Would the Jays be contending now but for the injuries?

Could the Jays have won 4 more games of the last 29 with an intact lineup? Sure. Does that make them a contender? Maybe.

Listening to Wilner's the Blue Jays talk last night, Wilner believed that "absolutely, the team would be contending right now" if the Jays were not injured. He stated that since the Jays lost Bautista, the team went 11-18.

Let's say that instead of 11-18, they went 15-14. Where would they be in the standings today? On July 16, the Jays were 45-45 (now 56-63), and they were two games back of Detroit (47-43) for the remaining wildcard spot.

Okay, without Bautista, they got swept by the Yankees, but then swept the Boston Red Sox. On Sunday, July 22, the Jays were 48-47, but three games out of a wild card behind the Orioles at 51-44. It's safe to say that the results in the Bronx would not have changed as the Jats lost 6-0 and 6-1. Bautista's bat would not have been a factor.

For the Oakland series at home, July 25th was the last day that we saw Adam Lind and JP Arencibia. The Jays missing those three in the line up would have had no effect on the outcome (The Jays sans Bautista would not have come back from a 8 run disaster by Romero nor a 7-2 decision the day before). So at the end of the Oakland series at home on July 26 (a game that they won), the Jays record was 49-49, 4 games back of Oakland for the final wild card spot. No change to the Jays record thus far purely due to injuries in the starting lineup.

The Jays then won two of three against the Tigers on the weekend series and lost 4-1 on the Sunday game with Cecil pitching against Fister. Without Arencibia, Lind and Bautista, it's safe to say that this loss still would have happened -- the Jays only threatened in the 3rd and 4th inning in this game and the batters up were regulars. So as of July 29, the Jays record is still unchanged at 51-50, 4 games back of the Angels for the final wild card spot.

So, let's be clear. Before the road trip to the west coast, on July 30th, the Jays were 4 games out a playoff spot with a record of 51-50, and there are no games that the Jays really would have won with Bautista, Lind, and Arencibia in the lineup. They either lost by too many runs or weren't due in the lineup to comeup in situations with runners on base.

Anthopoulos therefore would have made the same moves at the trade deadline.

The West Coast has always been particularly hard on the Jays, and with the trade of Snider, the offense really started to lag at this point, and with the Jays without Arencibia, Lind, Bautista, and now Snider out of the lineup, it's safe to say that perhaps the Jays would have won the finale (which they lost 5-3) as there were many opportunities for the Jays but the wrong bats were up. Seattle had just come off of a sweep of Kansas and were playing well. Still, the Jays should have won one game in Seattle. This puts the Jays at 52-52 going into Oakland for the four game series, now games back of Oakland.

So, now the Jays in Oakland and in the first game they lost 4-1 against Alvarez. Cooper went 1-3 (in place of Lind, Gose went 1-4 in place of Bautista, and Gomes went 0-4). Perhaps two hits would have been added by the senior jays. I think they could have won this game as they were threatening a few times where Bautista / Arencibia would have been at bat instead of Gose / Gomes. The Jays win this one if their line up was intact.

The August 3rd game was the 15 inning affair where the Jays lost Lawrie and Rasmus and was the breaking point truly for this team. Still, I will put this in the loss column for the Jays just because I don't think the Jays get out of Oakland with less than one loss. So the Jays go 3-1 in Oakland instead of 2-2, and the Jays are 55-53 out of Oakland (Oakland is then 57-51). This puts the Jays two game out of a wild card spot going into Tampa.

Tampa has never been good to the Jays (7 years since they won a series there), so I am going to put them 1-2 in the series instead of 0-3 (I think the Jays beat Cobb on the Wednesday night game). Jays are 56-55 out of Tampa (who are then 58-53) and are still only three games back of the wild card spot.

Time for a reality check -- It's reasonable that the Jays would go 5-5 on the road. Oakland did not play very well, and the Jays should have taken that series. And winning 2 of 6 against Seattle and Tampa is reasonable.

The Jays then go home to face the Yankees in last weekend's series sans Lawrie, Rasmus, Bautista, Arencibia, and Lind. The Yankees would have won the opener anyway as they won 10-4. The Jays probably don't take Saturday's game either. So, the result of this series remains the same at 1-2. Jays would by 57-57 after New York, 4 games back of a wild card (Tampa would be 61-53, Baltimore 62-53). Also ahead of Toronto: Oakland (60-54), Detroit (61-54) and the Angels (60-55).

This takes us to the current series. It's safe to say I think that the Jays win Tuesday night's game (they lost 3-2) as they were threatening several times and couldn't convert. This puts the Jays right now going into tonight's game at 59-58, 5 games back of Baltimore, 3 back of Tampa (62-55), 2.5 back of Detroit (63-55), 1.5 back of the Angels (62-56) and 1/2 game back of Oakland (60-56).

So, without the injuries, I beleive that the Jays get one win back from each of Seattle, Oakland, Tampa, and Chicago. Instead of the Jays being 55-62, they are 59-58, three games back of a wild card. And I think that this number is bang on. They were .500 going into the Baustista injury and the improvements that the team made at the deadline would not have drastically improved this number.

