Were the Blue Jays doomed from the start?

What went wrong?

The Jays season looked promising enough: a great spring training at 25-7, with good performances by a number of starters, good performances by the starters, and a fairly healthy team, with McGowan the only culprit with a sore foot. The team was stronger than last year, with Brett Lawrie being the regular third baseman, a decent hitting Adam Lind, and a strong Colby Rasmus in center field. Bautista was back, and Encarnacion was also hitting well. Arencibia was back for his second full season, defensively much better. Anthopoulos went out and got proven bullpen in Darren Oliver, signed Casey Janssen to a two year extension, got back Jason Frasor, and acquired Cordero who had 37 saves for the Reds last year, and Sergio Santos who had 30 saves for the White Sox. Things were looking up.

And the fans bought into the hype too, buying 22% more tickets than last year (the rest of the league is up 4%) on the hopes of a team competing in the AL East vs a hurt Red Sox, a rebuilding Tampa Bay, and a mediocre Orioles team.

The team really received a one-two punch that did them in for the season. The one punch was losing three of their starters in one week, which I believe led to the demise of Ricky Romero due to the intense pressure for him to perform (the pressure he put on himself -- after the win at Miami on June 22, he has yet to win a game. The bats came to life however and left the team around the .500 mark with hope really slipping away game by game as they stayed roughly five games back of the wild card mark.

But the #2 punch happened on July 26th, when Arencibia broke his hand and Lind left the same night with a sore back. From that point, the team has hit a breaking point. Add to that outages by Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus and you have a team full of not-ready-for-prime time players to fill the spots. It is easy for good pitchers to pitch around a team when you have only four major league players in your line up. Snider's trade away didn't help team morale either.

Now the fans are blaming AA and Rogers for not spending the money on the Jays. Clearly, Rogers is afraid to sign blockbuster agreements. They dumped Vernon Wells' contract (fantastic move) and Alex Rios (good move). Bautista and Encarnacion's contracts are steals and most MLB analysts thing that those contracts are extremely good values for the Jays. They traded away Halladay. And I've explained in another post that the Jays activities represent about 1% of the total action within Rogers Communications, Inc, but the expectation is that they will be profitable. So, the fans are right. The only way that the Jays will spend some money is to build up the team slowly through value, and the team has indeed been making strides in that direction with their payroll slowly on the uptick to correspond with their revenue. The blame is fair, but do you want the Jays to be the New York Yankees? Do you want to spend an average of $63 for a ticket (current is $26)?

My view is that AA took a risk in not signing a veteran onto the pitching staff -- the rotation was too young, with three rookies and new rookies, and a fragile Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow. His gamble failed. A veteran might have not been a good value on paper, but might have stabilized the rotation. I can't fault AA with the initial bullpen choices. Having both Santos and Cordero imploding was not predictable -- it was just bad luck, and it took Farrell time to realize that Janssen and Oliver was up to the task of closer/setup after giving Cordero a reasonable amount of time to prove himself (and fail). Add to that Perez's season ending injury which complicated matters. The depth at relief also took time to resolve, and the Jays pretty much tried everybody on the AAA and AA farm to see if they were ready -- all kinds of relievers came up from AAA and went back down. Chavez, Beck, Carreno, Coello, Andrew Carpenter, Crawford, Pauley, Richmond -- none were ready. Finally, the Jays settled on Loup and had to trade for Lincoln, Delabar, and Lyon -- because no one from the farm was able to step up to the task in the bullpen. And on the starting rotation, Cecil and Laffey make decent #5 starters to replace Drabek and Hutchinson, but there really was no one of Morrow's calibre that was able to step up to the task.

On the hitting side, Lind failed until his return from AAA. He went on waivers and no one claimed him. No one stepped up to the task of being a star left-fielder, and just went it looked like Snider was up to stay, he was traded for the necessary relievers. There were slow starts by Rasmus, Arencibia and Bautista, and both Escobar and Johnson have be somewhat lacklustre. Only Edwin has really really impressed.

