And now, the 2013 pitchers (no wait, it's 2014, right?)

Not one new face -- how can we hope for anything different

One of the biggest off-season failures for Alex Anthopolous was his complete inability to replace Josh Johnson with someone who would put some serenity back into the rotation, instead electing to go with the (lack of) talent already existing on the team.

While the 'pen is seemingly loaded with talent, the starting rotation seems completely iffy, at best, with big question marks around Brandon Morrow, Drew Hutchinson, and Dustin McGowan. Meanwhile, RA Dickey's knuckler will continue to be inconsistently baffling while Mark Buehrle will be his usual #3 innings eater self.

It is this lack of a starting rotation featuring no true "ace", a decent #3, the potential of greatness never realized, and two number five starters, both of which are injury prone, will do in the Jays. Its insurance policy, once again, is the relief core, who I predict will be overtaxed and overburdened by short starts combined with Gibbons propensity to pull pitchers from games way too early.

And it will cost the Jays the season, and the only person you can fault for that is Alex. If last year wasn't going to be the year for the Jays to make the playoffs, this year is. Next year is the last year of the core of the team to be together, and they are not getting younger.

As Paul Beeston promised to its season ticket holders in 2012, "In the next five years, I would expect that we would be in it two to three times," Beeston said. 

The problem is that it will take a miracle for this rotation to hold up this year.

The Starters

RA Dickey (14-13, 224.2 IP, 4.21 ERA, 1.217 WHIP in 2013) needs to have a much better year as the ace of this club. And with a knuckler, it is really difficult to know if this year will be any better than last. The Home Run was his enemy, 23 of 35 of them at Rogers Centre, and this is what truly killed him. With the WHIP being the same as they were during his 2012 year, it is the home run at home (that should be routine fly balls) that is hurting him. We will see if he makes an adjustment, but how do you adjust a knuckleball?

Mark Buehrle (12-10, 203.2 IP, 4.15 ERA, 1.315 WHIP in 2013) was consistent. There was fear that the AL East opponents would hurt him coming over from the NL, and that fear was realized. In 16 starts against the AL east, he went 2-8 with a 5.42 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. This number must improve if the Jays wish to compete. Against the rest, he went 10-2 with a 3.56 ERA and a WHIP of 1.25 -- very different numbers indeed.

Brandon Morrow (2-3, 54.1 IP, 5.63 ERA, injured in 2013) is one question mark for this team. After being sidelined last year by a entrapped radial nerve, his spring didn't look all that well either until his appearance against the Mets in Montreal. We all remember his potential with his incredible one hitter on August 8, 2010 when he threw 137 pitches. And we know this guy has incredible stuff. From last year and the year before, I also see that he is a very smart pitcher, using different pitches to get outs especially when he knows that one of his pitches isn't working. And that's what I love about Brandon Morrow. I actually think that if he remains healthy, that he will have an incredible year. Just remember 2012, when, before his left oblique strain in early June, he had pitched three shutouts in 10 starts. He is more than capable. 

Drew Hutchison (no action in 2013) is another question mark for the Jays. In 2012, before his Tommy John surgery, he featured #5 starter skills, going 5-3 with a 4.60 ERA. He has had a standout spring but he cannot possibly throw a full season as a SP. Still, I see some beginner's luck for Drew and a decent first half before his arm wears and the league figures him out. I expect that JA Happ or another AAA person will replace him around the all-star break.

Dustin McGowan (no meaningful action in 2013) is the final question mark for the Jays. The question mark is "why is he starting? With 4 innings of work in spring training and a maximum of 32 pitches pitched in an outing last year? For the Jays, it's a sentimental outing, a welcome back. Given the failures of Happ, Drabek, Romero, Stroman, and Rogers, I think this might be McGowan's ONLY start. Despite the obvious sentimental heartstrings being pulled, is it the best baseball move for the Jays? No. I predict Dusty to be relegated back to the 'pen (or to Buffalo) after two-three starts with a promotion from one of the Bison crews.

The relievers

Casey Janssen -- the closer. Janssen is not a hard thrower, but he's crafty and will continue to be the team's very capable closer. Going 34 for 36 in saves, he established himself as the closer in 2012 and will continue to shine. 

Brett Cecil, with last year's all-star appearance completed his transformation from starter to reliever is complete. This lefty dumfounds lefties while right-handers tend to get big hits against him but he is still effective. Brett will be used later in games against left-handed batters and will be particularly effective in games when right-handers are starting and the starting lineups of the opposition are filled with left handed bats.

Steve Delabar, now in his third year with the Jays, is a capable right handed reliever with very nasty stuff.

Jeremy Jeffress has a 100mph fastball and only remains on the roster because he it out of options. Expect to see him in Jays where the Jays are not competing in a game (win or lose) or as a situational hitter against a right hand threat.

