Okay. They lost one. So what.

The best teams in baseball win games, the worst teams do too.

When you think about the best teams in baseball, you find that a 1st place team is only going win about 100 games in a season at best -- 108 is really really good. Conversely, the worst teams in baseball might get away with 60 wins -- 54 is really really bad.

So, how do bad teams win and great teams lose games?

Dumb luck

Sometimes, teams win games due to dumb luck: a caught line drive by a fielder in a exactly the right place can save two runs while a blooper to left field can score two runs, which is precisely what happened to the Jays against Colorado on June 17th. In the top of the 8th inning, Colorado had runners at 2nd and 3rd with one out and Lind made a wonderful play to catch a smoked line drive. In the bottom half of that inning, Maicer hit a bloop single to short left which plated Davis and Colby. And that's the difference between a W and a L.

Pitching miscues

You can't expect every Jays starter to go out there and have a quality start every time out. They are going to make mistakes because it is EXTREMELY difficult to pitch well every time you are on the mound. Pitching is extremely mental, but it is physical too. Sometimes your fastball cannot work because you can't connect the mind to the body. That's what happened to Esmil last night, leaving him only with a working breaking ball. It happens.

Hitting outages

What is supposed to happen when your pitching doesn't work is your batting is supposed to pick it up for you. But the bats will run into a pitcher sometimes who stymie you, or you run into a part of the lineup who is just not hitting well (Cabrera and Bautista). If Edwin and Lind have an off night as well then it becomes extremely difficult to manufacture and score runs.

Putting it all together

The fact is that the combination of the three leads to a perfectly playing team to lose 1 game of 3. What happens between winning between 1 and 2 games of 3 is a function of the team's true skill. In the case of the Blue Jays, you are looking at a team with below average infield and LF defense, an unexpectedly overperforming bullpen, an unexpectently underperforming starting rotation, and inconsistency (save Lind and Edwin) in the starting lineup. This leads to a .500 team that is susceptible to streaks.

Bringing back Lawrie and Reyes (and yes, sending down Kawasaki) will improve the IF defence dramatically and should improve the offense too. Putting Edwin at 3rd and letting Cabrera DH for a few days in a row will improve his legs so that he can play better defensively in LF and let Rajai get some playing time. The time to do this (give Cabrera's legs some rest) is now before Lawrie gets back.

The starting rotation is what it is. Lately they've been very good. RA Dickey is not going to have a good season and there's no improvement. Josh Johnson I predict will be on fire as he tries to get a monster contract. Mark Buehrle is fine. Esmil Rogers pitched only  75 innings last year and he's only good for about 8 more starts berore he will be pulled. Chien-Ming Wang has been great so far, but we'll see how he does in Boston against his AL East rivals who know him well. By that time (after the All-Star break), reinforcements in Brandon Morrow and JA Happ should be ready.

And offensively, the players need to get on a roll collectively. Bautista has been very streaky, as has Cabrera, Arencibia and Rasmus. Adding Reyes back to the front of the lineup will increase scoring opportunities and speed at the start of the lineup.

Predictions

The Jays have now shown that they are a good team. Defense has improved as Bonfacio, Reyes, and Izturis get used to the turf. Offense is very very good on most nights and will improve with the return of Reyes and then Lawrie. Starting pitching will be an issue for RA Dickey only. The bullpen I think will continue to shine. In short, if the team can score 5 runs a game and the starting pitching can leave the team with a lead after 6 innings this team will win alot of games, many more than they will lose.

My prediction now is that the playoff race for 2nd place in the AL East goes down to the wire, with the Jays fighting it out for the 2nd wild card spot between any one of the four AL east teams, with about 92 wins. The last 15 games that the Jays play are against AL East contenders and I think it's these games that will determine the playoff picture in the AL East. Look for Texas or Oakland to take a wild card spot with whoever finishes in 2nd in the AL East to take the 2nd wild card.

Anthopoulos' state of the obvious

The Jays will get better?



Anthopoulos' career ending mistake? Certainly, not a brilliant move.

