was fired from the Mariners reportedly for a fracas between him and Figgins. Who will Gibbons will bring in as base coaches. Will the Jays see Ernie Whitt return as bench coach? Maybe see Roberto Alomar on the field as a base coach? With Anthopoulos at the helm, one never knows, but in the press conference, he promised an answer in the next couple of weeks.

Well, the transformation seems to be mostly complete. The Jays have depth at catching which I think they'll use to hire their final bench player, another starter, or even an experienced 2nd baseman. The AAA minor league seems sufficiently stocked in the outfield with Gose, Sierra, Perales, and Nanita. D'Arnaud will catch. Hughes, McCoy, Goins/Woodward, and Cooper will be in the infield. The pitching staff will be a mixed bag to be sure, but expect Jenkins to start in AAA.

The "why" behind Anthopolous' move is pretty clear. Anthopolous, in securing the mega-deal and hiring a manager he knows quite well, is pretty much putting the season and the success of the Jays on his shoulders. By hiring someone who is a known, Anthopolous cannot blame anyone else but himself if the Jays do not succeed next year. He's putting that on himself, and that's an admirable thing.

What's clear is that there are more moves to come as this crazy off-season continues.

Rogers bets Mayan civilization was right as it opens pursestrings

Christmas/Chanukah comes early for Blue Jays fans

What an off-season it has been, and it's only mid-November.

At the end of the season, I lamented that the Jays would limp into next season and would perhaps get their payroll up to $100 million next year. They would sign a couple of mediocre pitching talents,  maybe resign Villanueva to get the #5 starter, and get a mediocre 2nd baseman to replace Johnson (who will sign somewhere) and shop for an good LF to replace Davis/Gose/Thames/Snider.

I said that Rogers wouldn't spend money, that they have budgets to maintain and that they have to show a profit, and that Anthopolous (the economist) and Rogers (the conservative wireless giant) was too conservative to put a splash in the market.

Fans were lamenting about how lame their Blue Jays would be next year, and with no NHL going on, much more attention is being given to the Jays because well, the media needs to fill space, though the Argonauts are helping.

And up until the beginning of last week, things didn't look great. Farrell and half of the coaching staff was stolen by those bloody Red Sox for Aviles. Davis and Oliver were re-signed and for some reason Davis accepted $500K less than his option. Fans were frustrated that the new manager was not filled. To Cleveland went Gomes and Aviles for Esmil Rogers who had a successful stint in Cleveland and stunk in Colorado.

In came minor leaguers Jeremy Jeffress, Neil Germano, and Bobby Korecky. A minor splash was made in signing Izturis, who is defensively a substandard choice to replace Kelly Johnson and offensively is consistent and can switch hit (quite comfortably). I think he will do well if he can get regular play.

Still, not a heck of alot going on in the Blue Jays camp, and with managers to hire and with holes to fill at pitcher, utility infield / 2B, and LF, fans felt a great deal of miscontent as the off season started. With no NHL on, it was pretty easy to focus on baseball.

I was wrong.

And don't forget folks, we're only at 16 days since players declared their free agency!

So, imagine the shock when the epic trade was announced. Out went Escobar, the maligned, homophobic (well, perhaps not homophobic), boneheaded shortshop who really didn't mature in Toronto as we might have expected. Out went Hechavarria, the young promising shortstop who I am sure will dazzle defensively if he can get his bat working (and there is no reason to suggest he wouldn't). Out went Henderson Alvarez, the two pitch #5 pitcher (who was promoted to #2 this year thanks to injuries). Out went Jeff Mathis, who while defensively superior to JP, was just awful at the plate. And off went excellent prospects in Jake Marisnick, Justin Nicolino, and Anthony DeSclafani.

DeSclafani boasted a 3.38 ERA and a WHIP of 1.382 in Lansing over 21 starts and is at least two years away from the Majors. Nicolino is a lot more promising, with a 2.33 ERA and a WHIP of 1.070 over 28 starts. Expect to see him in the majors in 2014. And Jake Marisnick may have panned out for the Blue Jays, but with Gose and Sierra in AAA Buffalo and already showing capability in the majors, the depth chart might have been a bit too murky for him. Jake did not have a great end of year in New Hampshire, but if he does well, you might expect to see him in 2014 as well.

To me, Hechavarria was the biggest downside to this trade. In his last 29 games (27 started), there was only 3 games that he did not record a hit, and his line was .287 / .309 / .415. Defensively, he is great, a potential gold-glover, especially in his position as shortstop. This guy I think will be a starting major league shortshop for a long time, and I think he has much more potential than Jose Reyes and certainly Yunel.

On the flip side, the Jays brought in (from worst to best):

John Buck: His career year was in Toronto in 2010, when he hit .281 / .314 / .489. If he stays on the club and doesn't get flipped, he will be platooning with JP Arencibia. Travis D'Arnaud will at least start the year in Buffalo as he proves out his rehab. I expect that one of JP, Wilson or John Buck will be flipped during the off-season and I hope it's not Arencibia. Arencibia showed great defensive improvement in 2012 and his bat was just smoking before his injury in late July, going .321 /.356 / .714 over 18 games. If Buck can maintain a .300 OBP, he will have some value for the Jays. For $6M I am not sure if the Jays can trade him away.