Let's face it though -- the injuries would have been insurmountable to any team. I am sure the Yankees would be on a major slump if they lost Cano (their best hitter), A-Rod, Texiera, Granderson, and Russell Martin. The injuries are the culprit here.

And it is clear that the depth of the farm is not there. Many have come up from AAA and AA to pitch and have failed, necessitating AA to go out and trade Snider and Thames. The AAA hitters who have come up have all failed to impress with the exception of Moises. Had the farm been ready with major-league ready relievers and hitters, the Jays would be all right.

So, you ask the question, did AA make bad acquisitions and overhyped the farm system, or did the players fail the Jays in their performances in the MLB? I would blame the players. The farm system has improved vastly over the years in their records and their independent ranks as prospects. But really, the end indicator of the value of a player is their performance in the majors. So, I can't blame AA for the farm acquisitions, but I will blame the players as a whole for failing to step up at the major league level.

In the end, the Jays season went wrong due to a vast and unheard of number of injuries. And the players really didn't step up before the pitchers went down in mid-June. Besides Anthopoulos acquiring a veteran pitcher in the offseason, I really can't fault him for doing anything wrong. And as long as Rogers continues ownership of the Jays, and they will for a long time, their spending will be conservative in nature. I really believe that the Jays will pull the trigger at the trade deadline if they believe they will make the post season -- the increase in ticket sales, playoff games, and ratings will recover the cost -- it makes economic sense to do so. But it makes no sense to Rogers Media to spend $150 million on player salaries when the team is only pulling in $160 million in revenue. Until that point in time, expect AA to stay the course and make spending decisions based on value, not on emotion.

August 5: Jays 6, Oakland 5

Jays remember that they can win, earn happy plane ride to Tampa

To win games against the tough pitching Athletics, John Farrell's Jays realized that they had to manufacture runs. With Laffey on the mound with a tough start against Seattle, the Jays would probably be in tough against Oakland today, but with Milone on the mound who has been struggling over his past few starts, the Jays had a chance. And with the near comeback on Thursday, the extra-inning heartbreaker on Friday, and the extra inning win on Saturday, you could see the confidence in the new Blue Jays, short Lawrie, Rasmus, Bautista, Lind, Arencibia, and Snider slowly return.

As well, through the trades, the Jays have learned that they can count on their bullpen again, with the addition of Brad Lincoln and Stever Delabar and the promotion of Aaron Loup, the Jays starting pitcher just has to keep it close and let the bats try to get to work.

The Jays started it off as aggressive as you can get with a Davis double. On the next play, with Davis running on the pitch, Gose laid down a bunt down the 3rd baseline which was fielded by the catcher. Rajai kept on running and beat out the throw home to take a 1-0 lead.

Laffey had a shaky 2nd, with a combination of single-double for Oakland to tie the game. The third was even more shaky, as Laffey left a fastball up and in, right into Reddick's wheelhouse, yielding a 3 run home run, to be behind 4-1 after 3.

But the Jays closed the gap right away as Edwin found his power stroke again and belted a 2 run homer in the top of the fourth, then had some luck in the 5th inning with two out. Rajai Davis popped up a pretty routine fly ball to short, but Rosales lost the ball in the sun, allowing Davis to reach. The Jays capitalized as Gose (with his second hit in a row) double Rajai to third, and Edwin loaded the bases with an intentional pass. Yunel then hit a two run single to put the Jays out in front 5-4. Kelly Johnson then hit a single to plate Edwin. The Jays ended the top of the 5th up 6-4.

Laffey ended up pitching 6, giving up 6 runs, 4 runs (all earned), throwing 95 pitches, 67 of them strikes -- a decent outing. Brandon Lyon came on in the 7th and gave up a run on a double-double combination, striking out the side. With a 1 run lead, Loup and Delabar pitched the 8th and KC Janssen closed out the game, with Loup and Janssen each giving up a walk.

So, the Jays end up splitting the series with Oakland.


