The 2001 Oakland Athletics

Are the 2013 Jays the 2001 Oakland Athletics? Who knows?

Jason Giambi.
Oakland started the season at 8-18 before going on
to get 102 wins for the season.

Jays start off 8-13. Are they done?

Rogers apologists like to look at the 2013 rendition of the Jays and say that's it's early. The fandom have all but concluded that this team is done and that drastic measures must be taken.

I took a look at the records of all playoff and likely playoff teams (those teams who would have made an enhanced wild card playoff) and looked for teams who were 5 OR more game under .500 after 20 - 22 games played and looked at the last 17 years of data (1996-2012) when a full season was played with the current division format seen.

Of 170 teams that would have made the playoffs in both leagues, there are 5 instances of playoff teams with 90 or more wins in a season who had a record of 8-13 or worse. That gives the Jays, if they were an average team a 3% probability of making the playoffs assuming 90 wins or more are needed.

These teams include the 2010 Atlanta Braves who started the season 8-13 before going on to win 91 games and a wildcard berth, the 2009 Colorado Rockies with the identical 8-13 record to win 92 and a wildcard, the 2005 Cleveland Indians (91 wins, 5th) and San Francisco Giants (91 wins, 5th). But the most notable comeback in modern memory is the 2001 Oakland Athletics.

The 2001 Oakland Athletics

On April 25, 2001, the Oakland Athletics dropped a 2-1 extra inning game to the White Sox to go to 7-14 on the season. The next game, they whalloped the White Sox 16-6 before losing 3-2, 7-6, and 3-1 to the Yankees over a three game sweep. Then they went home to host Buck Martinez's Jays on May 1 where they dropped a 5-4 affair and their record dropped to a dismal 8-18.

This was a team whose lineup at that point featured Johnny Damon (OPS .549), Frank Menechino (1.040), Jason Giambi (1.135), Terrence Long (.926), Eric Chavez (.742), Miquel Tejada (.748), Olmedo Saenz (.699), Jeremy Giambi (.556), and Ramon Hernanzez (.616).

In April, the A's starters had an (.288/.359/.460) line and a 5.83 ERA which improved massively to 3.10 after the All Star Break. This was a rotation of Mark Mulder (4.40 ERA), Barry Zito (4.58 ERA), Cory Lidle (4.96), Tim Hudson (6.35) and Gil Heredia (9.24). Gil was eventually replaced by Eric Hiljus.

The team then went on a 15-5 tear, sweeping the Jays in Toronto, the Yankees and the White Sox. But even then, the team hovered around the .500 mark until the All-Star break - the team was 44-43 and 19 games back of the high-flying Mariners.

The team went 58-17 to wrap the season with 102 wins. Jeremy Giambi ended up batting with an OPS of .841. They still managed to lose the division to the Seattle Mariners but made the playoffs before losing to the Yankees in the ALDS.

The Jays are actually a good team

On paper, this team certainly has the capability to turn it around. The Jays' offense is sputtering but the starting rotation has shown their talent now to keep the Jays in the game and the bullpen has been surprisingly good as well. Now it is up to Gibbons and the offense to start moving and start scoring more than 4 runs a game on a consistent basis and to start winning close games.

Someone has to step up to the plate to become the leadoff hitter and Gibby has to leave them there. I don't like the momentary lineups based on a streak of 3-4 games. That just shakes up the hitters and shows that Gibby is panicking. Gibby needs to decide on a leadoff tandem to start the game leading off and just leave it as it is. Those person is the duo of Bonifacio and Davis (Davis faces LHP, Bonifacio RHP).

Bonfacio is a lead off hitter and has played the majority of his career leading off. With Jose gone, put Bonifacio in the #1 spot and let his true talent show. Emilio is NOT A BUM, but he is certainly lacking plate discipline right now. His career walk / strike out ratio is close to 1:2 (not the 1:6 it is currently). Let him play against RHP, and let Rajai play against LHP. The speed will and the stolen base will be factors, which will only help Cabrera, who should be left in the #2 hole.

These are really your best options, and putting Kawasaki in the leadoff spot is insanity. His numbers are rapidly coming down to earth.

Let the long term numbers play themselves out and give your players a chance to gel. Don't hit the panic button *yet*. Wait a week.

August 3: Jays 4 Oakland 5

Brett Cecil serves home runs, Jays create drama in the 9th, keeps me awake

The Athletics of Oakland brought up their star AAA pitcher David Straily to make his major league debut against the struggling Blue Jays. The 23 year old from Springfield (home of the Simpsons), Oregon was a 24th round draft pick by the As back in 2009, and he made a name for himself, hailed as the pitcher with the most strike outs in all of baseball (he has 175 strikeouts in 138 innings). And given the Jays propensity to like to swing and their flailing offense as of late, it looked like another troublesome outing for the Jays.

There was hope that Cecil would be able to keep the ball in the yard tonight in pitching friendly Oakland but with three losses in a row and a complete lack of run support in his outings, things were not looking good on paper for the Jays. Then again, until the return of Bautista and Lind, things are not going to look good on paper for a while.