Aaron Loup -- the wiley left-hander and his eclectic side-arm delivery continues to throw off hitters and with his 2.45 ERA last year, he will be an important part of a bridge between the starters and the closers and the relievers or when the team is down. 

Todd Redmond -- (long relief / spot starter) will likely be the #5 starter after the home opener. He started 14 games last year with 77 IP and a 4.32 ERA and did not have a terrible spring to demote him to long relief. The only reason I think Todd is not the #5 starter is because of the sentimentality of McGowan.

Esmil Rogers -- (long relief / spot starter) did not earn a starting role this spring with terrible performance. He will start in the bullpen and may return back to a starter role replacing either Dustin McGowan or Drew Hutchinson as a mid-season starter.

Sergio Santos is to be Casey's setup man with an impressive repertoire and the ability to strike out players.
 

The outliers

Look for JA Happ's return in mid-season. Kyle Drabek and Rickey Romero will need to have a string of excellent games in AAA to be promoted, and only in case of injuries to one or more of the starters. I expect Romero's return to be slow and will need to prove himself over a string of starts in Buffalo. 

Chad Jenkins, Neil Wagner, Deck McGuire, and Sean Nolin are all relievers who right now are on the outside looking in. With the relief core being as strong as they are, I don't see them advancing to the majors unless there's many injuries.

August 31: Tampa 1, Blue Jays 2

Practice makes perfect as Mathis and outfield connect to save the game

The Jays are looking like a team again. With their offense still being inconsistent, the pitching and defense would have to be fantastic to beat the Rays. But the Rays offense hasn't exactly been consistent either. This afternoon, before batting practice, John Farrell had his outfielders out there throwing balls home in order to improve the throws into the infield, which have been pretty poor as of late. Turns out that the training was timely.

Brandon Morrow started the game, his second game back, and this outing was very good, not lights out by any stretch, but very good, getting key outs when required. In all, Morrow went 6 2/3rds, throwing 102 pitches, striking out 5 and walking one. All of his pitches were working. He sprinkled 8 hits in the inning, and the only damage done was Desmond Jennings home run to open the top of the third to give Tampa a temporary 1-0 lead.

Steve Delabar was perfect coming on with two out in the bottom of the 7th to induce a grounder, and then to pitch the 8th to strike out Zobrist, Longoria, and Joyce on a very nasty combination of changeups and fastballs that just fooled the Rays.

Tampa's Hellickson was much better on the mound, but two home runs by Moises Sierra (to reply, opening the bottom of the 3rd), and Edwin Encarnacion (in the bottom of the 4th, bases empty, one out) to the 200 level in centre-left was enough for the Jays to win it tonight. Hellickson walked 1, struck out 2, and surrendered 2 more hits (a single to Encarnacion to open the 7th, and an Adam Lind single after the Encarnacion home run).

Off the hit sheet was Colby Rasmus (again, now not hitting in 4 games), now hitting 0-12 in his last four games with 4Ks and a walk. Yunel's hitting streak also ended. Rajai, Mathis, and McCoy also did nothing offensively.

Defensively, in the first, McCoy bobbled a Ben Zobrist double play ball but managed to get the speedy Zobrist out. And, in the top of the fourth, Colby couldn't outrun a Ryan Roberts hit into centre-left, which I think he catches if his groin was completely better. And in the top of the 7th, Rajai went all out to catch a Desmond Jennings line drive into left which ended up going to the wall for a double. It would have been nice to catch that. None of these, thankfully did no damage.

Jeff Mathis tags out Matt Joyce at home
(Rogers SportsNet)

But there were two fantastic defensive highlights in the game. The first was in the top of the 2nd with Keppinger on 1st and Matt Joyce on 2nd with one out. Ryan Roberts hit a single to left, and with Matt Joyce running, typically, Rajai makes a throw that ends up bouncing a few times or is 20 feet left or right of home plate. Not this time. Rajai throws a single bounce strike to the plate which Mathis picks up, blocks the plate, and tags Matt Joyce who barreled Mathis at home. Out!!!



Jeff Mathis tags out Elliott Johnson to end the game
(Rogers Sportsnet)



The last defensive play ended the game. With pinch runner Elliot Johnson on 2nd and pinch hitter Carlos Pena up with two out, he lined a Janssen 1-1 fastball single to Moises Sierra. With Elliott running home, Moises picked up the ball and fired a one bounce strike to Jeff Mathis, just in time for Mathis to once again block the plate and apply the tag to a diving Elliot Johnson to record the out and end the game and secure the 19th save of the season for Casey Janssen.

Well, this series is a guaranteed push for Toronto. It would be great to see the bats come out tomorrow, and with an Alvarez coming off of two very poor starts and Jeff Niemann making his first start for Tampa since Adam Lind broke Niemann's ankle with a sharp comeback to the mound on May 14th. Look for a high scoring game.

