New season, same team?

Disappointment will be less as our expectations are much lower

The Toronto Blue Jays open their season tomorrow at Tampa before the Yankees come to town this weekend. I've been away for five months and it's great that baseball is back. I managed to listen to and watch some of the spring training games looking for something different. I watched the off-season moves, hoping that Alex Anthopolous and Rogers would come up with some scratch to sign a big name pitcher for 2014. 

So, what I see is the same players (save Navarro, thank God) on the same team using the same techniques to win and lose games. 

The exception this year is that our expectations were so high this year, while this year I think the fan base will be happy with anything over .500. Certainly, Rogers Media has toned down the rhetoric for this year, and that's a good thing. I think the fan base at Rogers Centre will remain steady, making no gains on 2013, while the fan base around the country will remain tied to the Blue Jays' win-loss record, with some extra interest as it looks like only one Canadian team will make the NHL playoffs.

Let's take a look at this year's roster and point out some of the questionable roster moves for opening day. This article will focus on the hitters, while the next focuses on the pitching.

Overall, this team should be hitting better than they did last year, which was absolutely abysmal. Last year featured some terrible offensive outages due to really poor seasons by Maicer, JP, and Bonifacio, bad streaks by Jose, Colby, Lind, and Lawrie compounded by injuries by most everyone on the offence, leaving them with inferior replacements like Kawasaki, Thole/Blanco, Gose, and Pillar. 

Once again, the key to this year's performance offensively will be consistency and injury avoidance. While the addition of Navarro might help the offensive performance as will a return of Melky to his former self, the team is now lacking formidable speed with the departures of Emilio (who could never get on base anyway) and Rajai Davis (a true weapon), and Anthony Gose sitting in AAA. This means that the team must attempt to move runners forward by ways of the bat. And with a three man bench and no one on the bench particularly good, late game situational hitting will be lacking.

This leads me to believe that while the numbers overall will be better, run production will suffer.

Here's my player by player analysis.

C - Dioner Navarro with a .300 / .465 / .492 slash last year and an all star 2008 (with Tampa) under his belt, this guy brings veteran experience behind the plate, which is what the pitching staff and John Gibbons needs defensively. Offensively, he comes with a caveat, in that there were years where he suffered at the plate. For example, after his all-star year with the Rays where he hit .295, he hit just .218 in the following year. So, it is unclear which Dioner we are going to get this year. Still, it's a huge improvement over the train wreck which was JP Arencibia last year. He seemed to have some power last year too, hitting 13 homers in 266 plate appearance. In Rogers Centre, playing full-time, he might have the potential to hit 20 dingers. I also like the fact that he came from Tampa, a Blue Jays rival, with some knowledge of the pitching system there.

C - Josh Thole is here to catch RA Dickey, and will figure into games only if he manages to crack .200. He was quite the batting disappointment last year, but I think part of that was the fact that he was only in games where the opposing pitcher was the team's ace (in that RA is the Blue Jays ace, and aces tend to play each other).

I am surprised that the Jays chose Thole over Kratz as the backup catcher. In the end, I think the Jays traded offense for the ability to catch and hopes that Thole can have a little bit of offense one game of five. I think it's a very tall order to push Thole into action one day out of five, and I would like to see the Jays play him in two of five games, especially if his offense shows a bit of spark.

1B/DH - Adam Lind has had an excellent spring, with Buck quoting that he was looking like the Lind of 2009. Well with the goatee, he definitely looks like the Dr. Hyde version of Lind in 2013. The issue with Lind always is his back health and his ability to stay consistent. If he can remain warm for 2014 and Gibbons uses him in every day situations (against LHP and RHP) and gives him breaks so that he can rest (using him as DH, sitting him from time to time), Lind can relive his glory from 2009.

1B/DH - Edwin Encarnacion, for a Jay, is Mr. Consistency. From oblivion three years ago when the Jays let him go to Oakland (only to be reclaimed), the former "E5" has turned into a decent first baseman sporting a .275 / .364 / .517 line over the past three years with not much in the way of injuries.

At issue here are the away National league games (against Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati) where both Edwin and Adam can't play.

2B - Ryan Goins -- The Blue Jays draftee of 2009 is the starting 2B, sporting a paltry .177 batting average over spring training. Last year, in his MLB debut, he hit .252 / .264 / .345 over 121 plate appearances, with 2 walks and 28 strikeouts. He is supposed to be excellent defensively.

I seriously question the decision of putting in Goins over Kawasaki. Now, one could point out Muni's slash last year (.229 / .326 / .308) as being worse than Goins, but that OBP is meaningful. Muni drew a heck of alot more of Pitches per Plate Appearance than pretty much anyone else in the majors. He is extremely popular with the fan base, and he is defensively capable all around the infield. One could argue that this year represents that natural progression for Goins, and that it's his time to prove himself at the MLB level. But the fan base loves Muni. He is JAPANESE!!!

The good news is that if Ryan doesn't prove himself, Muni will be on that bus from Buffalo.

SS - Jose Reyes, while defensively average, Jose is a necessary and vital piece of the Jays offense this year. Our hope is that his hamstring doesn't have any issue. His injury last year was not related to his hamstring. I hope that he improves on his already excellent .296/.353/.427 line from last year.

3B - Brett Lawrie -- We were hoping collectively that LAST year would have been the year for Brett, and looking that the downward trend year over year, we find that we have been making excuses for this man's offensive performance (at .254/.315/.397) last year. He had a terrible spring, got injured, tried 2B (stupid idea), and finally broke out after the all star break, where he had a string of 42 games hitting .324 / .384 / .507 before having a meh September. Defensively, he's a gem. If he stays healthy, it will be HIS year to show MLB his star quality. He becomes arbitration eligible next year, and the Jays are going to have to show him the money if he has a great year, which we all hopes he has. He seems to have matured and slowed down his waggle at home plate and seems to have more control.