Expectations for the 2013 Blue Jays were hyped. With no hockey in the fall and Anthopoulos's moves with the jump in payroll, Torontonians, no Canadians, were hyped up to see Canada's baseball team go to the playoffs, and maybe the World Series.

Instead, the Maples Leafs are going to the playoffs, and the 2013 rendition of the Blue Jays have a very long road ahead of them even to reach .500.

So Anthopoulos met with the media today and made the following severely presiced comments: I'm disappointed, but it will get better. It has to.

The long form of the message is that the individual records of each of these players won't allow this team to continue along this path indefinitely. The starting pitching staff should have an ERA of below 4, and hopefully, it should be around 3.8 or 3.7. Certain offensive players should have on-base percentages much higher than they have: Bonificio, Izturis, Bautista, Melky, and even Colby. The defense should get better.

It just has to, right? Not necessarily.

One has to look at WHY the team, collectively, started off as poorly as they did.

Starting pitching

Mark Buehrle, though Mr. Reliable has had bouts of poor pitching. In five starts with the Marlins last year (July 19 - August 10), he went 0-3, pitched 26.1 innings, let in 24 earned runs, and was terrible. Over the final 8 starts, he averaged 6.9 innings per start with a 3.58 ERA. So let's not worry about Mark Buehrle.

RA Dickey's slow start (4.50 ERA) is not unique to him either. Last year, from June 24 to July 24, over 6 start (+ 1 extra inning pitched), he had a 5.36 ERA over 40 innings and a WHIP of about 1.4.

Brandon Morrow's start is not too far out of line with 2011 so far, but we're still waiting for him to have a stellar start where he goes deep into the game.

And Josh Johnson has had bad periods of time, with a 6.61 ERA over his first six starts as a Marlin last year.

But four out of five doing poorly together? What's up with that? Coincidence?

The offense

Even with Maicer's recent hitting spurt, both he and Bonifacio are both having their worst months in their MLB career, together, at the same time.

We know that Adam Lind and Colby can be inconsistent at the plate. Colby's strikeout rate, however, at 45% is very disturbing. And while there are have been short spurts in his career where his strike out rate was 40%, this is unprecented.
Jose Bautista has started off his season horribly. He has yet to have a multi-hit game. His strikeout rate is over 25% and there wasn't a stretch of games last year where he struck out as much. But he had a 25 game stretch last year where he bat .146 / .284 / .270 at the beginning of the year (except the first game). At least this year he's hitting home runs. He warmed up last year and there no reason to expect anything differently this year.

Melky has started the season hitting .250 / .303 / .300 and while he had a stretch of 18 games last year early on when he bat .231 / .301 / .308. But Melky is just lacking power, and it's troubling .You can expect that for missing 2 months of the season last year, and there seems to be no sign that he won't be doing worse.

Brett Lawrie will come around. Edwin will be fine. JP Arencibia is striking out alot too (at just below 40%), but he has done that before and been an acceptable hitter, especially for a catcher. He's hitting for power and that's all that can be asked of him.

But once against, why is all of this poorness all coming together? Is this coincidence too?

 

John Gibbons

John Gibbons was fired after the Milwaukee series in June 2008. The team went through a 4-13 run falling 7.5 games back in the standings from being 3 games to 10.5 games back. 8 of those 13 games losses were one run losses, including 3 walk-offs and 1 come from behind and 2 late loss ties. The team was 10-19 in one run games. In his last game in Milwaukee, down 8-1, the team stormed back in the top of the ninth with one on and two out to score six runs, falling short 8-7 and seal Gibbons' fate.

In 2008, despite the .279 BA, the team produced around 4 runs per game. Run production suffered dearly under Gibbons.

Sound familiar?

So I wondering what kind of job John Gibbons is doing, and whether Alex Anthopoulos will do the same thing that JP Ricciardi felt like he had to do: fire John Gibbons.