Emilio Bonifacio: This guy is true utility. Over 393 games started, he's started 141 games in the outfield, 116 games at 3rd, 81 at short, and 65 at 2nd. Defensively, he is decent, but he didn't get much infield experience last year. He could be a utility infielder to backup Izturis or Brett Lawrie. He is definitely a fourth outfielder, and perhaps even a 3rd outfielder if Colby has another crappy year. His utility is his speed and his switch hitting bat. With 101 stolen base opportunities last year, he stole 30 bases (caught 3 times). Compare that to Rajai who stole 46 bases in 118 opporunities (but got caught 13 times). I'm happy about this guy.

Mark Buehrle: This guy is a pure workhorse with 200+ inning years for the last 12 years. Yes, he will be 34 next year and will be paid $11M (and $18M in 2014, $19M in 2015). But the guy is a dependable, sub 4 ERA, sub 1.3 WHIP, golden-gloved pitcher. He will be the Jays' consistent #3 starter for the next couple of years. He will take the pressure off of Romero, who is no longer going to be the ace of the club. There is simply no downside to this southpaw besides his age.

Josh Johnson: The Jays will pay Johnson $13.75M next year. In his comeback year after Tommy John, he threw 191 innings with an ERA of 3.82 and a WHIP of 1.28. If he comes back to form and pitches like he did in 2010, the Jays will find themselves with a bona fide ace. The guy doesn't give up home runs. He can strike people out at the rate of 8.2/9. He has power pitches in his fastball, slider, curve and changeup). His problem of course is injury. If he can have an injury-free year, he will impress with better stats than last year. Wow.

Jose Reyes: The Jays have acquired an all star and bonafide lead-off hitter. He has career splits of .287 / .347 / .433, playing in all but two games last year. Defensively, he is an average shortstop. But his strikeout rate is among the lowest in MLB (around 10% through his career), meaning that he is going to put alot of balls in play. This sets up nicely in the AL, where he can reliably complete a hit-and-run and is ideal for putting speed at the bottom of the order in Bonifacio, Rajai, or even Brett Lawrie. And this guy is consistently good. Yes, there are injury concerns -- Reyes will play 90 games on turf (81 at home + 9 in Tampa) which might be hard on him. But he is in the prime of his career, and Rogers is paying big bucks for him: 10 million for 2013, $16M for 2014, and $22M for the three years after. And once again, this is a switch hitter, equally able to hit from both sides.

And finally, last but, certainly not least, the Jays signed testosterone laden Melky Cabrera. The Melk Man stands to earn $8 million next year and will be the starting left-fielder, filling a hole that was never filled in Thames, Snider, Davis, Sierra, Gose, and even Adam Lind. The $8 million question is "which Melky is going to show up?" It's hard to tell what impact Cabrera's PED taking had on his stats. Perhaps he will be the Kansas City version with a .305 / .339 / .470 line. But he might turn out to be the Yankee Cabrera (or worst yet the Braves Cabrera) with a .264 / .321 / .377 line over four seasons.  Certainly, if the Cabrera who shows up is that version, the Jays got a bum deal. But Rogers and the Jays won't know until they try. Once again, Melky offers great switch-hitting stats, hitting pretty much equally from both sides. And he will have another fresh start in Toronto. Let's hope it's a good one.

So, the Jays have put it all on the table. Last year, the Jays were able to attract 12% more fans per game over 2011. There was alot of excitement at the beginning of the season with the fantastic spring training and the youth of the team.

So what's left to fill? The Jays' payroll is now inflated to over $120 million. The starting lineup now looks like:

Reyes 6 (.295 / .342 / .440)
Cabrera 7 (.295 / .328 / .432)
Bautista 9 (.259 / .377 / .528)
Encarnacion  DH/3  (.271 / .359 / .504)
Lind 3 (vs RHP) (.272 / .329 / .460)
Lawrie 5 (.289 / .342 / .465)
Rasmus 8 (.237 / .312 / .427)
Arencibia / Buck 2 (.232 / .278 / .451)  / (.219 / .298 / .384)
Izturis / Bonafacio 4 (.267 /  .333 / .360) (.275 / .336 / .350)

The lines above are predicted by Bill James and are available here.

On the bench is Rajai Davis. But then who is the final person on the bench? Looking at the roster, perhaps David Cooper might be a fit to play 1st or DH against LHP. Or perhaps it's going to be Moises or Gose, both who really aren't ready.

On the pitching side, the starting rotation now looks like Johnson, Morrow, Buehrle, Romero, and Happ. The bullpen consists of Oliver, Santos, Janssen, Delabar, Lincoln, and two of Jenkins, Perez, Loup, Cecil, and on the outside Jeffress and Rogers.

Certainly the Jays will be an exciting group next year. They are much faster with the legs of Davis / Reyes and Izturis or Bonifacio. The #1 and #2 hitters are huge upgrades over last year.

But why?

Why did Rogers spend the money? Well, the reason is many fold, I think.

First, next year, all teams are going to receive an extra $28 million dollars in revenue from revenue sharing due to renegotiated TV contracts. All teams will therefore spend much more in 2014, players will become more expensive, and therefore the $20 million or so in extra outlay is a one year expense. The Jays would have budgeted $120M in 2014 anyway, because they were already going to spend $100M this year and will receive a boost of $28M in 2014. It seems reasonable to jump the gun this year. Rogers also received $36 million (according to the Globe and Mail, a number that Beeston denies) in TV revenue from SportsNet last year according to Forbes and that number only stands to grow.

Secondly, the Jays now know that the fans react to a good team on the field. Attendance numbers jumped 15% last year before settling down to 2011 levels when the team's injuries put them out of reach for contention. TV and radio numbers were also great. So, putting the talent on the field will fill seats, and bring in more TV and stadium revenue. And with no hockey in town -- yet -- the Jays fans are paying very close attention.