UF - Maicer Izturis is the team's utility infielder and after a crappy year (his worst year offensively in MLB), we are all hoping that he does better. When he had regular play with Brett's injury, he managed to hit .309 / .351 / .397 over 150 plate appearance, which was pretty good. But he started off terribly and ended the season terribly as well, batting just .167 for the rest of the season over 103 plate appearances. Defensively, he is okay. 

LF - Melky Cabrera, with an undiagnosed tumour in his back and an absolute defensive liability in LF last year, the man still managed to hit .279 last year with no power. This year, he looks absolutely white hot, hitting .400 in spring training. We can only hope that Melky is the Melky of 2011 this year. We shall see if the turf in LF doesn't hurt him.

CF - Colby Rasmus was hot and cold last year, pretty much like the rest of the club, and with a strikeout rate near 30% and a propensity to look foolish against LHP, he can be a frustrating player to watch. Still, overall, he had an excellent year in 2013, batting .276 / .338 / .501. He demonstrates power. Defensively, he has moments where he is excellent, and moments of complete lapses. I'm looking forward to seeing him perform this year, and hopes that he has a consistently good year with a measure of better plate discipline.

RF - Jose Bautista has had an excellent spring, and that wrist and his violent swing hopefully will not lead to injury as it has over the last couple of years. Still, a HR every 15 or so plate appearances is not a bad thing, and his arm and defence is most helpful.

OF - Moises Sierra had an excellent 2013 in limited action as Jose's replacement last September and represents a capable 4th OF for the Jays and represents the good choice versus Gose and Pillar.

The Outsiders: Anthony Gose, Kevin Pillar, Muni Kawasaki and Kratz are the four outsiders looking in. I see all four of them in Jays uniforms at some point this year.

Next: the Pitchers.

Series recap: Jays wake up in Baltimore

September 24-26, 2012

After losing six in a row in the Bronx and at the Trop, the remaining Jays fans who have now turned their eyes elsewhere (not hockey) were looking for a turnaround in Baltimore. And it looks like they got one - a small one, mind you, as they went 2-2 in the four game set.

 

In all, the Jays come back off the road going 2-8, quite disappointing, but frankly, in a best case scenario, with the teams that they were playing and the state of the roster, 4-6 might have been the best to hope for.

On the pitching front, Laffey's effort was by far the highlight of the series. Alvarez, Romero, and Villanueva were not good. The bullpen however was excellent with the exception of Wednesday night's game when Farrell trotted out Carreno, Beck, and Carpenter down by 4, 6, and 8 runs. Janssen also looked rusty in his efforts but managed to get out relatively unscathed.

On the hitting front, Arencibia, Lind, Edwin, and Hechavarria were highlights, while Colby and Lawrie were disappointments.

• JP went 7 for 9 with two walks in the series, after going 2 for 37 with two walks since his injuries. Perhaps he's turned the corner, a great sign. Remember that in the 18 games before his injury, he hit .319 / .349 / .700 (with six home runs) and was really coming together. In Baltimore, he hit a  home run and a double.
• Adam Lind went 6 for 9 in the series (all singles). Since September 11, Adam's hitting 17-51 (.333) with 4 doubles, 2 triples, and a home run for an OPS of .906.  If Lind can end the season on this positive note, it will be difficult to dismiss him as the opening day 1B or DH especially against RHP and the value of his contract.  
• Edwin went 5-16 with two home runs. Edwin, in his last 11 games is batting 12-37 with 4 home runs and 8 walks (OPS 1.106).  
• Hechavarria went 3 for 8 and is running a 9 game hitting streak, batting 10 for 29 with 2 doubles and a home run in that stretch (OPS .889). Since August 23rd, Adieny is hitting (.303 / .329 / .434) over 81 plate appearances and is making the argument to be in the starting lineup next year.

On the awful side, Colby Rasmus went 1 for 12 (two walks) while Brett Lawrie went 2 for 16 (3 walks). Colby's batting .111 in his last 11 games played; Lawrie is batting .170. When your 1-2 in the order has a .255 and .200 OBP respectively, it's hard for Edwin to drive in runs. Bautista had the same problem at the start of the season when Escobar and Johnson headed up the lineup.

 

Monday afternoon: Jays 1 at Orioles 4

 

The Jays continued their offensive drought Monday afternoon, while Henderson Alvarez gave up four runs over 5 2/3rds inning in a step back after three good outings.

Henderson's enemy again was the home run. In the bottom of the fourth, a lead off walk to Chris Davis was followed up by an Adam Jones home run. Alvarez gave up an another home run to Flaherty to open the bottom of the fifth, and Alvarez really started to come undone in the bottom of the sixth, as the Orioles loaded the bases (Jones single, Wieters double, Thome intentional walk) with none out. Mark Reynolds then hit into a double play, scoring Adam Jones. Cecil then came on to finish the frame, and Frasor and Beck finished off the game without any damage being done.

Henderson's line was 5.2 innings pitched. Over 86 pitches, he walked 3, struck out 6, and gave up 2 home runs. The Jays defence was fine that afternoon with no glaring problems or issues.

 

On the offensive side, the Jays threatened (as usual) a few times in the game before breaking through in the eighth inning with two outs. Edwin singled, Lind singled, and Rajai Davis doubled home Edwin. Darren O'Day came on to strike out Kelly Johnson (good guess) to end the threat. Jim Johnson breezed through the last frame to record his 48th (!) save.