Looking back at the Miked up blog entries (Mike Wilner's daily writings on the Blue Jays) from 2008, it's pretty clear that some major similarities are happening: run production was a huge issue and the Jays are finding ways to lose, especially late in the game by one run. Why?

Is it beyond luck? Baseball at this level is simply more than about numbers. It's about momentum, spirit, and team.

And with so many players performing below average at the same time, you just feel like it has to do with the coaching staff more than coincidence. And given that this has happened before with the same manager, you have to wonder...

Lineups are changing every day. That has to be a bit disconcerting to the players. Yes, the players are to blame, too, but you can't fire the team. The bullpen is doing fine, and they're not on the bench. I really think that this team is quite down right now, and needs an inspirational leader to lead them through. When the team starts performing poorly collectively, it's up to the managerial staff to fix the problem.

Gibbons doesn't have that capability. He didn't in 2008, and nothing sugggests that he does now, unlike Joe Girardi, who can take a team with severe injuries and put together a winner. Unlike Buck Showalter who has found a way for his Orioles to win a bunch of 1 run games and make the playoffs. Unlike Joe Maddon, and now, perhaps, unlike John Farrell.

The team has got to get better. But will it?

Major Suckage Continue as Jays just not into it

Jays make blunders, hitting continues to suffer

When you look back on the scoresheet, you wonder how the Jays continue to lose close games and wonder how the continuous pressure is feeling on this organization.

As April draws to a close, the Jays stand to open the season with anywhere between 9 and 12 wins and 18 and 15 losses -- A lousy start. In my previous article, I compared the Jays with the 2001 Oakland As who started the season 8-18 to end the season at 102-60.

But when I look at this Blue Jays team, the fundamentals are just not there yet.

Here are what I think are two major problems on the team:

Something is terribly wrong with the hitting

Maicer Izturis and Bonifacio need to have their career-advertised .320+ OBP to be effective, and so far, they've fallen fall short of that. In fact BOTH players are having their career worst months in MLB.

Bonifacio has a paltry .219 OBP for April, his worst month even in the majors except for the first month that he played back in 2008. Certainly, he can do better, and yes, he should be given the opportunity to be better by putting him in the situations he should be playing in: in CF or at 2B against LHP and used later in the game for situtaional ball, as he was today.

Izturis is also having his worst month ever with a .197 OBP.

Brett Lawrie is slowly coming around, and the excuse that he didn't have any spring training holds. There is no evidence that suggests that he is not improving. His OBP is heading in the right direction and his at bats look better.

Rajai Davis is playing to expectations, but positionally, there's no room on the field for him unless you sit Colby, It makes sense to sit Colby and Adam Lind against LHP. In that case, put Rajai in centre and Bonifacio at 2B, or alternatively put Bonifacio in CF, Rajai in LF, and DH Cabrera. But with the way that Bonifacio and Izturis are hitting, you can only afford to put one of them in the lineup and hope that they come around. That forces you to keep Davis in the lineup but with the outfielders all doing very well against RHP, that's not possible to do. A conumdrum for sure, and not one of the good kind.

Melky Cabrera, I believe is also going to be okay. With an OBP of .310 (so far) and a 50+ game suspension last year and his deliberate exlusion from the playoffs, he is only slowly getting back to form. He should be fine.

Edwin is going to be fine, and his bombs in Baltimore and New York show that he's found his swing again.

JP Arencibia has switched into a home run hitter. 40% of his at bats end in strikeouts, compared to his 30% average from the last two years. Given that he's at the top of the leaderboard in home runs, this isn't a bad thing. There is nothing wrong with his .267 BA and playing in 4 of every 5 games is good for him.

Then there's Jose Bautista. Half of his 12 hits have been home runs, and he has yet to hit more than once in a game. He has got to come around and try to get hits instead of bombs especially against tough pitching. He has been unlucky too especially with his ground balls (his BABIP is sub .200). He must improve for this team to get better.

Adam Lind has seemed to develop plate discipline, and hopefully the birth of his second child doesn't destroy that high OBP (close to .400). If he can have a year anything north of his last three years, it will be good.