At the trade deadline, Anthopoulos gave up on the Jays by not adding a good (sorry, Happ) veteran arm to the rotation while other contenders did. He did not believe that the Jays were a contending team being 4 games back just before the Jays left for the west coast.

When you look at the standings today, even with the four extra wins, the Jays would have needed to get by four other teams who would still be doing better than them. Detroit or Tampa are projected to have 87 wins and that's the magic number (Probably it is 88). For the Jays to hit that, they would have needed to go 28-17 against a very difficult schedule. Not impossible, but not likely either.

Wilner would call a team 3, 4, even 5 games out of a wild card a contending team. But given the number of wins they would have to take to make the wild card and the teams that they would have to pass, I would not have called them a contender on July 16th, and I wouldn't have called them a contender today even with 59 wins.  

So yep, blames the injuries for the Jays woes. It's the sad truth, but even without the injuries to the starting lineup, the Jays probably would not be contenders.

Mike Wilner: Eternal Optimist

Rogers Shill, positive guy, or none of the above.

Let me say off the top that I like Mike Wilner. He is an essential piece of the radio broadcast for the Jays and connects the fans to the game. He hosts the pregame show on the Fan Radio network, and he hosts the Blue Jays talk after the game. Today, he writes daily blogs on the Jays. Up until the beginning of this year, you were able to comment on his blogs and he would usually respond if your opinions were thoughtful enough.

Wilner isn't a baseball guy, in that he wasn't a former major leaguer, but he brings great knowledge of the game which he uses to his advantage when arguing with the fans. And he's pretty smart. The knowledge, enthusiasm, his love for radio, and dedication will bring him a play-by-play job in the coming years, and I think he'll do well. What I like about him is that he is usually "rational and reasonable" and usually doesn't make statements that are completely unfactual.

Normally, on the Jays Talk, he instills calm to the Blue Jays fandom, assuring them that indeed the sky is not falling, and when the team is doing really well, reminding the fans that it's a long season.

Now, with his blog (found here), his Wilnerness no longer responds, and this leaves fans to leave comments at will without fear of reprisals. Comments on the blogs include a wide assortment of opinions such as this gem:

"Professor Wilmer's comments are hardly worth taking seriously.  I could provide a list of the crazy things he has said over the years.  But, we all need a job."

So the question is, is Mike a shill for Rogers Media, a positive guy, or a realist? Mike himself will argue that he's a realist.

Mike learned the hard way that improper behaviour will get you censured, as he was "suspended" for a weekend back in June 2010 for an exchange with Cito and perhaps the blog post he posted later was Rogers' breaking point. He was pretty openly critical of Cito, as were alot of fans.

But it seems lately that Wilner is really really positive about the Jays, to the point where there are alot of people commenting on the blog about it. When you listen to the Blue Jays talk, he points out (today) that they are "only 5.5 games out of a wild card" and comments today that the Jays are likely to win 3 of 4 in Oakland (yesterday) when that series starts tonight. He accuses fans (via Twitter) of getting off the bandwagon when people tell him that the team won't make the playoffs.  

You can be a realistic fan of the Blue Jays, but facts are facts. There are 57 games left, and the Jays have to win more games than four of Boston, Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa, Oakland, and California. Likely the Jays will need to win at least 37 of the last 57 games. The Jays are short three strong bats, and the starting pitching hasn't been fixed and won't be until Brandon Morrow and another free agent comes in to fill the top of the rotation.

In his homage to Travis Snider, Wilner wrote: "I'm going to miss Travis Snider a lot, and I hope he becomes the star so many Blue Jays fans hoped he would become. And I'm going to hope that Brad Lincoln - and Anthony Gose, who appears to have been given the keys to a full-time spot in the outfield from here on out - reward Anthopoulos' faith and become big parts of what's going to be a very, very good Blue Jays team very, very soon."

I wish that Wilner would tone down on the positive rhetoric and be more realistic. You can be a great fan of the Jays and be realistic on the fact that they probably won't make the playoffs. It seems that, especially this year, he is overly optimistic. I think that some of the optimism is just his personality but that some part of it too is Rogers' Media messaging.

And I think that's wrong. Jays fans are disappointed this year because the team is hovering within 3 games of the .500 mark, while the Orioles and Oakland are succeeding. They blame AA for not bolstering the starting pitching (for me, at the beginning of the season -- for others, at the trade deadline). I think that's a fair criticism. In my opinion, blaming AA for anything else is not right. Thames underperformed, especially in May. Snider was hurt, leaving a hole in LF. Adam Lind's nagging back injuries is another problem. Rasmus had a very slow start, as did Bautista and Arencibia. None of this could have been predicted from the preseason performance. Only in late June and July did the team experience a hitting resurgence based on Lind, Arencibia, and Bautista, only to have all three of them get injured. It's very difficult to recover when 3 of your starters go down in a week, as well as your closer and middle reliever. Add to that Romero's breakdown, and what can you do???