 

The rookie Steve Johnson let in 3 hits over five innings of work and looked great, now going 21 scoreless innings over a couple of starts and relief appearances. And besides Tommy Hunter, the rest of the Orioles pitching staff pitched with their usual efficiency.

 

For the Jays hitting, Colby reached twice on walks, and Adam Lind hit twice. Jeff Mathis went 0-2 as did Yunel. Anthony Gose went 0-4.

 

Monday night: Jays 9 at Orioles 4.

An excellent offensive effort by the Jays (Arencibia's 5 RBIs), and a key defensive play by Gose resulted in a Jays win.

The night game featured the struggling Ricky Romero vs Wei-Yin Chen. In this match, the Jays needed some excellent defensive play to win this game. Ricky was truly lucky to end up with the win.

Edwin started off the scoring in the top of the first with a two run home run following a Brett Lawrie walk. Ricky's bottom of the first looked a little shaky with a opening walk.

Chen continued to be shaky in the 2nd. Sierra singled and Visquel doubled to open the inning. JP Arencibia hit a long fly ball to right to advance Visquel and score Sierra. Gose singled to left to score Visquel and it was 4-0 going into the bottom of the 2nd.

But in the bottom of the 2nd, 8 hitters for Baltimore came to the plate as Romero's pitching woes continued. Reynolds singled, then Machado hit a seeing eye single between 3rd and short. Chavez advanced the runners to 2nd and 3rd with two out, but Andino hit a weak single again between short and 3rd to score two runs. Romero then errored allowing Teagarden to reach and McLouth was beaned before Romero got out of the inning. 4-2 after 2.

Romero managed to sail through the 3rd and 4th inning. Romero ran into some trouble in the bottom of the 5th as McLouth paid back Romero for hitting him by hitting a home run. Jones then hit a double and Romero walked two batters, loading the bases before Chavez hit a weak ground ball down the first base side that Romero handled and tagged him out to preserve the lead. Sierra immediately homered in the top of the 5th to give Romero a 5-3 lead going into the 5th, and with Romero having thrown 85 pitches and looking wild, it was really surprising to see him come out and pitch the sixth. I really thought that Farrell would want his bullpen to preserve the win.

In the bottom of the 5th, Romero continued his woes, giving up a double to Andino, a single and a walk, ending Romero's day. Sportsnet had some nice shots of Romero looking quite upset as Brad Lincoln came on to with the bases loaded and none out. JJ Hardy then singled to score a run. Lincoln then settled down and managed to strike out Adam Jones, then a shallowish fly ball by Davis was caught by Jones. Teagarden, the lumbering catcher tagged, and Gose threw a perfect one bounce strike to Arencibia to tag out the Oriole, just barely in time. 5-4 Jays after 6, and Romero was in line for the win.

In the 7th, with Jake Arreita on the mound, the Jays struck again. Encarnacion walked, Escobar singled, and Lind (who pinch hit for Yan Gomes against the righty) singled to load the bases. Sierra then hit into a fielders choice as Reynolds threw out Encarnacion for the force at home, and Visquel popped to short. Then, JP Arencibia, who was hitting 4-39 since his return, decided to hit a just-out-of-the park GRAND SLAM to take the a 9-4 lead.

Lincoln pitched the 7th, Loup the 8th and Janssen came on to pitch the ninth. He looked rusty, giving up 3 singles to load the bases with none out, but Reynolds managed to hit into a double play (scoring one) and Machado struck out to end the ball game.

Tuesday: Jays 4, Orioles 0

Aaron Laffey and the bullpen combine for a shutout, Jays get 13 hits for 2nd night in a row in a well-rounded effort.

Aaron Laffey threw something like 57 innings last year in the Mariners and Yankee organization before being converted into a starter by the Jays this year. So, far this year, Laffey threw 63.2 innings for Las Vegas and 90 innings for the Jays. I think if the Jays didn't have to use Laffey to start, they wouldn't, but with Happ on the bench and playing 10 games in 8 days left little choice for the Jays.

Laffey pitched 5 2/3rds inning, scattering 5 hits, pitching to contact (no walks, no strikeouts). Farrell decided to preserve his arm and took Laffey out of the game with Jones single while the Jays were up 2-0. Farrell then played matchups, putting out Delabar, Cecil (to get one out), and Lyon. Oliver and Janseen then finished the game, and once again Janssen looked rusty, as Escobar bobbled a ball with 1 out, then a popup and two walks later, the bases were loaded with 2 out with the tying run at the plate in Flaherty, who hit a fly ball to end the game.

Offensively, it was another 13 hit effort as every Jay got at least one hit. Gomes recorded an RBI in the first, with a single to score Lawrie in the 1st. In the fourth, Hechavarria hit a long double with two out to knock in Davis from first. The Jays scored two more in the 7th as Rasmus knocked in Arencibia who singled and advanced to second as Gose reached on a an error. Encarnacion then knocked in Gose but Davis threw out Rasmus as he tried to go 1st to 3rd. The throw by Davis was brilliant and just got Rasmus out at 3rd, so I wouldn't blame Rasmus from trying to advance.

Escobar, Gomes, Rajai, and JP Arencibia got two hits each. Arencibia was the only player who walked.

Wednesday: Jays 2 and Baltimore 12

Carlos Villanueva ran out of gas in the 5th inning as the Jays offense runs typically dry. The bullpen's minor leaguers allowed 2 runs each inning to put the game out of reach.