Kawasaki is doing way more than expected. A replacement level player at best, he's doing very well... too well. As his scouting gets better, expect him to start to do worse. 

And finally, Colby Rasmus. He too is turning into a DH with a strikeout rate at close to 50%. He needs plate discipline but I think it's actually coming along. Does Colby belong at the #2 spot?

Still, for this team, it's a matter of timely hitting. The lineup, as it stands, just isn't stringing hits together. Bautista is usually the 3rd out, leaving bases empty for Edwin. Brett Lawrie and Izturis/Bonifacio need to improve. Average pitchers are looking like aces in front of the Jays, and while there are glimmers of hope and a few comebacks, this team on any given night just looks awful at the plate with the exception of the home run.

I think Gibby is learning what is working and what is not and adjusting his lineup accordingly. He's stuck with putting Maicer or Bonifacio in every game and trotting Kawasaki out there every day to play short. But really, the lineup should be pretty much the same as advertised with a "no-panic" lineup. I don't like the fact that he is switching the lineup everyday.

Which brings me to my second point: Infield defence

The Jays middle infield, frankly, just sucks, and that was before Jose Reyes was struck with injury. Now it really sucks, and Brett Lawrie is not much better (yet), though much faster.

With messed up throws and errors from Lawrie, Bonifacio, Izturis, and Kawasaki, and missed plays because of lack of speed, the infield has cost the Jays several games, as has the poor play of Arencibia. These errors force the pitchers to throw more pressure under higher pressure and cause the team to play from behind. This in turn puts pressure on the team to bat to play catch up and results in higher strike out rates as the players get away from their own ideal fundamentals.

I do like Lawrie's glove, but his decision making to throw the ball results in costly errors. He needs to eat the ball or make better throwing decisions by planting his feet and making accurate throws to first.

And while Kawasaki started out strong, his play at shortstop has now been questionable. It seemed like since he commited his game-losing error against Baltimre, his defense has been suffering.

And both Maicer and Bonifacio's 2B play have been poor. Tonight loss was caused by many, many blunders: 5 walks given up by Laffey, Rajai getting caught stealing 3rd for the third out, the passed ball by Arencibia, the non-play by Kawasaki, the missed play by Lawrie, and the blundered double play by Izturis. The Jays need to play clean defense so that their pitcher can get out of innings more quickly.

I pointed out when Escobar and Johnston were traded that the defense would suffer, and it has greatly. 

What to do

There is really no valid explanation as to why both Izturis and Bonifacio are doing so poorly at the same time, and there is really no valid explanation as to why Lind, Bautista, Rasmus, and Encarnacion had very slow starts to the year.

So you look at the sum of the whole. Each of the players, true, are to blame for their own individual performances, but you have to wonder what effect does the coaching staff have on their players. How is the player's individual relationship with the management affecting their own performance, and collectively, can the relationships between the managers and players affect performance? I think so.

John Gibbons appears to be in panic mode. With the daily switchup of the lineups and his expermentation with the player of the moment being allowed to bat second, I wonder if he's in over his head.

But both the fans and the team need to calm down. Expectations are high, but it's okay if the Jays don't make the playoffs this year. With the Maple Leafs about to start a playoff run, the media and fans will be looking to the ice instead of the field for a while. The pitching staff will be around for another year. Jose Reyes will come back healthy.

But there are a few things they can do:

(1) Goodbye Blanco, hello Thole. Thole is a major league catcher and is outperforming in AAA. It's time to bring him to the show.

(2) Time to trade Colby Rasmus and Bonifacio for a reliable 2B and bring up Gose or Sierra, or to DFA Izturis or Bonifacio and give Jim Negrych a chance. Something defensively has to change.

(3) Take a deep look at the management staff and their style. Don't panic. Keep the lineup the same against RHP and LHP.

(4) Help the players execute the game. Focus. Concentrate. Practice.

The 2001 Oakland Athletics

Are the 2013 Jays the 2001 Oakland Athletics? Who knows?