Finally, there was a promise from Beeston made to his season ticket holders at the State of the Franchise meeting in January of this year: "In the next five years, I would expect that we would be in it two to three times," Beeston said. With his contract up for renewal, it was time to make that splash.

Forbes makes an interesting point. Sabermetrics points out that each WAR costs about $4 million on the free trade market. Anthopolous in this set of trades paid $56 million for a 16.8 WAR or about 3.2 million per point: cheap.

Certainly, the excitement for the Jays is now there. The money's been spent, and the fandom is reenergized.

Now, time to hire a manager.

Why Villanueva should be a Blue Jay next year

The Jays I hope will Carlos Villanueva.It's just a matter of Carlos reconciling what his value is and Alex Anthopoulos to convince the Jay to remain in Toronto. 


Carlos throws in Tampa (Getty Images)

 Carlos believes that he can be a big league starter next year and wants the commensurate salary to match. A big league starter needs to be able to throw 200 innings and he of course believes that he has the arm to do it.

The facts bely the belief. Carlos has been up and down through his years at Milwaukee and Toronto and does not have the experience nor proven arm to command a starter's salary. The Brewers ended his attempt to become a long-term starter in spring training of 2007, and since that, Carlos has not pitched the number of innings required nor has he been consistent enough to be an opening day starter.

Carlos Villanueva is 28 years old and debuted with the Brewers in 2006. He was drafted as an amateur free agent by the Giants in 2002 and was traded to the Brewers in the 2003-4 offseason. Carlos brewed in A and AA ball as a starter in 2004 and 2005, doing fairly decently (ERA under 3.5, WHIP of about 1.1).

In 2006, he was promoted from AA to AAA Nashville for the Brewers organization, where he had, as a starter, an ERA of 3.22 and a WHIP of 1.104 with 120Ks in 129 innings pitched. He got called up to the Brewers, pitched 54 more innings for Milwaukee, making spot starts in June and September, posting a respectable 3.69 ERA, a WHIP of 1, and struck out 39. So, in 2006, he pitched 182 1/3 innings total and looked to be on track to be a long term starter.

But the Brewers elected to make Carlos a reliever in 2007, being beat out for the #5 spot in the rotation by Claudio Vargas. Villanueva was an adequate middle reliever, throwing 114 innings, posting an average 3.94 ERA with a WHIP of 1.35. Carlos I am sure saw that year as a step backwards in his career, as did many who were following his career at the time. As it turns out, most of the Milwaukee starting crew did not do very well, as Milwaukee finished the season 83-79, 2 games back of the Cubs in the NL Central. The starters posted a 4.55 ERA and a WHIP of 1.422, not very good, and certainly not enough to go far in the playoffs had they made it. Carlos did start a few games, especially late in the season. But still, the threw 114 innings in 2007, a step back.

Carlos continued to work the bullpen in 2008, and while he started off poorly (5.40 ERA through the end of June), he finished the season working to a 1.87 ERA and a WHIP just over 1, with 43Ks. He seemed to have found his form in the 2nd half of 2008. Still, he threw only 108 innings, posted an ERA of 4.07 and a WHIP of 1.367.

In 2009, Carlos was used even less, starting only 6 games and tossing 96 innings, posting an ERA of 5.34 with a WHIP of 1.427, posting a very disappointing 4-10 record. Four of his six starts ended up with Carlos letting in 4 or more earned runs and never making it past the 6th inning.

In 2010, Carlos took another step backwards, getting demoted to AAA Nashville in August and September, throwing a total of about 64 innings. His demotion was due to having a minor league option. Still an ERA of 4.61 and WHIP of 1.33 was not awful.

Carlos was traded to the Jays in the 2010 offseason (for a player to be named) and started pitching in the pen for the Jays as a middle-reliever with Luis Perez's left-handed arm. And Carlos started off very very well, posting a 1.48 ERA over 13 appearances. and an WHIP of about 0.83. And because of Jesse Litsch's poor performance (4.66 ERA, WHIP over 1.4), the Jays elected to inject Carlos in the rotation and send Litsch down to the minors and turn him into a rather ineffective middle reliever. And Carlos was very good as a starter but got worse as the season went on. Over 12 starts, he posted an ERA of 4.33, striking out 41 over 70.2 innings and a WHIP about 1.3. But his arm gave out on his 13th start and he left the game in Tampa giving up 8 runs over 2 2/3rds innings. He was put on the DL with a forearm strain, and began a rehab assignment down in Vegas. He was used sparingly in September, appearing 7 times, throwing 9.1 innings of work, and did well. He earned 1.4 million in 2011.

Villanueva, in 2012, (now earning 2.3 million) began the season once again in the bullpen with Perez as the alternate as the starting rotation was set. Carlos did very well as the Jays middle reliever, throwing 33.1 innings over 22 appearances, with a 3.24 ERA and a WHIP of over 1.4, but striking out 36 and giving up 5 home runs. Really, in the 22 appearances, he had only 5 where he let in runs, with only 1 negatively affecting the outcome of the game (vs Minnesota May 11).

Pressed into service through injuries to Morrow, Hutchinson, and Drabek, Carlos became a starter again, pitching at home to the Angels on June 29th. Over the first 11 starts, he was very good, pitching deeper into the games, posting an ERA of 3.03, a WHIP of 1.1, and striking out 1 per inning, throwing 64% of his pitches for strikes.

Now, in two of his past four starts, he hasn't been very good, letting in 6 runs against Baltimore on September 4th and blowing his start at Tampa on Friday.