As I wrote in my previous blog entry, Villanueva has been audtioning to be a starter now since he entered the rotation on June 29th. The fear for Villanueva has always been his arm. He injured it last year, and he's never pitched as many innings as he has this year. I think that Villanueva has starter stuff, but that his arm will wear out at some point next year. For that reason, I think Villaneuva would be a perfect fit for the Jays as both Drabek and Hutchinson will be ready mid and late season to replace Carlos.

In the first inning, Edwin and and McLouth exchanged home runs. In the fifth, the Jays scored thir only other run of the game as Gose knocked in Arencibia who doubled on the previous at bat.

But in the bottom of the 5th, Villaneuva's arm had had enough. Villanueva's fastball had topped out at 90mph, and he was relying alot on his slider, change up and curve to get runners out, and he was successful at doing so. Villanueva up until the point was pretty good, throwing 7 strikeouts and walking 1. Jim Thome hit the 1st pitch (a change up) out of the park to tie the game. With two outs, Machado hit a home run (on another change up) to go down 3-2. McLouth and Hardy then singled before Chris Davis hit his 27th home run for his 27th home run (on a slider left up). That ended it for Villaneuva.

Down 6-2, Farrell elected to go to the AAA callups in the bullpen, going with Carreno in the 6th, who walked Wieters and gave up a 2 run home run to Mark Reynolds. In the 7th, Farrell went with Beck. Beck gave up a single to Hardy before Chris Davis hit a 2-run homer. In the 8th, Farrell went with David Carpenter. Lawrie had a terrible throw to allow Reynolds to reach, and then Machado homered. 12-2 after 8.

Offensively, Adam Lind went 3 - 4 (singles), while Arencibia (2B), Encarnacion (HR), Gose, and Hechavarria rounded out the hitting.

So, for Carlos, who may have one outing remaining, he is running on fumes. One might ask why Farrell would run out the Vegas trio to throw innings when down only 4 runs, but I am thinking that he needed to give his bullpen a rest.

Coming up: Jays vs Yankees

The Jays come home now to finish off their disappointing season, getting to hopefully play spoiler against the Yankees, who will be pulling out all the stops to win the division against the Orioles (who will be in Boston). The last series will be against the even more disappointing Minnesota Twins to close out the season.

 

August 30: Tampa Bay 0, Jays 2

Brilliant pitching efforts set the tone

Carlos Villanueva has been a welcome addition to stabilize the starting rotation. While a couple of his outings have not been quality starts, he has given his team the opportunity to win. Some of his stuff is electric. Certainly, he has been performing as a number 3 starter this year. He wants to start next year, and I think that as long as his arm can remain healthy through the year, he should be given the chance. As a starter now, over 11 starts, he is pitching to an ERA of 3.03 and a WHIP of 1.08. Over 65 1/3 innings, he has struck out 65, for a rate of 8.95K / 9 and 2.3 BB/9. Certainly, this is starter stuff.

The Jays are capping him at about 100 pitches, which for Carlos, works out to about 6 innings. His outing against the White Sox where he threw 85 pitches over 7 was his most recent best outing. He's pretty good.

Tonight was no exception. Tampa pitching since the all-star break has been phenomenal with an ERA of 2.91 for starters and a ridiculous 1.21 ERA for relievers. And August has been tighter with a pitching ERA of 2.82 for starters and 0.93 for relievers. So, for the Jays to win, pitching would have to be very tight. And it was.

The sum of Toronto's offense was a Kelly Johnson double in the bottom of the 1st with the bases loaded and two out as Moore was a little bit wild. After that point, the Jays threatened a couple of times with two outs but wasn't able to put any insurance on the board. The Jays did not have any real baserunning errors or offensive gaffes. Colby, Edwin, Mathis, and Hechavarria were kept off the hit list. Escobar reached base three times out of four with two singles and a walk. Kelly Johnson also went two for four.

Carlos Villanueva only really got into trouble in the 2nd with two singles to open the frame. A sac bunt put Tampa's two runners in scoring position with one out. Then, a short pop out and a strike out ended the inning. Carlos then proceeded to strike out 5 more in a row, tying the franchise record for consecutive strikeouts at 6 (JA Happ also struck out 6 in a row a couple of weeks ago) before Matt Joyce ruined the party with a pop out to left.

Darren Oliver, Brad Lincoln, and Casey Janssen were perfect in their final three innings of relief, striking out 4, walking none.

So, a great opener to the series. For tomorrow's tilt, it's a battle between Brandon Morrow, on his 2nd start after being injured, and Jeremy Hellickson.

I really feel that the Jays are starting to turn a corner now, having won 3 of the last 4. Let's hope they can wrap August on a positive note. The Jays pitching staff seems somewhat rejuvenated with Morrow back in the clubhouse. Romero pitched great on Tuesday night. JA Happ pitched well enough. Carlos pitched great. And the bullpen is also pitching well again.

Even with Bautista out, there is enough offense there to be potent. Only Hechavarria and Moises are the rookies remaining in the line up. Escobar has woken up finally. Lind is not looking foolish at the plate.

August 27: Blue Jays 8, Yankees 7

Colby Rasmus the hero, Jays only blow save once



Colby's 3 run home run in the top of the 9th
Kathy Kmonicek / AP



I love, absolutely love to see the Yankees lose.

There are lots of things going on with the Jays these days. The litany of injuries continue. Will Lawrie come back? What is the extent of Jose's new injury? How will Hechavarria play? Will Rasmus continue to strike out incessently? What about the rumours around Farrelll and the Red Sox?

Well there was a game to play, and with long man turned starter David Phelps in his third start in a row and the Jays riding a 7 game losing streak and Henderson Alvarez on the mound, things did not look good for the Jays tonight.