Jason Giambi.
Oakland started the season at 8-18 before going on
to get 102 wins for the season.

Jays start off 8-13. Are they done?

Rogers apologists like to look at the 2013 rendition of the Jays and say that's it's early. The fandom have all but concluded that this team is done and that drastic measures must be taken.

I took a look at the records of all playoff and likely playoff teams (those teams who would have made an enhanced wild card playoff) and looked for teams who were 5 OR more game under .500 after 20 - 22 games played and looked at the last 17 years of data (1996-2012) when a full season was played with the current division format seen.

Of 170 teams that would have made the playoffs in both leagues, there are 5 instances of playoff teams with 90 or more wins in a season who had a record of 8-13 or worse. That gives the Jays, if they were an average team a 3% probability of making the playoffs assuming 90 wins or more are needed.

These teams include the 2010 Atlanta Braves who started the season 8-13 before going on to win 91 games and a wildcard berth, the 2009 Colorado Rockies with the identical 8-13 record to win 92 and a wildcard, the 2005 Cleveland Indians (91 wins, 5th) and San Francisco Giants (91 wins, 5th). But the most notable comeback in modern memory is the 2001 Oakland Athletics.

The 2001 Oakland Athletics

On April 25, 2001, the Oakland Athletics dropped a 2-1 extra inning game to the White Sox to go to 7-14 on the season. The next game, they whalloped the White Sox 16-6 before losing 3-2, 7-6, and 3-1 to the Yankees over a three game sweep. Then they went home to host Buck Martinez's Jays on May 1 where they dropped a 5-4 affair and their record dropped to a dismal 8-18.

This was a team whose lineup at that point featured Johnny Damon (OPS .549), Frank Menechino (1.040), Jason Giambi (1.135), Terrence Long (.926), Eric Chavez (.742), Miquel Tejada (.748), Olmedo Saenz (.699), Jeremy Giambi (.556), and Ramon Hernanzez (.616).

In April, the A's starters had an (.288/.359/.460) line and a 5.83 ERA which improved massively to 3.10 after the All Star Break. This was a rotation of Mark Mulder (4.40 ERA), Barry Zito (4.58 ERA), Cory Lidle (4.96), Tim Hudson (6.35) and Gil Heredia (9.24). Gil was eventually replaced by Eric Hiljus.

The team then went on a 15-5 tear, sweeping the Jays in Toronto, the Yankees and the White Sox. But even then, the team hovered around the .500 mark until the All-Star break - the team was 44-43 and 19 games back of the high-flying Mariners.

The team went 58-17 to wrap the season with 102 wins. Jeremy Giambi ended up batting with an OPS of .841. They still managed to lose the division to the Seattle Mariners but made the playoffs before losing to the Yankees in the ALDS.

The Jays are actually a good team

On paper, this team certainly has the capability to turn it around. The Jays' offense is sputtering but the starting rotation has shown their talent now to keep the Jays in the game and the bullpen has been surprisingly good as well. Now it is up to Gibbons and the offense to start moving and start scoring more than 4 runs a game on a consistent basis and to start winning close games.

Someone has to step up to the plate to become the leadoff hitter and Gibby has to leave them there. I don't like the momentary lineups based on a streak of 3-4 games. That just shakes up the hitters and shows that Gibby is panicking. Gibby needs to decide on a leadoff tandem to start the game leading off and just leave it as it is. Those person is the duo of Bonifacio and Davis (Davis faces LHP, Bonifacio RHP).

Bonfacio is a lead off hitter and has played the majority of his career leading off. With Jose gone, put Bonifacio in the #1 spot and let his true talent show. Emilio is NOT A BUM, but he is certainly lacking plate discipline right now. His career walk / strike out ratio is close to 1:2 (not the 1:6 it is currently). Let him play against RHP, and let Rajai play against LHP. The speed will and the stolen base will be factors, which will only help Cabrera, who should be left in the #2 hole.

These are really your best options, and putting Kawasaki in the leadoff spot is insanity. His numbers are rapidly coming down to earth.