If I was betting, I'd take Oakland and the under.

Well, the game started off ominously enough, with Lawrie grabbing the bottom of his right rib cage in the top of the inning after fouling off a ball. He struck out, then took himself out of the game. The last thing the Jays need is another regular on the DL. Certainly, given his propensity to dive into television bays and be very intense, it isn't surprising (in fact, the hurt rib cage is due to his dive into same camera bay -- he is day to day).

Cecil looked promising enough in the 1st inning, facing the minimum. Then, Cecil gave up a single in the 2nd to Brandon Inge to score Cespedes from 3rd, but got out of the inning with a double play. Then in the third inning and fourth inning, Cecil gave up bases empty home runs to Johnny Gomes and Chris Carter. And in the the fifth, the As tacked an another through a sacrifice fly. Apparently, Gose didn't remember that Rasmus was the centerfielder that night and they ran into each other, both determined to attempt to throw out the runner at home (which at 320 feet out, isn't going to happen). Thankfully Rasmus caught the ball. The damage could have been much worse for Cecil, but three double plays were turned, two on the ground and one to finish the 5th as Mathis nailed Johnny Gomes trying to tag up on the throw. Cecil gave up 4 runs, all earned, over 5 innings. He gave up 9 hits, threw 66 pitches and struck out and walked one. I think Farrell gave up on Cecil after 5 despite his low pitch count so that they could keep the game close.

When Cecil leaves a fastball up, the As are all over it. That control problem is what kills Cecil. If he can keep the fastball down and away, he will be successful. It's that fastball left up over the zone that kills Cecil. Batters will tee that up every time because his fastball just isn't isn't fast enough to fool anyone.  

Straily looked very good, not great, but the Jays gave up when Mathis struck out (for the 2nd time) to finish the bottom of the fourth. Straily threw six innings, gave up 5 hits, struck out 5 and walked 1 over 102 pitches over six innings. The Jays strategy was to let him throw and see pitches, and Straily (understandably) was a little bit off, but he threw retired six in a row and struck out 4 of his last 7 outs. The Jays then went hitless in the 7th, 8th looking terrible against Balfour.

But then things fell apart for Oakland and closer Cook in the 9th. The Jays started the inning with two strikeouts and were clearly on the ropes. Then David Cooper and Rajai Davis singled, and it looked like things were over when the ump called back runners by calling a phantom foul ball when it was clearly a passed ball. This might have riled up Cook enough, as Mathis fought back from an 0-2 count and hit a home run just over the wall in left-center to tie the game. Wow. Cecil is off the hook for the loss.

Farrell put Oliver and Janssen on to pitch the perceived end of the game tonight to give them a little bit of work as they hadn't pitched in over a week. Janssen came on to pitch a 1-2-3 ninth, tossing a beautiful cutter to freeze Derek Norris in a full count to end the frame.

Brad Lincoln came on in the 10th and struck out the first hitter, with a nasty slider. But a single to Weeks and a walk with one out, followed by a wild pitch forced Lincoln to load the bases and hit to a dangerous Josh Reddick, who struck out. With two out, Brandon Moss grounded out to Escobar, who bounced the throw to first, making Yan Gomes (on for Cooper) make a terrific play to record the game-saving out.

The Jays did nothing hitting in the extra frames, except for the 12th with a one out single by Visquel followed by a double by Colby Rasmus, but Omar, running 270 feet, got thrown out at home despite the ball getting away from the the left fielder who normally plays first base. Johnson grounded out to end the inning in the 4-4 tie. Then, Colby was taken out of the game in the bottom of the 12th presumably for some type of injury, (the groin), forcing the pitcher to bat in Colby's batting position.

Lincoln pitched a flawless 11th, 12th, or 13th, perhaps making the Jays fandom feel a bit lighter about the trade, because you know a Cordero, Coello, Beck, or Frasor would have blown the game in the 10th or 11th. Very very nice.

But it was the 15th inning that did the Jays in. With Loup on the mound, Jamal Weeks hit a lead off triple to right, and Coco Crisp sac flied him home.

It was a very close call for the Jays, but I wonder if it is more demoralizing to lose a hard fought game in extras versus losing in regulation play.

The official injury report on Rasmus is that he is day-to-day with a strained groin. Lawrie's injury is related to his dive into the camera bay a couple of weeks ago -- ribcage pain, and he is day-to-day as well and not expected to be in the line-up.

The Jays need to bring in JA Happ to the rotation and send down one of the starters to long relief or back to AAA. Whether that is Cecil, Villanueva, or Laffey I am not sure. Happ has not been very good this year but should be the #5 starter. Many people point out that he was traded to be a starter, not a reliever, and Happ is needed to eat innings.

So, in the overnight, the Jays made a few calls to Vegas. Cecil indeed was moved down to Vegas to make room for Happ to enter the starting rotation, probably making a start on Thursday against Tampa. Andrew Carpenter, who wasn't being used, was also sent down to Vegas. Up came Chavez who will replace JA Happ in a long relief role.  I think it was a good move to move Cecil who just wasn't doing well and is the worst starter in the rotation right now. Don't expect Happ to be fantastic, though.