And it started off as a bit of a duel, with Cano's first two at bats and two runs being solo home runs. Adam Lind, in his first AB after rehab, also homered pretty much to the same place Cano did, to the bullpen just right of centerfield. Cano's second home run was to the short porch in right to open the bottom of the fourth. Then, the Yankees scored their third run off a deflection off of Henderson's foot that took him out of a game as the ball bounced into right field, scoring Teixiera from second who walked. On came Laffey.

With runners on 1st and third with one out, the Jays conceded a run on a Chavez fielder's choice. After four, it was 4-1 Yankees.

Onto the top of the fifth as a Torrealba hit a two run shot to the short porch (again, in rightfield) to score Johnson who walked to open the inning.

Then Laffey had a terrible bottom of the fifth, walking Jeter, then a Swisher HR (into the second row of stands in left), then got an out, walked, got an out, walked, and then got an out to end the inning. After 5, it was 6-3 Yankees.

Hechavarria got one back at the top of the seventh on a solid single on a low pitch down the third base line to score Torrealba who was on second from a fielder's choice by Moises. 6-4 after 7.

Laffey left the game at the end of the sixth with another injured leg off Jeter. Hopefully, he will be all right as will Alvarez, because the Jays six man rotation would be solved if one of these two got injured.

The Jays kept it clean in the 7th (Delabar / Loup) and 8th (Loup / Lincoln) as the Yankees threatened in the 8th with two out and a runner on third with Ichiro out, but Lincoln induced a ground ball to Escobar.

But going into the 9th inning with closer Soriano coming into the game facing Torrealba / Sierra / Hechavarria, things looked bleak. But Moises managed a base hit and Hechavarria did not hit into a game ending double play, but with two out, things still looked bleak. Rajai hit a single into left with Moises running on the pitch putting runners on first and third with two out and Colby Rasmus up. 

Colby's troubles have been well documented here. Since he injured his groin in Oakland, he's gone .123 over 57 at bats and has not recognized some pitches. However, he had no problem recognizing Robertson's hanging curveball, and did this, a three run home run to deep right centre. Welcome back, Colby, welcome back. And a very rare blown save by Soriano, who had not let in a run in 10 appearances and got seven saves in a row. This was his third blown save this year. And Colby Rasmus was the hero.

But the game wasn't over yet. On came Casey Janssen against Derek Jeter, who, on the 2nd pitch of the at bat, hit a deep fly ball that just went over the wall in deep right field. Cheap home run, but it tied the game. Blown save for Janssen, and Jays fans all over the nation probably sighed with despair.

But the Jays perservered, and the Jays caught a lucky break. Torrealba singled to open the 11th (after a clean 10th inning by Oliver), and Mike McCoy came on to pinch run. But Derek Lowe threw a ball into the legs of McCoy in a pickoff attempt and the ball went into right field, and McCoy advanced to third with none out. Sierra struck out, but Hechavarria hit a slow ground ball that froze McCoy off third. Nix threw out Hechavarria but McCoy went home on the throw to first and easily beat out the throw home. 8-7 Jays.

Oliver came on for a second inning of relief. He walked Ichiro with one out, but was forced out at second by a Jeter fielder's choice. Olvier then faced Swisher and got him into a full count before Oliver froze Swisher with a 75 mph slider for a called strike 3. Win for Oliver.

So, all in all, a very entertaining game. Torrealba went 3-5, and Rasmus, Lind, and Hechavarria went 2-5. It remains to be seen whether Rasmus will continue his slump-breaking behaviour.

Both Laffey and Alvarez are day-to-day and should be able to continue in their starting and relieving roles.

Tomorrow, it's Ricky Romero off his 2nd worst outing ever vs Phil Hughes.

Would the Jays be contending now but for the injuries?

Could the Jays have won 4 more games of the last 29 with an intact lineup? Sure. Does that make them a contender? Maybe.

Listening to Wilner's the Blue Jays talk last night, Wilner believed that "absolutely, the team would be contending right now" if the Jays were not injured. He stated that since the Jays lost Bautista, the team went 11-18.

Let's say that instead of 11-18, they went 15-14. Where would they be in the standings today? On July 16, the Jays were 45-45 (now 56-63), and they were two games back of Detroit (47-43) for the remaining wildcard spot.

Okay, without Bautista, they got swept by the Yankees, but then swept the Boston Red Sox. On Sunday, July 22, the Jays were 48-47, but three games out of a wild card behind the Orioles at 51-44. It's safe to say that the results in the Bronx would not have changed as the Jats lost 6-0 and 6-1. Bautista's bat would not have been a factor.

For the Oakland series at home, July 25th was the last day that we saw Adam Lind and JP Arencibia. The Jays missing those three in the line up would have had no effect on the outcome (The Jays sans Bautista would not have come back from a 8 run disaster by Romero nor a 7-2 decision the day before). So at the end of the Oakland series at home on July 26 (a game that they won), the Jays record was 49-49, 4 games back of Oakland for the final wild card spot. No change to the Jays record thus far purely due to injuries in the starting lineup.

The Jays then won two of three against the Tigers on the weekend series and lost 4-1 on the Sunday game with Cecil pitching against Fister. Without Arencibia, Lind and Bautista, it's safe to say that this loss still would have happened -- the Jays only threatened in the 3rd and 4th inning in this game and the batters up were regulars. So as of July 29, the Jays record is still unchanged at 51-50, 4 games back of the Angels for the final wild card spot.