Boo Jays - State of the Jaysdom

Injury and Insult?

When the Toronto Blue Jays came out of the preseason, they were looking hot. Brett Lawrie, at age 21, became the voice of the club, attracting young fans. Attendance is up over 20% (league attendance is up 5%). The preseason was great. Blue Jays fandom was looking for a good season, and the addition of the 2nd wild card represented great hope for the club. Your bench players were Visquel, Davis, and Mathis, which were upgrades over last year.

Rogers Media overhauled its messaging, stating that the the AL east was going to be closest in years, delivered some dramatic music, and off went the season, with a new closer in Sergio Santos and a very young rotation featuring Alvarez, Drabek, and Hutchinson in the back of the rotation.


This season is all about inconsistency. There was lacklustre hitting and blown saves in April. Lind, Bautista, Arencibia, and Yunel had poor starts. May was better but Thames and Lind were still awful. Walks were a problem. At the end of May, the Jays were 3 games over .500 and looking pretty good. Morrow was coming together. Hutchinson had adjusted and was starting to reimprove. Lind got demoted and up came Cooper or Gomes.


June started with optimism but then with the departures of Morrow, Drabek, and Hutchinson in the same week, it all started to unravel a bit. In came Cecil, Laffey, and Villanueva to pick up the slack, with only Carlos Del V doing excellent in the role. But despite the pitching outages, the Jays offense picked up the slack, and Bautista and Arencibia started hitting the cover off the ball to keep the ship afloat. Even Lind came back and was doing really well.


But then Bautista went down and alarm bells went off. The Yankees completed its sweep, and the Jays came back and completed the sweep against Boston, giving the fandom hope. Then Lind went down with back pain, and Arencibia suffered from a freak accident. Down were the #1, 5, and 6 hitters in the 2nd half (measured by OPS). Then Travis Snider got traded along with Thames and the #4 hitter was gone, leaving Rajai Davis and Edwin as the top two hitters on the team (2nd half).


So, what should Anthopolous have done? If you were the Jays upper management, what would you do.


First, realize that Anthopolous cannot simply go out and rent players, because alas (see previous post), AA reports to Rogers Media, which reports to Rogers Communications. The Blue Jays and Rogers Centre brought in 160 million in revenue last year. There will be increased revenue of about $12 million or so from increased ticket sales which AA will probably be able to use to purchase a pitcher in the off season.


And, really, even if AA went out and rented two batters (left field and 1st) and two starters (Garza, Dempster) where would hte Jays stand with 58 games to go. They have to pass 5 teams and win 5 more games then ALL of them, essentially having to win 2 of 3 to make the playoffs. Even the best team in baseball wins 3 of 5, so it would have taken luck and skill to pull them off. And the Jays would have given away its top prospects for a long shot possibility to have a 50/50 shot to make the post season. And Romero has fallen apart, going 1-8 since the Jays pitching debacle and an ERA approaching 9. So really, you can't blame AA for not going for broke at the deadline, and during the first three months of the season, you really can't pick up anyone.


No, not this year. Not this team. The team needed consistency and to perform better with the resources they had back in April. And now there are too many injuries and they are too far back.


In my opinion if AA can be criticized for anything, it's for not scoring a veteran starter in the last off-season. With Hutchinson, Alvarez, and Drabek being the back end of the starting rotation, everyone knew that there was a good chance that at least one of them would fail. And Drabek pretty much did, and the farm seemed to dry up. Carreno and Chavez didn't start well. Cecil is getting better, but has yet to perform, and while Villanueva is doing very well, the long reliever position suffered.


Snider and Thames' departure is a product of AA needing long term relievers, which is a result of Perez's season ending surgery, Villanueva's move to the starting rotation, and Santos' injury. I am sure that AA would have rather gotten a decent starter for both, but the market for starting pitching was just too expensive. The Jays will likely try to stretch out Lincoln again into a starter. Happ may also be a starter.


As for Snider (and Thames), the fans are sad to see him go, and most analysts are pretty critical of both the Jays and Snider of the inability to connect. The Jays didn't really give Snider a chance, and Snider really never proved himself at the major league level.


Once Bautista is back (hopefully at home by the end of next week), the Jays will send down Sierra and platoon Gose and Davis in left field or perhaps let Gose start in center and move Rasmus to left. The Jays will either go with six starters and seven relievers or five starters and eight relievers until the end of the year and leave a short bench for the rest of August (until the reinforcements can be added for September). Morrow will be back in three weeks, and perhaps we'll see Hutchinson in mid-September to take over for Alvarez who will be shut down.


In the end, the Jays will probably finish at .500 this year and the end result will be chalked up to injury and inconsistency. The fandom will argue about the effectiveness of Alex Anthopolous and John Farrell this year, but really, you gotta look at the injuries and the inconsistency, little of which are in Alex' control.