Let the long term numbers play themselves out and give your players a chance to gel. Don't hit the panic button *yet*. Wait a week.

What to do about them Boo Jays?

It's been quite disappointing to watch the 7-11 Blue Jays muddle through the very young season, and the Rogers apologists think that there's no reason to worry, but there is.

For the Jays to make the playoffs they will need to go at least 86-58 to reach 93 wins, and even that might not be enough. That's a .600 record. Are the Jays  on the field today capable of playing .600 ball. Absolutely. But will they? Absolutely not.

The good

There are bright spots on this team, to be sure. We know that the starting rotation are CAPABLE of great starts, and we've seen the bright spots from Dickey, Johnson, and Morrow. We know that Mark Buehrle is a 4 ERA pitcher in the AL, and that means we should expect at least 1/2 of his starts to be quality ones. And JA Happ is the #5 starter and anything under a 5 ERA is good for him.

We know that JP Arencibia and Jose Bautista are performing to expectations, each putting bombs out of the park. We also see patches of sunshine from Adam Lind and Edwin and hopefully that will become consistent as the season wears on. We know that Adam is streaky and we'll need to see how that plays out over the season.

A welcome suprpise is the bullpen. Janssen, Delebar, Loup, Rogers, Cecil, and Santos are performing better than expected. Darren Oliver has been shaky, but the bullpen as a whole has been very good, especially given the early season pressure.

The ugly

But we've seen blowouts from each of the pitchers too. It's easy to point at the defense tell them to do their job, and indeed, defence is lacking when Jose is not playing right field and with a hole at 2B. But it's the pitcher's job to make sure they don't get on base. I attribute 4 of 11 losses to awful starts. Dickey's initial outing was bad because Arencibia clearly couldn't catch the knuckleball in front of 50,000 people.

The other losses were due to lack of hitting. This team should be hitting much better than they are. You can excuse the team for giving up in the blowouts, absolutely. But when you're consistently not outputting runs, you are not going to win games, and you can't always stick it into your bullpen's or defense's hands to be perfect in order to hold a tie game or a slim lead all of the time because you can't score. The bullpen and defence are the weaker parts of this team, especially at 2B (all the time) and when Bautista's not playing RF. 


Edwin started the season with a drought and has warmed up, as has Adam Lind. Rasmus, who, when he makes contact with the ball, REALLY makes contact and is batting like a DH with tons of strike outs. The problem is that Jose Bautista and JP Arencibia have the same hitting style, meaning a low OBP and the inability to string together hits to score plenty of runs.

And when the rest of the team isn't hitting around you, the home runs are not meaningful. Brett Lawrie (who inexplicitly bat 6th when just getting back into MLB action) will get better.

But there are other players on the team who are underperforming. Melky's start has been bad as well with a complete outage of power for the #2 spot in the lineup.
With Reyes and Bautista out of the line up for a time, there was certainly weakness in the line up that left Cabrera unprotected, meaning that they could really focus on him, because the threats around him were fairly weak.
Emilio Bonifacio needs to step up his game: a .232 OBP is unacceptable for a player who has above .300 in OBP for the last five seasons. His fielding has been atricious, especially at 2B. The same message goes to Maicer, with his .200 OBP so far. His career OBP has been above .320 for each of the last six seasons. Something is wrong here. Rajai's been good, and he deserves every day action because he's just as fast as Bonifacio, gets on base more, and is not a defensive liability. The problem with Rajai of course is that he's weak against RHP.

Blame the Coaching Staff?

So who do you blame? It's easy to say it's the coaching staff and in particular the change out of Mottola for Murphy. Maybe so. Sportsnet staff are quick to point out how a coach has been helping out a player. If that is the case, then why is the team suffering as a whole?

Certainly you can blame managerial staff for poor decisions. That includes putting the wrong people in the lineup, making poor choices for pitching changes, and being too aggressive or not aggressive enough on the baselines. For example, Brett Lawrie is finally hitting #8 in the lineup today. Why would you throw him in the six spot when he has NO MLB experience this year in hitting? 