So, let's be clear. Before the road trip to the west coast, on July 30th, the Jays were 4 games out a playoff spot with a record of 51-50, and there are no games that the Jays really would have won with Bautista, Lind, and Arencibia in the lineup. They either lost by too many runs or weren't due in the lineup to comeup in situations with runners on base.

Anthopoulos therefore would have made the same moves at the trade deadline.

The West Coast has always been particularly hard on the Jays, and with the trade of Snider, the offense really started to lag at this point, and with the Jays without Arencibia, Lind, Bautista, and now Snider out of the lineup, it's safe to say that perhaps the Jays would have won the finale (which they lost 5-3) as there were many opportunities for the Jays but the wrong bats were up. Seattle had just come off of a sweep of Kansas and were playing well. Still, the Jays should have won one game in Seattle. This puts the Jays at 52-52 going into Oakland for the four game series, now games back of Oakland.

So, now the Jays in Oakland and in the first game they lost 4-1 against Alvarez. Cooper went 1-3 (in place of Lind, Gose went 1-4 in place of Bautista, and Gomes went 0-4). Perhaps two hits would have been added by the senior jays. I think they could have won this game as they were threatening a few times where Bautista / Arencibia would have been at bat instead of Gose / Gomes. The Jays win this one if their line up was intact.

The August 3rd game was the 15 inning affair where the Jays lost Lawrie and Rasmus and was the breaking point truly for this team. Still, I will put this in the loss column for the Jays just because I don't think the Jays get out of Oakland with less than one loss. So the Jays go 3-1 in Oakland instead of 2-2, and the Jays are 55-53 out of Oakland (Oakland is then 57-51). This puts the Jays two game out of a wild card spot going into Tampa.

Tampa has never been good to the Jays (7 years since they won a series there), so I am going to put them 1-2 in the series instead of 0-3 (I think the Jays beat Cobb on the Wednesday night game). Jays are 56-55 out of Tampa (who are then 58-53) and are still only three games back of the wild card spot.

Time for a reality check -- It's reasonable that the Jays would go 5-5 on the road. Oakland did not play very well, and the Jays should have taken that series. And winning 2 of 6 against Seattle and Tampa is reasonable.

The Jays then go home to face the Yankees in last weekend's series sans Lawrie, Rasmus, Bautista, Arencibia, and Lind. The Yankees would have won the opener anyway as they won 10-4. The Jays probably don't take Saturday's game either. So, the result of this series remains the same at 1-2. Jays would by 57-57 after New York, 4 games back of a wild card (Tampa would be 61-53, Baltimore 62-53). Also ahead of Toronto: Oakland (60-54), Detroit (61-54) and the Angels (60-55).

This takes us to the current series. It's safe to say I think that the Jays win Tuesday night's game (they lost 3-2) as they were threatening several times and couldn't convert. This puts the Jays right now going into tonight's game at 59-58, 5 games back of Baltimore, 3 back of Tampa (62-55), 2.5 back of Detroit (63-55), 1.5 back of the Angels (62-56) and 1/2 game back of Oakland (60-56).

So, without the injuries, I beleive that the Jays get one win back from each of Seattle, Oakland, Tampa, and Chicago. Instead of the Jays being 55-62, they are 59-58, three games back of a wild card. And I think that this number is bang on. They were .500 going into the Baustista injury and the improvements that the team made at the deadline would not have drastically improved this number.

At the trade deadline, Anthopoulos gave up on the Jays by not adding a good (sorry, Happ) veteran arm to the rotation while other contenders did. He did not believe that the Jays were a contending team being 4 games back just before the Jays left for the west coast.

When you look at the standings today, even with the four extra wins, the Jays would have needed to get by four other teams who would still be doing better than them. Detroit or Tampa are projected to have 87 wins and that's the magic number (Probably it is 88). For the Jays to hit that, they would have needed to go 28-17 against a very difficult schedule. Not impossible, but not likely either.

Wilner would call a team 3, 4, even 5 games out of a wild card a contending team. But given the number of wins they would have to take to make the wild card and the teams that they would have to pass, I would not have called them a contender on July 16th, and I wouldn't have called them a contender today even with 59 wins.  

So yep, blames the injuries for the Jays woes. It's the sad truth, but even without the injuries to the starting lineup, the Jays probably would not be contenders.

Were the Blue Jays doomed from the start?

What went wrong?

The Jays season looked promising enough: a great spring training at 25-7, with good performances by a number of starters, good performances by the starters, and a fairly healthy team, with McGowan the only culprit with a sore foot. The team was stronger than last year, with Brett Lawrie being the regular third baseman, a decent hitting Adam Lind, and a strong Colby Rasmus in center field. Bautista was back, and Encarnacion was also hitting well. Arencibia was back for his second full season, defensively much better. Anthopoulos went out and got proven bullpen in Darren Oliver, signed Casey Janssen to a two year extension, got back Jason Frasor, and acquired Cordero who had 37 saves for the Reds last year, and Sergio Santos who had 30 saves for the White Sox. Things were looking up.

And the fans bought into the hype too, buying 22% more tickets than last year (the rest of the league is up 4%) on the hopes of a team competing in the AL East vs a hurt Red Sox, a rebuilding Tampa Bay, and a mediocre Orioles team.

The team really received a one-two punch that did them in for the season. The one punch was losing three of their starters in one week, which I believe led to the demise of Ricky Romero due to the intense pressure for him to perform (the pressure he put on himself -- after the win at Miami on June 22, he has yet to win a game. The bats came to life however and left the team around the .500 mark with hope really slipping away game by game as they stayed roughly five games back of the wild card mark.