A few things happened with the roster behind the scenes. Chavez was sent back down and Chad Jenkins was called up from AA New Hampshire. Chad Jenkins, 25, over two years with the Fisher-Cats, is 10-16 with 36 starts with an ERA around 4.5 and WHIP around 1.4. He is a starter, but I am thinking that his role is a long reliever to replace Chavez. Villanueva, scheduled to start on Tuesday has a personal issue, so we will see JA Happ pitch against Tampa on Tuesday. There is setback with Bautista who felt more discomfort in his hands while swinging, which means that he'll need to rest his hands more and have rehab starts before he is back. Frasor is slowly working towards his return.

And finally, Farrell expects to see Lawrie and Rasmus playing in Tampa on Tuesday. Hechavarria will remain with the team.

For the hopelessly optimistic, the Jays are 5 back of the last wild card spot (Oakland) with 54 to play. At this point in time the wild card winner will have 88 wins. The Jays will need to pass (and have better records) Boston, Tampa, Baltimore, the Angels, and one of Detroit or Oakland to make the playoffs. That means the Jays will have to go 35-19 and pass 5 teams to make the wild card.

The Jays will face Shields, Cobb, and Matt Moore during the three game series. Matt Moore is running a streak of 17 scoreless innings, while Alex Cobb has had 2 good starts. I am thinking that the Jays will take 1 of 3 and it would be great to see them take 2 of three to have a fairly successful road trip.

August 3: Jays 4 Oakland 5

Brett Cecil serves home runs, Jays create drama in the 9th, keeps me awake

The Athletics of Oakland brought up their star AAA pitcher David Straily to make his major league debut against the struggling Blue Jays. The 23 year old from Springfield (home of the Simpsons), Oregon was a 24th round draft pick by the As back in 2009, and he made a name for himself, hailed as the pitcher with the most strike outs in all of baseball (he has 175 strikeouts in 138 innings). And given the Jays propensity to like to swing and their flailing offense as of late, it looked like another troublesome outing for the Jays.

There was hope that Cecil would be able to keep the ball in the yard tonight in pitching friendly Oakland but with three losses in a row and a complete lack of run support in his outings, things were not looking good on paper for the Jays. Then again, until the return of Bautista and Lind, things are not going to look good on paper for a while.

If I was betting, I'd take Oakland and the under.

Well, the game started off ominously enough, with Lawrie grabbing the bottom of his right rib cage in the top of the inning after fouling off a ball. He struck out, then took himself out of the game. The last thing the Jays need is another regular on the DL. Certainly, given his propensity to dive into television bays and be very intense, it isn't surprising (in fact, the hurt rib cage is due to his dive into same camera bay -- he is day to day).

Cecil looked promising enough in the 1st inning, facing the minimum. Then, Cecil gave up a single in the 2nd to Brandon Inge to score Cespedes from 3rd, but got out of the inning with a double play. Then in the third inning and fourth inning, Cecil gave up bases empty home runs to Johnny Gomes and Chris Carter. And in the the fifth, the As tacked an another through a sacrifice fly. Apparently, Gose didn't remember that Rasmus was the centerfielder that night and they ran into each other, both determined to attempt to throw out the runner at home (which at 320 feet out, isn't going to happen). Thankfully Rasmus caught the ball. The damage could have been much worse for Cecil, but three double plays were turned, two on the ground and one to finish the 5th as Mathis nailed Johnny Gomes trying to tag up on the throw. Cecil gave up 4 runs, all earned, over 5 innings. He gave up 9 hits, threw 66 pitches and struck out and walked one. I think Farrell gave up on Cecil after 5 despite his low pitch count so that they could keep the game close.

When Cecil leaves a fastball up, the As are all over it. That control problem is what kills Cecil. If he can keep the fastball down and away, he will be successful. It's that fastball left up over the zone that kills Cecil. Batters will tee that up every time because his fastball just isn't isn't fast enough to fool anyone.  

Straily looked very good, not great, but the Jays gave up when Mathis struck out (for the 2nd time) to finish the bottom of the fourth. Straily threw six innings, gave up 5 hits, struck out 5 and walked 1 over 102 pitches over six innings. The Jays strategy was to let him throw and see pitches, and Straily (understandably) was a little bit off, but he threw retired six in a row and struck out 4 of his last 7 outs. The Jays then went hitless in the 7th, 8th looking terrible against Balfour.