So, the fandom are demanding to sign him and that he will be the team's saviour next season. The Jays fans are delusional of course. There are reasons why any team would be reluctant to sign Villanueva.

First, 2012 has been by far his best season with the most innings pitched, the most number of starts, his best ERA, his best WHIP, the highest number of strikeouts (by far). It's the perfect time to advertise yourself when you are having your best season. That said, he may be peaking, and that's a risk.

Second, Villanueva has indicated that he will be very unhappy in the bullpen and has stated that he is looking to be a starter and command the salary as a starter as a free agent. That means that Carlos will say "no" to any salary where he will be part of the bullpen. This means that any team that ends up signing him will be risking salary.

Thirdly, Carlos has not completed a full season as a starter, and when he has started a number of games in a row, his arm has succumbed to injury, such as it did in 2011, and what is happening now. If Carlos makes his next two starts, he will have pitched around 132 innings in 2012. His cap in innings NEXT year will be about 170 and the year after 220. At 170 innings, Carlos will only be be able to pitch until the end of August, at the latest if he starts every scheduled start, and that's a risk.

A club that's desparate for starters or with an open bankroll might end up taking that risk.

I purport that Anthopoulos should take that risk, reason with Villanueva that he WILL start next season, but offer a 3-4 year escalating contract based on the risk involved in signing him. 
Carlos is well known to the Jays and is pitching well in Toronto. He has proven starts. If he signs, Anthopoulos will only need to sign one free agent in the offseason to complete the rotation. Carlos Villanueva's arm will last him to the return of Kyle Drabek or to the trade deadline should the Jays compete. Anthopoulos has the best relationship with Villanueva and his agents, and will be able to reason with Carlos to sign a reasonable deal that takes that risk into account.

It's a win-win. Villanueva remains a Jay, and he starts the season, knowing that he will be replaced in mid-August. He commands a better salary as a starter and starts for up to 5 months next year, and works out for the following year for the full term. And, Villanueva won't get dickered around by other teams and doesn't get demoted the the bullpen as he did in Milwaukee. Anthopoulos only needs to shop for one free agent pitcher in the offseason (hopefully a very strong free agent), and can leave Jenkins and Alvarez to potentiate in AAA or to be used in cases of emergency. A starting rotation of Romero - Morrow - Happ - Villaneuva - and Free agent will be decent enough for the Jays to compete. 

So, let's get him signed. He needs the Jays as much as the Jays need him.

Would the Jays be contending now but for the injuries?

Could the Jays have won 4 more games of the last 29 with an intact lineup? Sure. Does that make them a contender? Maybe.

Listening to Wilner's the Blue Jays talk last night, Wilner believed that "absolutely, the team would be contending right now" if the Jays were not injured. He stated that since the Jays lost Bautista, the team went 11-18.

Let's say that instead of 11-18, they went 15-14. Where would they be in the standings today? On July 16, the Jays were 45-45 (now 56-63), and they were two games back of Detroit (47-43) for the remaining wildcard spot.

Okay, without Bautista, they got swept by the Yankees, but then swept the Boston Red Sox. On Sunday, July 22, the Jays were 48-47, but three games out of a wild card behind the Orioles at 51-44. It's safe to say that the results in the Bronx would not have changed as the Jats lost 6-0 and 6-1. Bautista's bat would not have been a factor.

For the Oakland series at home, July 25th was the last day that we saw Adam Lind and JP Arencibia. The Jays missing those three in the line up would have had no effect on the outcome (The Jays sans Bautista would not have come back from a 8 run disaster by Romero nor a 7-2 decision the day before). So at the end of the Oakland series at home on July 26 (a game that they won), the Jays record was 49-49, 4 games back of Oakland for the final wild card spot. No change to the Jays record thus far purely due to injuries in the starting lineup.

The Jays then won two of three against the Tigers on the weekend series and lost 4-1 on the Sunday game with Cecil pitching against Fister. Without Arencibia, Lind and Bautista, it's safe to say that this loss still would have happened -- the Jays only threatened in the 3rd and 4th inning in this game and the batters up were regulars. So as of July 29, the Jays record is still unchanged at 51-50, 4 games back of the Angels for the final wild card spot.

So, let's be clear. Before the road trip to the west coast, on July 30th, the Jays were 4 games out a playoff spot with a record of 51-50, and there are no games that the Jays really would have won with Bautista, Lind, and Arencibia in the lineup. They either lost by too many runs or weren't due in the lineup to comeup in situations with runners on base.

Anthopoulos therefore would have made the same moves at the trade deadline.

The West Coast has always been particularly hard on the Jays, and with the trade of Snider, the offense really started to lag at this point, and with the Jays without Arencibia, Lind, Bautista, and now Snider out of the lineup, it's safe to say that perhaps the Jays would have won the finale (which they lost 5-3) as there were many opportunities for the Jays but the wrong bats were up. Seattle had just come off of a sweep of Kansas and were playing well. Still, the Jays should have won one game in Seattle. This puts the Jays at 52-52 going into Oakland for the four game series, now games back of Oakland.

So, now the Jays in Oakland and in the first game they lost 4-1 against Alvarez. Cooper went 1-3 (in place of Lind, Gose went 1-4 in place of Bautista, and Gomes went 0-4). Perhaps two hits would have been added by the senior jays. I think they could have won this game as they were threatening a few times where Bautista / Arencibia would have been at bat instead of Gose / Gomes. The Jays win this one if their line up was intact.