But the #2 punch happened on July 26th, when Arencibia broke his hand and Lind left the same night with a sore back. From that point, the team has hit a breaking point. Add to that outages by Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus and you have a team full of not-ready-for-prime time players to fill the spots. It is easy for good pitchers to pitch around a team when you have only four major league players in your line up. Snider's trade away didn't help team morale either.

Now the fans are blaming AA and Rogers for not spending the money on the Jays. Clearly, Rogers is afraid to sign blockbuster agreements. They dumped Vernon Wells' contract (fantastic move) and Alex Rios (good move). Bautista and Encarnacion's contracts are steals and most MLB analysts thing that those contracts are extremely good values for the Jays. They traded away Halladay. And I've explained in another post that the Jays activities represent about 1% of the total action within Rogers Communications, Inc, but the expectation is that they will be profitable. So, the fans are right. The only way that the Jays will spend some money is to build up the team slowly through value, and the team has indeed been making strides in that direction with their payroll slowly on the uptick to correspond with their revenue. The blame is fair, but do you want the Jays to be the New York Yankees? Do you want to spend an average of $63 for a ticket (current is $26)?

My view is that AA took a risk in not signing a veteran onto the pitching staff -- the rotation was too young, with three rookies and new rookies, and a fragile Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow. His gamble failed. A veteran might have not been a good value on paper, but might have stabilized the rotation. I can't fault AA with the initial bullpen choices. Having both Santos and Cordero imploding was not predictable -- it was just bad luck, and it took Farrell time to realize that Janssen and Oliver was up to the task of closer/setup after giving Cordero a reasonable amount of time to prove himself (and fail). Add to that Perez's season ending injury which complicated matters. The depth at relief also took time to resolve, and the Jays pretty much tried everybody on the AAA and AA farm to see if they were ready -- all kinds of relievers came up from AAA and went back down. Chavez, Beck, Carreno, Coello, Andrew Carpenter, Crawford, Pauley, Richmond -- none were ready. Finally, the Jays settled on Loup and had to trade for Lincoln, Delabar, and Lyon -- because no one from the farm was able to step up to the task in the bullpen. And on the starting rotation, Cecil and Laffey make decent #5 starters to replace Drabek and Hutchinson, but there really was no one of Morrow's calibre that was able to step up to the task.

On the hitting side, Lind failed until his return from AAA. He went on waivers and no one claimed him. No one stepped up to the task of being a star left-fielder, and just went it looked like Snider was up to stay, he was traded for the necessary relievers. There were slow starts by Rasmus, Arencibia and Bautista, and both Escobar and Johnson have be somewhat lacklustre. Only Edwin has really really impressed.

Let's face it though -- the injuries would have been insurmountable to any team. I am sure the Yankees would be on a major slump if they lost Cano (their best hitter), A-Rod, Texiera, Granderson, and Russell Martin. The injuries are the culprit here.

And it is clear that the depth of the farm is not there. Many have come up from AAA and AA to pitch and have failed, necessitating AA to go out and trade Snider and Thames. The AAA hitters who have come up have all failed to impress with the exception of Moises. Had the farm been ready with major-league ready relievers and hitters, the Jays would be all right.

So, you ask the question, did AA make bad acquisitions and overhyped the farm system, or did the players fail the Jays in their performances in the MLB? I would blame the players. The farm system has improved vastly over the years in their records and their independent ranks as prospects. But really, the end indicator of the value of a player is their performance in the majors. So, I can't blame AA for the farm acquisitions, but I will blame the players as a whole for failing to step up at the major league level.

In the end, the Jays season went wrong due to a vast and unheard of number of injuries. And the players really didn't step up before the pitchers went down in mid-June. Besides Anthopoulos acquiring a veteran pitcher in the offseason, I really can't fault him for doing anything wrong. And as long as Rogers continues ownership of the Jays, and they will for a long time, their spending will be conservative in nature. I really believe that the Jays will pull the trigger at the trade deadline if they believe they will make the post season -- the increase in ticket sales, playoff games, and ratings will recover the cost -- it makes economic sense to do so. But it makes no sense to Rogers Media to spend $150 million on player salaries when the team is only pulling in $160 million in revenue. Until that point in time, expect AA to stay the course and make spending decisions based on value, not on emotion.

Hutchinson, McGowan done

Lind expected back on Friday

In Blue Jays news today, it was revealed that Drew Hutchinson and Dustin McGowan are both going to undergo season-ending surgery, according to Brendan Kennedy of the Star today.

Drew Hutchinson (5-3, 4.65 ERA, 1.347 WHIP) exited the game on June 16th after 12 pitches with right elbow pain. After attempting a rehab program, Hutchinson will punch the Jays "frequent surgery" card with Dr. Andrews and undergo Tommy John surgery. He won't be back until at least next August. Hutchinson played a very limited amount of time in the junior leagues before getting the #5 start. He was showing improvements with pitch selection and location before his injury.

Dustin McGowan injured his foot in spring training, but as the rehab program progressed, his shoulder faultered as he experienced pain as his throwing program progressed. Dustin has always been a Jay, drafted in 2000, but he has seen 5 games of major league action in the past 4 years. He had moments of greatness: a 1 hitter against Colorado on June 24, 2007 and two other complete games. But I think that perhaps it is time to close the book on Dustin -- just not enough time at the major league level to bring him back. But on the other hand, the money is already spent, and there has been a very heavy investment in this guy. But I think the Jays fandom can't count on him except to be an added bonus if he remains healthy.