But players who are performing well just need maintenance when it comes to coaching, and if you're a good player, you will continue to be good. If you're performing poorly, you're going to need help from the coaching staff, and we'll see what comes of it. Can you blame the coaching staff? I don't know.

Things to change

Don't think about changing the starting rotation or the bullpen. They are fine. Of course the starting line up needs to be tweaked to reflect individual performances.

Something needs to change on this team. Both Maicer and Emilio HAVE to get better. We know Brett Lawrie WILL get better.

There are too many people on the team GEARED to swing for the fences. And of course, the lead off spot is dead because Jose Reyes is out until probably the end of June at the earliest. Kawasaki is not going to always have a .375 OBP -- he is far outperforming his position and will have to come down to earth. That means that one of Rajai or Emilio will have to step up and we know that Rajai will not be the one against RHP.

Perhaps now is the time to pull the plug on Colby, trade him with Bonifacio, and get a strong 2B in return. Bring in Anthony Gose, who is more of a contact hitter and can run. And get prepared to replace Kawasaki at SS as well as he is just due to slide.

Holy Resurrection! John Gibbons redux

Fired manager returns to the Blue Jays

Anthpolous and Gibbons in the ceremonial jersey giveaway
Rene Johnson / TorStar

Everyone in the baseball world was taken aback by the hiring of John Gibbons as the new manager of the Blue Jays. Even John Gibbons himself seemed to be out of words when he spoke of his hiring. And clearly, as much as when Cito's rehiring was out of the blue, this hiring was as well. Reviews of the hiring have been mixed, with an overwhelmingly positive bias in Toronto but a negative bias elsewhere.

In my opinion, Gibbons had his chance to manage the Jays and he failed. He went to a bench coach for the Royals for 3+ seasons and then ended up managing the AA San Antonio Missions last year.

The Jays and those who are happy about the hiring gloss the incidents with Hillenbrand and Ted Lilly. And there are probably other incidents out there that were unreported as well. His record as manager was 305-305, but his record should have been better than it was. Whether that's due to poor managing or bad luck is unclear, but his pythagorean win-loss should have been led to more actual wins.

2006 was by far his most successful year. With five regulars batting .300+ and nine players with an OPS over .800, (Overbay, Glaus, Catalanotto, Wells, Rios, Hillenbrand, Reed Johnson, Zaun!, and Hinske), and Roy Halladay, AJ Burnett and Lilly on the mound, the Jays were indeed formidable, and they wound up 87-75 but finished well out of a playoff spot 8 games back of the Detroit Tigers.

2007 should have been a better year for the Jays. They ended up 83-79, but the hitting went significantly downhill and the pitching went significantly better.

But 2008 is telling. The Jays started under Gibbons going 35-37 and finally, in Milwaukee, Gibbons was unceremoniously fired and replaced with Cito Gaston, who had a very veteran friendly management style. After that point in time, the Jays went 51-37 and despite an 86 win season, finished 4th in the AL.

People point out that Gibbons knew how to manage a bullpen. My experience is that he pulled pitchers too soon. The pythagorean win-loss was always higher than the actual results, and usually, I attribute that result to managing over pure luck.

And while the Hillenbrand battle might have been necessary, the Lilly one was not. Clearly both player and manager might have been frustrated blowing an 8 run lead in the 3rd inning, but the end result of a fight in the dugout tunnel was not the correct result.

And no one hired Gibbons once he was gone. His career went downhill. There are far more successful managers with colorful histories, such as Billy Martin, who could both get into fights and successfully manage a team. And there are other experienced managers out there who were capable of managing the club.

So, while the Sportsnet and some other Toronto outlets paints this in a positive light, I just can't. this guy is just mediocre, at best. 

People who are negative on the deal state that management really can't affect wins and losses anyway, and I don't buy that. Managers make critical decisions in lineups, bullpen matchups, pinch hitters and runners, defensive shifts, steals, hit and runs, and other in-game decisions.