The August 3rd game was the 15 inning affair where the Jays lost Lawrie and Rasmus and was the breaking point truly for this team. Still, I will put this in the loss column for the Jays just because I don't think the Jays get out of Oakland with less than one loss. So the Jays go 3-1 in Oakland instead of 2-2, and the Jays are 55-53 out of Oakland (Oakland is then 57-51). This puts the Jays two game out of a wild card spot going into Tampa.

Tampa has never been good to the Jays (7 years since they won a series there), so I am going to put them 1-2 in the series instead of 0-3 (I think the Jays beat Cobb on the Wednesday night game). Jays are 56-55 out of Tampa (who are then 58-53) and are still only three games back of the wild card spot.

Time for a reality check -- It's reasonable that the Jays would go 5-5 on the road. Oakland did not play very well, and the Jays should have taken that series. And winning 2 of 6 against Seattle and Tampa is reasonable.

The Jays then go home to face the Yankees in last weekend's series sans Lawrie, Rasmus, Bautista, Arencibia, and Lind. The Yankees would have won the opener anyway as they won 10-4. The Jays probably don't take Saturday's game either. So, the result of this series remains the same at 1-2. Jays would by 57-57 after New York, 4 games back of a wild card (Tampa would be 61-53, Baltimore 62-53). Also ahead of Toronto: Oakland (60-54), Detroit (61-54) and the Angels (60-55).

This takes us to the current series. It's safe to say I think that the Jays win Tuesday night's game (they lost 3-2) as they were threatening several times and couldn't convert. This puts the Jays right now going into tonight's game at 59-58, 5 games back of Baltimore, 3 back of Tampa (62-55), 2.5 back of Detroit (63-55), 1.5 back of the Angels (62-56) and 1/2 game back of Oakland (60-56).

So, without the injuries, I beleive that the Jays get one win back from each of Seattle, Oakland, Tampa, and Chicago. Instead of the Jays being 55-62, they are 59-58, three games back of a wild card. And I think that this number is bang on. They were .500 going into the Baustista injury and the improvements that the team made at the deadline would not have drastically improved this number.

At the trade deadline, Anthopoulos gave up on the Jays by not adding a good (sorry, Happ) veteran arm to the rotation while other contenders did. He did not believe that the Jays were a contending team being 4 games back just before the Jays left for the west coast.

When you look at the standings today, even with the four extra wins, the Jays would have needed to get by four other teams who would still be doing better than them. Detroit or Tampa are projected to have 87 wins and that's the magic number (Probably it is 88). For the Jays to hit that, they would have needed to go 28-17 against a very difficult schedule. Not impossible, but not likely either.

Wilner would call a team 3, 4, even 5 games out of a wild card a contending team. But given the number of wins they would have to take to make the wild card and the teams that they would have to pass, I would not have called them a contender on July 16th, and I wouldn't have called them a contender today even with 59 wins.  

So yep, blames the injuries for the Jays woes. It's the sad truth, but even without the injuries to the starting lineup, the Jays probably would not be contenders.

Anthopoulos and the mysterious catcher

Get out the shovel

Today, AA talked to the press about the catching situation, hinting that there's a good chance that Mathis (who inked a two year contract extension today), JP Arencibia (who is nursing a broken hand), and Travis D'Arnaud will all be on the team next spring, and that Travis D'Arnaud might start as the DH.

In this case, I really don't believe a word of Alex Anthopolous is saying. And the fact that the press is eating this up as gospel is equally as alarming. Analysis, please.

The position of DH needs to be taken by an experienced bat, not a rookie who has had zero playing experience in the Show. If you look at all of the other teams in the AL, the regular DHs are David Ortiz (Red Sox), Billy Butler (Royals), Kendrys Morales (Angels), Ryan Doumit (Twins), Adam Dunn (White Sox), Gomes (Oakland), Michael Young (Texas), and Travis Hafner (Indians). These are all experienced players with skills at positions other than catcher. Joe Mauer DHs because of his knees.

The Designated Hitter is supposed to be the best bat on the team, and it is supposed to be the best bat on the team who cannot play a position particularly well, whose defensive abilities would be a liability compared to another person on the team in the same position. In other words, Edwin Encarnacion. The Designated Hitter needs to be experienced, knows the game, knows situational hitting, and can threaten in clutch situations. None of these are Travis D'Arnaud.

There have been a few rookie DH hitters who went on to win Rookie of the Year honors. Evan Longoria was a DH in 2008, but he also plays third. Bob Hamelin is another rookie DH for Kansas City in 1994 but he also played 1st.

The position of catcher is highly specialized. Catchers are smart. They run the ball game defensively, calling the pitches, remembering who the hitters are. Athleticly, they need to be tough, crouching for all pitches, taking pitches, throwing quickly to bases, running down the line to cover plays, and being diplomats with umpires. There's a reason why catchers make great analysts in radio and television.

Putting Travis D'Arnuad, who has been called the best catching prospect in the game, at DH would be a waste of talent. He is unproven in the majors at the bat and will likely not be the best bat available at DH (Edwin). He is talented defensively at the position.

So, please Alex Anthopoulos and the Blue Jays, if you are going to consider putting Edwin on regularly at 1st and relegating Adam Lind to another team, please consider the free agent market and get a veteran in there instead of a DH. Travis D'Arnaud is a catcher, not a DH, and certainly not a rookie DH.

Don't kid yourself. Expect a trade of Travis D'Arnaud or JP Arencibia in the offseason, hopefully for a starter.

Were the Blue Jays doomed from the start?

What went wrong?