But then things fell apart for Oakland and closer Cook in the 9th. The Jays started the inning with two strikeouts and were clearly on the ropes. Then David Cooper and Rajai Davis singled, and it looked like things were over when the ump called back runners by calling a phantom foul ball when it was clearly a passed ball. This might have riled up Cook enough, as Mathis fought back from an 0-2 count and hit a home run just over the wall in left-center to tie the game. Wow. Cecil is off the hook for the loss.

Farrell put Oliver and Janssen on to pitch the perceived end of the game tonight to give them a little bit of work as they hadn't pitched in over a week. Janssen came on to pitch a 1-2-3 ninth, tossing a beautiful cutter to freeze Derek Norris in a full count to end the frame.

Brad Lincoln came on in the 10th and struck out the first hitter, with a nasty slider. But a single to Weeks and a walk with one out, followed by a wild pitch forced Lincoln to load the bases and hit to a dangerous Josh Reddick, who struck out. With two out, Brandon Moss grounded out to Escobar, who bounced the throw to first, making Yan Gomes (on for Cooper) make a terrific play to record the game-saving out.

The Jays did nothing hitting in the extra frames, except for the 12th with a one out single by Visquel followed by a double by Colby Rasmus, but Omar, running 270 feet, got thrown out at home despite the ball getting away from the the left fielder who normally plays first base. Johnson grounded out to end the inning in the 4-4 tie. Then, Colby was taken out of the game in the bottom of the 12th presumably for some type of injury, (the groin), forcing the pitcher to bat in Colby's batting position.

Lincoln pitched a flawless 11th, 12th, or 13th, perhaps making the Jays fandom feel a bit lighter about the trade, because you know a Cordero, Coello, Beck, or Frasor would have blown the game in the 10th or 11th. Very very nice.

But it was the 15th inning that did the Jays in. With Loup on the mound, Jamal Weeks hit a lead off triple to right, and Coco Crisp sac flied him home.

It was a very close call for the Jays, but I wonder if it is more demoralizing to lose a hard fought game in extras versus losing in regulation play.

The official injury report on Rasmus is that he is day-to-day with a strained groin. Lawrie's injury is related to his dive into the camera bay a couple of weeks ago -- ribcage pain, and he is day-to-day as well and not expected to be in the line-up.

The Jays need to bring in JA Happ to the rotation and send down one of the starters to long relief or back to AAA. Whether that is Cecil, Villanueva, or Laffey I am not sure. Happ has not been very good this year but should be the #5 starter. Many people point out that he was traded to be a starter, not a reliever, and Happ is needed to eat innings.

So, in the overnight, the Jays made a few calls to Vegas. Cecil indeed was moved down to Vegas to make room for Happ to enter the starting rotation, probably making a start on Thursday against Tampa. Andrew Carpenter, who wasn't being used, was also sent down to Vegas. Up came Chavez who will replace JA Happ in a long relief role.  I think it was a good move to move Cecil who just wasn't doing well and is the worst starter in the rotation right now. Don't expect Happ to be fantastic, though.

More exciting is the callup of Hechavarria who will replace Brett Lawrie at 3rd base. It was an interesting choice for the Jays but with only Visquel able to play the middle infield, the Jays wanted to get a look at his arm and his bat at the MLB level. Good luck, Adeiny! Anothopoulos calls his arm one of the best in baseball, and his hitting line in AAA for 2012 is .312 / .363 / .424 with 20 doubles, 6 triples, and 6 home runs -- not a power hitter. But with a full season of AAA experience, now is a good time to bring him up.

Well, today's lineup will look interesting. The only regulars left on the team are Yunel and Kelly Johnson. Likely the infield will consist of Hechavarria, Escobar, Johnson, and Cooper. Mathis will be behind the plate. It will be Gose, Davis, and Moises in the outfield. The bench is shortened to Gomes and Visquel, with Encarnacion DHing.