Cito, for example, never used the running game and favored his veterans, while Farrell used stealth and the running game to generate runs. That is why the Jays did so well in converting runs despite the poor batting average and OBP. In another example, Farrell utilized the defensive shift extensively in order to save runs, and as a result, the Jays finished 2nd in MLB in defensive runs saved.

I'm not sure Gibbons managed his lineup very well either. In 2006, it was pretty consistent, in that the lineup usually was Johnson - Catalenotto - Wells - Glaus - Overbay at the start of the line up and Hill / McDonald-Adams at the bottom of the lineup.

But in 2007, the lineup was a hodgepodge. Rios - Wells - Johnson at the top of the order and just an irregular lineup throughout. I wonder how the players performed as a result of that. Well, it seemed like the team just couldn't put it together hitting-wise in 2007 as Wells, Overbay, and Johnson had significantly worse seasons.

It will be interesting to see what Gibbons brings to the table in 2013. He has been given alot of tools. The team has already pretty agreed that the top four of the lineup will be Reyes - Cabrera - Bautista - Encarnacion, with Lind, Lawrie, Rasmus, Arencibia (Buck), and Bonafacio / Izturis wrapping the lineup. Of course with Lind, Rasmus, and Arencibia being inconsistent, that part of the order will undoubtably change. Gibbons clearly has the tenacity to move the lineup around based on performance and will undoubtably ruffle sensitive feathers (think Rasmus) in doing so.

Certainly, Gibbons personality is much much different than Farrell. John Farrell seems to be an accountant out there, uncomfortable with his emotions, very much under control and not really having the ability to manage a large group of players. Gibbons on the other hand, even by this press conference, seems to be quite emotional and passionate. The players will need to get used to his style of leadership and passion.

It will be interesting to see how Gibbons manages the running game with speed being an incredible weapon this year with Reyes, Bonafacio, and Davis on the team (and Gose late in the summer). Both Gibbons and Gaston underutilized the running game, while Farrell might have overexploited it. I expect to see Rajai stay put a fair bit more and expect to see alot more discipline on the basepaths. Still, I hope to see about 120 stolen bases in total from the club next year, with Bonafacio, Reyes and Davis leading the pack. I hope to see Davis utilized late in the game for running speed especially if a Lind, Rasmus, or Arencibia gets on base.

It will also be interesting to see how Gibbons utlilizes the defensive shift, which John Farrell used extensively in 2012.

Who will Gibbons bring to him as coaches? Don Wakamatsu (bench), Dwayne Murphy (hitting), Bruce Walton (pitching), Rivera, and Walker (bullpen) remain on the club right now.

I suspect that only Bruce Walton will remain (he was bullpen coach under Gibbons), but that Murphy and Wakamatsu might be gone. That wouldn't be terrible news. Wakamatsu was fired from the Mariners reportedly for a fracas between him and Figgins. Who will Gibbons will bring in as base coaches. Will the Jays see Ernie Whitt return as bench coach? Maybe see Roberto Alomar on the field as a base coach? With Anthopoulos at the helm, one never knows, but in the press conference, he promised an answer in the next couple of weeks.

Well, the transformation seems to be mostly complete. The Jays have depth at catching which I think they'll use to hire their final bench player, another starter, or even an experienced 2nd baseman. The AAA minor league seems sufficiently stocked in the outfield with Gose, Sierra, Perales, and Nanita. D'Arnaud will catch. Hughes, McCoy, Goins/Woodward, and Cooper will be in the infield. The pitching staff will be a mixed bag to be sure, but expect Jenkins to start in AAA.

The "why" behind Anthopolous' move is pretty clear. Anthopolous, in securing the mega-deal and hiring a manager he knows quite well, is pretty much putting the season and the success of the Jays on his shoulders. By hiring someone who is a known, Anthopolous cannot blame anyone else but himself if the Jays do not succeed next year. He's putting that on himself, and that's an admirable thing.

What's clear is that there are more moves to come as this crazy off-season continues.