The Jays season looked promising enough: a great spring training at 25-7, with good performances by a number of starters, good performances by the starters, and a fairly healthy team, with McGowan the only culprit with a sore foot. The team was stronger than last year, with Brett Lawrie being the regular third baseman, a decent hitting Adam Lind, and a strong Colby Rasmus in center field. Bautista was back, and Encarnacion was also hitting well. Arencibia was back for his second full season, defensively much better. Anthopoulos went out and got proven bullpen in Darren Oliver, signed Casey Janssen to a two year extension, got back Jason Frasor, and acquired Cordero who had 37 saves for the Reds last year, and Sergio Santos who had 30 saves for the White Sox. Things were looking up.

And the fans bought into the hype too, buying 22% more tickets than last year (the rest of the league is up 4%) on the hopes of a team competing in the AL East vs a hurt Red Sox, a rebuilding Tampa Bay, and a mediocre Orioles team.

The team really received a one-two punch that did them in for the season. The one punch was losing three of their starters in one week, which I believe led to the demise of Ricky Romero due to the intense pressure for him to perform (the pressure he put on himself -- after the win at Miami on June 22, he has yet to win a game. The bats came to life however and left the team around the .500 mark with hope really slipping away game by game as they stayed roughly five games back of the wild card mark.

But the #2 punch happened on July 26th, when Arencibia broke his hand and Lind left the same night with a sore back. From that point, the team has hit a breaking point. Add to that outages by Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus and you have a team full of not-ready-for-prime time players to fill the spots. It is easy for good pitchers to pitch around a team when you have only four major league players in your line up. Snider's trade away didn't help team morale either.

Now the fans are blaming AA and Rogers for not spending the money on the Jays. Clearly, Rogers is afraid to sign blockbuster agreements. They dumped Vernon Wells' contract (fantastic move) and Alex Rios (good move). Bautista and Encarnacion's contracts are steals and most MLB analysts thing that those contracts are extremely good values for the Jays. They traded away Halladay. And I've explained in another post that the Jays activities represent about 1% of the total action within Rogers Communications, Inc, but the expectation is that they will be profitable. So, the fans are right. The only way that the Jays will spend some money is to build up the team slowly through value, and the team has indeed been making strides in that direction with their payroll slowly on the uptick to correspond with their revenue. The blame is fair, but do you want the Jays to be the New York Yankees? Do you want to spend an average of $63 for a ticket (current is $26)?

My view is that AA took a risk in not signing a veteran onto the pitching staff -- the rotation was too young, with three rookies and new rookies, and a fragile Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow. His gamble failed. A veteran might have not been a good value on paper, but might have stabilized the rotation. I can't fault AA with the initial bullpen choices. Having both Santos and Cordero imploding was not predictable -- it was just bad luck, and it took Farrell time to realize that Janssen and Oliver was up to the task of closer/setup after giving Cordero a reasonable amount of time to prove himself (and fail). Add to that Perez's season ending injury which complicated matters. The depth at relief also took time to resolve, and the Jays pretty much tried everybody on the AAA and AA farm to see if they were ready -- all kinds of relievers came up from AAA and went back down. Chavez, Beck, Carreno, Coello, Andrew Carpenter, Crawford, Pauley, Richmond -- none were ready. Finally, the Jays settled on Loup and had to trade for Lincoln, Delabar, and Lyon -- because no one from the farm was able to step up to the task in the bullpen. And on the starting rotation, Cecil and Laffey make decent #5 starters to replace Drabek and Hutchinson, but there really was no one of Morrow's calibre that was able to step up to the task.

On the hitting side, Lind failed until his return from AAA. He went on waivers and no one claimed him. No one stepped up to the task of being a star left-fielder, and just went it looked like Snider was up to stay, he was traded for the necessary relievers. There were slow starts by Rasmus, Arencibia and Bautista, and both Escobar and Johnson have be somewhat lacklustre. Only Edwin has really really impressed.

Let's face it though -- the injuries would have been insurmountable to any team. I am sure the Yankees would be on a major slump if they lost Cano (their best hitter), A-Rod, Texiera, Granderson, and Russell Martin. The injuries are the culprit here.

And it is clear that the depth of the farm is not there. Many have come up from AAA and AA to pitch and have failed, necessitating AA to go out and trade Snider and Thames. The AAA hitters who have come up have all failed to impress with the exception of Moises. Had the farm been ready with major-league ready relievers and hitters, the Jays would be all right.

So, you ask the question, did AA make bad acquisitions and overhyped the farm system, or did the players fail the Jays in their performances in the MLB? I would blame the players. The farm system has improved vastly over the years in their records and their independent ranks as prospects. But really, the end indicator of the value of a player is their performance in the majors. So, I can't blame AA for the farm acquisitions, but I will blame the players as a whole for failing to step up at the major league level.

In the end, the Jays season went wrong due to a vast and unheard of number of injuries. And the players really didn't step up before the pitchers went down in mid-June. Besides Anthopoulos acquiring a veteran pitcher in the offseason, I really can't fault him for doing anything wrong. And as long as Rogers continues ownership of the Jays, and they will for a long time, their spending will be conservative in nature. I really believe that the Jays will pull the trigger at the trade deadline if they believe they will make the post season -- the increase in ticket sales, playoff games, and ratings will recover the cost -- it makes economic sense to do so. But it makes no sense to Rogers Media to spend $150 million on player salaries when the team is only pulling in $160 million in revenue. Until that point in time, expect AA to stay the course and make spending decisions based on value, not on emotion.

Alex Anthopoulos: Jedi or Jabba?