Brandon Morrow, meanwhile, is on his way back. He will likely start for the Fisher Cats on Wednesday or Thursday and make 1 or 2 more starts until he comes back. That puts him back starting towards the end of the month if all goes well in New Hampshire. Henderson Alverez probably has 6-7 more starts left before he hits his innings limit (which is about 175, he has 131 now). I also doubt that Carlos Villanueva will make it to the end of the season either. I am hoping that the Jays are careful with their remaining arms and take out Alvarez when Morrow comes back, and perhaps use Chad Jenkins at the end of the season to start for Carlos.

Meanwhile, Barry Davis tweets that Adam Lind may be back in the lineup against the Yankees on Friday. Jose Bautista has yet to resume batting practice after feeling more discomfort in his hand last week. I am guessing that the Jays don't see Bautista in the lineup again until the end of the month. Adam Lind stated that he'll likely be playing with discomfort for the rest of the season, and I'm wondering if that's a hint that he will be at DH leaving Edwin to play 1st for the rest of the year.

Sigh. So much hope at the beginning of the season.

Boo Jays - State of the Jaysdom

Injury and Insult?

When the Toronto Blue Jays came out of the preseason, they were looking hot. Brett Lawrie, at age 21, became the voice of the club, attracting young fans. Attendance is up over 20% (league attendance is up 5%). The preseason was great. Blue Jays fandom was looking for a good season, and the addition of the 2nd wild card represented great hope for the club. Your bench players were Visquel, Davis, and Mathis, which were upgrades over last year.

Rogers Media overhauled its messaging, stating that the the AL east was going to be closest in years, delivered some dramatic music, and off went the season, with a new closer in Sergio Santos and a very young rotation featuring Alvarez, Drabek, and Hutchinson in the back of the rotation.


This season is all about inconsistency. There was lacklustre hitting and blown saves in April. Lind, Bautista, Arencibia, and Yunel had poor starts. May was better but Thames and Lind were still awful. Walks were a problem. At the end of May, the Jays were 3 games over .500 and looking pretty good. Morrow was coming together. Hutchinson had adjusted and was starting to reimprove. Lind got demoted and up came Cooper or Gomes.


June started with optimism but then with the departures of Morrow, Drabek, and Hutchinson in the same week, it all started to unravel a bit. In came Cecil, Laffey, and Villanueva to pick up the slack, with only Carlos Del V doing excellent in the role. But despite the pitching outages, the Jays offense picked up the slack, and Bautista and Arencibia started hitting the cover off the ball to keep the ship afloat. Even Lind came back and was doing really well.


But then Bautista went down and alarm bells went off. The Yankees completed its sweep, and the Jays came back and completed the sweep against Boston, giving the fandom hope. Then Lind went down with back pain, and Arencibia suffered from a freak accident. Down were the #1, 5, and 6 hitters in the 2nd half (measured by OPS). Then Travis Snider got traded along with Thames and the #4 hitter was gone, leaving Rajai Davis and Edwin as the top two hitters on the team (2nd half).


So, what should Anthopolous have done? If you were the Jays upper management, what would you do.


First, realize that Anthopolous cannot simply go out and rent players, because alas (see previous post), AA reports to Rogers Media, which reports to Rogers Communications. The Blue Jays and Rogers Centre brought in 160 million in revenue last year. There will be increased revenue of about $12 million or so from increased ticket sales which AA will probably be able to use to purchase a pitcher in the off season.


And, really, even if AA went out and rented two batters (left field and 1st) and two starters (Garza, Dempster) where would hte Jays stand with 58 games to go. They have to pass 5 teams and win 5 more games then ALL of them, essentially having to win 2 of 3 to make the playoffs. Even the best team in baseball wins 3 of 5, so it would have taken luck and skill to pull them off. And the Jays would have given away its top prospects for a long shot possibility to have a 50/50 shot to make the post season. And Romero has fallen apart, going 1-8 since the Jays pitching debacle and an ERA approaching 9. So really, you can't blame AA for not going for broke at the deadline, and during the first three months of the season, you really can't pick up anyone.


No, not this year. Not this team. The team needed consistency and to perform better with the resources they had back in April. And now there are too many injuries and they are too far back.


In my opinion if AA can be criticized for anything, it's for not scoring a veteran starter in the last off-season. With Hutchinson, Alvarez, and Drabek being the back end of the starting rotation, everyone knew that there was a good chance that at least one of them would fail. And Drabek pretty much did, and the farm seemed to dry up. Carreno and Chavez didn't start well. Cecil is getting better, but has yet to perform, and while Villanueva is doing very well, the long reliever position suffered.


Snider and Thames' departure is a product of AA needing long term relievers, which is a result of Perez's season ending surgery, Villanueva's move to the starting rotation, and Santos' injury. I am sure that AA would have rather gotten a decent starter for both, but the market for starting pitching was just too expensive. The Jays will likely try to stretch out Lincoln again into a starter. Happ may also be a starter.


As for Snider (and Thames), the fans are sad to see him go, and most analysts are pretty critical of both the Jays and Snider of the inability to connect. The Jays didn't really give Snider a chance, and Snider really never proved himself at the major league level.


Once Bautista is back (hopefully at home by the end of next week), the Jays will send down Sierra and platoon Gose and Davis in left field or perhaps let Gose start in center and move Rasmus to left. The Jays will either go with six starters and seven relievers or five starters and eight relievers until the end of the year and leave a short bench for the rest of August (until the reinforcements can be added for September). Morrow will be back in three weeks, and perhaps we'll see Hutchinson in mid-September to take over for Alvarez who will be shut down.


In the end, the Jays will probably finish at .500 this year and the end result will be chalked up to injury and inconsistency. The fandom will argue about the effectiveness of Alex Anthopolous and John Farrell this year, but really, you gotta look at the injuries and the inconsistency, little of which are in Alex' control.