There just seems to be a disconnect between the fans and the message that Wilner is delivering which I think needs to be reconciled -- an acknowledgement from Wilner that things are not peachy-keen in Blue Jays land. A more realistic message and admission from Mike - that the Jays are very very unlikely to make the playoffs given the team makeup today and the teams that they need to pass, would reconnect Wilner with the fans. Otherwise, he just comes across as a Rogers shill, and I don't think Mike wants to be that.

Rogers Media and the Boo Jays

Blue Jays and Rogers Media: a connection you can't ignore

Many years ago, media companies began merging into oligarchies. In the United States, for example, General Electric bought NBC. AOL became AOL Time Warner. MicroSoft teamed up with NBC to form MSNBC. Viacom, who owned CBS, bought Paramount, which owned Canada's Wonderland, and for a while, you would watch commercials for Viacom properties while you waited 45 minutes to get on the Bat. Alas, I digress.

Rogers Communications inc. started in the early 1960s as a radio company based in Toronto, starting with CHFI (98.1 FM) and CFTR (680 News). By the late 60s, they expanded to television, and in the early 80s they expanded to Wireless (remember Cantel?).

Then, in the 90s, Rogers bought MacLean-Hunter, and finally, in 2000, they bought the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays haven't made the playoffs in the past 11 years.

Today, Rogers has really three divisions that are all tightly related: a wireless division (we all know Rogers Wireless and Fido), a cable division, and finally Rogers Media. Based on last year's results, Rogers Wireless is extremely profitable, with 3 billion in operating profits on 7.1 billion dollars of revenue based on 9.3 million subsctibers. Those of you who say your wireless bill is too expensive are right. The problem is that Bell and Telus won't lower their prices either (the oligarchy). Rogers Cable is pretty profitable too, with 1.6 billion of profit on 3.8 billion in revenue (of course, the competitors won't compete in Canada either) based on 3.75 million subscribers. And finally, there is the Media area, which has just 180 million dollars of operating profit on 1.6 billion dollars in revenue,

What is Rogers Media?

Well, they own and operate CityTV and OMNI (which is why you see commercials for CityTV while watching the Jays). They own 9 specialty channels (including SportsNet) and own pieces of four other TV stations. Television produces 41% of operating revenue in 2011. The Shopping Channel produces 16% of operating revenue as well.

They also produce 54 consumer, trade and professional publications including of course Chatelaine and MacLeans. Publications produced 17% of operating revenue in 2011.

And there's radio with 50+ radio stations across the country, including the beloved Fan590 and the rest of the Fan Radio network, but also 680 news in Toronto.

And finally, there is a division called Sports Entertainment, which are the Blue Jays and Rogers Centre which produced the final 10% of operating revenue.

So as a whole, the Blue Jays and Rogers Centre had about 160 million dollars of revenue of the total of 14.5 billion dollars of revenue, a little bit over 1% of the entire Rogers empire.

One point of all of this is that the Blue Jays operate as part of the great whole of Rogers, and the goal of Rogers, and therefore the Blue Jays, are to be profitable. The Jays are not going to operate at a loss. In fact, they are probably expected to have a profit margin similar to other divisions at Rogers Media. That precludes management from spending big bucks like the Yankees and Red Sox. In fact, the only other corporations that owns an MLB club is Nintendo's majority ownership of the Seattle Mariners and Lerner Enterprises' ownership of the Nationals. What this means is that the people responsible for the pursestrings of the Jays are not really connected to the Jays. The Jays report to Rogers Media. Rogers Media reports to Rogers Communications, and the Jays are really a small part (1%) of the entire picture.

The other point of this is the synergy that exists uniquely within the Blue Jays. The Jays broadcast on the Fan Radio network and on SportsNet exclusively, both Rogers properties. Opinions on the Jays are broadcast primarily on Jays owned media outlets. This stifles the independent voices of the club. Radio analyst Mike Wilner was censored for a weekend for criticizing Cito Gaston. For all other clubs, radio rights are given to a radio network who are free to make comments without fear of censure. The same is true for television rights with the exceptions of YES (Yankees). As a result, the Jays broadcasters are encouraged, whether directly or indirectly, to stay on message, and if they aren't, there is always the suspicion that they are. The Blue Jays radio network and SportsNet will prop up the Jays, as a positive outlook gets more customers, and more customers mean more advertising revenue for Rogers Media, which is the company's mission. Once again, the goal of the Toronto Blue Jays is not to win a World Series. It is to be profitable. Shi Davidi, Mike Wilner, and Scott Carson are paid shills of Rogers, as are the Blue Jays themselves. They're all part of the same club, with the same goal.

For myself, that means that I take everything that comes out of Sportsnet.ca, the Fan 590, or Sportsnet TV with a very critical eye.

Once you realize that the goal of the Blue Jays are to win profitably and that most of the opinions that you hear on radio and TV are just part of the Rogers empire messages, you might understand the workings of the Jays more. Alex Anthopoulos won't buy big talent because it isn't profitable in the short term to do so. The Jays will always sound better than they actually are because the television and radio outlets prop them up.