Jedi knight, show us the force

With the Jays in their worst position in the season, the blame game has begun. Why aren't the Jays going to make the post-season this year? Why are they doing poorly? Some fans point at Alex Anthopoulos.

Is it Alex' fault that the Jays are not at the top of the wild card standings? Is Alex truly a Jedi knight, or is he Jabba the Hut?

The answer is kind of complex, having to do with grouping of poor individual performances, alot of injuries, and a couple of key pieces missing from the Jays puzzle that put the Jays behind the curve as the season began.

No one really stepped up to fill the left-field role. You can cry for the return of Eric Thames, but look at his stats for May when he bat .193. You can cry for the return of Travis Snider, but really, the Jays really never saw eye-to-eye with him, and the timing was off, and I think there were alot of issues with Travis and the Jays that we probably never found out about.

And Adam Lind failed to perform at 1B, forcing Edwin to play the position and leave the team short a DH, leaving 1B / DH short. Those two key positional players who are supposed to hit a ton were missing from the season. You can't blame AA for not using Lind at 1B -- he had a terrific spring training. And all of the fandom was pretty comfortable with Thames in left with Snider waiting in the wings, and Ben Francisco and the speedy Rajai Davis as backups. And the Jays scored Omar Visquel, a very strong hall of fame veteran presence. Jeff Mathis finished the bench as the backup catcher.

And finally, the starting pitching didn't hold out. Morrow and Romero started off looking decent. Romero never really was an ace this year, but Morrow started to really bring his best game starting in May. Drabek and Hutchinson were never very good, but Hutchinson was improving, and Alverez was doing as expeted. Cecil wasn't performing, Litsch got insured, and so did McGowan, so a promising pitching staff in spring training didn't pan out, at all. Then came the injuries that decimating the Jays pitching staff.

This year is supposed to be a development year for JP Arencibia and Brett Lawrie, and fans accepted that. And absolutely, it was supposed to be developmental years for Henderson Alvarez, Kyle Drabek, and Drew Hutchinson. The Jays tried to replace Rauch / Francisco with Cordero / Santos.

You can't get upset at AA's procurement of Cordero. His last year with Cincinnati was great, sporting a WHIP of 1.029 over 68 starts and an ERA of 2.45. And you really can't fault him for getting Santos either who had 30 saves (6 blown) for the White Sox last year. Only a crystal ball would tell you that Santos would end up hurt and Cordero would end up as a completely ineffetive closer. Since he was taken out of the closer role in early May, he did okay until the end of June with an ERA of 1.75 but a WHIP over 1.3. Still, not as advertised.

The Jays had a need for a centerfielder last year, and they got that with Colby Rasmus. An excellent defender, his bat has been pretty inconsistent. In the last half of July since the all star break, he hit a paltry .152 / .194 / .242 yet managed to hit 11 RBIs in that time (over 10 hits). The trade price for Rasmus was Octavio Dotel who is pitching well for Detroit and Mark Rzepczynski who is pitching not-so-well for St. Louis. We could have used Edwin Jackson.

The #2 for #2 (Hill for Johnson) trade in which the Jays also lost Johnny Mac I think turned out lousy. I think that Aaron Hill is just as good a defender as Johnson, and both Johnny Mac and Hill are hitting very well for Arizona this year. I guess if you have the question of whether you would rather have Johnny McDonald or Omar Visquel here, the sentimental choice is Johnny Mac every time.

Then you look at the Brett Wallace for Anthony Gose trade. Brett Wallace was more MLB ready than Gose, but Anthopoulos was looking for talent in center field, thinking that Lind would be the every day 1B or that Encarnacion or even Cooper could play 1st. Gose is lightning fast however, and probably Gose's value is higher than Wallace, as the positional demands of CF are much higher than 1B, and there was no room on the team for all three of Lind, Encarnacion and Wallace. The strategy was to let Gose brew in AAA for 2012 and have him come in as an outfielder in 2013, perhaps replacing Rajai Davis, perhaps moving Colby to left. But with Bautista hurt and the trade of Snider and Thames, Gose is playing in the outfield, but he isn't completely cooked yet, I think.

Finally, you look at the moves made this year to acquire JA Happ, Carpenter and Brandon Lyon trading away minor prospects, Cordero and Francisco. I think it was the right move to make to shore up a bullpen that is short Santos, Perez, and Villanueva. Cordero simply wasn't working out. Lyon is a good reliever and JA Happ is a candidate for a #5 starter (#5 only) should one of the starters really fail. And you look at the trade deadline to deal Snider and Thames for two more relievers, thus shoring up the bullpen and making it look significantly better and different than the rest of the season. Janssen is now the closer. You have a starting pitcher in Happ, who was not good this year but could be very good again.

The trades for Thames and Snider have been analyzed quite fully in the media. We saw Brad Lincoln last night throw four shutout frames, and if this is what we get from him in the bullpen (and according to him, that's where he wants to be), I think the fandom will be happy indeed. Delabar hasn't pitched very well yet, but most analysts think that Thames would be an average left-field, at best.

If you want to criticize Anthopoulos, then you gotta criticize the entire organization. Anthopoulos is forced to be smart and thrifty in his contracts and his trades because frankly, Rogers Communications doesn't want to deal with a contract like Vernon Wells or Alex Rios (though Rios is having a great year this year, he stunk last year). Anthopoulos can't go out and make 7 year $120 million dollar deals and that puts him at a disadvantage in the AL East (except Tampa). Bautista, who is a marquee player, is the most expensive player on the team with a 5 year, $65 million dollar contract that expires in 2015, and that is extremely cheap. Encarnacions 3 year $29 million deal -- also cheap.