The key to the Jays winning now is to manufacturing a few runs and having a spectacular pitching performance. After the injuries to the pitching staff, the Jays needed an average of 6 runs a game to win. The Jays right now with the line up they have are highly unlikely to score many runs, so it is going to take spectacular pitching to win games.

August 2: Oakland 4, Jays 1

Jays can't score - tough outing against Colon

The Blue Jays are without Jose Bautista, JP Arencibia, and Adam Lind, and the walk came back to haunt the team.

It's difficult to win games when you walk people. Toronto leads the AL with 374, 90 more than league leading Texas. That's like giving up one more hit per game. And walks wear out the pitchers, forcing them to throw more pitches, not only to the player at bat, but at the next AB.

Alvarez walked 5 in 5 innings, but none of the walks that Alvarez threw resulted in runs. Alvarez's three earned runs happened in the bottom of the 3rd due to a single, wild pitch, single (to score 1) and a Josh Reddick home run.

Delabar came on in the 6th , and perhaps Oakland had seen alot of him in AL West play, but he looked shaky with two walks and a wild pitch, but got out of the innings without damage.

Happ came on in the 7th inning, and ran into trouble right away, giving up two walks and a single before giving up a bases loaded single to Brandon Inge. The ball was hit to short centre allowing Rasmus to preserve a second run from scoring.

As with most major league starters, the first inning is the 2nd hardest inning to pitch (the sixth is the hardest). JA Happ is no exception -- players OPS is .838 in the first inning, and he gives up .54 walks in the first inning pitched. It takes preparation to start, so when JA Happ is in the bullpen, he needs to prepare and be sharp for that relief appearance. But if JA Happ wants to win a place back in the rotation three things needs to happen: a starter must fail; Happ needs to be stretched out to be able to throw 80 or so pitches in a start; Happ needs to demonstrate that he's good enough to start a game. Well, Happ threw 51 pitches in yesterday's appearance over two innings and 49 pitches 10 days before that, and just hasn't been very good.

On the offensive side, the Jays couldn't put anything together against Colon, sprinking 7 singles over 8 very good innings pitched by the veteran. The Jays only got runners to scoring position in three innings, and their best hope before the 9th was in the 2nd inning when the Jays loaded the bases with two outs, but Rajai hit into a ground ball to end the rally.

The Jays did threaten in the 9th. Moises Sierra got his first RBI as he beat out a double play ball to score Cooper who hit a double into the gap in left to start the inning. Then Lawrie got a single to put the tying at bat in Colby Rasmus on board. Colby hit into a fielder's choice at 2nd to end the game.

With left-handed Doolittle (not their closer) on the mound with one out, I thought the Jays made an interesting choice in batting Moises for Gose. This forced the As to go to their closer righty Ryan Cook to get the final two outs. Now Moises bats right and Gose bats left, and the choice to bat Moises to get a righty-lefty matchup makes sense.

But when you look at the numbers, Doolittle's numbers against lefties are reversed: against lefties he's sporting an OPS of 1.006 while against righties, the OPS is .394. And, Doolittle is a rookie. So, why force the closer to come on who has a fairly equal OPS against righties and lefties at around .490. Sure, Cook walks people at a rate of .5 / inning but he's a far better pitcher.  

But why force the situation? By the numbers, the lefty in Gose should fare better against Doolittle, and Gose has speed. I just think this was the correct choice given the situation. You want to leave in Doolittle, who was struggling, as long as possible, and to force in your closer takes away the opportunity to win.

The Jays are at the lowest point of the season so far, at three games below .500 and 5 and a half out of the 2nd wild card. They are without three of their bigger bats, and they are playing in a pitcher's park. The Jays are a home run hitting team, but they have to manufacture runs on the west coast ballparks. To do that, the players need to relax and not feel so much pressure to perform (Lawrie says there is no pressure) with the injury outages. I think if they can put one win on the board tonight or tomrorrow in Oakland, they'll win the next game too.