More exciting is the callup of Hechavarria who will replace Brett Lawrie at 3rd base. It was an interesting choice for the Jays but with only Visquel able to play the middle infield, the Jays wanted to get a look at his arm and his bat at the MLB level. Good luck, Adeiny! Anothopoulos calls his arm one of the best in baseball, and his hitting line in AAA for 2012 is .312 / .363 / .424 with 20 doubles, 6 triples, and 6 home runs -- not a power hitter. But with a full season of AAA experience, now is a good time to bring him up.

Well, today's lineup will look interesting. The only regulars left on the team are Yunel and Kelly Johnson. Likely the infield will consist of Hechavarria, Escobar, Johnson, and Cooper. Mathis will be behind the plate. It will be Gose, Davis, and Moises in the outfield. The bench is shortened to Gomes and Visquel, with Encarnacion DHing.

The key to the Jays winning now is to manufacturing a few runs and having a spectacular pitching performance. After the injuries to the pitching staff, the Jays needed an average of 6 runs a game to win. The Jays right now with the line up they have are highly unlikely to score many runs, so it is going to take spectacular pitching to win games.

August 2: Oakland 4, Jays 1

Jays can't score - tough outing against Colon

The Blue Jays are without Jose Bautista, JP Arencibia, and Adam Lind, and the walk came back to haunt the team.

It's difficult to win games when you walk people. Toronto leads the AL with 374, 90 more than league leading Texas. That's like giving up one more hit per game. And walks wear out the pitchers, forcing them to throw more pitches, not only to the player at bat, but at the next AB.

Alvarez walked 5 in 5 innings, but none of the walks that Alvarez threw resulted in runs. Alvarez's three earned runs happened in the bottom of the 3rd due to a single, wild pitch, single (to score 1) and a Josh Reddick home run.

Delabar came on in the 6th , and perhaps Oakland had seen alot of him in AL West play, but he looked shaky with two walks and a wild pitch, but got out of the innings without damage.

Happ came on in the 7th inning, and ran into trouble right away, giving up two walks and a single before giving up a bases loaded single to Brandon Inge. The ball was hit to short centre allowing Rasmus to preserve a second run from scoring.

As with most major league starters, the first inning is the 2nd hardest inning to pitch (the sixth is the hardest). JA Happ is no exception -- players OPS is .838 in the first inning, and he gives up .54 walks in the first inning pitched. It takes preparation to start, so when JA Happ is in the bullpen, he needs to prepare and be sharp for that relief appearance. But if JA Happ wants to win a place back in the rotation three things needs to happen: a starter must fail; Happ needs to be stretched out to be able to throw 80 or so pitches in a start; Happ needs to demonstrate that he's good enough to start a game. Well, Happ threw 51 pitches in yesterday's appearance over two innings and 49 pitches 10 days before that, and just hasn't been very good.

On the offensive side, the Jays couldn't put anything together against Colon, sprinking 7 singles over 8 very good innings pitched by the veteran. The Jays only got runners to scoring position in three innings, and their best hope before the 9th was in the 2nd inning when the Jays loaded the bases with two outs, but Rajai hit into a ground ball to end the rally.

The Jays did threaten in the 9th. Moises Sierra got his first RBI as he beat out a double play ball to score Cooper who hit a double into the gap in left to start the inning. Then Lawrie got a single to put the tying at bat in Colby Rasmus on board. Colby hit into a fielder's choice at 2nd to end the game.

With left-handed Doolittle (not their closer) on the mound with one out, I thought the Jays made an interesting choice in batting Moises for Gose. This forced the As to go to their closer righty Ryan Cook to get the final two outs. Now Moises bats right and Gose bats left, and the choice to bat Moises to get a righty-lefty matchup makes sense.

But when you look at the numbers, Doolittle's numbers against lefties are reversed: against lefties he's sporting an OPS of 1.006 while against righties, the OPS is .394. And, Doolittle is a rookie. So, why force the closer to come on who has a fairly equal OPS against righties and lefties at around .490. Sure, Cook walks people at a rate of .5 / inning but he's a far better pitcher.  

But why force the situation? By the numbers, the lefty in Gose should fare better against Doolittle, and Gose has speed. I just think this was the correct choice given the situation. You want to leave in Doolittle, who was struggling, as long as possible, and to force in your closer takes away the opportunity to win.

The Jays are at the lowest point of the season so far, at three games below .500 and 5 and a half out of the 2nd wild card. They are without three of their bigger bats, and they are playing in a pitcher's park. The Jays are a home run hitting team, but they have to manufacture runs on the west coast ballparks. To do that, the players need to relax and not feel so much pressure to perform (Lawrie says there is no pressure) with the injury outages. I think if they can put one win on the board tonight or tomrorrow in Oakland, they'll win the next game too.