One thing that we can fault Anthopoulos for is the gamble he made to not get a veteran starter in his rotation in the off season. One thing that we can probably guess on is that he tried. The gamble didn't pay off. Dustin McGowan, the club's projected #3 or #4 starter, never made a start. But still, most fans and analysts felt that the pitching staff was a gamble, too young, and not ready. If the Jays are not to make the post season this year, that choice can be pinned on Anthopoulos. But really, everything else he has done (under the conditions he could have done it) has been great. And you can't blame the Jays woes now on Anthopoulos -- that is purely a function of injuries.

So, I'm going to go with guru. When he gets players, the deal is never expected, really. The deals come literally at you from left field. The deals are thrifty and fulfills long term needs. Alex' failure to get a great starter is probably due to Rogers not wanting to pay the money for a long term contract that might turn out to be an albatross combined with him not wanting to rent a player who won't get the team into the post-season anyway.

Rogers Media and the Boo Jays

Blue Jays and Rogers Media: a connection you can't ignore

Many years ago, media companies began merging into oligarchies. In the United States, for example, General Electric bought NBC. AOL became AOL Time Warner. MicroSoft teamed up with NBC to form MSNBC. Viacom, who owned CBS, bought Paramount, which owned Canada's Wonderland, and for a while, you would watch commercials for Viacom properties while you waited 45 minutes to get on the Bat. Alas, I digress.

Rogers Communications inc. started in the early 1960s as a radio company based in Toronto, starting with CHFI (98.1 FM) and CFTR (680 News). By the late 60s, they expanded to television, and in the early 80s they expanded to Wireless (remember Cantel?).

Then, in the 90s, Rogers bought MacLean-Hunter, and finally, in 2000, they bought the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays haven't made the playoffs in the past 11 years.

Today, Rogers has really three divisions that are all tightly related: a wireless division (we all know Rogers Wireless and Fido), a cable division, and finally Rogers Media. Based on last year's results, Rogers Wireless is extremely profitable, with 3 billion in operating profits on 7.1 billion dollars of revenue based on 9.3 million subsctibers. Those of you who say your wireless bill is too expensive are right. The problem is that Bell and Telus won't lower their prices either (the oligarchy). Rogers Cable is pretty profitable too, with 1.6 billion of profit on 3.8 billion in revenue (of course, the competitors won't compete in Canada either) based on 3.75 million subscribers. And finally, there is the Media area, which has just 180 million dollars of operating profit on 1.6 billion dollars in revenue,

What is Rogers Media?

Well, they own and operate CityTV and OMNI (which is why you see commercials for CityTV while watching the Jays). They own 9 specialty channels (including SportsNet) and own pieces of four other TV stations. Television produces 41% of operating revenue in 2011. The Shopping Channel produces 16% of operating revenue as well.

They also produce 54 consumer, trade and professional publications including of course Chatelaine and MacLeans. Publications produced 17% of operating revenue in 2011.

And there's radio with 50+ radio stations across the country, including the beloved Fan590 and the rest of the Fan Radio network, but also 680 news in Toronto.

And finally, there is a division called Sports Entertainment, which are the Blue Jays and Rogers Centre which produced the final 10% of operating revenue.

So as a whole, the Blue Jays and Rogers Centre had about 160 million dollars of revenue of the total of 14.5 billion dollars of revenue, a little bit over 1% of the entire Rogers empire.

One point of all of this is that the Blue Jays operate as part of the great whole of Rogers, and the goal of Rogers, and therefore the Blue Jays, are to be profitable. The Jays are not going to operate at a loss. In fact, they are probably expected to have a profit margin similar to other divisions at Rogers Media. That precludes management from spending big bucks like the Yankees and Red Sox. In fact, the only other corporations that owns an MLB club is Nintendo's majority ownership of the Seattle Mariners and Lerner Enterprises' ownership of the Nationals. What this means is that the people responsible for the pursestrings of the Jays are not really connected to the Jays. The Jays report to Rogers Media. Rogers Media reports to Rogers Communications, and the Jays are really a small part (1%) of the entire picture.

The other point of this is the synergy that exists uniquely within the Blue Jays. The Jays broadcast on the Fan Radio network and on SportsNet exclusively, both Rogers properties. Opinions on the Jays are broadcast primarily on Jays owned media outlets. This stifles the independent voices of the club. Radio analyst Mike Wilner was censored for a weekend for criticizing Cito Gaston. For all other clubs, radio rights are given to a radio network who are free to make comments without fear of censure. The same is true for television rights with the exceptions of YES (Yankees). As a result, the Jays broadcasters are encouraged, whether directly or indirectly, to stay on message, and if they aren't, there is always the suspicion that they are. The Blue Jays radio network and SportsNet will prop up the Jays, as a positive outlook gets more customers, and more customers mean more advertising revenue for Rogers Media, which is the company's mission. Once again, the goal of the Toronto Blue Jays is not to win a World Series. It is to be profitable. Shi Davidi, Mike Wilner, and Scott Carson are paid shills of Rogers, as are the Blue Jays themselves. They're all part of the same club, with the same goal.

For myself, that means that I take everything that comes out of Sportsnet.ca, the Fan 590, or Sportsnet TV with a very critical eye.

Once you realize that the goal of the Blue Jays are to win profitably and that most of the opinions that you hear on radio and TV are just part of the Rogers empire messages, you might understand the workings of the Jays more. Alex Anthopoulos won't buy big talent because it isn't profitable in the short term to do so. The Jays will always sound better than they actually are because the television and radio outlets prop them up.